How to stop picking tops or bottoms

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by jr07, Sep 16, 2009.

  1. jr07

    jr07

    Hi

    Anybody have an exercise or method to stop trying to pick tops or bottoms in trading?

    I've been selling into this rally like mad, convinced "this is the top" and haven't been able to stop.

    Everyday it's the same thing, Im "convinced" the market can't go any higher and a correction is imminent, only to get squeezed.

    How can I stop doing this?
    J
     
  2. pma

    pma

    If price is above the days open,then only look for longs.
    If price is below the days open,then only look for shorts.
    Im being serious BTW

    :)
     
  3. Redneck

    Redneck

    Simple – trust what you see not what you think

    You don’t trust yourself

    And

    Since you’ve thought through this (expended the effort to think).. Now what you think that has more credence than your eyes - with you


    Problem is – mkt don’t give a shit what you think


    RN
     
  4. If you already know the problem and can't do anything about it, the only solution is to keep doing what you're doing until it becomes to painful to lose anymore money.
     
  5. Because you are "picking" and not really "trading". You are guessing and not reading signals correctly. The best way to stop doing this is to really formulate a trading strategy (with positive exp) and then stick to it. No guessing, no feeling, just see and do. Or don't see and don't do.

     
  6. Nattdog

    Nattdog

    Market behavior changed in July.
     
  7. You can let youself "pick" all you want. "Picking" is just an opinion.

    What you do with the opinion afterward is what counts.
     
  8. DrEvil

    DrEvil

    Ok so at least you realise that you have got no idea what you are doing. The good news is that you are already ahead of the countless dimwits on ET that claim to be short and loading up for the imminent crash.

    Stop trading money and get to work on coming up a sound strategy.

    Good luck.
     
  9. Eight

    Eight

    The way I look at other people's opinions about markets is that it's worth what I pay for it which typically is nothing.. I'm not that much smarter than they are so my opinion about markets is also worth very little, I don't even form one... the market's opinion however is everything.. the market is always correct..
     
  10. FB123

    FB123

    Rule #1:

    If you're posting questions like this on ET, STOP TRADING REAL MONEY. YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING, AND YOUR CHANCES OF SUCCESS ARE PRECISELY ZERO AT THIS POINT.

    Rule #2:

    Work out a system, trade that system on a sim for a while. A LONG while. I traded sim at one point for the better part of a year in my development and didn't rush things. You'll know that you're ready to try live trading when you stop asking questions on ET.

    Rule #3:

    Stop being greedy. Picking bottoms or tops is essentially greed. It's trying to get 100% of the move, getting in at the exact bottom and getting out at the exact top. Experienced traders know that this is statistically IMPOSSIBLE. Nobody can do this, outside of a psychic who can see the future. Unless you're psychic, realize that what you are trying to do is IMPOSSIBLE on a consistent basis. That's why you're failing.

    Realize that ANYTHING can happen. The trend can abort early, it can go as far as you think it will, or it can go a lot further. There are no rules to tell you what it will do ahead of time, just rules that will tell you when a reversal has already happened and an opposite trend is starting.

    Losing traders try to catch 100% of all the moves in the market and end up catching nothing but losses. Winning traders scale back those unrealistic and impossible expectations and are satisfied with catching the meat of the trends, without ever picking a bottom or top.

    Your best teacher will be your bank account. If you have had enough, you will realize RIGHT NOW that you have no idea what you are doing and stop trading real money until you are a lot more knowledgeable and confident. If you don't, I guess you haven't had enough pain yet. It's up to you.

    I went through this exact same thing many years ago, like every trader does. How fast you come out of it will determine how good of a trader you really are.
     
    #10     Sep 16, 2009