I am a beginning trader and people tell me that unfortunately, I am starting at a worst possible time in the market cycle. It may still work out for me since I have funds that will last me a year without touching my equity so hopefully I have time enough to learn before I start needing trading income.
If I do learn by then, my other concern is if the market does not turn around by next year and it continues this choppy and narrow range that prevents traders (I am told) from making reasonable results.
One thing that counters that concern is the theory of Harry Dent (author of Roaring 2000s) who believes that by tracking the baby boomers demographics and their spending cycles we are in for almost a decade of vigorous bull market. And he has written that this humongous bull should be starting just about now, in this year of 2002.
So if he is right, I may be starting at the right time after all!! But if he is all wet then I am doomed. :eek:
Does anyone have any opinion on the theories of this author?
I have two comments that you may find useful. Firstly; if you want to trade short term, it doesn't matter what the market does. You can make money long or short. So many people just don't get that. It's toughest in a trendless market like we've been experiencing, but it's great to learn when things are tough. Secondly; in addition to reading his books, I've heard Harry Dent speak twice. I consider myself a student of history and patterns, he has a strong argument. But it doesn't matter if he's right. If you're serious, start learning, get committed, ignore all the whiners and naysayers (there are a significant number of people who trade and become rather wealthy) who are so negative. Learn how to make money no matter what happens, and perhaps watch for the signs that Dent is correct and take appropriate action.