I think I'm not taking enough trades with the trend. One of my entry triggers is reversal bars. Lately i'm not taking them in the proper context. A bearish reversal bar in an uptrend is less likely to work unless there are other signs of a reversal ie 123 top or dbl top. I'm taking too many reversal bars out of context. I need more with trend entries. Why make it harder than it should be ? And more patience. 8 trades- zero wins. 6 trades on the short side. i'm relying too much on reversal set ups. Go with the trend. attached a couple trades i'm not embarrassed to post. I'll admit that with what i think i know i should be doing a hell of a lot better. Clearly i don't know as much as i think i do. Still learning- slowly.
jas, looking at your chart there I think you may benefit from these two threads: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113456 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=99283&highlight=AHG good luck, tihfa
thanks tihfa. Believe or not i've read them. The first probably a little quickly. The AHG is great and got me into to PA. The one thing anek kept saying was it takes lots of screen time. i keep telling myself that but sometimes i wonder.
I gotta laugh. I mean really what else can one do at times like this. Confidence issue in my trades. Trust myself more. i think i had some right ideas then i mucked it up with some crap. easy to see after the fact first trade i liked how i took a little heat at the beginning which is good for me. after that it fell apart. on some level i think i know what i should be doing but it's just not happening. geez i must sound like every other wannabe trader.
Not easy.. After watching the first 45 minutes I simply did not want to trade. At least you got some experience. The mental forces are strong. My mental psyche when I was doing well very different from lately.. I see more loss in the PA than profit.. Mainly because it takes much longer in low vol chop to get to relative safety per trade.
Solution ( i have brought this up before too) - move to eqities...its less choppy if you kow how to screen stocks... trends are very consistent - if you can pick the right stocks... Mu day trading screener only gave me 4 stocks out of the 9000 listed US equities...!! the ususal suspects are in the watch list/ small charts in on screen - a glance over them will check for any entries. Also, futures DO NOT TREND WELL - LEVERAGE causes PnL to move too much too fast - making it difficult to get the pulse of direction. If you switch - you wont be s Leaver/looser - but smarter. Must realize that ur a/c size, risk tolerance, experience are not in sync to handle the futures market - let alone whne Vix > 20. Its not a retreat, its a move thats appropriate to the situation. Attached is my screener result - pull up their 5/3 min charts and see fr ur self what i am talking about. Jas - keep steel cables in ur mind when you look at these. GL.
ah but i'm having so much fun with the NQ. I realize it's about the cash - equities, futures whatever it takes. I'll take a look at the charts of those stocks later today. Not quite ready to switch just yet though i'm pretty sure. I do need to refer more to the larger time frame , 3 or 5 min chart, more often after a trade to get proper perspective. i watch 30 minute as well. Thanks for the support JP and Rashid.
I can relate to where you are coz... i went thru the same shit phase...its not that anything changes whn you switch from NQ to equities or forex.. Basic realization is ture that trading is independent of assest class that you are trading...true ... but and its a big butt - that trading is only possible on trends/momentums. same security does not Trend everyday - all the time. This results in overtrading - taking semi confirmed setups ...solely because you are bored. Some securities like futures are not as liquid/ do not have finer price breaks(ie only .25pt per tick or 1 per tick) so you end up getting a higher ALPH on your trade (PnL). for an a/c as small as beginners they do not realize this. And get damaging performance. hit and misses, loose mental balance quickly. As a trader all you are doing is managing risk !! Risk tolerance is directly propotional to your a/c size and experience. So its like giving a cessena pilot to fly a boeing 747. He could fly it - but chance are that he will fuck up during landing or take off. Ability to control risk mid trade is very key as you need to adjust your exposure based on market movements. Trader should be adaptable to changing market conditions. Its a cliche however - you can make/ choose the markets/securities that your are adept with. Other way around comes ONLY with experience - a/c size has nothing to with that. The stocks that I have on the screener - have very basic filers on stock price size, unusual volume, Cap size, avg vol. etc. What its doing is - its bringing forward stocks on the move at that very moment - nothing more nothing less. you dont have to analyze whats in the news, how , why when, or predict which way they are moving. There will be a clear move in one direction and with VOLUME. Thats the key to tie these basic elements and create a situation that can be managed easily (size) and is not Unpredictable (trend with Vol). Don't think if you switch you have given up on trading - but learned an important chapter in your career - Picking the Race you KNOW you will Win. GL
More patience today, more looking at higher time frame and less counter trend trades. Once the opening range low was taken out i was just looking for shorts. There were a few areas where i thought about going long but decided to stick with the dominant trend. In the last hour looked like enough buying was coming in and some downsloping TL were broken so i took a long for a couple points. Only problem today was missing some solid entries. I'll review to try to figure out why i missed. Think it was i was seeing a set up but not seeing a solid trigger. Entering on a break out is not my favorite trigger. 5 trades + 6.75 pts
market blasted off in last hour. i hesitated on a long entry and missed it. The main lesson for me is :If the market doesn't do what you think it should be doing then it will likely do the opposite. Today for example the market tried several times to make a new HOD and failed. It then fell below a support level confirming a top but it wouldn't fall much further. If longs were nervous about their position the market should have fallen as they exited but that didn't happen. As price came back into the range it made one more attempt to go lower then quickly reversed paused and then shot up. This was more than a failed downside break out, which usually happen faster, this had a different feel and look but same result. makes sense to me. 6 trades + 6.50 pts. bailed to soon on my winning long. PnL attached