Keeping updated about events, etc.?

Discussion in 'Options' started by mizhael, Jan 18, 2009.

  1. Hi folks,

    As you all know, events are our friends for option traders. As a newbie, I am looking for websites and resources that can help me keep updated about coming events and potential analysis of trade ideas. Of course I do my own homework. However, frequently we also want to learn from other people about where they get events and then generate trade ideas. For example, out of those many earnings release in the coming weeks, are there websites that can help me identify which companies are potentially vibrant ones that will generate lots of volatility and which ones are good candidates for directional bets?

    Thanks a lot!
     
  2. For earnings, on Saturday I download and parse McMillan's weekly volatility numbers.

    http://optionstrategist.com/free/analysis/data/index.html

    I run that against the confirmed earnings releases for the upcoming week and determine the 1 week ROC (change) and delete all that are below an IV threshold of perhaps 50 or so (may be less in certain circumstances).

    If IV has inflated a decent amount, I check an option chain to see if there's some decent skew b/t the two front months (I'm a skew chaser). If there's 10-15 basis pts or more, I then check out Ivolatility.com to see what the IV range has been pre and post earnings for the past year in order to model the potential results of whatever strategy I'm using.

    It's a bit of work but it provides me with what I believe to be higher probability candidates when I'm chasing earnings plays.


    >> . For example, out of those many earnings release in the coming weeks, are there websites that can help me identify which companies are potentially vibrant ones that will generate lots of volatility and which ones are good candidates for directional bets? <<

    What I've written pertains to chasing the post earnings IV contraction. It guarantees no movement for directional bets which will suffer mightily with that post EA IV contraction.
     
  3. It depends on your perspective.

    They are your frends ONLY when you buy options. And buying options puts the odds of success firmly against you. You have to be very right to collect when buying options.

    One more point: You are not the only person who wants to buy options for an 'event,' Thus, they are generally over-priced, making it even more difficult to earn money when buying options.

    Mark
    http://blog.mdwoptions.com/options_for_rookies/