She noted improvement in private-sector hiring, strong durable goods orders and strong corporate balance sheets. She also reiterated her forecast for the Standard & Poor's 500 reaching 1450. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44346481/September_Might_Not_Be_So_Bad_for_Stocks_Cohen Aug 31, 2011 Could Abby be right? Even with the crazy rally in the last 2 weeks she still has 230 points to go until the end of the year. :eek:
Abby is staying the course. This is from last week: Take Goldman Sachs seer Abby Joseph Cohen. Wall Streetâs best-known equity cheerleader told an attentive crowd of Toronto financial analysts last Tuesday that the markets have surely priced in just about every dreadful outcome imaginable by now. Valuation, she declared, âis already reflecting a pretty gloomy scenario.â Indeed, the S&P 500 currently trades at between 11 and 12 times earnings, while the average in earlier periods of low inflation was above 18. At these levels, what are the markets saying about expected corporate profits and cash flow? Her answer: An âimplicitâ forecast that profit âwill not be growing for at least the next decade. That is possible, but itâs not probable.â http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...g-out-new-risks-to-the-market/article2196165/
True only if your variable (let us call it X) stays equal to what it has has been so far --- You know what X is, and I assume you are not stating it here on purpose. Your assumption is valid 5% of the time (in the best case).
It could be viewed that way, but what I found excessive is rather the high VXX, and the too fast fall in the latest bear leg. The rest rise is rather a proxy of a top/bear leg in volty. I have another hypothesis for how volty would "die out".
sharp rally = bear market rally this move in SPY is quite vertical, just like the other thrusts in Aug-Sep 2011. similarly, we should go down sooooon. probably won't be retesting the bottom for a few months as there are a lot of pessimists out there.
>1450 0 0% 1450 - Cohen forecast 2 8.00% 1350 - Mid (Cohen's and Goldman's) 4 16.00% 1250 - Goldman's revised forecast 5 20.00% 1150 - Goldman's uncertaity based model 3 12.00% 1050 - ~2011 Lows 3 12.00% <1050 8 32.00% Total: 25 votes 100%