Trade Date: Sunday, May 26, 2019 Trade Time: 8:12 p.m. - 8:30 p.m. Rationale: Instantaneous Moving Average crossing above the Fluctuating Trendline from the lower half of the short-term price ranges. Pros: Longer-term Trendline is bullish Cons: Short-term and Intermediate Trendlines are sloping downward Expiry Outcome: In-the-money Analysis: With the Short-term and Intermediate Trendlines sloping downward, it would not have been unreasonable to expect the Instantaneous Moving Average and Fluctuating Trendline to also turn south and come into alignment with the red pair, which made this a risky trade. However, an argument can be made for assigning the greatest weight to more immediate factors in the short term, which might have justified this action. Consequently, there needs to be an ongoing evaluation as to whether this argument is valid, and if so, to what extent.
Trade Date: Monday, May 27, 2019 Trade Time: 12:20 a.m. - 12:40 a.m. Rationale: Instantaneous Moving Average crossing below the Fluctuating Trendline. Pros: Short-term and Intermediate Trendlines are sloping downward; all activity taking place below the Longer-term Trendline Cons: N/A Expiry Outcome: In-the-money Analysis: This is a hypothetical trade that I would have made (inside the yellow circle) except that the IQ Option platform was for some reason limiting me to a five-minute contract at the maximum and I wanted an interval of at least 15 minutes before expiry based on past price patterns. A few minutes later the platform was allowing trades of much longer duration, but by then, conditions were no longer structured for the trade. Consequently, the only profit I will enjoy from this opportunity is the return provided by my OANDA account...
Trade Date: Monday, May 27, 2019 Trade Time: 1:16 a.m. - 1:22 a.m. Rationale: Instantaneous Moving Average crossing above the Fluctuating Trendline Pros: Short-term and Intermediate Trendlines are sloping upward; all activity taking place above the Longer-term Trendline, which is slightly bullish Cons: Candlesticks have breached the upper bands of the short-term price range envelopes Expiry Outcome: In-the-money UPDATE: Immediately enter a second long position due to all conditions remaining the same and their obviously being a strong trend in effect.
Following a third buy the situation shortly thereafter demanded entering a short position. The reason for this is that the Instantaneous Moving Average dipped below the Fluctuating Moving Average following contact with the first (dotted) upper band of the outer price range envelopes, where (statistical) resistance is believed to become much more significant. This move reduced the loss that would have originally been experienced/suffered by 87%...
When the Instantaneous Moving Average crossed back above the Fluctuating Trendline, since nothing else had change and price was no longer up against statistical resistance, it made sense to enter a fourth long position... I'm going to stop the analysis here and simply trade the system, since it appears to be working as anticipated.
When trading stocks, I was never one to “buy in” when it came to the idea of “averaging down” (i.e., purchasing additional units of a stock I already held as the price dropped to decrease the average cost per share.) However, when it comes to trading Forex binary options based on what I call Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), a twist on the concept of averaging down makes a lot more sense to me. The reason for this is that NPP is based not only on identifying trends, but also on recognizing typical price ranges. For example, suppose a currency pair is purchased at the border of its typical price range as it begins to regress toward the mean, but then suddenly reverses direction and veers even deeper beyond the statistically defined outer limit of its "assigned" domain. The odds of its finally making an about-face and reentering the region in which it normally operates becomes greater with each inch of territory it traverses in that “wrong” direction. Consequently, binary option contracts purchased at such levels are likely to make up for any losses incurred from contracts purchased earlier (at lower levels) if the pair is given enough time to grow tired of resisting the inevitable to finally begin giving back some of the ground gained during its atypical journey...
If it is indeed the case that IQ Option is still able to accept U.S. citizens among its clientele, I will begin trading via the Cyprus-based broker in June (God willing). I prefer their platform much more than that of Nadex, and am especially pleased with the fact that I alone control how much money I wish to risk, anywhere from $1 to $5000 per trade, which gives me quite a bit of flexibility.
You can't legally trade with this bucket shop if you're a US national. They are not US licensed/regulated. Throw your nickels away.
Big Con with IQ Option Platform... Chart settings seem to change whenever they feel like it, and thus far, I haven't found any way to force the platform to maintain the configuration that is most to my liking.