A couple of random thoughts... If the governments crack down on the exits (exchangers), leaving no way to redeem BTC into a sovereign currency, then you'll see a crash back to single/low-double digits. Not likely as there will always be a country that will do the exchange for a large cut, and provide the gateway for conversion into USD, EUR, CAD, CHF, AUD, JPY... Have to remember, one of the key features of BTC is built-in scarcity. In the short-term, the price of BTC is currently mania-driven. In the long-term, it's based upon scarcity + the conversion premium into sovereign currencies... If a full-fledged economy develops which eliminates the need for conversion, then scarcity will be the sole determinant of price. BTC per transaction will slow devolve towards 0 as the price of 1 BTC increases... And it will increase due to increasing demand and finite supply. Most likely, some day down the road, it'll die off or remain a geek-thing because regular people hate decimals. Buying/selling something for .0025 BTC (and trying to figure out how many $, Euros, Yen it represents) will greatly annoy the masses...
I agree with the phases in your chart, but not with your time-line. We are JUST entering the "Awareness Phase" which will take at least one more year, before the next Phase will start. Just walk around at any street in any place on the globe, and ask 100 people if they know about Bitcoin. You might get 1 person at average who can give you a correct answer (let alone is using it).
I agree with Hoi, there are at least 2-3 all time highs left in this and probably 4-5 more crashes before it stabilizes and volatility dies down... Once we see it on the cover of Time magazine, then it is time to look for something else...
I don't buy it. For centuries people put up with pounds, shillings, pence, farthings and all that nonsense. Not so long ago US stocks were only sold in eighths of a dollar. Seems to me decimals are a welcome relief to all that silliness.
i guess you guys will have plenty of speculative plays in bitcoin...but anyone with more than 10 years trading knows this will blowup to nonsense sooner than later. if you guys can't make money in regular markets what makes you think you going to make it here?
Ppfff.. you are just a few days old ET-account with 6 posts....how can we judge your experience.... If you do some more research, you will learn that many respectable and experienced Wall street guys are jumping in. Here a good point to start your research: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/new/
Just ask yourself: do I value companies like WesternUnion, PayPal and Discover? What will be the value of a total new concept blowing away those old companies? Could such a new concept be very profitable if I invest early? Just look at this screenshot. It's current daily transaction cap of the payment-networks: