Hey Jas Thanks for your posts. The issues you have been dealing with have helped me understand some of my problems too. In the thought of 'crazy is doing the same things and expecting different results', two recent changes I've made.... I spent $100 on a spreadsheet program to track my trades. Thinking about what you have said, and looking at my spreadsheet... some things were obvious. I thought I had a pretty good DIY spreadsheet, but a professional one has helped me understand much more. I also started putting markers on my charts to indicate where a likely trade would be as the day progresses... and coded them for 'iffy' or 'high confidence' [like a tiny light green trendline for an 'iffy' long entry and a tiny dark green trendline for a 'high confidence' long entry] . So I'm sort of paper trading on my live chart. Committing with just a marker to places in the past I might have put on a real trade. Then as I watch the market unfolds, I see how in or out of sink with the market I am... and I find I'm becoming more selective when I place an actual trade. It's like I'm paying more attention... in a different way, and getting more feedback. I have more confidence when I'm in sink and then place a real trade. ....at least this is working for the present! At the end of the day I look at all my 'sim' trades which are still sitting on the chart and compair with the best trades the day offered. And the trades I actually took. It's revealing! Anyway, wish you the best and thanks for posting!
Great that you're making progress, Hooti ! What'd i say ? Actually nevermind what i said. Do you have an example of what you learned by looking at a spreadsheet of your trades ? TIA
Comments about with-trend versus countertrend trading, being selective... etc. etc. I have all those issues, up and downs too. One thing I saw right away was how poorly I was doing countertrend trading. The next thing that stood out to me was that... on reveiwing the day... I was taking trades, but missing the best trades of the day. And I could track my thinking in the process of that. So I'm beginning to change that. Someone on ET recommended the spreadsheet. http://tradingspreadsheets.com or google 'trading journal spreadsheet' I bought the $100 one, 'TJS pro'.... they have one that does multiple markets that I'm not doing... it costs more. I'm happy with it, it probably paid for it's self within a day or two. Have you ever done something like the 'sorta paper trading' I described? I've just plain paper traded... but doing it this way has just been a totally different experience. This way I get into that relaxed attentive space of papertrading... where losses aren't personal! When I am successful, I kind of carry that relaxed attention into my real trade. I am much more aware of what's going on instead of what I think should be going on! ...also I'm tracking my 'sorta papertrades' and learning from them. A double benefit. Another problem is that I've consistently reviewed the days chart afterwards... and seen how many 'perfect' set ups that I didn't even see real time. But when I paper trade I tend to see them. That really puzzled me for awhile. I observe it's because I'm more relaxed papertrading and not trying to force the market as I instinctive do when my money is on the line! So when I'm putting just my 'marker' down on the chart where I'd make a trade... my attitude changes. Hope that makes sense!
Most will say they understand Price action, but few "live it". Most of the time, Price will make "Secondary Low or High" (testing of previous low or high of move), this will either be start of a New Trend or a retracement back of old trend. In Elliot wave terms, the Secondary will be wave 2. So either by noticing the move that forms the lowest low or highest high to see if that was a previous long trend or short OR the Index has moved so many points that are normal for a completed swing can help one to figure out if market is due for change of trend. Another clue can be the EMA, by seeing the slope and only trading in the direction of the slope. I keep a ten day average of the day session range, so from a low to day session high is what this average is and a secondary pivot high is testing the high of the day, it might fail and I can sell and my risk wil be tight. One of your recent charts the EMA was flat and cutting thru the middle of most of the bars, this is chop, so unless you are selling highs, buying lows and using small targets and risk, best to avoid. Wait till you have several bars worth of slope before seeking a trade, let price come down to touch EMA and then buy above lowest high, place stop a few tics below the lows for protective stop. If this bar is too large than normal which increases risk, pass on the trade to see if a new lower high will form, often this forms this way to suck in the inexpereinced to buy too high. If trend has just started, can get for 5-10pts, but longer the trend duration, smaller the target. Maybe cut back your trading, shoot for a goal of 5/10pts and four trades max, and trade only first 90 minutes. If you can get good enough to make 2-300 a week, dozen weeks later, increase to a two lot. Keep track of breaking of pivots, if index breaks it by a few tics, chances are not enough volume to push it higher, but if price breaks pivot high by several tics, look for continuation. Watch out for really huge bars, often times next several bars will fit inside that big bar, never know which direction Price will go. I have always thought trendlines are better suited for 60 minute and beyond timeframes, too much false moves in smaller timeframes for me unless you have patience for false breakout, retracement, then enter order for original breakout. There are reasons why there are so many false breakouts, to cause lose for those who don't understand Price Action. When I watch Price bars, I constantly am looking where the "little guy is going to get screwed", cause there 95% of them are certainly doing a fine job.
Actually, I do the same as Hooti, I am marking all my signals on the chart as the day progresses. It is easier with 5 min tf, but one could do it easily on 2 or 3 min as well. It helps the focus, and at the end of the day you can evaluate more easily. I also take a snapshot of each signal and I collect them in folders and keep stats in spreadsheets. But you are much ahead of me, reading your journal, so you will get out of this slump. ----------- I agree with Handle123 on the pa and the small guys losses. Some of my signals evolved from the fact that I always got stopped out. may be look at your trade history again from this angle. just my 2 cents.
Thanks Handle, Pretty much every time i come across one of your posts i end up printing it. I do try to anticipate where stops are and think that way but haven't quite got it yet. Thanks for the tips . I'll be reviewing them some more.
I haven't done the mix of sim and real. If i made $$ on sim and i'd probably become more frustrated. I like what you're doing . It sounds like your on the right path. GL
Thanks CL, Do a search on Handle and read some his posts in different threads. He always is worth reading
I'm trying to incorporate the use of trendlines more. Looks promising but it's screwing with my head a bit. Blending it with price action is tricky. The PA needs to take the priority however sometimes a TL can be a good filter and indicate an entry may not be the best spot . My brain is on overload. Is it a failed breakout or breakout pullback ? Pullback in a trend or new trend ? I'm probably trying too hard to understand every move then get fatigued. When in doubt stick with trend and try to find my set ups and ignore the noise. And review after hours. Like Hooti said, i'm getting trades just not getting the good trades i should be. Might post more this weekend if i stumble onto anything good.
Arrived to office late so missed the early run up. 5 minute 20 ema too flat on some trades i took. 1 minute time frame they looked better. I need a bit more patience. As always, after the fact there were better entries. Still trying to digest a couple new ideas.