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How many pips/week is "Killing it" in FX?

  1. How many net pips of profit per week would you consider to be "killing it"?
     
  2. Either you assume it's total pips earned regardless of size, which makes it kinda pointless given how deep the market is, or it's pips per contract/unit per week, which makes the question equally, well, silly :)
     
  3. as many as it takes for you not to get killed. :D

    ks, gof
     
  4. I would consider 300+ pips/contract/week killing it.
     
  5. 1 meeeelyon pips!
     
  6. 30 PIP/DAY = AVERAGE +
    50 PIP/DAY=GOOD
    75 PIP/DAY=EXCELLENT
    100 PIP/DAY=KILLING IT

    So thats 500/WEEK

    Z CoMaNdAtOrE
     
  7. nice signature, ZC.

    ZfOrExSkALpEr
     
  8. Yeah, I'd consider someone making 50 SP pts/week per contract killing it too, lol.
     
  9. Hmm... 200? 500? I must be really scraping the bottom at this forex trading thing. How about twenty-seven? As in lowly 27 pips per week average P/L.

    Combine that with startlingly low (many would say) leverage ranging from 4:1 to 9:1 (depending on the currency pair), and you'll have triple-digit, 100%+ returns this year, next year and every year. Putting the likes of Stevie Cohen and Monroe Trout to shame. With under 10% drawdowns, if you care about that sort of thing.

    Do that for, say, 10 years, and you'll multiply your starting capital 1,000 times.

    Of course, looking at the early poll results, that couldn't possibly qualify as "killing it." Too bad... just when I thought I was beginning to have a long shot at maybe some day getting the hang of it.
     
  10. This all depends on risk... which also has a lot to do with timeframe.

    If someone told me they made 500 pips the last week trading the cable on the weekly.. or daily for that matter, I'd be much more impressed off of someone who made 100 pips on the 1 min. with a 10 pip stop! There's a lot more money in it.
     
  11. See... he's got it!

    The people that are choosing 500 and not posting in this thread... Do you guys make that much? Are you making anything?

    Makes me wonder!
     
  12. Fifty pips per week will make you really rich in a fairly short period of time. I'd say 150 pips per week is "killing it." Of course that's for an average week; some weeks you should be happy to make far less and occasionally you should only be happy with making more.

    Cheers,

    TRADERguy
     
  13. At this point in time there are 13 votes for 500+; remember that it is very possible that all of the votes came from Coinzy aka FXsKaLpEr, etc.
     
  14. 500 net pips a week is insane. you could also double your money in the stock market every week if you bought the right calls/puts (actually much more), but come on its just stupid, 500 pips a WEEK?
     
  15. think about it, if you could just earn $10.00 per hour trading FX. 1 pip.

    240 dollars a day X 5 days a week--1200.00 per week --62400.00 per year.


    surfer:D
     
  16. A lot of people are swing traders/trading on multiple pairs.

    Also, for SOME reason, there are a lot of people who multiply their true pip count by how many lots they were trading... which is ridiculous. Lol.
     
  17. Thanks for the replies guys. Some of the sharper cookies on this thread have pointed out that without certain common underlying assumptions, the poll doesn't mean too much. To clarify:

    Pips attained on a single pair (assuming only one pair is traded) or its equivalent*** on a per lot basis (net pips/units traded)

    ***If you trade a basket of 10 currencies you could add each currency's net profit/loss then divide that by total units traded to get about the same number.

    The poll was designed to skew toward unrealistic expectations. But then again this is ET! :D My own opinion is actually very similar to this one: (I would add that in the real world of trading it isn't possible to trade every day let alone every week and it isn't possible to lever up to infinity. Also, systems don't produce profits linearally. )

    While I agree with late_apex that with "only" 27 pips a week on decent leverage one can make a fantastic annual return. By my calculation on 5:1, at his 27 pip rate you make 70% uncompounded and 99% compounded annually. However I don't understand how he can derive a 10% drawdown from the 27 pip net unless he is just musing with regards to this percent to beat the big hitters? late_apex (and a few others in this thread) is right in that drawdown is a very important part of the picture. One other point is that returns are not linear on a weekly basis - the lower the drawdown the lower the relative roller coaster effect.

    I derive my maximum safe leverage amount from average max weekly drawdown. By average I mean the max weekly DD of the past 3-4 weeks, which for my system seems to be indicative of future weekly drawdowns. If I have a 120 pip average weekly drawdown on a EUR/USD system, and I wish to risk up to a 10% monetary drawdown in my account and I start with $20,000 then at most I can trade: (20,000 * .1)/.0120 = 166,666 units of EUR/USD. But I admit that as a result of Lon Eagle's approach to gearing and comments on capital risk, and in light of the Refco bombshell, I have taken to gearing up and keeping fewer funds at risk, at least in uninsured accounts.
     
  18. Looks like you must love statistics very much. :)
     

  19. They've also displayed their own brilliance in the fact that with using mathematical approaches to the market. You can succeed quite easily without ever killing yourself.
     
  20. Actually, I don't think any approaches have been discussed in this thread. To get back on topic, what weekly result would you consider "killing it"?
     
  21. No I noticed no approaches were set forth... it was just interesting to me how well you stated what you do to solve a problem. Doesn't happen often here... But to answer would I consider 500 pips a week killing it? Yes the way you are stating it as being something you could capitalize on average gain on a currency basket in 7 trading days. But then again it all depends on what you possibly use to trade with. It's just I've bared witness to creative tactics that arent' the standard way others might trade. Like modeling your own baskets unrelated to standard currency pairs. But if you were to just be depending on yourself sitting there using one pair I'd agree that you would be "lucky" to cacth even 100 pips a week on average consistentley over time.
     
  22. Certainly true.

    Any update from pipscooper? Killing it or Killing me? :D
     
  23. Those poll numbers seem to be missing a decimal. 500 should read 50.0 and 50 should read 5.0, and maybe go from "PER WEEK" to "PER MONTH".
     
  24. Maybe they forgot the minus sign.:D
     
  25. The group of guys I trade with and our Mentor try to average 100 pips per week...sometimes we do better sometimes not...this week has just been so far out of wack...I'm up +1132 pips ....this is extremely RARE however with most of my weeks 100-150 pips..... with trade size growing as bankroll permits...

    Aloha
     
  26. Care to start an EliteTrader (ET) live trading journal to prove your claim?

    Each trade would require 2 posts (open and close) within a minute of actual trade, ET time stamps all posts making confirmation easy. I posted Live Forex Trades on ET so I'm sure you can too.
     
  27. Try is OK, keep trying. :D
     
  28. My partner is trading the Euro and only pulling in on avg about 30 to 40 pips a day using what I believe is cutting edge tools that few others have available to them. He's scalping 6 to 15 pips a couple times a day and usually trades for less than 2.5 hours a day.

    Here are the tools he uses. The top one is a Level II like tool for Forex. It shows all the major banks and forex dealers with the tightest spread ones on the right. When a bank raises its offer we color code it green and when it lowers it we code it red. Many times the forex chops around and this tool is very useful for showing REAL moves vs the chop. The middle chart shows a 5 min chart with a 60 min statistical high/low plotted. As you can see most of the time the forex bounces off the high/low and is a low risk place to enter trades. We also have two other unique indicators on there which we call squat bar (green and red) and trend reversal (yellow). As you can see all of the indicators worked today except for one, about 92% successful.

    The bottom chart is one of the most powerful tools as it shows REAL support/resistance. As far as I know its the only volume profile forex chart in existence and shows where the trades happened. The lines are the pivots which many packages have and the yellow line is our balance point line which shows avg price. If below yesterday's closing balance point you should look for shorts, above go long. Same with today's balance. If inbetween today's balance and yesterdays trade cautiously and look for potential reversal at yesterday's. It's usually good for at least one profitable trade the first time it touches as people who have positions on avg are at this price and there is natural support/resistance here.


    [​IMG]
     
  29. Probably the whole confusion when many times discussing the same issue has been that there are always two possible bases/ methods for the calculation.

    1st, measuring the movement captured per contract. In this case, the contract size is not relevant, basically. All we need to know is how many pips on average our systems are able capture for a period, say per week. This calculation can be easily done by trading one (mini size) lot of 10,000 units. This captured movement could exclude the leverage factor easily. Using EUR/USD as reference by converting other pairs to equivalent of EUR/USD might be a good start.

    2nd, measuring the pips earned per a standard lot which conventionally is one (full size) lot of 100,000 units. Simple and straightforward calculation. The leverage factor may or may not be included.

    However, there can be minimum 10 times, or much higher when including leverage, difference between these two methods/ bases.

    Please correct me if anything wrong for the above.
     
  30. imo, selling any trading software claiming to capture movement of more than (say) 20 pips a day would be simply a joke in forex trading.

    With small initial capital, earning 20 pips a day everday will make many millions dollars within a very short time, that could be only a portion of development and marketing time of any software with similar complexity/ scale.
     
  31. There are 13 signals using the squat bars and trend reversal studies. 12 of them worked. If you took 5 pips profit with 10 pip stop you have 12 x 5 = 60 - the one loser of 10 pips. That's 50 pips today and that doesn't even include selling statistical highs and buying statistical lows. Also taking 5 pips is conservative as he often takes 10 to 15. Most of the trades in just today's chart gave 10+ pips potential. The 7am trade with yellow dot under went up about 25 pips by itself. How can you say 30 pips is a lot? I've seen the kind of charting that comes with most forex platforms, if thats what you're using than I guess I can imagine why 30 pips seems like a lot to you since from my testing stochastics and MACD crosses don't typically make money consistently. Most other indicators are lagging tools where the tools we use are leading. They are based on statistics, volume and volatility. Most trading indicators available to the avg trader use previous price data which isn't too predictive.

    Let's look at the previous day, Dec 20th.

    [​IMG]

    Here there are 22 signals and 18 winners

    Winners 18 x 5 = 90 pips
    Losers 4 x 10 = 40 pips
    Net 50 pips

    Most of these trades went 10+ pips so lets assume you take 10 pips on half the trades

    Winners 9 x 10 = 90
    Winners 9 x 5 = 40
    Losers 4 x 10 = 40

    Net = 90 Pips on Dec 20th

    This is just for the Euro, he trades all the major currency pairs. We actually have scanning for currencies and he trades mostly long pair above their 20 and 50 day moving avg and above yesterday high and short those below 20/50 day MA and below yesterday low. We also use Crabel's NR4 inside day and NR7 as setups for longer term trends. Using the volume profile chart on the weekly chart you can see major support/resistance levels that often lead to high probability 30 to 50 pip trades. I can post some charts of these if anybody would like to see.

    Pick any day you would like to see and I'll put up chart. 30 pips is not unreasonable if you have access to tools that work. Most forex charting packages have BS canned indicators that obviously don't work. Again, most of the trades in this chart also moved more than 10 pips so 5 is pretty conservative. He often takes 10+ but I just wanted to show how this isn't just possible but not extremely difficult using our software. Don't take my word for it, download our trial and see for yourself. If you need any help setting up your charts I'll be happy to help.
     
  32. I wonder why the CTFC etc require a disclaimer saying that
    ""HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
    ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. "" etc etc and so on and so forth?
    :D :D
     
  33. Perhaps one of the underlying reasons would be: After stating the disclaimer, vendors could say anything they would like to promote. That could be probably good for the industry as a whole. :D
     
  34. Again, do NOT take my word that these tools work. Try them yourself. The squat bar and trend reversal tools are unique to our application but coding the 60 min statistical high/low isn't too hard in Trade Station or other programs. The statistical high/low shows up at the beginning of every new hourly time. As you can see from the chart if the instrument goes down we lower the avg high by the amount it goes down and vice versa when it goes up. Without this you'd miss a lot of very good trades. I only posted this to refute that its not possible or likely to make 30 pips each day. We are not getting in and hitting 30 pip winners but taking multiple small pieces out of the trend and even the chop. I would say with certainty that we have the absolute best tools for trading CHOP, nothing even comes close. There are many tools, some good, in other packages that trade trends quite well but as many of you know the markets often spend more time chopping around then with clean trends. It's pretty easy to give back half+ your trend profits during chop times.
     
  35. If someone had a method that could REALLY take say 20pips a day then how many years would it be before they owned most of the worlds currency - given the power of compounding.
    Wonder why these soon to be muti-trillionaires are still working in an office:eek:
     
  36. Did you Actually mean "how many months" or "how many days"? I think you did. :cool:
     
  37. Just so people don't accuse me of cherry picking the best trading days I looked at the Dec 19th which had much fewer 'perfect' setups. Many times of the day had very low volatility and the winning trade % is far lower.

    [​IMG]

    This is a pretty ugly chart. There was a short at around 1am that worked, a squat bar buy at around 5am that worked, the squat bar at 7am lost, the 8:30 squat sell would have made 5 pips, the 11am squat sell made 5, the 1400 made 5, the next one at 14:30 lost, the 14:35 made 5, the 1500 trade made more than 5, the 1830 sell made 5.

    10 trades and 8 winners.

    Winners 10 x 5 = 50
    Losers 2 x 10 = 20

    Net 30 pips

    If you used the statistical range tool this day it worked less than half the time which is unusual but a part of trading. Even the best tools don't work everyday and markets change. One thing to keep in mind is that when volatility decreases its very likely to increase. So what this means is if you see an hour or two that doesn't hit the statistical high or low, then it is UNWISE to buy or sell the instrument when it does break out at the stat high/low. It's VERY likely to go through it. Also note that all day the Euro NEVER hit the statistical avg high yet did hit the low at 2am and 5am. This is a pretty big clue that there is selling pressure and little buying pressure. Using our tools does require some common sense and analysis on the traders part. There is also more chop around the pivot and when it is beneath R1 and above S1 which was the case on Dec 19th.
     
  38. How many pips/week is "Killing it" in FX?
     
  39. topgunsoftware.....Can you back up your claims?

    Instead of posting graphs and paragraphs how about a live trading journal? Details Here
     
  40. For short-term signals, mcuh better try a free service which does not allow 60-minite editing.

    http://www.timertrac.com/Public/voluntary.asp

    Q
    Medallion Tracking
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    voluntary basis.


    * Ranked by TimerTrac.com. Our subscribers can view your performance as your buy/sell signals are recorded by us (We delay the most recent signal by a time period set by you).
    * Your own user/password to control information shown to subscribers.
    * Free use of the easily customizable TimerTrack Medallion for use on your web site or literature.
    * You can post to the "TimerTrac Broadcast" which subscribers and media receive as often as daily.
    * Links to your site available to subscribers.
    * Compete for "TopTimer" awards.
    * Sign-up to be Tracked! - It's FREE!
    UQ
     
  41. I personally trade the S&P and Russell and have in the past not only posted a trading journal but also VIDEO taped my trading live. The videos are on our website as proof. I believe I am the only person ever on this board to do that. The currencies are often the most volatile during times I'm typically sleeping. I know guys who trade them and wake up frequently to take a look and place trades. Sorry, even though it is tempting to do this to prove it, I don't feel I need to. The software speaks for itself and anybody can verify my claims for free with a trial. I'm not going to lose sleep staying up 24 hours a day to catch all trades. Go ahead and prove me wrong using it and then publicly bash us. I challenge anybody to do this. I may consider doing this at the end of January when our Stocks and Commodities ad hits and I'm finished writing a free trading course (only about 30% done now). We do have plans to automate some of our strategies and when we get around to that will definitely post.
     
  42. Does your question refer to an FX trader killing the market, or to a bucketshop FX brokerage killing the trader? Seems that the latter sort of killing occurs far more frequently.

    I also think that "killing" is not the best word to use. It seems to me that a bucketshop FX its customers, rather than kills them.

    Vampires were said, in some of the legends, occasionally to keep some victims alive and enslaved, as an ongoing source of blood on which to feed. I think that this model would be followed by the more forward-thinking bucketshops, in much the same way that the deadliest contagious diseases are not the most successful, because they destroy host species so thoroughly that they have nothing left to infect. Vampires also had a supernatural ability to control the minds of their victims, and to seduce them into their victimization, and this power reminds me of the power of bucketshops to feed on their own willing victims.
     
  43. +1400% ouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuchhh am lovin it.........oups am killin it....


    Zico
     
  44. As would be expected, the greedy and the frightened are hand in hand.
    jmho
     
  45. Happened to still have Euro chart up and saw signal now so will take trade.

    Short EURUSD 1.1854 Stop 1.1864 and Target 1.1844
     
  46. Out, 10 pips profit in less than 10 mins.
     
  47. What trading platform do you use?
     
  48. Euro consolidating under pivot and just got a trend reversal signal which are about 65% accurate.

    Short EURUSD 1.1852 Stop 1.1862 Target 1.1842

    Because resistance is above us will take trade
     
  49. For me everyone making 50 pips/week on a consistent basis is making a killing - because he/she can easily make more than he/she can spend.
    I know that there are people out there making a lot more, but it's not needed .... All I am trying is to get my money as stress-free as possible ;-).

    Happy Trading,

    fritz_haber
     
  50. Stopped 1.1862 but shorting again at 60 min bar statistical high.

    Short EURUSD 1.1871 Stop 1.1881 Target 1.1848
     
  51. Not falling away as fast as I'd like and getting calls. Out at 1.1862

    3 Trades
    10 Pip Profit
    10 Pip Loss
    9 Pip Profit
     
  52. Curious how you are catching those ticks right at the limit? My brokers- with their 3 pip spreads and usually a little wavering make it hard to time so exactly.
    Who is your broker?
     
  53. R1 resistance levels

    Short 1.1897 Stop 1.1907 Target 1.1880
     
  54. Out 1.880

    4 Trades
    Winner 10 Pips
    Loser 10 Pips
    Winner 9 Pips
    Winner 17 Pips

    Total 3 for 4 and up 26 Pips

    This last trade was PERFECT setup as it had R1 resistance, squat bar signal and our new Trend Reversal Signal. The second trade I took was emotional and wanted to make quick 20 pips to show our tools work. Shorting a thrust up flag pattern is almost always a dumb move and I paid for it! Still going down too but I knew I'd make 17 pips on last trade, could have made 27 if held a few more minutes. Don't be greedy, take multiple tiny profits and they add up. I'm done for today but just wanted to illustrate that 30 pips is not unreasonably hard to get. I feel I've done that.
     
  55. Are you actually trading these or just looking at a chart. I run esignal forex and the spread on the INTERBANK was such that it never allowed for a 1.18970 short, let alone a typical broker who is shaving his extra pip or 3 profit. The green is the offer and red is bid.
     
  56. ROFLMAO, you're so busted topgun. What a retard. Seriously why would you be peddling your wares on an internet site if you have software that works so well, surely you could make more trading. Also could you please answer roberk's question about the 3 pip spread?

    Thanks

    5yr
     
  57. I was told by moderators to stop posting charts so I replied to his question with a link to the chart I used and it was obviously deleted. There are places to trade that have lower than 3 pip spreads, down to 1.5 actually. You're paying twice the spread. The last trade had a potential profit of 39 pips but I got out with 17. Even counting increase spreads how do you do the math that I got busted? I obviously proved my point with live calls. I not only made the calls but also predicted the last trade would go further than the others. I couldn't have been more right on and have had about a dozen people congratulate me on the calls.

    My last trade was the high of today to within a pip or so and I posted it LIVE. If that makes me busted, calling the top of today's range than so be it! LOL I wouldn't have even posted trades if I didn't believe in our tools. They work, no question about it and I proved it today. I also took less than half of the profit out of that trade. I thought it would drift down to 1.1850 which is the pivot level but it moves so slow and I was busy doing other things. I made my point, took profit on last trade to finish this debate for good and was done. Believe me or not, I dare anybody to actually try our signals and tools and prove me wrong. I've already proved its not too hard to catch 30 pips a day and it was with just one currency and in about an hours time.

    Remember my original post was to take 5 pips profit and 10 pips stop. I knew this was conservative and the Euro often makes 10+ pip moves. If you question it is possible to trade with YOUR broker and your higher pip spreads and catch the 10's you can NOT deny that on every trade I called out today catching 5 pips would have worked each and every time! 100% winning trades with only 5 pip profits.

    The last trade was the highest probability of all with R1 as resistance, most of the FX dealers not raising their offers at the whole number 1.1900 and I got a squat sell and trend reversal sell signal. Four reasons to go short there and thats why on that and only that trade I raised my profit objective which was far short of how far it went. I caught 17 pips out of a 39 pip move. Just that one trade had more than enough room even counting your brokers wider spreads to silence this debate once and for all.

    I'll be busy the rest of the day but will check back here tonight and answer any other questions.
     

  58. Thank you for your generous contributions to the industry. :D
     
  59. You're welcome. I almost never see anybody contribute any new ideas and strategies that work on here. Instead people flame others and really contribute nothing constructive. I felt obligated to share some ideas and strategies that actually work.

    I hope now I've helped you realize that some people can quite easily pull out 20 to 30+ pips a day. I would like to see others discuss strategies that they have found to work. Rather than bash others for contributing I suggest traders who don't make money trading spend more time listening with an open mind, and those who do trade profitably share the strategies and concepts that contribute to their success.

    To Recap, here are some ideas that I have freely shared. Using pivot levels on Forex, they are mostly used only in the S&P and other futures. Also use statistics to give you a clue as to each trading instruments average volatility for different times of the day. It is a roadmap that helps you decide which way the market is likely to go and where it is most likely to reverse at.
     
  60. I have to confess I don't have the required patience to finish reading any BS messages, completely to the end, of this kind anymore.

    Bye, you may own this thread and this board now (or even this financial world, if you like).

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/newreply.php?s=&action=newreply&postid=933265

    :)
     
  61. My only point is you said you had no clue how anybody could consistently make 30 pips a day in the Forex. You also stated that you could own the world with these kinds of profits. It's only $300 for one $100k contract (About $72,000 a year). That's a decent trading income but far from earth shattering. I find it ironic that I answered your question and SHOWED you exactly how to make money trading and you call my posts BS. I've had many positive comments from traders who want to continue to hone their skills so will do my best to continue to educate.

    Here's today's chart.

    [​IMG]

    As you can see my best trade of the day, the HIGH of the day btw to within a pip or two (I'd love to see others trade against the trend and manage to do so with such small stops!). I shorted this area because it was the R1 level on the pivots and I got a squat bar sell and using the Forex Level II I saw the major banks not raising their offers. Two bars later I saw the exhaustion signal and this was proof of a bigger down move and gave me confidence to hold. I am very good at picking entries and can honestly say not the best at exits. I can realize when I'm wrong and get out at even or a small win or loss but rarely catch more than half of any move. Something I'm personally working on. Again about 75% of the signals caught at least 5 pips. And unlike many indicators such as stochastics or MACD these are leading indicators and don't require price to move before they showup. I don't take every signal the second I see it but do start to watch the Forex Level II to see what the banks are doing. If I can see the majority of them are behaving in a way that should make the trade profitable I will get in. If I get a sell signal but its trading in the middle of its average hourly range I will tend to be more cautious as I know if wrong I will or can lose more than the average trade. Signals at the beginning of a new hourly period also tend to make me cautious as big moves often happen early in any new hourly bar. The squat bar sell signal at 9am is a good example of this. It made sense to wait for the Euro to go up to the pivot (white line) before getting short.

    Any signal that is outside the average hourly range I will try to hold longer than 5 or 10 pips as there is a much greater chance of a nice snapback at these extremes.

    Looking past the time I placed trades I would have shorted the 11:30 signal as it was right at the hourly statistical high. I also would have taken the buy signal after 12:30 as it was below the avg hourly low. The signal at 1400 I wouldn't have taken as it was the beginning of a new hourly bar and there is typically more volatility at that time and increased risk. I would not have taken the next buy signal either as I don't like to buy bottoms of narrow ranges or sell tops due to the increased risk of a volatile breakout. The signal at 15:30 I would take as it is near the statistial low and the market looked strong. The 1730 short I'd take as it is above the hourly statistical high. The other two signals I wouldn't have taken as the market has been trading sideways with low volatility for too long. This kind of trade has increased risk and reduced profit potential and longer holding times.
     
  62. No forex trader has lived who can profit by risking 2 for one. One for one is a terrible risk/reward, and risking even one for a profit of two is amateurish, except in compelling circumstances. Add to those points the silly notion that this catastrophic risk/reward can overcome via 10-pip bites, defeating in the process even a 1 pip spread (10 percent of the profit target, but likely higher due to higher spread), and the nuttiness of this strategy is evident.

    Of course, too, the strategy assumes a factor very much in doubt, which is an honest fx retailer who won't job the trader.
     
  63. topgunsoftware ............. All Forex traders can make +30 pips in one day as you have done. You have NOT consistently made 30 pips a day over a period of time as you have claimed. A period of time in my opinion would be at least 1 week, but 1 month would be better to prove a trading system.

    You have only plugged up this thread with useless graphs and BS.
     
  64. Perhaps we sometimes need Forex education from Forex newbies. :D

    -----------------------

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=660735#post660735

    Looks like earning enough money to support the cost of ET sponsorship and keep it going is not so easy. :D

    ---------------------

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=43464&perpage=6&pagenumber=10

    Here is a very interesting "offer":

    A MILLION DOLLAR PRIZE
    http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgbo...3827;p=1#000000

    Q
    There is simply NO CHANCE to produce consistent trading profits in excess of, say 10-15 pips of eurusd a day, no matter how clever you are.

    If anybody claims the contrary, I am ready to take up the challenge.

    If anyone is willing to enter a 100:1 contest, I promise to pay 1.000.000 USD in one year's time, to anyone, who is able to deliver consistently, for a full calendar year, trading signals on eurusd, which would have the following characteristics:

    - the signals have to be defined precisely (stop or limit orders), and in time to get implemented ( at least 1 minute ahead of execution)

    - the MM of choice will be Oanda - their spread is certainly not a hindrance, and their stop and limit execution is not worse than that of UBS, thus their fills will be the proof of the performance

    - the maximum nominal stop will not be higher than 30 pips

    - there have to be at least 4 trades each week

    - there has to be no losing month

    - the average weekly profit has to be not less than 100 pips (taking into account Oanda's execution)

    If all these conditions are met I WILL PAY 1.000.000 USD to the signal provider at the end of the year. However, if the signals should result in a loss at the end of the year, the signal provider will pay me 10.000 USD as compensation for the waste of time and money.

    If the result should be positive, but less than defined above, I will pay a compensation on a discressionary basis.
    UQ

    :D

    -------------------------

    http://www.oanda.com/products/fxmath/margin.shtml

    At 50:1 leverage, the required margin is $2,000 to trade $100,000. The profits without compounding $72,000 will be 3,600% per year, or 15% per day. With compounding at 15% a day, over many thousands times of $975,748,372,726,264.00 in less than a year.

    :D

    ---------------------------

    http://www.iasg.com/intro.asp

    I used to keep tracking all the Forex managers on this site. None of them can return consistently over 30% net yearly, even with moderate drawdowns.

    :D

    If anyone can do better, (s)he should be able to manage over many tens of billion dollars in trading Forex for 2% management fees plus 20% incentive bonus.

    :confused:
     
  65. Signal Vendors
    High Yield Account Managers
    System Sellers
    ...

    Will hate you for that!
    For having poked your fingers into their eyes.
    :D
     
  66. Clearly, that was never a bona fide, good-faith offer in the first place.

    Why is that, you might ask? Take a look at conditions #3 and #4:

    Those 2 conditions, out of 6, are unreasonable; deal-breakers. There are 2 possibilities I can think of:

    1) by putting those ill-conceived conditions in, the author of the challenge shows that he has little understanding of how the forex market works and what it takes to be consistently profitable in it over the long term.

    or

    2) the author of the challenge is slightly more clever than that and does realize that forcing a trade nearly every day and demanding a tight stop are high barriers to success. Therefore he deliberately put those conditions in, to strongly discourage any would-be challengers who might otherwise be interested.

    Of course, all this is really moot. The odds that the author of the challenge has anywhere near $1,000,000 burning a hole in his pocket, are slim to none.
     
  67. Don't worry. Soon they won't see OddTrader posting on ET anymore. :)
     
  68. From the questions and comments I have received I would disagree with this. From what I can see I'm the only one talking about trading techniques and how many pips they can catch using them. I'd love it if someone else would also share some trading ideas that work.

    I was asked to trade it live and show that it works and I did. I primarily trade the S&P and Russell and anybody is free to try these strategies themselves. Again I dare you to take the trades in a FX simulator and prove me wrong. I'd LOVE to see that. You will most definitely see that they not only work but are actually LEADING indicators unlike 90% of the tools in other packages.

    Absolutes are rarely true. I was never recommending a person trade with stops twice the profit target but lets be clear. A system that is over 67% winning can be profitable with losses twice the winners. It's simple math. I only pointed out the % winning trades and also mentioned that most of the time a trader can pickup 10 pip profits instead of 5. Many intraday scalpers use 1:1 risk reward systems. It's quite common in the futures market. As you saw from my trading I took 10 pip profits and used 10 pip stops. When I KNEW I had a trade that was going to go more than 10 pips I took 17 and I got out with only half the potential profit. Knowing that a system is 75 to 80% profitable for a 5 pip profit using a 10 pip stop and using discretion can allow a scalping type trader to trade better than the system's backtest results. As you saw I was 75% profitable with over a 1:1 risk reward. There was also one trade that I knew wasn't going to continue my way and I bailed early with less profit. It all comes down to experience. I have traded for 6 years and probably 30 million shares of stock and tens of thousands of emini contracts. When scalping the futures I have had days where I've taken 100+ trades. So I kind of have an idea of how to read order flow and know if my assumptions will prove right or not.

    Most experienced traders use discretion. I personally don't like taking signals after the market has been in a period of low volatility as it is then MORE likely to make a trend move and my risk of the trade is higher. Also during low volatility times the time required to make 10 pips is a lot longer. Every trader needs to know what time frame they trade on. Knowing which signals to take and which not to and what ZONE the market is in is very important. I will often fade moves from S1 to R1 but try to take more trend signals when above R1 or below S1.

    I trade on a 5 min chart and like to be in and out in 5 to 20 mins max. This probably won't work for some traders. Also by watching the Forex Level II I can see if my belief about market direction is right or not. I can get out of trades that would otherwise turn into losses. I may make a few pips or lose a few pips but won't take the full loss. I did that the other day when I realized I wouldn't make the full profit target and took less. Why take a loss when you can take a smaller profit?

    I mainly trade the futures and watch our Time and Sales window that shows what the largest traders are doing. I reset it when in a trade and it lets me see how much buying vs selling is going on. That's one reason I trade the futures and not Forex, increased edge thats not available in the Forex. I watch the 100 lot traders in the S&P as they TOTALLY move the market.

    So instead of bashing strategies that obviously work why not post some of your own with examples. I'd rather learn something new than waste time bickering.
     
  69. I think I have discovered why there seems to be so much disbelief that a trader can pick up 20 to 30 pips consistently.

    On Dec 22 the daily trading range was about 87 pips but if you count every 10 pip move the Euro moved about 600+ Pips! I hope now you can see that catching 30 pips is not so unreasonable.

    One thing traders RARELY do when talking about a strategy is to discuss the time frame it is meant to be traded on. Let's be clear, I am referring to trading the currencies using scalping like techniques however unlike futures or stocks the hold times can be 20 to 30 mins instead of minutes.

    Catching 20 to 30 pips out of 600 total pip moves now does not seem too unreasonable. I hope this clears up the mystery to those following this.

    Money managers do not scalp in and out like this so whoever mentioned comparing my trading and systems to money managers is totally unreasonable. There are individual traders who can make a hundred+ percent a year trading (due to the leverage) but hedge funds and other money managers with their longer trading time term horizon can not. They trade for weeks and months while I am talking about trading for minutes. I hope now you realize how rediculous it is to compare the two methods.

    The key to making money trading is to have the highest winners as possible, with the highest profits possible, the lowest losses possible AND to have a LOT of trades. Trade frequency makes a HUGE difference and in my opinion is one of the most important. I personally prefer trading systems that have a LOT of trades as the real world trading results tend to more closely equal the backtested results and obviously can be improved even more with discretion. You tend to learn when trades don't work as well and when they do and know when to trade larger size or take larger profits than normal.
     
  70. Let me be direct as I think you haven't understood some points.
    1. Given spread and normal trading conditions two of your trades would have made about 2 or 3 pips - assuming you got in exactly where you said (which coincidently was at the extreme tick).
    2. The third one you lost money.
    3. The last one was a good trade- except that as we saw you could never have made it as it never traded where you said you made the entry.
    4. You explain how you usually trade russel and sp. So it is obvious you joined this thread to shill your software- which imho no different from 100 other vendors software.
     
  71. blueingreen the author of this offer/ challenge is currently investigating a scalping system, a white box with fully disclosed details, which was introduced by another trader iGoR who claims the system can generate profits of 20% monthly consistently when using 50:1 leverage.

    http://img489.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pullback14ah.png
     
  72. Using a spreadsheet I've long relied on precisely for this type of expectancy estimation, in order to achieve 20% monthly returns at 50:1 leverage requires average P&L of 2.4 pips daily, or 48 pips monthly, or 576 pips annually.

    That's being somewhat conservative, figuring 20 trading days per month and 240 trading days per year, as well as without any compounding of profits. More trading days or applying any compounding would further decrease pips needed.

    Sure, +2.4 pips P&L per day on average, long-term, is entirely possible. I hope the author is not presenting that "white box" system as something special or impressive?

    The only (minor) assumption, affecting maximum position size for a given leverage, is that EUR/USD is the only currency pair traded, around 1.20 level. If Euro averages under 1.20, max position size would increase, and it would take ever fewer pips on average, to hit +20% monthly return target at 50:1. For example, @1.10, it would take 2.2 / 44 / 528 pips daily / monthly / annually.

    Conversely, if Euro averages over 1.20, max position size would decrease, and it would take more pips. For example, @1.30, it would take 2.6 / 52 / 624 pips d / m / a. As you can see, the impact of EUR/USD level on pips needed is rather minor.
     
  73. Not too bad for this white box system is a free of fees one.
     
  74. OK, I agree with that.

    Incidentally, wouldn't this system fail to meet the above condition #6 set by blueingreen?

    "- the average weekly profit has to be not less than 100 pips (taking into account Oanda's execution)"

    Namely, 100 pips a week in EUR/USD on average, at 50:1 leverage, translates into 167% monthly returns, not the system designer's claimed 20%.
     
  75. No, this 20% system is not related to the challenge offered by blueingreen. However, he has more analysis about the details of why there is a limit of making maximum pips.

    Q

    3 - When you are trading frequently on a high leverage, the first thing you have to make sure about, is that you have chosen well your trading vehicle, i.e. the market.

    The desirable market should have the following characteristics: be volatile, liquid, and have the highest possible ratio of average daily range divided by the bid/ask spread.

    In FX this means basically one thing: EURUSD beats them all by a wide margin, the average daily range (last 50 days) is 108 pips, the Oanda spread is 1.5 pips, the ratio is 72.

    This ensures lots of time/price opportunities, and gives you a chance to minimize the trading cost relative to the magnitude of your average trade.

    4 - The type of profit you should be hoping for lies most of the time in the 5%-10% of the average daily range, irrespective of the actual trade frequency. This means you should be shooting for a profit of 6-12 pips on eurusd a day, on average. Why?

    - Simple, because inefficiencies bigger than that are inevitably discovered and exploited by the market very quickly, so it is completely hopeless to expect more. If you can make 6 eurusd pips a day on 20 times leverage, you will make a 1000% yield in a year.

    If you feel 6 pips is not much, then maybe you have very inflated expectations. If you ask me if I make more, I will say : sometimes yes, sometimes not, and keep it in mind, I have access to prices much better than those available on Oanda.

    5 - When leveraged, you have to have an obsessive care about the trading costs, as each pip in high frequency trading makes a dramatic difference after a large number of trades.

    This means you have to be very careful about how you define your entries and exits (market, stop or limit orders) and be realistic about an average expected outcome.

    UQ
     
  76. I agree totally with your points. I believe one of the criteria was that the signal alert would come up 1 min before entry. This criteria is either due to the fact that he doesn't really have the 1 million and the challenge is pure BS or that he clearly has zero knowledge about how most trading signals are generated. Many signals come up at the end of the bar, knowing if a signal will be there before the bar is over is obviously impossible in most cases. A lot can change before a bar closes and its important to never show BAD signals.
     
  77. Point 3 - Agree completely

    Point 4 - This statement is absolutely not true UNLESS you believe it. It sounds like a self emposed belief that limits your own trading OddTrader. Another trader, like myself, can believe that pulling 20 to 30 pips out of the currencies or 3 to 5 points out of the S&Ps is not that difficult and thus having no self limiting belief allows the trader to take opportunities that another trader who may be up 6 pips on the day would be afraid to take due to possibly losing and then being down. Another thing to keep in mind is that the average daily trading range may be 100 pips but if you look at all 10+ pip swings the total TRAVEL range can be 200 to 400 pips. Taking a measely 6 pips out of say 300 pips is not 5% but only 2% of the REAL range.

    Point 5 - Totally agree

    In this chart it is clear that the old adage support once broken becomes resistance. It was the low two days after it was formed and once broken was resistance for today's earlier breakout. It's no coincidence that today's high was almost exactly where this resistance level is. I took this screen shot much earlier in the day and before the big drop off but just this one trade gave the potential of 100 pips! I would not have caught 100 and many others probably wouldn't either but taking 20 to 30 pips off of such an OBVIOUS trade is entirely reasonable. With the volatility in the Forex I find having an ULTIMATE goal of a measely 6 pips hard to believe. In fact my partner taught his 16 year old daughter how to trade Forex and over the last week she made 71 pips in her tiny Oanda account. A beginning inexperienced trader using techniques that work was able to more than double this low goal.

    Btw buying the 1.1825 area where it is clear there is support from days ago would have given another low risk trade making again 20 to 30 pips. Today a trader taking the two lowest risk and highest probability trades should be up no less than 40 pips. That's 666% more than your declared 6 pip max potential profit. I think its nice to have an absolute minimum goal each day but to say no trader can make more consistently than 6 measely pips a day is rediculous. I can see though that without precise timing tools most traders may not be able to expect anything more than that.

    [​IMG]
     
  78. To further illustrate that 6 pips a day is NOT the max a trader can get, here is a regular chart. Just ignore my last post showing clear resistance at the high and support at the low which nailed both ends to within 5 to 10 pips. Those two trades easily are worth 40 pips. But ignore that trading strategy because most traders don't have market profile charts for the forex and have no clue where real support/resistance is.

    Taking the sell signals when the market was above the R2 pivot level all worked and each trade was good for 10 pips. That's 30 pips right there.

    Now forgot those trades and trade a common strategy. The yellow line is where the avg trader has a position. As you can see it acts as support for hours and once finally broken leads to everyone who is long to bail causing the big selloff. The market fell 60+ pips in less than an hour. Shorting that level anybody who knows how to trade could have picked up 20 to 30 pips.

    Now forget the following trades I mentioned above, lets say you start trading at noon. The market has fallen over 100 pips so its not unreasonable to look for a bounce. Buying the S1 support level with 2 squat bar BUY signals easily could have picked up 15 to 20 pips!

    Again I'm totally baffled that people believe 6 pips is the best a trader can do!!! It's not rocket science folks you just need better tools than stochastics, MACD and trendlines.

    [​IMG]
     
  79. Q

    Barclay Currency Traders Index

    http://www.barclaygrp.com/indices/cta/sub/curr.html

    An equal weighted composite of managed programs that trade currency futures and/or cash forwards in the inter bank market. In 2005 there are 90 currency programs included in the index.

    1987 => 29.56%
    1988 => 4.28%
    1989 => 18.89%
    1990 => 57.74%
    1991 => 10.94%
    1992 => 10.27%
    1993 => -3.33%
    1994 => -5.96%
    1995 => 11.49%
    1996 => 6.69%
    1997 => 11.35%
    1998 => 5.71%
    1999 => 3.12%
    2000 => 4.45%
    2001 => 2.71%
    2002 => 6.29%
    2003 => 11.08%
    2004 => 2.36%
    2005 => 0.07%† †Estimated YTD performance for 2005 calculated with reported data as of December-29-2005 03:57 US CST

    UQ
     
  80. This is absolutely irrelevent! Why? Because hedge funds and institutions tend to trade off longer time frames. Do you think they get in and out of their positions in 5 to 30 mins? They take far fewer trades than a scalper. You're comparing apples and oranges. In my best year I had about a 1,360% return. I doubt there has ever been a hedge fund or mutual fund with that return. I've never even come close to that return any other year however it was done on a small account with 20 to 1 leverage during the heydey of stocks. Stocks moved $5 to $30 points a day. In the prop firm I traded in there were guys who made 3 to 5X more than I did as they took more risk. Their % returns were even crazier.

    Also do you realize how the managers of these funds are compensated? They usually get a small % - 1/2 to 2% plus incentives on profits up to maybe 20%. Even with a small fund with $100 million they only need to shoot for 15 to 20% returns to be HIGHLY compensated. If they shoot for higher returns and end up losing money they lose their backing and are done forever. Few people ever want to invest with a losing manager.

    I realize I'm never going to change OddTrader's mind. He doesn't grasp that different styles of trading can lead to totally different results and a system a hedge fund uses that trades no more than 80 times a year and that is SHOOTING for 15 to 20% returns can compare with traders doing thousands of trades a year. From my experience it is a LOT easier to predict which way the market will move over the next 10 to 20 minutes vs the next few weeks. Anybody who doesn't believe this has not learned how to successfully scalp and find low risk entries. If you take 30 pips a day out of the market that is 150 pips. Correctly timing it to hold for a few days to a week to make 150 pips in one trade is a LOT harder and will require 50 to 100 pip stops. Recovering from just ONE bad trade is thus even more difficult. Recovering from a scalping systems measely 10 pip loss is pretty easy as I showed last week.

    Free trade idea today. If the Euro comes up to the 1.1845 to 1.1850 area today it will be a safe short, Stop above 1.1865. For buys the first touch of 1.1786 should be safe with a 10 pip stop, profit target around 1.1815. Nice 30 pip move but only if the Euro drifts down to that level. Any wide range move down on incereased volatility voids this trade. The high of today is not likely to be more than 1.1900 so that would be another safe shorting zone.
     
  81. Q

    Beware of the Hidden Risks in Foreign Currency Trading

    http://www.albertasecurities.com/?currentPage=5376


    The Alberta Securities Commission (ASC) is warning Albertans about potential hidden costs and the high degree of risk related to seminars or computer programs promoting foreign currency exchange trading, known as FOREX or FX Trading. While advertisements claim one can learn to trade quickly and easily on the foreign exchange market, the fine-print disclaimer invariably states otherwise.



    Through newspaper, radio, television and Internet advertisements, Albertans may be solicited to purchase software or sign up for trading courses to learn to invest in the foreign currency exchange market. Advertisements often promise large profits on currency trading; however, consumers should be aware that foreign exchange contracts are extremely risky ventures. In addition, companies may promote foreign currency trading software packages that cost thousands of dollars. Free demonstrations of the software are often accompanied by high-pressure sales tactics.



    What the Ads May Promise:

    *
    You won’t find an easier, more tested and flexible way to put dollars in your portfolio.
    *
    You can make profits with as little as $300.
    *
    You trade without commissions and trading is available 24 hours a day, six days a week.
    *
    The FOREX market is the largest financial market in the world and provides more opportunities than you’d ever get in the stock market.
    *
    The seminars will prove how easy it is to make money from currency trading.

    What They Don’t Tell You:

    *
    The software being promoted looks at past performance to identify trends in currency trading. It uses these trends to predict the currency’s value in the future. As helpful as the software seems, it cannot accurately predict market fluctuations, nor can profits be guaranteed
    *
    While there may be no commissions, the promoters make money from the sale of the software and on the “spread” between the buy and sell quotes made on each purchase and sale.
    *
    Individuals who attend free demonstrations may experience high-pressure sales tactics and be asked to purchase software programs for thousands of dollars.



    The Fine Print

    The ASC advises consumers to be aware of the fine print on any offer making extravagant claims about investment returns as the ad may not be telling the whole story. However, the fine print provides a wealth of knowledge about what the software actually delivers:

    *
    Trading in foreign currencies involves substantial risk.
    *
    Investors should have the appropriate financial and business experience before investing in the FOREX market.
    *
    Software is a tool that tracks past performance. It does not replace research or licensed investment advice.
    *
    Past performance does not ensure future results.
    *
    No system that analyzes trends in foreign currency is free of risk. The system cannot factor all the variables capable of influencing market fluctuations.



    In general, foreign currency can be traded legally; however, investors should be aware of the potential risk involved in FOREX trading. Should you decide that FOREX trading is suitable for you, the following seven steps are useful in safeguarding yourself in the foreign exchange market:

    1. Be wary of opportunities that sound “too good to be true”



    Be cautious about any opportunity promoting exaggerated returns on investments. Be especially careful if you have recently acquired a large sum of cash either through a retirement fund or other means. These funds are attractive targets for fraud.



    2. Stay away from offers that promise little or no financial risk



    Be sceptical of any company that downplays the risks or asks you to sign a risk-disclosure statement, secrecy, or confidentiality agreement. Trading in foreign currency is volatile and poses high risk for consumers. You should not invest money you cannot afford to lose.



    3. Avoid margin trading (leveraging) unless you understand its consequences



    This type of trading makes investors responsible for far more money than they have invested. If you trade on margin, be prepared to accept losses that exceed your investment. In some cases that amount may be 100 times the original investment.



    4. Be suspicious of “intrabank markets”



    Fraudulent firms will often tell customers that their funds will be traded in the “intrabank market.” Be suspicious of this offer as this market is normally reserved for banks, investment banks and large corporations.



    5. Don’t send or transfer cash on the Internet



    Be alert to the dangers of trading online. It’s easy to trade but often impossible to get a refund. Fraudulent companies can set up Internet websites easily to reach a large audience. Many of these companies will transfer your money overseas where it will be difficult, if not impossible, to trace or recover.



    6. Get the company’s track record



    Get all the information you can about the firm or individual’s performance record. Remember that it could be very difficult to verify the information you receive. Even a glossy brochure or a stylish presentation may contain false information. Ask presenters to be specific about what makes them experts in the subject matter. Just because they appear or claim to have made a lot of money investing in foreign currency doesn’t mean it’s true (a fraudster may have made hundreds of thousands of dollars off the backs of unsuspecting investors who never bothered to ask questions).



    7. No background, no investment



    Check any information you receive to make sure the company is and does what it says. Call the Alberta Securities Commission (and Better Business Bureau or Investment Dealers Association) to get as much information about the organization as you can. Ask for written information from the company. Be wary of confidentiality agreements as this often means the investment is a scheme. If they cannot satisfy these requests, it is best to avoid investing through this company.



    If you have any questions about the legitimacy of an investment, please contact the ASC at 403-297-4296, toll-free throughout Alberta.



    The Alberta Securities Commission is the industry funded regulatory agency responsible for administering the Alberta Securities Act. Its mission is to foster a fair and efficient capital market in Alberta and, together with the other members of the Canadian Securities Administrators, develop and operate the Canadian Securities Regulatory System.


    © 2005 Alberta Securities Commission. All rights reserved. Disclaimer



    UQ

    :confused:
     
  82. How many monthly pips do professionals make on average?
     
  83. You do realize this thread is like two and a half years old?

    There's a poll at the top of the page should give you your answer :)