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Is this pull back the start of a bear market?

  1. any of you guys think this is the start of a bear market? Im thinking there is a bounce at the 200 dma on the s&p but who knows if it lasts. Just wondering what some of my old friends think.
     
  2. 200dma on what time frame and which specific market (price action) ???
     
  3. no, its just a blip. Interest rates need to be 8% on the long end.
     
  4. I doubt this is the start of a full blown bear market, but I wouldn't be surprised about a couple of months consolidation with high volatility swings.

    Hes probably referring to the S&P that hit the 200DMA on the daily TF and bounced.
     
  5. Well. Bull market doesn't last forever.
    It is about time recession starts and start of bear market.


    These were the last recessions:
    1973
    1981
    1990
    2001
    2008

    It happens every 10 years.
    So this year is the appropriate year for recession.

    during the start of bear market, there are lots of opportunity to earn money.
    towards end of it, market becomes quiet and hence difficult to earn money.
     
  6. Inflation rising, rates falling/yields rising, markets will need to adjust for this new regime under the premise that the FED may not do as much to save them this time.
     
  7. Why differentiate between bear market and pullback....a bear market just looks like a pullback if you look at the yearly timeframe..
     
  8. Interest rate increase will cause the US$ to go up. IMO it's a head fake, Trump wants more exports, the dollar needs to be low. As we know the markets are overbought and a pullback is overdue.
    Now if there is another shoe to drop, that's another story...
     
  9. Doubt we'll ever see that. With the copious amount of debt issued at low rates, no way we can afford to service it at 8%. We'll see hyperinflation and/or severe currency debasement before 8% long rates.
     
  10. WTF The pompous talking head on bloomberg is blaming greece lol
     
  11. But the shoe has already dropped -- and it costs $1.5 Trillion dollars. That'll put a pinch on your monetary value, sure as shootin'!
     
  12. %%
    Most likely right, on blip .QQQ/tech stocks could easily make new highs; DIA/DOW went up so far + fast in JAN l, i thought we may get a good or severe correction in JAN . So DOW/DIA could easily turn bear+ i have never seen the media hype/promote DOW like last year.Payday someday.:caution::cool: NOT a prediction.
     
  13. %%
    True, mostly;
    except Bear markets tend to trend ,go down much more/average than 10-25% correction+ much longer, in time. See 10 or 20+ year chart= big difference.:thumbsup::cool:
     
  14. This is nothing. It will be a lot more once it drops ...