Stoney I just moved to 50 percent cash and am also long QID as of Friday. The foundation is crumbling. On up days, the breadth is awful. This gas price thing is going to hit hard and also the coming collapse in housing. I don;t think we have seen the tip of the iceberg that is coming in housing. Appraisers jacked up prices because they all wanted business from loan agents. This was a ponzy scheme. Actual wages, except for bigwigs, have fallen over the past 20 years. There is no basis for housing to have had this run. This is a major bubble. I see 40 percent declines in many markets like San Diego, Las Vegas etc. I was bullish due to corporate balance sheets but so many factors have changed my opinion that we are headed for a fall. Dow 10,000 is a distinct possibility by 2009.
I know Trader, i know. Everyone is like just ride the direction it will be so easy to change, it's a tougher mental picture for me. I am an absolute top and bottom ticker they're precious few of us around anymore. >> I am considering a few names as individual short opportunities these are big stocks and won't take down anyone speculating. I am looking at AKAM closely now with an eye on MSTR, and a few health concerns. More to come. ~ stoney
midlifeguy we share that mid life thing unfortunately have you noticed the break down of the enthusiasm for financials? Interesting. Chase today went neg. on them. Financials often lead the market. What's next? gas up- Transports should diverge soon. Tues CPI, Wed Housing Starts, Fri some consumer number I think and an options expiration = BIG FALL. The question is if this unfolds do we take our chances with an individual stock or two? AKAM is just sitting there like a bird on a nest and I want to shake that tree. Is it anger that my mother owns it and I don't and she enjoyed that incredible ride or just good chart reading? It looks vulnerable. ~ stoney
Maria should be led to pasture and fed pig slop. I've only been a bear a week and already I'm starting to get angry. My hair it's thinner than usual. The charts are deteriorating before my eyes I have a five pack now of shorts that each shows a very depressing trend. One is AKAM I've already blabbed about that one without getting in> it's down a buck since. Another one folks is this MSTR microstratagy. All I can tell you about this stock is there was a day way back when... when investing was so frivolous I bought Microstratagy MSTR and MVSN Microvision and MicroMuse! Because I was buying stocks named Micro! And it worked! Then of course I had to make the big decision it was down to MSTR & MUSE back n' forth which to let ride? Which to sell. One is $110 now and one is $10 I think you know where I wound up. Sour Grapes? Perhaps, but this MSTR chart looks like shit. I will release the rest of my shorts after a pow wow with my peeps. I think after the CPI and the bad housing starts and the Iraq soldiers missing mess comes to a head this week I may be able to convince them to let me take a more active stance against this market other than the incredibly well timed QID I already own. ~ stoney
The S&P 500 is flirting with a meltdown. The key number for the SPX remains 1508. It got above it on the open but quickly fell back below 1508, and despite consolidating just below 1508 was unable to regain it. Then it stepped down to test the critical 1501 juncture where the buy support crowed came in predictably just above 1498. Forget the fact the broad market is collapsing, 1498 was the point to buy support and they did. Late in the day the SPX recovered from the mid-day selling, but it wasn't very spectacular. It remains positioned to regain 1508 resistance with a positive gap higher on Today and then a roll over. Gapping below 1498 late in the day is likely to send the SPX well below last week's low of 1491. At this point 1485 or so I will begin adding indivdual names to my short parade. The Russell was the weakest index all day and it easily broke the key 826 level around mid-day. At the end of the day, the Russell is below the 826 pivot level and that is bad for the bulls. Small stocks look doomed. However, the Russell did hold just above last week's lows and managed to rally a bit late in the day. For now the Russell is holding support at 820, but relative to the Dow and S&P 500 it is clear folks are interested only in the big stocks. The Naz looks to be going to a test of 2510 support, possibly lower. Total breadth was terrible yesterday at -2025, just off the lows of the day. While the Dow and S&P 500 rallied late in the day, there was very little broad market improvement. We have gone from the troops reluctantly following the generals to not following them at all. This sort of action does not look good from an internal health stand point. Total volume was in line with Friday meaning it was another slow day. While slow, volume was clearly weighted to the downside. It looks like the broad market weakness is catching up with the majors. As well today: *Almanac Investor Alert DOW MACD SELL Signal Triggers 05/14/2007 The DOW's Best Six Months SELL Signal triggered. This is the "Official" MACD Seasonal SELL Signal for the DOW!
Isn't there a saying can't see the forest through the trees? Funny over reaction today to inflation news. Ahem when the consumer refuses to buy that's what happens-- prices go down. Get ready for a whole lot more of " good inflation " as we plop into a recession.
I feel you stoney but I think that the powers have a choice to make. Be responsible and inflict a bit of pain now to avoid more down the road with a rate hike and risk hurting equities and housing or cut and send the dollar in to the toilet but keep the illusion of things within the US hunky dory. The Fed has never shown much spine under bernanke's so I think that a cut is probably in the cards. If you want to hedge yourself or even fling on the short side do it with the EEM not any of the US indices. If we get a rate cut and the $ falls it is going to be very tough on the EM.
Bernanke is very mellow he doesn't want to cause much anxiety in the markets so he may lower rates once