I'm really pissed off at myself. I should write a book called The Undisciplined Trader. For the umpteenth time I gave back morning profits by over trading in the afternoon. I was up nicely by 11 a.m., then I gave it all back and ended up in the red by a few hundred dollars at the end of the day today. Again. I'm a trading junkie. I did 75 round trips today, virtually all the ones after 11 were stop outs. I really appreciate any ideas, especially from any of you who struggled with the same challenge and somehow made some progress. I know how to make winning trades, and do so frequently. The big truth of the situation is that your trading odds are much lower after 11 a.m. most days, even if you're using the same strategies that have been successful before 11 a.m., and that's tough to reconcile. It's like the puzzles are waiting to be solved everyday from 9:30 a.m. till 4 p.m. a good poker analogy is that I'm playing against the fish in the donkeys and am taking their chips before 11 a.m., but after 11 a.m. the sharks of low volatility come in, making it much tougher to win. I wish I could just simply walk away from the computer at 11 a.m., that's probably the best solution. Any ideas? Thanks guys.
Well, first off, what are you trading? Ticker in discussion here. 75 round trip trades in a day? That would make my head spin}{}{][][ Instead of 75...can't you make just one trade...capture that one obvious line move on the day's chart? Today's SPX chart, for example,...if you generally bought around 10:20am and sold around 3:50pm, you'd be happy. With just that one trade. Expecting to do this everyday, though, I understand can be very complicated for a ton of people. I disagree, that after a certain time....the dynamics of a trade change. It's absurd...to say trade only before 11am. Individual stocks are hard to trade. I would suggest just trade the S&P -- all the top stocks anyways mirrors the daily S&P movement.
Trading for the sake of trading is the bane of all traders I think. And it's a sure way to spiral losses. As silly as it sounds Ken, put a yellow post-it note on your main monitor. Actually two. "Am I trading for the sake of trading?" And I hate to plagiarize from a current Schwab commercial, but the adage has been out there forever... "Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all." Of course it won't work... but it does help a little. edit... He is right Ken, there's plenty of trades after 11AM. It's not the trade, it's the boredom trade that gets ya.
Your problem I think is you are stuck on the idea of trading the inverses, which is a bearish play. Today was a perfect example of a drop at some point of the day, with a rise into the afternoon. Get the hell away from the bearish side of markets. The economy is too strong for bears to get a foothold. They have had a good run for the past 6 trading days, but this may be the dip everyone will be buying going into the holiday season.
Hi Ken, This is a personal anecdote. Hopefully, you can draw something helpful out of it. Back in 2003-2004, there was this Cuban NASDAQ day-trader (I believe he started in 1996-1997). I sat on the same desk, 2 seats away from him. The thing is that he only traded pre-market. He would be ready at his desk at 8:00am EST, trade pre-market stocks, in-play, and be out by 9:00am, or 9:30am at the LATEST. He would be flat by then, no matter what. Even if it was a loss, he was disciplined about it, and he would puke the position, no ifs and buts. I watched him over a year, making $30K-$50K a month, consistently. Obviously, he was a freak of nature, a natural talent. He had a fishing boat, and I clearly remember one morning, around 9:15am, when he had turned off his workstation, and he was done for the day, he said: "damn, I am so bored, I have taken the boat out 3 times this week, I don't know what the Fuck I am going to do for the rest of the day". I asked him: "Why don't you keep trading?" He answered: "I always lose after 9:30am" Whenever, I think that my day is boring, or that I am not trading enough, I think of him ("Ralph"). It's not about how long you stay on the desk, IT'S ONLY ABOUT THE MONEY YOU GET TO KEEP... PS. I have read about these "one-hour" traders, in books (think Mark Douglas's client; I think it was the Pit Bond trader). A VERY different thing is to witness it for REAL.
You all make great points, thanks. I suppose at least I can make lots of trades without losing much is ok, but the goal is to not only get profitable but to stay that way. I'll test using win limits like I used to, grinding cash poker, if I'm up by $x I rack up and walk out.
Thanks! Great anecdote, I'll remember it. Completely agree, similarly my best trades always done by 10:15. So I have a discipline issue. Plus what in the world is more fun than trading.. I love it
I use to have this problem long ago, you can either adapt system by having different parameters, if you losing during lunch, profits become smaller but risk expands due to less volume. Or design totally different trading model by changing timeframe, double or triple and change duration of time you are in.
interesting computer that gives takes it away. the losses are the problem. staying at computer is not. i had a similar problem not exactly the same but rhyming. i realised that trading in liquid times where the market is adjusting to fresh news or rumors or expectations, is easier to trade because there is ' genuine ' trading going on. in non liquid times the moves are artificial so you have to think twice about the trade. just slowing down the process your process, taking more time ,deliberating more , second guessing your self ,actually turns into good trades. Meaning just waiting a bit longer than you normally do also if you are a risk reward trader in illiquid times you have to take less reward. if you act on buy and get out at a sell signal then you will find in illiquid times that buy and the sell [or reversal] happens lot quicker.........either take all of them or see if the reversal or sell signal, if you are long, makes sense in the market conditions you are in: trending range or in between . black or white or one of the myriad shades of grey. finally you could if you really want to trade less, go to the next bigger time frame...you may get fewer signals.But the objective should not be trade less or more but it should reflect the market conditions .......trading less in a range, where there are constant changing of direction is not appropriate. this is all off the top of my head