It seems like every jackass on elitetrader is calling the end of the world

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Sky123987, Nov 12, 2008.

  1. Every single post we read the majority of elitetrader'er are saying it is going to get much much worse, that this is GREAT DEPRESSION #2

    What i'm wondering is when we were in the bear market back in 2002 was every single elitetrader'er doing the same thing "calling the end of the world".

    The last bear market we sold off (11756 - 7200) / 7200 or 38%, Currently we are down (14175 - 8282) / 14175 or 42%. So if the market is good at pricing in all the news, would you say that it was equally bad in 2002 as it is now?

    Just wondering for those who've been around that long how was the mentality of the people on the forum. I'm wondering if everyone back then in 2002 was calling the end of the world, if so then perhaps elitetrader could be a good indicator of the opposite movement, or back in the bear market was everyone saying differently.
     
  2. Mvic

    Mvic

    I'm not sure if it is the end of the world or not but to get a sense of where we are and what could come next I think that a multi decade chart of MSFT says it all. We are sitting at a major inflection point one way or another.

    As I have mentioned more than once on this site I have been using the SOX index to guide me through many of the market moves and it has been leading the way with remarkable accuracy for the last year. Worth keeping an eye on.
     
  3. 11-13-08 02:39 AM

    Every single post we read the majority of elitetrader'er are saying it is going to get much much worse, that this is GREAT DEPRESSION #2

    What i'm wondering is when we were in the bear market back in 2002 was every single elitetrader'er doing the same thing "calling the end of the world".

    The last bear market we sold off (11756 - 7200) / 7200 or 38%, Currently we are down (14175 - 8282) / 14175 or 42%. So if the market is good at pricing in all the news, would you say that it was equally bad in 2002 as it is now?

    __________________________________________________

    Good Points . However, I was trading during the 2002 bear and it was no way, shape or form close to the dangerous situation we have now.

    You'r correct about the "Numbers" of the market, being down 42%. But read deeper between the lines.

    INVESTMENT BANKS ARE GONE!
    AMEX IS NOW A DEPOSITORY BANK.
    WE HAVE NO HOUSING BOOM!!!!!!

    I could go on and on and on about the over "Economic" enviroment that is far worse than 2002.

    Also, think about the Nationalized Auto's, soon to be.
    Think about Nationalization of our Banking System.
    Think about rate in which unemployment is mounting.

    To compare 2002 to now is like comparing Apples to Oranges.

    1929 is closer when you compare. You could look at the 80s as well.
     
  4. I just remember that on the exact day of the bottom, Maria Bartiromo did a segment on CNBC about how to make money shorting.
     
  5. Back when yahoo had posts in chronological order, I used to look up posts prior to 911 and after. From what I recall, there wasn't much insight, fewer posters. It was disapointing, I really had expected more.

    I didn't track stocks until spring of '03 but many are finding there way back to those prices.

    It seems that there must be some floor in stock prices on viable business's, even if it 2 or 3 dollars. Gees it doesn't sound like much when a pack of cigarettes cost 8 bucks.

    I was partial to the IBD method and they say stay away from stocks under $10, all the bargains were below that.
     
  6. Well, we're very close to the end of this party. Think about it: GM, Ford, Citi, Fannie, Freddie, AIG are all in single digits. MS is close. Other once big firms are gone: BSC, LEH, MER, WM.
    All the juice has pretty much been squeezed from the downside. GE, GS, MSFT aren't going to single digits.
    So, what's left is either sideways or up.
     

  7. -------> so if now is much much worse and far more dangerous then you are saying the mkt is NOT good at pricing in all the news
     
  8. HA HA HA HA HA HA
     
  9. it broke the october low, so the sp500 will now break the october low?
    and intel just issued that warning so tmrw likely even lower.
     
  10. what makes you say that they could easily be cut in half again. and put into a juicer to get ALL the huice off squeezing doesn't get it all out, you'd be surprised how much juice is still left in a lemon after being squeezed.
     
    #10     Nov 12, 2008