A simple technical analysis. Based on my analysis I find that we have not yet hit bottom. In my estimation, all of the following needs to have occurred before we have capitulated. Of course they do not all occur at the same time. A bottom is not priced based only. I expect a return to at least 1371.75. First of all this is a significant gap in my data. Secondly if you do a simple straight line Fib retracement from the low on 10/25/04 at 1186.75 (based on ES adjusted contract prices) to the high on 7/16/07 at 1566.25 you come to 1376.50 as a 50% retracement. If you base it on 8/13/04 with a low of 1159.25 a 50% retracement comes to 1362.75. Thats just the math. (By the way I am not particularly fond of straight line retracements, I think that speed resistance arcs using Fib numbers are far more accurate but far more complicated. An arc places 50% at about 1366 The trin must fill the current gap at 1.72. There are also two other gaps, one at 14.48 and 15.45. These however could be filled at a time totally unrelated to a capitulation but they will be filled. The vix must fill the highest significant gap at 36.23 and perhaps as high as 36.91 The pundits can say what they will. News can move the market greatly but sooner or later technical analysis takes over and I only listen to the news after the close.......... What else can be said!!??????? If you watched any of my previous posts, I stated a drop below 1400 back on 7/31 would take place and 5 of the 6 gaps I discussed were hit on the sell of yesterday. I think this gap thing is very very very predictive.