Home > General Topics > Trading > Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

  1. SPX to 1,700 and no analyses :)
     
  2. Here's Barry:

    Regardless, when looking at the big picture, we think it may be time to sell rallies in the market. Until we can see the market extend to fresh new highs, we think the game has changed and we may find ourselves in this "consolidation-mode" for a while. Just a gut-feeling ...

    http://www.businessinsider.com/rich-barry-cautious-on-the-stock-market-2015-9

    so easy a caveman can do it
     
  3. current->1920->2030->1990->dunno
     
  4. Today's trade. MCD is naked. GLD is covered. I was assigned GLD shares last Friday at 107
    trades.JPG
     
  5. Im taking bets, even money, that you wont see SPX 1700 in 2015.
     
  6. What's the rationale?
     
  7. Indecision year, lows from 2014 will hold in 2015 and in 2016 we get the outcome. When was the last time you saw an outside bar in the yearly chart of SPX? Odds are extremely low.
     
  8. I am willing to wait it out, I wouldn't argue that 1700 will happen this year, it will happen during this correction phase IMO. So far SPX corrected by 12%, hardly an average, especially considering it had a run of 3 years without a correction. Isn't it around 20% on average?

    This doesn't look healthy.

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  9. Odds are extremely low????

    Do you know this is a market that no one in their lifetimes has ever witnessed. This is a market that is running on nothing but FED..... meaning anything and I mean ANYTHING is possible.

    I think those odds are actually EXTREMELY HIGH!!!!
     

  10. Im taking that idea of 1700 as well. I don't think August 24/25th were the lows of the year....we are going further down the hole. Even it breaks to the upside Im still sticking with my opinion that markets are headed 30%+ lower and headed into a bear market!
     
  11. if you play what i said correctly with options, it really doesnt matter :)
    Take my bet that we wont hit 1700 SPX in 2015, even money.

    Im backing my call with balls, yours?
     
  12. I don't like time limits, hence I don't trade options. I am not backing my call with balls, just fair bit of money at stake.
     
  13. Of course there is more than a 50% chance of a recession coming....who doesnt see this happening....


    Better than 50% chance recession is coming: Analyst


    The odds of a global recession taking hold in the next 20 months are now better than 50 percent, The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar said Tuesday.

    "Central banks have guaranteed a messy outcome from the reversal of policy," the chief market analyst told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street.""There's going to be a recession when central bank policy reverses. It's inevitable."

    In Europe and Japan, central banks are in the midst of bond-buying programs aimed at propping up their economies, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rates for short-term borrowing near zero since December 2008.

    Read MoreRobert Shiller: THIS is the sign we're in a bubble

    The Fed should raise its fed funds rates when it meets this week, or else the impacts will only get worse the longer it waits, Boockvar said.

    He expects the Federal Open Market Committee will do just that, and will soothe markets with dovish language that assures investors the pace of increases will be gradual. The short-term impact, he said, will not be much different than doing nothing.

    On the other hand, by not taking any action, the Fed would be telling markets there will be a time in the future better suited for monetary policy tightening, and the fact is there is no good time, Boockvar said.

    Investors should view a recession as a "healthy cleansing" that sets up the economy for a better recovery, rather than something to avoid at all costs, he added.

    Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, said he too expects the Fed to announce a rate rise Thursday. He believes a market selloff is primarily a short-term risk.

    "The question is, as we go further out, is this going to be a much more sustained hit to market psychology because the Fed has hiked?" he asked in a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "I'm not so concerned that that's the likely outcome at this point."

    Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG, said investors awaiting a chance to buy stocks after they presumably dip on the central bank's announcement are missing an opportunity presented by the recent stock market selloff.

    Read MoreJeremy Siegel: How a Fed hike could boost stocks

    "If you agree ... that the bull market does not end with the first rate hike, and you think higher equity prices await us in the future, then the investment opportunity has already been presented to you," he told "Squawk on the Street." "The only question is how much further do equities have to run before the inevitable cycle runs its course?"

    Greenhaus said he no longer expects the Fed to announce a change in policy Thursday because markets are no longer expecting that outcome. He said central bankers do not want their first rate hike in more than nine years to be a surprise.

    Tom DiChristopher
     
  14. No worries Rob Insana that guy from cnbc says there wont be any rate hike this week so keep buying stocks, the market should rally about 3% on this outcome by friday, should boost all stocks and create the ultimate rally, remember the fed will always bow down to wall street.
    and as they continue to do so they will only lose more and more and more and more credibility.......
     
  15. If that headline is so true and accurate then how come after years and years and years and years we still have 0% interest rates and QE 1, QE 2 and QE 3???? Im going to say this once again, you cannot compare this market to any market in the past, this market is a market that no has ever witnessed or seen in their lifetimes.....there is no comparison to be made to past market cycles since this entire market cycle is a fed induced one.....



    Wall Street history says stocks can survive Fed rate hike

    Adam Shell
    21 Mins AgoUSA Today
    9
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    COMMENTS



    The words "Fed rate hike" strike fear into stock investors. They fear the party is over once the Federal Reserve starts boosting borrowing costs. But history shows the first rate hike – which the Fed is contemplating now and could come as early as Thursday – doesn't necessarily have to be a bull market killer.

    Sure, the start of a Fed rate-hike cycle – especially considering the last rate hike occurred June 29, 2006 – could cause more volatility (code words for violent market swings) and scares along the way.

    But history shows that stocks don't go down in a straight line after the Fed moves. Stock performance is mixed. In fact, the stock market has posted gains in all sorts of time periods following the Fed's so-called "lift-off" day.

    In the past six rate-hike cycles dating to 1983, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index declined on the day of the Fed's first rate increase three times, or 50% of the time. The biggest Day 1 loss was in February 1994, when the benchmark stock index cratered 2.3%, according to data from Birinyi Associates. In contrast, stocks jumped 2.3% after the first rate hike in January 1987 and 1.6% following the initial increase in June 1999.

    The cause for alarm this time around? The fact the Fed hasn't hiked rates in nearly a decade and has kept short-term rates near 0% for so long that investors and markets have become addicted to so-called cheap money. Some market pundits argue that low rates have been the key driver of the bull run in stocks the past 6½ years, a period when the broad U.S. market more than tripled in value.



    But with the coming shift from an ultra-easy Fed to a less-accommodating Fed, the transition from a period of declining and record low interest rates to a rising-rate environment coupled with investors recent wariness following the stock market's first 10% correction since 2011 and signs of a significant slowdown in China, wariness is high on Wall Street.

    "A rate hike, with a stroke, ends this era," is the way Michael Hartnett, a global investment strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes the coming change in Fed policy.

    Some fear taking the economy off of so-called life support will cause market turmoil. Others say that doomsday scenario goes too far.

    "The latest bugaboo is one that has often been associated with corrections or the onset of bear markets: the start of a Fed rate hike cycle and rising bond yields," Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management said in a recent report titled, "Rising Rates Shouldn't End This Bull Market."

    "Many investors," Doll wrote, "believe that when rates rise, the party is over for stock prices. Historically, however, this has not been the case."

    Historical data from the past six rate-tightening cycles back up his claim. While two of the six cycles saw stocks lower a year after the initial rate hike, the average gain for the S&P 500 in all six periods was 2.6%. And two years after hike No. 1 the market was 14.4% higher, Doll's data show. Still, he points out there were bumps along the way. The stock market, on average, suffers a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 10% in post, rate-hike trading.

    If stocks do take a hit when the Fed hikes, it likely will be a short-lived drop and "prove to be an excellent buying opportunity," Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, argued in a report that stressed rate hikes "should be welcomed not loathed." His data show that corporate profits, U.S. economic growth and S&P 500 performance in past five rate-hike cycles have performed better than normal when the Fed is tightening, as those periods typically occur when the economy is doing well.

    What could dampen volatility this time around, market pros say, is that the Fed has said it will raise rates slowly in an attempt to minimize market disruption. There is a belief on Wall Street that the Fed will hike rates at every other meeting, a pace that is half the usual pace. In short, the speed and magnitude of tightening is most important.

    The Fed's current rate-hike cycle is also starting with yields (pegged at 0% to 0.25%) at much lower levels than the start of past tightening cycles. In the previous six rate-hike cycles the Fed's benchmark borrowing cost, known as the Fed Funds rate, was closer to 5%, on average, according to Nuveen Asset Management. The takeaway: Interest rates have a lot of room to run higher before becoming a major drag on economic growth.

    Maury Harris, global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, dubs the market's Fed angst, "Fedophobia." But, he says, "fears of the Fed are overdone."

    He cites a few reasons why investors should keep their fears in check. For one, monetary policy works with "long lags." That means economic growth and corporate earnings won't fall off a cliff overnight. In fact, "growth tends to accelerate early in Fed tightening cycles," he noted. Second, the Fed's unprecedented period of near zero rates "is likely to be followed by an equally unprecedented slow hiking cycle," Harris argues. So, unless inflation spikes and causes the Fed to move more aggressively than believed, the economy and markets should do fine despite the rate hikes, he believes.

    Typically, the stock market takes a big hit "only after repeated rate hikes," Harris noted. In fact, more aggressive rate-hike cycles that began in March 1998, June 1999 and June 2004 eventually led to recessions, BofA data show. But while the Fed can trigger a recession and bear markets with rate hikes, that occurs only when the Fed is aggressively combating inflation, which at the moment is not flashing warning signals.
     
  16. Intraday looks like a nice place to short.
     
  17. Yeah, I got long SVXY last week and am up about 6%ish, was just debating on closing it out
     
  18. got rid of my longs and i'm full short going into fomc, probably will cover right before 2pm thursday
     

  19. NICE, Im still holding my SVXY, not selling it until after Thursday afternoon or Friday, I know the markets are going to move pretty wildly so Im holding on...Im up $7.00 a share on that, wish I went in with a lot more shares but decided to hold off and play it a little less risky since I know how volatile it can get, As I write this I'm ever so close to adding some CVOL, its trading around .75 cents, it tracks volatility as well and has sold off pretty hard the last day or so, thinking of getting in just for fun to see if I can make a few bucks on it, might by a couple of thousand shares ahead of the fed meeting.....
     
  20. If there's one thing I know about Thursday its that everyone will end up stopped out.
     
  21. Yeah, I still am holding SVXY. I have been trading in and out of it a bit. On this most recent buy I am up $4/share, but I am only in half the position I have been trading.

    I will say, a big part of me thinks regardless of the FED outcome, volatility might drop a little bit after the announcement. Just simply from the removal of that unknown element in the short term. Unless we of course sell off hard or something.
     
  22. Not me
     
  23. Actually, I just went ahead and locked in my gain. Sold at $52.95 thinking it was losing a little steam. I will be looking to enter again on any pullbacks, which HOPEFULLY there will be a decent one in the next 48 hours.
     

  24. well I look at it that if they don't do it in september and october is off the table and janet yellen said she WAS DEFINITELY RAISING RATES this year that means the only month left for the raise in 2015 is in december, so no matter what there will be zero excuses for anyone to ponder when the fed is going to raise rates if they don't do it in September, aside from that I'm hoping the volatility stays, I haven't made on trade this week so far, kind of a boring market the last few days....
     
  25. not one buying opportunity, just straight up since the opening, I think the dow could close north of 350+ today!
     
  26. and I'm an idiot lol, I knew as soon as I sold it would just keep on rallying without me. Oh well, still a decent locked in profit so it is a good day!

    Have any of you all been trading the VIX spreads? Seems like there might be some potential the past few days in some of the flys
     

  27. I know the feeling of selling and seeing it move higher but trust me on SVXY, it will come back down, don't think its going straight back up to $85+ all it takes is a 2-3% sell off in the markets to see SVXY right back in the mid 40's a break to August 24th lows and SVXY would be trading very close $35. Im holding onto to it until Thursday afternoon, for some reason I don't think it matters what the fed does markets are still going to move higher.....Im still knocking myself for not selling my TVIX at around $18-$20 2 weeks ago, its now near $10 and thats up from $5-6 range....I also own XIV in 3 separate accounts at all different price levels so thats why I don't mind if I sell of SVXY now....but still holding until Thursday!
     
  28. No legs in that rally today.
     
  29. [​IMG]
     
  30. damn, what to do what to do, Im looking at a 50/50 chance of a rate hike tomorrow, and the thing is I have no clue where these markets are headed....I really think though if I had to take ONE GUESS I would say HIGHER....

    I think if they raise .25% the markets will feel total relief that the next rate hike isnt coming until 2016, that means they have no worries until next year....
    and if they don't raise well thats just the fed being very dovish yet again and markets will rally on that news so no matter what I take it as an up market no matter what the fed does....and I do think the s$$$p breaks above 2000 which should have everyone jumping in all at once so I think a 2-3% jump in the next 5-7 days is not out of question....however keep some cash on hand to go short

    :D:D:D:D:D
     
  31. Well, I am short, stop few points above ATH SPX, banking on more downside prior to further advances in the index above ATH. More discount is needed to propell index to ATH and beyond.
     
  32. Just sold a 1/4 position in XIV @ $28.25, holding onto the rest going into the fed meeting, the way XIV was falling it seemed like people were rushing on to place protection on tomorrows fed meeting......
     

  33. I literally bought TQQQ only a couple of days before the huge sell off, I rode it all the way from $97.20 DOWN to $65, never added any more shares and never sold, I knew the markets were going to come roaring back and TQQQ was going to move higher.... rode it all the way back up to $100 and sold today at $99.05, talk about volatility....whewwww....glad to be out, now I have some extra $$$ to play with tomorrow for anything the fed throws at the market....
     
  34. Time to start buying DWTI.....BACK in DWTI at $99.00 a little higher than I want to pay but not worried. only bought 1/4 position, will sell above $115-$120
    Will add more below $80, right now still own lots of UWTI so I figure why not play with DWTI as well. GUSH is kicking a$$ today up 12% however just breaking even on it since I jumped in last week at $13.75. Looking to sell that above $15+
     
  35. bot some brent oil for nov at 5000, 4700 stop
     
  36. In DRIP @ 72.40, very small position...first time buying it, huge swing, large spread and little to no volume, figure why not buy some shares...
     
  37. I told you they'd raise 0.25% now much earlier this year and you said in about 20 different posts that there will be NO interest rate hikes this year. Your forecasting skills remain very weak. You know that 30-40% crash you are expecting to occur very soon ... not going to happen, in fact there is pretty much zero chance this will happen at the moment. Corporate profits are too strong and the US economy is actually gaining stability and perhaps strength.

    Fact of the matter is 90% of traders or investors who base their decisions on conspiracy theories and/or short term news will lose money. At some point, you need to realize this and adapt or you are doomed to years of frustration yelling about assorted demons on this board.
     
  38. There are arguments either way as to what will happen in the event of no rate rise and also in the event of a rate rise. No one knows for sure.
     

  39. were not there just yet, will know in 24 hours if they raised rates, if anything like I said even if THEY DO RAISE rates to .25 or .50% by say mid 2016, the next recession will take rates right back to 0% thats why Im saying 0% rates will be here for a long long long long time....any hint of a recession and wham, rates go right back to 0%, meanwhile they should be at least 3% today. Fed has nothing to work with....zero exit strategy, remember that.
     
  40. If things are so rosy, you should be in stocks rather than in cash since 10/2014.
     
  41. It will be interesting how it plays out. Monthly chart, technically, from countertrend perspective is a classic sell (SPX climbing towards 20MA, 7MA about to cross 20MA), whereas fundamentally a lot of folks 'in the know' are of an opinion that there aren't many arguments that could be made in defence of a start of bear market, with whom I wouldn't argue personally, as I do not pretend that I understand macro economics, who does anyway? Like it or not, sentiment will be the ultimate judge.
     
  42. everyone is expecting no rate hike, followed by upside

    that's why it's very plausible for the opposite to occur
     
  43. Sold my SPY 200 calls for 100% gain. About to ditch a remaining ES 2000 call. I had a good feeling this would happen which is why I picked up those lotto tickets a week or so ago when everyone was talking about "MORE DOWNSIDE AHEAD!"
     
  44. That's a huge wedge on Naz daily...I am staying short.
     
  45. C'mon guys - that was just the pre-session. The real session starts at 8pm ET and will be picking up steam by German open.
     
  46. greatest pullback is 300 points, until that is surpassed... market remains in up trend
    -- indicators don't means shiz and fundamentals don't either
     
  47. Come on technicians, how many say it's going up?

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  48. Imo it's not like it isn't going to retest 2020-2030 before it heads back down - especially in the kind of markets we have today which relentlessly retest. It probably will indeed go down but you might be too early.

    The general speculative dumb money expectation is short right now and while they may be right they usually get raped beforehand.
     
  49. Aftermath, what were folks saying back then? As always, two camps, up & down :) IMO this is the decider for markets, not calling for a top, just continuation of the correction.

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  50. 2 days of nice gains..Dow up nearly 400 points...should be an interesting 2 days especially tomorrow afternoon... I honestly have no idea what to expect...but I know the markets will probably move at least 2% up or down.
     
  51. today is gonna be crazy. I sit in front of the computer hours earlier before the release of the federal reserve's decision of the interest rate.
    mymajia in asia
     
  52. Janet Yellen is the most attractive woman in the wolrd today, I bet.
     
  53. @Autodidact look at the 7/20 MA relationship during uptrend and over last year+, FED said they will raise rates, perhaps not today, but they will, hence my opinion that this does not look bullish on macro basis.

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  54. if fed doesn't hike, they're spineless
     
  55. 7 years of ZIRP is proof positive that they have no spine.
     
  56. fed will not raise rates.
    z not different than any other fed meeting
     
  57. I see at least a 2% move going into the close

    I think no rate hike and stocks could rally at least 3%+ in the next week...a rate hike I think markets rally since wallstreet will be totally relieved
     
  58. Markets not making a move until the fed report..they haven't gone anywhere in the last few hours...
     
  59. expect volatility and pare down any existing positions.
     
  60. Whew 1 hour away...nearly a decade in the making...that's actually insane how long it's been since the last hike...
     
  61. Steve liesman says they aren't going to hike...ha
    If they don't the fed is making a huge mistake...rates should becat 3-4% by now not 0%
     
  62. Big bet in TLT that says fed is not going to raise. Someone or something bought a huge amount of options the last 6 minutes. That could be a clue
     
  63. No chance the fed is going to hike, question is has the market already priced that in by now...
     
  64. The micro-crash left quite a vacuum to be filled...The Russell 2000 has rallied more than the other indicies, but it was the leader on the way down and it's pretty close to that major resistance while SPY probably still has another 40 points to get there...
     

  65. Dow up over 400 points this week so it might be priced in but I'm still thinking the initial response is rally
     
  66. Wall Street gave 30% chance of rate hike today, 90% in January, general consensus is that they shouldn't as market hasn't priced in hike yet.
     
  67. 8 damn minutes
     
  68. Fed never disappoints markets
     
  69. No change
     
  70. VIX fell

    that's the only surprise
     
  71. head fake and here we go, back to 1900
     
  72. good opportunity to buy some cheap shares....
     
  73. if it closes near the high of the day, i'll buy more
     
  74. ZERO RISK TO 1900 CHOO CHOO ALL ABOARD
     
  75. Epic pump and dump.
     
  76. SELL SELL SELL WOOH BABY
     
  77. Come on!!!!!!!!! ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡
     
  78. aka battle of the bots.
     
  79. 9/17/2015

    the day bulls got trapped
     
  80. You know the bulls are in big trouble when stocks tank on days like this.
     
  81. Didn't you want me gone based on what I said? And now you are calling for downside? Never stop being amazed at folks changing their views jumping on a bandwagon, I just sold my shares, options, futures after the fact, take a frigging stand I say and call your positions beforehand and not after the fact :)
     
  82. i've been short for a little while now
     
  83. Anyway - got short 1987.. expect rundown to 1960ish.
     
  84. Consider too that the Fed might have unintentionally telegraphed their own perception of a weak economy and not the continually-growing-in-strength economy they speak of.

    All in all, if you zoom out, this lack of action really isn't that surprising.
     
  85. short term target 1950 ES
     
  86. wakey wakey America, looking ugly out there.
     
  87. And predictably so, after yesterday's ugly reversal.
     
  88. Thank God for spread betting firms that allow traders with smaller accounts to participate in macro moves without potential wipeout of capital. My stop is still intact, it's not an easy task to fake a monthly chart! Overwhelming majority of daytraders are driven by a question - when will it happen? The right question is - will it happen?
     
  89. what's your price target by end of 2015?
     
  90. I just answered that in previous post in a way (edited). I don't have a target per se on this bet, if and when monthly chart signals a buy, then I will look at reversing position or I may just lose on this one. My guesstimate is 1,700 SPX as the next target before any new highs, I don't have a time schedule :)
     
  91. Looks like another round of pre-market margin call liquidation again. Deja Vu.
     
  92. See if the fed would have raised rates I think this mornings dow opening would have been 200+ points.....

    Yesterday I sold off some of my longs minutes after the announcement

    SOLD UDOW @ $57.89
    SOLD SVXY @ $58.12
    SOLD NUGT @ $3.27

    and sold DGAZ @ $6.33

    then

    ADDED JDST @ $8.68
    ADDED ERY @ $27.75
     


  93. HAHAH DWTI nearing $110

    Taking my 10% profits very soon
     

  94. hah you didn't tell anyone.....I TOLD YOU they weren't raising rates, the economy cant even handle a .25% increase.....whats going to happen in December? NOTHING again, the fed is too weak, the economy is worthless and knowing the economy cant handle a .25% tells you that were still in crisis mode!!!
     
  95.  
  96. OUT of DWTI at $108.16
    OUT of ERY at $30.04

    :D
     
  97. ADDED TO JDST @ $7.70, bought yesterday at $8.68.

    Cost average $8.06
     
  98. WHO ACTUALLY BELIEVES THIS.....stop with the LIES.....just admit its down because there are more sellers than buyers.....stop with the excuses!!!!!!

    "FAT FINGER" Shut the Fu$k up!

    'Fat finger' error causes FTSE 100 to plunge as much as 2%
    Arjun Kharpal | Catherine Boyle
    4 Mins AgoCNBC.com
    148
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    15
    COMMENTSBT, HSBC and BP saw sharp falls in their share prices before recovering.
     
  99. LONG SVXY @ 53.15
    Only day trade. looking for $54+
     
  100. Did Rickshaw man blow up and never returning?
     
  101. 55 times in a row the fed has put up excuses not to raise rates the last 5-6 years...


    The only thing the fed can do is give us negative interest rates and that's whats going to happen.....
     
  102. In other words, a not so subtle move towards asset confiscation.
     


  103. I agree with this guy....sounds like the exact words I would say...
     
  104. I agree on this one. They said they will start raising, maybe they will a little, as soon as markets start tanking FED will initiate negative interest rate policy, which will either backfire straightaway or that will create a huge asset bubble.
     


  105. As soon as the markets start collapsing ANY rate hike that they push forward will immediately be taken back, that's why I think by even the year 2020 rates will still be at 0%, THEY CANNOT RAISE RATES, they might make you believe they are going to but its all lies lies and more lies.....the market will eventually dictate the forth coming fed funds rate move...and the fed will have ZERO control over it...
     
  106. I'm short the ftse! It went to my target and then recovered...but i forgot to put my limit order in grrr...might have to leave the position over the weekend
     
  107. Yeah, it's disgusting. As others have mentioned we already have a de-facto "NIRP". A few loons on another thread actually believe that we are below 2% inflation and/or in deflation with our current ZIRP. Truth be told, they'd be hard pressed to prove that in aggregate there is anything less than 5+% inflation in the economy...After all if we are in such a low inflation environment, why the rallying cry to DOUBLE the minimum wage.
     
  108. In that case why would you ever short stocks, because why would anyone sell their stocks for zero yielding cash?
     
  109. In the UK they are masking effects of real CPI with tax credits, that bump up low wages, why are they low? Cause actual inflation is substantially higher than the official one. Remove tax credits and people will soon wake up to the actual inflation.
     
  110. This is a serious question. If you were a pension fund, and you see cash at negative rates and SPX at 2% dividend yield, which would you buy? Yes, you think the market might crash like 2008, but will anyone want to bet that the market is higher 20 years from now anyway? In that case, SPX will return 2%+capital gain %.
     
  111. :rolleyes:
     
  112. It is a valid question and an impossible situation for a pension fund manager. Maybe it is significantly higher in 20 years or maybe we become Japan...who really knows. In the interim, it's a pretty strong bet that the "boom/bust" cycle will continue and that is the real problem. If pension funds need to actually meet obligations and the S&P drops 30%, rallies 70%, or whatever the series might be, then how do they invest?
     
  113. In all seriousness, posting like this just means you've joined the lunatic fringe of S2007S and some others ( most got tired and left after being owned from 2010-2013 ) that are essentially clueless about how the economy and markets work. The level of discourse on here has become unintelligent, superstitious, and not at all useful to investing or trading.

    In 5 years, this will be very clear, just as it was going over what posters like S2007S and Nitro put on this site from 2009-2011++ and what actually happened up til now.
     
  114. We are here to be enlightened by you, so since you are here too then might as well post analyses rather than ridicule :)
     
  115. I second that.
     
  116. Yes, could Nine_Ender enlighten us as to how his interest rate model assured him that there would be a tightening at yesterday's Fed meeting.
     
  117. This is a classic politician talk, we will do this & that, but when? This way I can also say I will pay my taxes & bills whenever my financial situation improves, I will be closely monitoring it :)
     
  118. Markets are tired of the pathetic ways the fed plays...they have now lost every ounce of credibility they once had...remember that saying "don't fight the fed"...Well this will be the first time in history you will be able to fight them and win. They are done...yesterday was what the markets wanted to hear one last time to witness that the fed is just worthless and full of lies when it comes to rates and economic forecasts...
     
  119. Their public face might be damaged, but behind the scenes there is still lots that will be done. When convenient, we will still hear one of them flippantly talk about NIRP or more QE...This will never be over with...Just look at how they jawboned it down...Aug 18th, rate rise likely, market drops like a rock, culminating with Aug 24th. A few days later, rate hike off the table...market puts in the lows...Jackson Hole...one member says we should hike, another says we should NIRP...seriously, ever since I started trading, the Fed has become more and more interventionist. It used to be you'd have to watch your back with Greenspan's intra-day rate cuts (but they were once a year or so), otherwise they stayed on the sidelines...Now, you have 10 people offering all of their dissenting opinions at any given time...
     
  120.  
  121. The exact time they raise isn't important ( see point 2 below ); there are two aspects to why I posted.

    One, the situation in Canada is instructive of what may happen in the US. In 2010, Canada realized that it's economy wasn't in trouble and raised twice. That despite already running slightly higher rates then the US. Those rates lasted 4 years, with smaller decreases this year to help with the severe Oil impact on Alberta. With the US economy far more stable now then in 2009, I could easily see a similar interest rate plan in the US. No guarantees on timing, but Canada didn't go in the toilet because interest rates were higher. Even a plummeting Oil price hasn't really killed the economy ( beyond Alberta ) or the Federal government budget ( a small surplus ).

    Two, there are at least 2 posters on this thread claiming that US interest rates will remain at zero for 10-20 years, and at least 3 posters claiming the US will have negative interest rates in the near future. This to me is a ridiculous premise in 2015. I am presenting a counter opinion to these frequently discussed ideas.
     
  122. The ole "the economy is much better now" argument. Let's see where we are in 2 years.
     
  123. Look Nine, we are all speculators, at the end of the day it doesn't matter what we think may happen to US interest rates, what matters is how we extract profit from our analysis whatever they may be. I mostly trade the chart, I do participate in discussions, but mostly to kill the time. I am no expert and even if I was - how many of them get it right?
     
  124. Well yeah, if you only raise rates to 1% generally your economy will not go into the toilet… the Bank of Canada is pegged to the dollar through its reserves anyway, so rates will never vary much from America, right now your at 75 basis points to the Fed's 50.

    It's not so much that raising rates will cause an economic crash, its that you can't raise rates significantly because there is simply no inflation, your trapped.

    Globalization and free trade have created a deflationary trap. I think I'm turning Japanese.
     

  125. Think about it. We're already years into 0% interest rates, the US has zero growth, I wouldn't believe those pathetic GDP figures...without QE 1 2 & 3 GDP figures would be negative.... With the trillions in debt the US of A is in rates aren't going anywhere... And like I said wait till the next crisis that's coming and watch the fed studder on Capitol hill with more worthless dribble...the only way is Negative interest rates....its coming. QE 4 and negative rates.....
     
  126. it's obvious that there will be a flush

    the real question is if this is going to be like 2011 or more significant
     
  127. Maybe I am going paranoid, a little :), now that I keep hearing that BOE is considering negative interest rates AND possibility of abolishing cash (other CBs also mentioned that) I look at Gold & Silver charts and it's starting to make sense why they may be possibly basing. If inflation is under control, then metals become a perfect hedge in a society that's been stripped of physical money, as that reporter has quite rightly noted - no cash, no bank runs. Can't withdraw virtual money. But we would still need some form of physical money and precious metals (especially silver as it's affordable) will then replace paper money. That's what I am thinking.

    [​IMG]
     
  128. Yes, the "trial balloons" are always floated by some peripheral pundit about some outlandish policy theory to gauge public sentiment. Newspapers and the general media have done it for many years now (with instant feedback via online polls)...If the initial reaction is overwhelmingly negative, then it is shelved for awhile, until it will possibly have more support...10 years ago you would have been labelled a tinfoil hat wearing, "conspiracy theorist" if you predicted that we would follow the Japanese with Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)...you would have literally been laughed out of the room...7 years of ZIRP have now become just accepted policy, as if the majority see nothing wrong with it...hence, we have the periphery now talking about an outright ban of cash and NIRP...Nine_Ender is part of the herd calling it a "conspiracy theory", but he is also a guy who doesn't believe in bear markets either (aka a "true believer")...hence, the conditioning will need to continue until he comes on this thread and argues in favor of NIRP and a ban of physical cash to "save the markets".
     
  129. makes some sense to retest 2000/2007 highs purely from TA point of view
     
  130. Yep, the trial balloon at work.
     
  131. NIRP rumors would eventually show up in another bull leg in the treasury market. Cant hide it.
    Smart money will be well ahead, front running the fed. I think the fed already owns a few treasuries and liquidity is maybe not so good in treasury markets as of now.
    I dont think its a conspiracy at all to consider this possibility. Wasnt there some verbage of NIRP at FOMC meeting? This is new and a little scary that the fed is so concerned about present
    Global macro. Sure makes passing on the Sep. rate hike palatable.

    Jeez, post FOMC look at them bonds go! Probably just a normal adjustment to the dovish fed. Already a couple fed mouthpeices wheeled out to warn of impending hikes.
     

  132. Sold SVXY @ $53.65, tiny tiny profit...

    Rode it down $3 and back up $3...timing was off on that trade but least Im glad to know I got out for a little profit, will get back in soon under $50
     

  133. Sold off about 70% of that position at $8.55 this morning

    :D
     


  134. Took the other side of volatility today and went long UVXY @ $47.45
    Looks like markets are weakening.

    Nasdaq already lost 1/2 its gains!
     


  135. SOLD @ $49.56

    HAHA

    :D:p:D:p:D:p

    FREE money
     
  136. this week is going to be ugly for stocks

    futures broke through ascending triangle and today got rejected at previous support
     

  137. it could be, I wasn't surprised by the triple digit opening this morning, what I am more surprised about is the selling over the last 2 hours....biotech is collapsing in the nasdaq, I came close to wanting to short biotech last week with BIS, but waited and today its up over $2.00 a share...
     
  138. eeeek nasdaq off 30 points....bio tech is really hurting the markets today
     
  139. As usual the stock index futures will rise overnight, like they do 90% of the time. Its the easiest way to make free money, at 2-3 AM CST every night they pop up. The financial media will tell the waking Americans....LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER OPEN ON WALL STREET......wash rinse and repeat.
     
  140. Haha, Rickshaw - why are you only here on runups? You know you can go short right?
     
  141. Rickshaw picked the wrong night to go long.
     
  142. damn...es been diving hard since around 3:30am..not sure whats up
     
  143. looks like yen moving started it off but europe taking it to extreme...this cant be just VW and some low copper prices
     
  144. has hallmarks of something out of china or asia...msm not talking about it much
     
  145. reuters saying data out of china (which came out just after the china close) is that imports of basic metals (copper nickel) are VERY low and that london sold the miners hard on that news.. es straight down 30 points now
     
  146. Correction hasn't run its course yet.
     
  147. he finally found some money to trade after blowing up his account in august, put it all in on overnight futures and blew his account up again
     
  148. Sim accounts dont blow up, you just hit reset :D
     
  149. Looks like another gap and go day.
     
  150. Long SVXY @ 50.95
     
  151. I am not surprised the market is down today. I am surprised you are not taking profits.
    :)
     

  152. taking profits....hahah

    Illl take profits while the collapse is occurring....DOW will be off 30-40% by then, don't you worry. We have a long way to go, the bear market and crisis will be bigger and badder than 2007 hahah
     
  153. More and more talk about abolishment of cash and introduction of virtual money. Seems nuts, but than again what is the saying - drastic times call for drastic measures, they can spin it in all sorts of positive ways, ultimate goal is of course to prohibit bank runs and generate billions in transaction costs, levies and negative IRs.
     
  154. LOL, turns out the market only gaps up every single night, until it doesnt.
     
  155. You think we will break 2009 lows? Quite a bearish call.
     
  156. Yes, the "roach motel". This is how all "conspiracy theories" turn into "conspiracy facts". No one would have believed that we could have close to a decade of ZIRP either...
     

  157. Hard to call that now, with the fed out of everything possible to prop up this market I could lean back on 2009 lows, however Im going to be more conservative and say somewhere around 11,000-12,000....
     
  158. Yeah, it will test well in a low vix, centrally planned bull market...it's almost robotic...just like in 07, once the market starts having some >2% down days, that trade blows up (and it does so spectacularly)...after all, 8/24 alone would wipe out probably a years worth of gains (if not, many months of them)...
     
  159. Yeah, I trade the downside far different than the long side...There will always be some form of intervention (typically short term, but still significant)...it might include buying short term calls to hedge some LEAP's puts or whatever, but it still has to be done...
     
  160. SPX death cross on monthly 9 pts apart, Naz still holding 3 up
     

  161. There will always be some form of intervention, I believe the next form of intervention will be the fed clearly calling out that there will be ZERO interest rate hikes for the rest of 2015, the next is NEGATIVE interest rates which I have been calling out for months, and more QE.....trust me they will do anything and everything to prop this market up once its in free fall, what we saw on August 24th was just a sample of whats to come, the markets are headed back to those August 24th lows once again, once they break below that will be entering a new bear market, many claim the bull market is still here, its not, its over with, 6 years old, how many more years do they want to squeeze out of this bull market, the new bear market is coming very soon, sell every and all rallies and get ready for plenty of downside to come.....its going to be quite a picture when the fed tries to save the economy once again, its going to be hilarious to see them struggle to find a way to get out of this next crisis...
     
  162. This is turning into a global stock market rout, I don't think any market is still higher YTD, the smart money who sold during the highs in Mar/Apr are not going to come back any time soon.
     
  163. I know they will do anything...we've got at least a decade to prove it, lol...

    It speaks volumes about the mindset of those "in charge"...it's become a political CYA approach to managing expectations and asset reflation...IOW, there is too much pride on the line that this could ever fail and that the over-privileged boomers with there constant expectation that every bust requires an immediate "boom cycle" to bail them out...

    Someone on a blog commented recently that everyone he spoke with about the 8/24 "glitch" seemed blase about the whole affair...they don't even bother worrying about a potential bear market or "correction"...the complacency is unprecedented amongst those who sit on their mutual funds...on the contrary, the people who actually pay attention to this stuff are on the other side of the extreme...it's a very strange dichotomy nowadays...the traditional mutual fund manager who always see a bull market (aka Tom Lee's of the world) vs. the leveraged hedge funds that re-position and/or use the Fed put, but will bail en masse if they lose confidence in it.
     
  164. those days leading up to 8/24 showed what is really underneath this market...alot of air...that Fed meeting last week gave this market almost a month to chop sideways/higher...
     
  165. LMAO, ET.
     
  166. You like megaphones? INDU monthly is within megaphone, so who knows :)
     
  167. yea..gotta love it, especially when the thread is titled "zero risk in the SP500" and the thread was started many many moons ago. And yet rickshaw still pulling those wheels overnight on the ES and missing some eyebrows by now
     
  168. In all fairness, when the market goes into it's robotic uptrend, it looks like a genius strategy...or the fact that literally any and every dip can be bought with impunity.
     
  169. We won't even take 2014 lows this year, it is the typical sept-oct seasonality.

    Past 2016, we can re-examine.
     
  170. At the same time nothing is definite in markets.
     
  171. Goes to show that the stock market is all about conditioning. Many people here tried to short the S&P in the last few years and they were crushed, these guys have now been replaced with permabulls who'd buy every single dip without giving a second thought about it, these people too, will be crushed eventually.
     
  172. Very true...basically we are always working against the "hard wiring" in our brains...I think that the "speed" of the market also plays into this tendency...for instance, a very slow choppy uptrend brings out lots of faders, who scale short and then one large gap higher and they capitulate and it reverses...likewise, recently the downtrends have had a similar choppiness and whipsaw quality that attracts alot of faders in the other direction...
     
  173. Don't see the point of such long term predictions.

    BTW Im taking bets, even money, that 2014 lows hold this year, Marketsurfer is on, anyone else is free to join, any amount is fine, let me know if you interested or anyone else for that matter.
     
  174. Yea the bear market would be over real quick if we dropped 20% in a day, these 1-2% selloffs followed by frequent backfills induce complacency and lead many traders to trade counter trend without realising that it can sometimes be deadly.
     
  175. I am already Short SPX, so will pass, thanks. My bet is based upon continuation of correction, not on a specific level per se, no new highs until correction is complete.
     
  176. This may become the future of trading...binary sidebets. :)
     
  177. long CVOL @ .75

    will sell above $.90-$1.00
     
  178. Almost time for Suze Orman and Cramer to scream about not raising rates at the next Fed meeting...oops that already happened.
     
  179. Long NUGT $2.72
     
  180. But if I was to suggest a level, then I would have said that 200ma zone on weekly seems like a reasonable target, perhaps even surpassing it a bit (if SPX corrects by 21% it makes target of 1685 , creating some sort of panic in the media followed by a hard rally towards monthly 20ma, which is above current valuation.

    Am I being unreasonable? :)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     

  181. Sold off rest of the entire position in JDST at $9.72

    Now back in NUGT...

    Rinse and Repeat!!!
     
  182. You are so awesome!
     
  183. I'm of the opinion that we'll see a face ripping short squeeze before we get the real correction everyone keeps positioning for. Particularly with the "spirit" of this 6 year bull market.

    Let everyone else get blown the fuck out first - then get filled at the highs.
     
  184. Obviously I am biased, but in light of possibility of the above I placed stop above ATH. My eyes tell me it's a bit too late for that sort of rally. Which level you were thinking they may squeeze it to?
     

  185. I know
     
  186. Your stop is 10% away? That is some loss if it is hit.
     
  187. Okay. I admit I have two accounts and I am bored. You are awesome. No, YOU are awesome!
     
  188. tomorrow = up....
    Just go long before the close for free money tomorrow
     
  189. I just don't think we're done with 2010-2040 yet. If everyone we're like "BTFD!" and some half ass bullishness V'd its way back out of here and up id say that's a good shorting opportunity. But these past couple weeks its just total doom and gloom.

    Now don't get me wrong deep down I want to see a 50% correction and all that - but i also want to make money.

    Romik why are you moving your stop even beyond ATH? That's the equivalent of "I'm gonna make the potential loss even higher because I want to allow myself even more room to be right - up until the point I'm dead wrong."
     
  190. Many thought 7/2007 was the ATH and then we had 10/2007. Of course it crashed. The question is who is short when it does.
     
  191. I kind of think we already got it...without that Fed meeting on the docket, this market had nothing but air underneath it...
     
  192. Yes, in mid-August I was looking for that as well (which is why I dumped alot of puts, just before the 8/24 collapse...ugh)...you guys might be right...the "price action", if I can even call it that any longer, is so skittish, illiquid that anything can spark this thing either direction.
     
  193. I did just that but I think it will sell off after the open tomorrow.
     
  194. Is there such thing as the ultimate place to have a stop? Sure isn't in any books that I read, trialed various stop placements personally. IMO there isn't. I haven't adjusted the stop, it was there since I posted my entry, big chart, big stop. Obviously I have positioned accordingly. It's a solid bet based on what I am seeing.
     
  195. Impeccable commission :p
     
  196. china data missed and futures gapped down

    i think this may actually be a bear market, china isn't reversing trend any time soon
     
  197. Why I listen to you and some rickshaw man?
    :(
     
  198. Oz has now put in 3 lower peaks, this market is about to puke.
     
  199. Futures tumbling again tonite on weak PMI numbers out of China....

    But no worries they should turn around by early morning...
     
  200. I kinda thought ES might have moved down 50 handles by the close of the US session so that they could bounce it by this morning US session. But it closed down only 180 on the Dow (I show Dow here because its a meter of market psychology) and that suggested to me it would not bounce and continue down...wasn't really a vigorous enough sell-off to warrant traders coming in and taking the other side. So the psychology suggested another approx 150 down on the Dow today.
     
  201. The real problem here is that there has been chatter for days now during the overnight sessions that China is still heavily propping their stock market and heavily controlling currency and economic data news. So its a guessing game as to how bad it is over there (think massive uncertainty).

    It is well known that China foreign reserves has dropped precipitously since this Summer and that China are selling US treasuries in order to provide those US dollar reserves. And then you have XI Jinping in the US now taking pure fantasy and misinformation openly in front of crowds here.
     
  202. A lot of economic headlines these days... even mum is getting curious

    upload_2015-9-23_14-14-51.png
     
  203. one thing i noticed was that they ran crude way back up to positive into the Chicago close yesterday and that would certainly offer a reason for the /es to bounce into positive this am in NY.

    also a decouple US from Europe. USD get strong which means euro lower against the dollar making exports to US cheaper. Dax bouncing nicely throughout the session on this dynamic. VW still down another 8%
     
  204. noddyboy
    "I did just that but I think it will sell off after the open tomorrow."

    S2007S
    "Just go long before the close for free money tomorrow"

    Both sirs are looking very correct here. Looking very much like a bounce and green into the NY open (could be up by 1% by then) but noddyboy may have gotten closer as the timing suggests (we started moving up pretty early in london session and moving up since) that by the time NY opens it might be ready for a trend back downward. Looks like selling into any bounce will be the order of the day in NY but who knows what msm bullish tales they have to tell.
     
  205. As usual the futures are up....Shocker! Stock index futures rise overnight 90% of the time.
     
  206. VIX keeps creeping higher, higher highs/lows.
     
  207. True, if there were no stops. But those without stops might be -20% unlevered on 8/24
     
  208. Maybe I'm not comprehending your post, but from my perspective, those who did have physical stops in the market (on 8/24) got completely screwed. Even though those prices still stand on the many etf's, very few retail traders could get in at those prices...
     
  209. Lockhart had some tales to tell on msm today :( Then Yellen speaks tommorrow..so the bullshot meter will rise greatly and will need boots to wade through the sh*t
     
  210. what a boring day, even my VIX ETFS were down on this down day.....market had lost all direction mid day, I even had no clue where to go, was going to place a trade on DWTI under $100 but walked away for a little bit only to see it up 10% in less than a couple of hours, sold off the rest of my ERY for a tiny profit, tomorrow it will probably surge 5%, who knows. All I know is today was BORING!
     
  211. What would be totally sick is an epic short squeeze back up to 2030 to shake out all the pile on shorts and incite euphoria amongst the "this time is different" bulls.

    Europe wanted no part of that China PMI hadouken last night and Japan will be back open again after 2 days holiday as well.

    Heck even Niederhoffer called the local bottom (no doubt using TA of course):

    image.jpg
     
  212. I am sticking to my outlook, more downside prior to any new highs, CAT is looking like crap, possible breakdown tomorrow.
     
  213. As usual the futures will rise overnight, happens 90% of the time.
     
  214. yea on that same note, seems that trading the ES during the Asian and London session offers much more transparency and much less manipulation (abit lower volume/more slippage). Your comments may come true to some extent because the Fed, without the ability to lower rates and on the cusp of a rate rise, may resort to desperation moves and comments, constant jawboning and offering longs many chances to squeeze shorts in mid NY session as overall sentiment gets more and more bearish (gloom and doom).

    PS: CAT led this whole move way back in late July (buying the Dip in CAT in May would have been brutal). I got to remember to keep CAT on one of my always on streaming charts...old school guys are patting themselves on back lately for keeping Dow utilities on permanent screen chart and it did indeed pay off late in the summer..if I only had 1 more monitor, wait 2 more monitors..oh hell 3 more monitors on my setup
     
  215.  
  216. I have my doubts that VN is ever bearish...
     
  217. I think it used to be 95% of the time...Caveat Emptor: the 10% it doesn't = financial death...
     
  218. weird stuff happening overnight in china session.

    Longtime CNBC Hong Kong host Bernie lo, who often speaks his mind on air, is missing now for 2 weeks and presumed to be held by people's party security personnel for making slanderous statements against China economic policy. His show has been moved out of Hong Kong and to London as a night show hosted by london personnel, then at 10pm eastern US time, the normal singapore programming along with aussie based segments begins. Bernie's female co host has been whisked out of the country and curently appears on the london morning segment.

    In other news:

    The World Bank sought to head off accusations on Friday that it had bowed to Chinese pressure and censored itself by removing a contentious chapter on the country’s financial system from a report on china.

    After releasing its latest assessment of the state of the Chinese economy this week, the World Bank quietly removed from its website a chapter that delineated “reform priorities in China’s financial sector”.

    The original chapter, published on Wednesday along with the rest of the bank’s latest china news, gave warning that “the poor performance of the financial system” had confirmed previous assessments that the system was “unbalanced, repressed, costly to maintain and unstable”.

    It also highlighted “risks stemming from wasteful investment, over-indebtedness and a weakly regulated shadow-banking system”.
     
  219. Another day, another gap down on the SPX.
     
  220. old yeller is speaking today, that might be the catalyst for a steeper decline
     
  221. Meanwhile in ENGLAND the FTSE just couldn't stay up...Quick queenie, say SOMETHING! Just think it's Xmas...

    [​IMG]
     
  222. Looks like the 90% probability is shrinking lol
     

  223. NUGT UP 12% today,

    sweetness :D
     
  224. CAT doing a bunch of layoffs and cutting revenue outlook.....

    IF that doesn't signal a global slowdown I don't know what does.....


    Never in their 90 year history have revenues fallen 4 years in a row

    SELL SELL SELL

    Markets headed for a BEART MARKET!!!!!





    Caterpillar announced Thursday that it expects to permanently reduce its workforce by 4,000 to 5,000 by the end of 2016.

    This comes as part of a corporate restructuring that the firm said will lower operating costs by about $1.5 billion annually once implemented.

    The company also lowered its guidance for 2015, saying sales and revenues for the year are now expected to be about $48 billion—$1 billion lower than the previous outlook of about $49 billion. The Thursday announcement also said that expected 2016 sales and revenues will be about 5 percent below this year.

    Read MoreCramer: What's wrong with Caterpillar? Everything

    Shares of Caterpillar—which has a market cap of about $42 billion—fell more than 6 percent in premarket trading right after the announcement. Once the market opened, the stock traded down more than 7 percent.

    Beyond the short-term expected layoffs, Caterpillar said that its total workforce reduction could amount to more than 10,000 people—including possible manufacturing closures through 2018.

    "We are facing a convergence of challenging marketplace conditions in key regions and industry sectors -- namely in mining and energy," Doug Oberhelman, the company's chairman and CEO, said in a news release. "While we've already made substantial adjustments as these market conditions have emerged, we are taking even more decisive actions now. We don't make these decisions lightly, but I'm confident these additional steps will better position Caterpillar to deliver solid results when demand improves."

    The company also noted in its restructuring announcement that 2015 is the company's third consecutive down year for sales and revenues—and 2016 "would mark the first time in Caterpillar's 90-year history that sales and revenues have decreased four years in a row."

    Oberhelman pointed to areas of global weakness in explaining the company's move.

    "...several of the key industries we serve—including mining, oil and gas, construction and rail—have a long history of substantial cyclicality. While they are the right businesses to be in for the long term, we have to manage through what can be considerable and sometimes prolonged downturns," he said in the announcement.

    Read MoreCaterpillar CEO: Economy not pushing Fed to hike

    The construction and mining equipment manufacturer said it lowered its guidance because of "broadly weaker business conditions" in its three largest segments: construction industries, energy and transportation, and resource industries. The largest sales and revenue decline has come from the company's oil and gas-related business, Caterpillar said.

    Thursday's announced workforce reduction follows the company's total workforce reduction of more than 31,000 since mid-2012.
     
  225. CAT down over 7%
     
  226. Nice call!
     


  227. JUST SOLD @ $3.06

    12.5% RETURN IN 2 DAYS


    :D:p

    BACK IN JDST @ $8.85!!!!!

    JDST PRICE TARGET $10+
     
  228. I didn't trade that :) thanks
     
  229. Watch for 16,000, a break below that and we could be back to AUGUST 24th lows in no time....
    I think were headed to AUGUST 24th lows soon, we might get a bounce but those are opportunities to sell, not buy, lot of talking heads on cnbc think this bull market is still intact, its not...the bear market is coming and is ever so close.
     
  230. PICTURE TIME......all the sad faces on wall street, I love it. wait till the bear market sets in, they will be showing tons of sad wallstreeters on the floor....boo hoo boo hooooooo.....


    UH OH YELLEN speaks again, she will just talk up the economy and offer wall street lots of dovish talk.....maybe after she speaks the markets will recover 1/2 their losses.
     
  231. Bought a little more GUSH on the dip at $10.25, Cost Average now down to $12.00 from $13.75!

    This thing can easily move 10-15% in a single day.
     
  232. Took a little time but all these positions are in the GREEN!!!

    SOLD all SDOW today @ $23.90, only a tiny profit, dow should break below 16,000 now since i just got rid of all my shares :) will buy back SDOW below $22.50
    SOLD all ERY yesterday at $31.62, small profit, will buy back ERY below $30

    STILL Holding
    TZA
    SQQQ
    FAZ
     
  233. MORE predictions of negative interest rates:


    Societe Generale's Albert Edwards believes that the Federal Reserve should lower its benchmark rate below zero during the next economic downturn.

    Negative rates are a last-resort monetary policy tool that central banks use to crush deflation and encourage consumer spending.


    [​IMG]


    http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-negative-us-interest-rates-2015-9
     

  234. GUSH is gushing, up over $11 a share right now
     
  235. Did I mention how awesome you are?
     
  236. Bought back ERY on the dip under $31.50 for a trade back to $32.50+
     

  237. yes you did.....

    thanks again for saying how awesome I am
     
  238. Here are my trades on one of my accounts

    Screen Shot 2015-09-24 at 2.48.06 PM.png
     
  239. all this short covering :confused:

    days like this make me think this could be like the 2011 correction and back to ATH
     
  240. back in UVXY @ $51.45
     

  241. you wouldn't expect that after that CAT news out this morning....if you bought the dow down over 200 points start unwinding some positions.

    I sold all my SDOW at $23.90, will buy back after next triple digit dow up day
    Bought GUSH $10.25
    Went back in ERY $31.45
    Went back in UVXY $51.45
     
  242. Is this the "real" market that you have been hoping for all of 2014?
     

  243. Its getting there....once I see the fed panic and the bear market then we will see a "real" market.....when we see the fed having its first unscheduled fed emergency meeting then we know things are getting real....
     
  244. Naz is the index that's delaying downside and looks like AAPL stands to bounce tomorrow.
     
  245. You guys here how Yellen had "health issues" at her UMass talk and ES/6E decided to move 50+ ticks on it?



    Definitely check this one out:

     
  246. this doesn't feel like a bear market, not yet

    although biotechs are getting crushed, FB, AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, etc are near all time highs
     
  247. I doubt its dehydration. Lots of stress right now in that position, shes getting a bit old to be traveling and speaking this much, but mostly Bernanke left here in a BAD situation and it might be just too much...china looking worse and worse, commodities, oil, inflation..nothing going in her favor for her to do what she needs to do.
     
  248. Yeah that looks like a TIA more than "dehydration." Something definitely wasn't right and it felt like she knew it too. Horrible situation to be in.
     
  249. The fed knows how bad China is that's why they hesitated once again on raising rates last week. Yellen just keeps repeating the same old garbage over and over again.. Today's speech was nothing more than the same old talk she has been spewing for months now...
     
  250. Was she falling asleep in that second video? Seems she nodded off for about 15 seconds..
     
  251. anyone know who will take the chair if she has to take a rest? She is near the best city in the world for care...Mass General, Beth Israel, Brigham and Womens.

    I guess it would be Fischer. If so, he may come right out and hike in Oct without a press conference...just to re-establish control.
     
  252. Rally fading big time in the Nasdaq...almost red after a huge opening....

    Went long more UVXY at 48.50

    :D
     
  253. $51.05 piss
     
  254. IBB -3%

    biotechs were leaders on the way up and now the leaders going down
     
  255. 4.2%!!!!

    march 2000 all over again
     
  256. In LABU on the huge 20% dip....in at $21.35.....

    Sell $28-$30


    Bio sector is getting creamed this week....
     
  257. LABD was $30 on Monday

    Today $47++++

    Wowsers
     

  258. $51.39


    :D
     
  259. IBB -5%
    XBI -7.2%+

    :D
     
  260. IBB -6%
    XBI -8.3%

    TOTAL COLLAPSE
     
  261. It feels like a bear market, but those glam tech stocks have kept me more cautious than I normally would be (from a technical perspective)...I'll add CMG to that list, it just sits perched in the 700's...AMZN has doubled from the Jan lows and still sits near all-time highs...it's just a very bizarre market in many regards.
     
  262. In at $48.49

    Out at $53.04 on UVXY

    Sweetness



    :p:D:p:D
     
  263. Up another $1 since I sold....

    Incredible turnaround
     
  264. I remember the old trick from the last two busts...i.e. pump the Dow, while the other indicies are lagging and then pull the rug out...this was a very strange morning...hard to tell if it would turn into another one of those low volume melt ups that would be reversed next week...the Russell 2000 diverged the entire day, even with S&P cash about 1950...now its ugly.
     
  265. rumours of china devaluation over the weekend
     
  266. where do you get your rumors? ;)
     
  267. from the depths of my devious mind..;)
     
  268. still, a real possibility, ya know...
     
  269. bot some nikkei futures at 17820 to hold over the weekend, earn some risk premium
     
  270. bot some CL at 4560 as a hedge
     
  271. Straight down followed by straight up reversal. What brutal volatility!
     
  272. Bingo... today was a great example of just that and it will continue down the line as long as they can keep it up. If fact I think there is a small trade there. The arbitrage of long the Dow and short NASDAQ and then as you see the Dow breaking down below its running mean...then just a straight short of the Dow as the QQQ finds some short term supports, as you finish shorting the Dow you already are finding some value in some QQQ components
     
  273. Up all next week. You heard it here first. I'd be surprised if it broke 1900 and gave the Bears everything they've been hoping for. I mean Cmon - how obvious and painless would that be?

    This is a trap and harvest market right now, just ride that comet when you can get on.
     
  274. But if Visaria is right and China does cut, then equities ought to poop right through or at least towards current support.
     
  275. "Ought to" are dangerous words in trading. :)
     
  276. In trading everything revolves around ought to, no guarantees, just like in your call for next week amigo. I generally would agree that selling near support is not as rewarding as selling resistance, but as we are still in correction phase, so I firmly believe, it is OK to expect a sell off into month's close.
     
  277. Well this is the great thing about trading - we all get to have our own takes on it and when the week is over debate it over the weekend.
     
  278. If you think about it China went up 52% this year prior to slamming down to just below 0% return for this year, so far, 52% in one year is a clear sign of a top, we ought to have seen the writing on the wall after the .com
     
  279. out of half at 17845
     
  280. sold some TF at 1114.. stop 1139, the liquidity is really crap on everything atm
     
  281. John Boehner's resignation should have pushed the market up but initial reaction was down...just shows how bad sentiment is out there. Thinking of sell off on Monday, back to 1900 on es, but prefer to do the trade on small caps. nikkei long provides some hedge, dollar yen though still in tight range.
     
  282. Futures down nearly 100 points.....I have no clue where they will open since last week we saw on occasion or two the futures down hard only to be green by the opening...maybe the same thing could be said for tomorrow. Will have to wait and see...
     
  283. Man I'd never touch TF in off hours. The liquidity is horrible!
     
  284. Thats the way it was last time round. Futures do what the logic expects over night and then by NY open green green green. I would say 80% of the S&P drop during 2009 happened over night, while no one was looking and some of the very biggest drops happened just before US fed holidays like Martin Luther's BDay.

    If your short this market, trading over night is a necessity regardless of liquidity...besides its not that bad really(talking about ES and NKD and not TF). People keep bemoaning it and never trading it so it gets no love. I think wall street loves this. All the bad sh*t can happen in the middle of the night without fear of large participation...keep trading psychology in the NY day session and just squeeze their balls every morning til they turn blue and switch long...just like buy the dip conditioning. When it does finally puke during the day even most shorts are long and get caught in a bull trap.

    Rickshaw man's wisdom here is infallible in that by morning, as average joe wakes and looks at the market, it indeed "looks" like it is green almost every night. If they are taking it down this early, you know it will be green by 8am tommorrow
     
  285. shorted copper at 2270, stop 2320...on theme of china weakness
     
  286. stopped out of nikkei at 17750 earlier today, small positions, not bothered with the overall loss here.
     
  287. out of a third of cl at 4520, rest has stop at 4480
     
  288. With your trading size, you won't need to consider liquidity in futures. TF is not like trading milk or lumber. It is a rather liquid contract, just less volume compares to giants like ES.
     
  289. looks like more to do with glencore weakness!
     
  290. out of quarter of the copper position at 2238, stops to rest lowered to 2305
     
  291. nb: the oil, nikkei and russell positions were all done in small size...the copper one is 2x bigger in size, but it was a mistake in that it should have been 5x the size
     
  292. yea, chatter about glencore's counterparty risk, creditors starting to shut the flow of open credit facilities...glencore's bonds starting to dive. Sounds like the they might be the first miner/metals trader take the axe. I would think the aussie stock index and aussie dollar will start to prove this as fact or just rumor by tonight but brazil should have already given us ample warning regarding the copper/gold majors.
     
  293. sold these shares today at $58.25....

    :D
     

  294. OUT OF ERY at $32.52

    :D
     

  295. sold this morning at .80. about 10 cents less than I wanted but decided to get out, think this drop might turn around mid day and go positive....
     
  296. apple off nearly 2% after selling a record breaking 13 million iphones????

    HMMMMM

    something isnt right here.....

    with that many iphones sold in one weekend the stock should be up at LEAST 5%%%%
     
  297. added to russell at 1105
     
  298. congrats on that copper trade..your timing was spot on there. It tried to put in a base at 2270 and when it broke after the fourth time I can see why you rode it down. very nice trade
     
  299. Bought more GUSH today at $9.71
     

  300. out of all russell at 1097.5. covered all losses plus from nikkei and crude oil trading.
     
  301. thanks, i actually shorted a couple of contracts overnight at 2275 as well, but didn't post that before.
     
  302. by the way everyone keeps on talking about inflation is under 2% blah blah blah blah

    a parking garage I go to just raised their parking fees from .50 cents to $3.00


    yes I know everyone is going to say its just $2.50 more, but thats a 500 fuc$king %%%% increase in parking fees, 500%%%%%%%%
     
  303. HMMMMMMM

    someone knows something the little guys just don't have a clue about!!!!!!



    Options markets are pricing in a big swing for the S&P 500 this week, according to Goldman Sachs.

    Related Stories
    1. Goldman: The Options Market Says the S&P 500 Is Poised for a Major Move this Week Just don't ask which direction the move will be in.

    Goldman Equity Derivatives Strategist Krag "Buzz" Gregory observes that the S&P 500 straddle -- a trade that profits if the market goes at least a certain magnitude either up or down -- is pricing in a gain or loss of 2.4 percent this week, based on options set to expire on Friday. As such, the S&P 500, which closed at 1,931 on Friday, would have to fall below 1,885 or rise above 1,978 this week for options traders to make a positive return on the straddle trade.
     
  304. Well, last Thursday the JPM analyst released his "everyone will buy the S&P futures" report at exactly the time that squeeze started...Just in time for it to be dumped back to the lows starting Friday...
     
  305. Yesss!
     

  306. I have been sitting here extremely patient waiting for the AUGUST 24th lows to be revisited and I'm actually baffled by how long this is taking, I have added short etfs left and right only to sell them at a profit, but my goal was to hold them until the AUGUST 24th lows came and new lows below dow 15,000 come, however every time I see the market sell off 200-300 thinking the bottom is going to drop out it rallies right back up, so every time I add a short position and get the opportunity to sell it on days like today I take that opportunity to sell and lock in gains, however I know Im going to wake up one morning to see the markets in crisis mode and the markets off 5%+ and only wish the shorts I keep buying and selling for small profits were the ones I held out for massive gains, last huge drop on August 24th I missed by about 2 days, missed out on $4000 worth of gains in only 2 days of trading by selling most of my shorts off that Thursday and Friday before the massive 1000 point drop that monday morning....
     
  307. 5pts to monthly death cross
     
  308. yeah, it's a conundrum, ain't it? we all think we can trade all the little swings, make a net profit, feel good, and then comes along the realisation we just had to sell and hold for the big swing and make multiples of what was made trading the little swings.
     

  309. yea all the little profits I made make me feel good that I can trade these swings but missing out on that one big swing that could net you more profits in 1-2 days that took 6 months to a year to get can really get you down sometimes....im trying to keep my timing, I have short etfs I will NOT sell until the bottom falls out from underneath this market....yes a few I have profits in and am willing to sell at this very moment but I know once I do thats when the big drop will occur and those small profits I could take today could be very massive if the markets repeat another august 24th opening....
     
  310. NASDAQ just keeps losing steam, just continuous downtrend since the open, almost off 100 points.....the drop started on friday and hasn't stopped. I thought tech would get a boost after hearing about record iphone sales but even thats doing nothing to stop it which is telling you something big...
     
  311. All that backfilling is mostly short covering, the market is shaking out the weak hands before it drops hard.
     
  312. Carl Icahn is warning again of bubbles in art and RE, I have been saying there has been a bubble in art, real estate & private car collections for a few years now, the bubble just keeps on getting bigger and bigger, this is common sense yet only a few people see it happening the rest are obvious to it and keep paying record auction prices for art and cars, he said "THE FED MAY HAVE BACKED ITSELF INTO A CORNER", MAY???? hahah they already have, there isnt any MAY HAVE, they HAVE backed themselves into a corner with no way out.......

    He goes on to say "WHERE DO YOU DRAW THE LINE"

    I have an answer for that, ITS TOO LATE TO DRAW THAT LINE, the bubble is too big now, the fed has once again created another crisis that it cannot stop, as I have repeated many times over THE ONLY WAY TO CREATE GROWTH IN OUR NEW WORLD ECONOMIES IS THROUGH THE CREATION OF ASSET BUBBLES!!!!!!!!!


    THE FED IS WAY TO LATE TO RAISE RATES NOW, fu$king FOOLS!



    Danger ahead—that's the warning from Carl Icahn in a video coming Tuesday.

    The activist says low rates caused bubbles in art, real estate and high-yield bonds—with potentially dramatic consequences.

    "It's like giving somebody medicine and this medicine is being given and given and given and we don't know what's going to happen - you don't know how bad it's going to be. We do know when we did it a few years ago it caused a catastrophe, it caused '08. Where do you draw the line?"

    Read MoreWhat happened to bond bubble? It's ready to pop

    In a telephone interview, Icahn said he's "more hedged now than I've been in years."

    "The Fed may have backed itself into a corner. They should have absolutely raised rates six months ago," adding it's difficult now because of global concerns.
     
  313. sold some canadian dollar futures at 7488, hard stop 7530. don't understand why they haven't sold off much in response to weaker commodity prices. maybe because oil is at or approaching support levels in its current range? anyway, small position, will add if crude breaks support.
     

  314. $10 price target reached!!!!

    UP NEARLY 12% today!!!

    Thinking about going back into NUGT!!!!

    These 2 trade like clock work, hoping it stays that way. Thinking JDST has more room to run but will be selling soon and buying back again under $9, only thing is these ETF are going to have a reverse stock split which I wasn't hoping for, I like trading these ETFs in the single digits, looks like in a few days that will no longer be the case!



    UPDATE:

    SOLD @ $10.00 even!!!

    Will wait for reverse split to start trading JDST and NUGT again.
     


  315.  
  316. i have to keep googling these symbols to find out what the hell you are trading! :)

     

  317. haha, all ETFS, no stocks

    Stay away from them though, they are all too risky, if you go ahead and want to trade them go in light.....

    They move quick when their is heavy volatility, meaning at least 5-20% moves in a single day!
     
  318. tempted to cover here and take profits, but 1820 looks like a magnet :D
     


  319. You know how quick these markets move, this morning I was extremely quick to take profits in

    ERY
    CVOL and
    UVXY

    They all skyrocketed again after I sold them. I thought the market was going to quickly turn around and go green, never happened....

    I even had UVXY at around $48 on Friday and was happy to sell it around $53 for a quick day trade last Friday, little did I know that if I had held on just until today I could have gotten another $8 worth of profits out of that stock on the UPSIDE....

    so who knows, the market could easily erase all these losses by tomorrow morning, thats why overtime I think there is a breakdown coming in the market it gets propped up the next day or 2 leaving me to make a decision to sell for a small profit or wait it out for the next big move down where I can make massive profits by waiting patiently.

    The way these markets have been moving with this volatility you can sell today and probably put that same trade back on in less than a week or 2
     
  320. I am going after 1,725 SPX
     

  321. whewwwwww...

    good luck...

    As much as I want to let go of more Short etfs Im waiting out for a break below dow 16,000 to take off some more trades, will see a bounce after that to probably 16300-16500 and Ill add more once the dow is back up...
     

  322. Im hoping for something in that range since I own a lot of TVIX
     
  323. nasdaq has not once made any effort to rally since the bottom fell out on Friday afternoon!!!!

    down over 175 points in these last 2 days...
     
  324. I think that's a perfect discount zone
     
  325. SPX trying to get to 1867 in a hurry, might tag it by the end of the day.
     
  326. I wonder when FED will start yapping away to hold markets.
     

  327. thats the low from August 24th, I think it touches that and drops below that by tomorrow morning, what happens after that is all a guessing game, will everyone jump in and start buying, who knows, what I think is that 1867 will be here tomorrow!
     

  328. Wonder? They will, thats their "JOB"

    Im telling you, if the markets start to collapse there will be an EMERGENCY FED MEETING however it will do nothing to calm markets since the fed has no where to go, hahah
    I can't wait for their first emergency meeting that takes place, its going be just a worthless cause when it happens
     
  329. Well, IMHO discounts are healthy, since 666 SPX rallied what over 200%, so even a 30% correction is good.
     
  330. This is out of their hands now. The fed has tried to sound both dovish and hawkish but the market is not buying any of that, this thing just wants to go down now, nothing can stop it from doing that.
     
  331. Get ready for cnbc's extra market coverage, should be happening tonight, if it doesn't and the markets fall another couple of hundred points tomorrow cnbc is going to have their aftermarket live emergency coverage where they interview all the talking heads about where to put your money, of course most of them are bullish and will say just keep buying the dips...
     


  332. 30% correction? Try a 40-50% correction, s$p could easily be back below 1200 in no time....
     
  333. Or it might get there today, we are at 1880 now so only 13 points to go.
     
  334. Higher inflation can.
     
  335. VIX above 27, wouldn't doubt if it spikes back above 40 or even 50!!!!

    All I know is that with the VIX getting up there near 30 we are going to see once again 150-300 point price swings in both directions, so tomorrow no one should be in awe if the markets open down 200 or more points and rally up 275 points at the close.
     

  336. Im going to rule out today, would be very surprised if it got there....however all the bulls have to do is rally the markets tomorrow and keep the rally into the end of the week to be back in the safe zone once again! Which could possibly happen as well since we all know these markets bounce wildly when entering near a bear market!
     
  337. China was closed today? All markets near support levels. Yep, tomorrow can be bloody.
     
  338. That would only force the fed to hike faster, which would accelerate the EM collapse and commodities slump. I don't think that would help at all.
     
  339. Not sure CNBC will do that anymore since their night time guy in HK got arrested. Last time they did it China said that the aftermarket coverage brought "bad joy luck and no good fortune to people's supreme market"
     
  340. just sold another short etf of mine...

    FAZ sold at $13.40

    Will be buying back all these etf shorts once the dow gets back to 16500+

    hopefully tomorrow there isnt one of those 200 point drops at the open or everything I sold today will be worth at least 5-10% more tomorrow...EEEEK
     
  341. Wasn't China closed today?
     
  342. Yellen is talking again this week as are some others of her crew
     
  343. No. however hong kong, s. korea and taiwan were closed .
     
  344. Ok, I got HSI on my screen, not Shanghai
     
  345. That isn't their job at all; you remain clueless.
     
  346. This is the kind of comedy gold that we can quote in the future. You are saying an SPX of 940-1100 on this leg down.
     
  347. UWTI back under 10; S2007S still holding a massive position.
     
  348. And you were the guy who said they would raise 25 bps in Sept...

    btw, do you ever "sell" or do you just go long and taunt everybody on this site with your frothing neverending bullishness?
     
  349. Quite a few descending triangles on daily charts, unlikely to hold, breakdown soon
     
  350. Watch Japan
     

  351. In due time yes the S$P is headed below 1200

    The bear market is near and the next crisis is just about to unfold....

    6 years of gains could go bye bye in about 6 months. You keep thinking how strong these world economies are because you are about to be proven very wrong.
     

  352. Yes I still own it. Just think if it falls back to the low single digits that would put oil probably below 30 which would then mean no demand for oil because of a massive slowdown in the global markets which would then mean a great recession. ...you keep thinking the world is booming yet commodities are in a bear market.
     
  353. Futures lower again. Dow futures off 50+ points on Asia markets opening. . .

    Tomorrow could be really nasty if someone doesn't prop up the futures tonight.

    S&p very close to August 24th lows!!!!!
     
  354. yea, if aug 24 low is tested overnight it will probably fall without much struggle. If it was tested earlier today they might have fought it back for a while.
     

  355. The Dow is a bit further away from its August 24 low then the s$p is....and the Nasdaq has a lot more to go before it's August 24th low so it should make for an interesting week...I think if the biotech stages a comeback that could lift all markets tomorrow... I went long some LABU on anticipation of that happening this week.
     
  356. Tokyo making new lows below August. Hong Kong Testing key support
     
  357. H shares down 4%
     

  358. I doubt the Dow tests aug 24 for a while. They will probably try to keep it looking better than the rest for as long as they can. yea, I did start to nibble on some biotech. They are starting to look over sold short term. If fact, as we swoon lower those ETFs that you have been mentioning look to be quite good quick trades...your are right there is some amazing upside when those bounce. They are like options without having to pay the large IV right now. Those fly under the radar which is also very good. LABU very interesting right here..verry.

    You also post real-time trades which many traders, that run on and on in talk, are reluctant to do. Posting real time trades separates the men from the boys. Since noddyboy is not here right now I might as well say it. "Did I mention how awesome you are?"

    by the way I wonder where he is. He is missing some good action!
     
  359. out of copper at 2232 and 2341, but still have quarter left of position left

    out of all cad dollar fut at 7451
     
  360. ES trying to bounce here, london talking the miners back up a bit. I guess after yesterday copper was due for a bit of a bounce. I was short AUD/USD cross during Asian session and am now riding a bounce in that
     
  361. shortly copper may tap the underside of that 2270 base that it tried to make yesterday. If it does I would think it would not break through it. haven't got much sleep as I wanted to ride something back up as we headed into the london session. canadian dollar not bouncing like the aussie. I guess cuz they hold oil and market not expecting oil to move much today. last week it bounced nicely off that 7451 point you mentioned
     
  362. out of aussie dollar at 6949. entered long at 6922 few hours ago. currencies starting to look weak. copper looking weak now, no where near that 2270 resistance..did some news just hit about miners ? oh wait, looks like moves are from bond market starting to show fear/risk off just now
     
  363. probably a good time to cover
     
  364. Pullback on S&P looks like another short opport.
     
  365. Absolutely, weekly chart is very bearish, definitely sell rallies. 1725 SPX is very likely IMO.
     
  366. WOW! That weekly chart looks ugly !!!!
     
  367. Weekly charts on most major indices look the same, DAX, Nikkei, HSI all have the same weekly bear flag structure.
     
  368. Well, I have been slowly moving my funds in the 401k back into stocks on down days. Still not all the way back in. I'm not going to try to time this thing much more I don't think though.
     
  369. Do you daytrade your 401k or is this more of a multi-month view? I always find my 401k does the best of all my accounts!
     
  370. they do, but everybody is expecting lower lows, which should lead to a bounce at least in the short term
     
  371. Price oscillates & trends persist.
     
  372. Maybe, but I'm not interested in trading reactions, the primary trend is where the money is made.

    “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.” - Jesse Livermore
     
  373. looks like a bear trap
     
  374. I am cool with both, if I see a great setup I will take the bait
     
  375. Definitely don't day trade it lol it is way too slow and most have fees for exiting and entering the funds more than once in a certain time period, but yes more of a multi-month view. I exited almost all stock holding back in July, and have been buying back in now on dips.
     
  376. It definitely has the same vibe as the market peaks back in 00 and 07/08...namely the squeezes are swift, illiquid and as soon as it starts to retrace, the moves fall apart and roll over...it really can't be traded with the same mindset as the bull phases, it has a completely different personality.
     
  377. [​IMG]
     
  378. 1750 seems reasonable...and I do believe we re-test the 2007 highs back in the 1550 area (and who knows from there)...as a rule I won't short into extreme weakness and so my "inventory" of puts is lower than I would like, but the markets always make it that much harder to get short where we would "like to"...i.e. the FOMC announcement when options spreads went bonkers and we briefly touched the major resistance levels (Russell/IWM) and probably SPX/SPY...I think the Nasdaq will have to play catch up at some point, but so far it seems that all the high beta folks have been hanging around in that area hoping that the Fed says something to rally the hell out of those stocks again..finally saw some beginning capitulation yesterday in the momo names that are really prime for a large sell-off.
     
  379. drip, drip, drip lower...it's interesting that volatility has really come in as the indicies are re-testing last month's lows...
     
  380. Down again after a brief respite, bears are in full control now.
     
  381. The m.o. appears to be an early squeeze at the beginning of the day to create enough liquidity to sell into...it also creates this "rolling chop" downwards that lures in longs throughout the day...if you were to flip the charts upside down, you'd never see this sort of action during the bull phase...those episodes are unrelenting to shorts (i.e. you can never get out in one piece).
     
  382. Yeah its similar to yesterday's chart actually, slow grind downwards after peaking early in the day.
     
  383. SPX is certain to bust thru 1867 tomorrow, if it doesn't happen by the end of the today's session.
     
  384. I though I won the lottery for a moment

    [​IMG]
     
  385. Got long at 1875.
     
  386. BUY.
     
  387. where is rickshaw man?
     
  388. was stopped out on the quarter of copper i has still had on at 2270
     
  389. he only posts here in bull markets
     
  390. short jap yen futures @ 8337..stop at 8400

    purely technical position, dollar/yen is in a tight range, thought i would try and scalp it for 60 ticks.
     
  391. ES bounced pretty hard off the 1904...I am looking for a direction
     
  392. LONG

    LABD @ $55.46, figure why not by some shares since I already own LABU
    UVXY @ $56.75, bought more shares after buying yesterday. Will sell out above $65+
     
  393. LABU way over sold..due for a massive bounce...I am looking hard right now at 16.00
     
  394. you're crazy if you long any biotechs at this stage

    equities that are up 700% in 5 years tend to crash hard when the music stops
     
  395. Well, LABU is a different beast. It tends to trade step for step with the ES
    ES seems to want to run green today..although I am not sure how much higher green
     

  396. PriceChange is buying it just for a trade....thats what I did....

    Im not staying with it for another 8 months or 3 years, Im waiting for biotech sector to put in a nice 10% rally, thats where I will sell all my LABU, I actually bought LABD this morning on the drop and I'm up about $4 a share on it in about 30 mins, not bad, going to sell it above $60 if it gets there today! But still holding LABU until at least $23+
     
  397. LABD rallied to just about $60 and sold off back down to $57
     

  398. If you do buy it keep a watch on it because it moves quickly!!!

    Can easily move more than $1 in less than 15 minutes!
     
  399. yea...LABU yesterday it was a screaming buy at 14.00..even today in at 16.00 its a fairly short trade. But Biotechs..even though they have moved 700% in 5 years, I don't think they will go straight down ..I think they will bounce and then drop another leg down

    today shows signs of the bounce starting to happen
     
  400. Nice to see this thread going strong since i was last here in 2007... Thus may be one of the best ROI threads in the history of the site... particularly off the `08 lows moon shot to our current levels... Heavy, Heavy
     
  401. yea in that same topic, LABD looked over bought from 65 when you see that it was just 30 last Thursday
     

  402. Thats true, can stocks drop straight down, sure they can, but I think the biotechs had a big swing down recently... now Im not saying that the drop can't continue, of course it can but Im playing it for a bounce to the upside....a 10% bounce at least in that sector then Ill go in short.
     
  403. again on that same topic..lok at GUSH..I doubt it drops below 9 in the short term and looks to be on the move up abet not nearly the speed of LABU
     
  404. what the hell just happened to crude /CL..that might cut into this rally at some point this morning
     
  405. I guesss just a fat finger trade on /CL wow
     
  406. lol...almost every day it's the same thing...some ridiculous spike one way or the other...I think that alot of it is end of month positioning (squeezing somebody) in a big way.
     
  407. Longer term charts are still pointing down, hence increased volatility.
     
  408. ahhh..I forgot about end of month stuff.. I think your right...ES never flinched on that /CL move
     

  409. the inventory numbers came out - the equivalent of non farm payrolls for CL lol

    edit: there was almost a 40x difference between the expected and actual numbers
     
  410. yeah, if I remember correctly the massive spike at the end of August put this latest move to shame...I've never traded a CL contract in my life, so I'm not privy to the rolls into different months, etc...but I believe alot of big squeezes happen around those times as well.
     
  411. short cl at 4555, stop 4590, small position
     
  412. ES rally already looking tired

    yea forgot..CL makes waves when they roll into the next month thats for sure
     
  413. Mostly trade Russell/IWM and options and it barely tagged yesterdays highs before stalling..SPX rallied much further...but the Russell divergences can give pretty good signals for SPX.
     
  414. Bought some ERY @ $33.00

    I only went in with a 1/4 position since I DO NOT like to trade this ETF above $30, every time I have bought this ETF in the last couple of months below $30 I have made money. So this should be an interesting trade in the next few days!
     
  415. shorting this bounce like there's no tomorrow
     

  416. Its the HIGH VIX, any vix around the mid 20s is going to cause 100-300 point daily swings!

    Ill take it since I like trading these markets when they are this volatile....I didn't think though such a strong opening this morning....
     
  417. If this rally fades and goes red its going to be quite a nasty nasty close!!!!

    Watching 1820 on the s&p, a drop below that and all hell breaks lose!
     
  418. Visaria, if I may, what's the reason to alteralter position size?
     
  419. yea volatility is pretty hot today! I guess that means very quick in and out of what you are following
     
  420. ADDED SPXS @ $21.90

    Im am just about fully loaded on my short ETFs in just one of my accounts,

    LABD check $55.46
    UVXY check $56.74
    ERY check $33.00
    SPXS check $21.90


    IF the market moves up another 3-5% ill add even more shorts on, but for now I will sit quietly with these new positions
     
  421. sort of a circular argument though...the large swings will cause the high VIX!

    like I mentioned yesterday, we've come down to the 8/24 lows on relatively tame volatility readings (especially in IWM), it even broke the 8/24 lows...and the action down is very, very different than the last several years (i.e. the downside swings had sticky prices), not that stuff where you have 5 minutes to cover before it launches to new swing highs.
     
  422. yea looks toppy on the ES and TF

    almost loks like the "buy on the dippers" are still conditioned to wait patiently for a Fed jawbone or a Fed threat or really any leadership on the bullish side and its just not there. In 2009 they had much much more sway
     

  423. out at 4508
     
  424. LABD nearing $63....going to sell very soon!

    IN at $55.50, wish I went in with more shares, but oh well...
     
  425. 1930 still possible SPX
     
  426. yea thats what I am thinking...if that was all they had and it rolls over that quckly then it will get ugly again to the downside pretty quick
     
  427. it's not cl rollover day
     
  428. Yes, and the Fed ensures that somebody is always speaking...of course, they've always got one of their members contradicting the other, always trying to be coy while maintaining that they want to be as "transparent" as possible...
     
  429. low conviction day trade...
     
  430. does CL seem more volatile today than usual?
     
  431. markets losing steam once again!!!!!

    DOW up only 129 now!!!
     
  432. CL one giant wedge there on the 1 min chart
     
  433. spx.png


    SPX 15M
     

  434. OUT of LABD at $61.00!!!

    Perfect day trade

    IF the markets completely sell off by the end of the day, LABD will easily be trading at 52 week highs well above $65!!!!
     
  435. SPXS looking very good too

    right now im looking for an entry into DWTI
     
  436. wow, that's one helluva chart on that etf...
     

  437. I wouldn't buy DWTI until its under $90 or less!!!

    Maybe even a lot less than that!
     


  438. yes, its a 3X

    I was watching it for a few months, was trading in the low 30's and I thought why not by some, never did though, I feel the biotechs are way to volatile, anyway I ended up buying and selling it today in the upper 50's....all it takes is for the biotechs to put in a solid week of gains and LABD could be sitting easily back under $35 in no time, yes it could easily skyrocket to $100 but I have seen most of these triple etfs get that high and literally lose 80-90% of their value. Thats why if you trade them and have profit its good to take it, otherwise sometimes you miss out, I have cost averaged into some of these 2x and 3x etfs over time...not the thing to do but oh well..
     
  439. by the way if you want to see a triple ETF stock that has sold off probably 90%+ ytd look at GASL, its going to have another reverse split tomorrow, Im actually thinking of shorting this ETF, the last time it had a reverse split it literally went STRAIGHT DOWN!!!! think it went from $25-$30 all the way down to the low single digits!
     
  440. yea, I missed it sorry about that, I see it now though...thanks for the earlier reply, I guess the thread was moving pretty fast at that point
     
  441. ES trying to rally a bit..bounced off that 1887.50. I guess trying to establish support there but the upside loks limited IMHO
     
  442. Inventory report.
     
  443. Yeah, Visaria advised us of that...Regardless, CL has been swinging around like some boiler room penny stock for the last month or so...
     
  444. Yeah that's what makes it such a great intraday trading vehicle :)

    In other news let's hope Janet doesn't Yellenize this rally - I'm long and strong since market close yesterday.
     
  445. yes, good call on the longs...
     
  446. NFP tomorrow?
     
  447. NFPR is always on a Friday, unless its a holiday of course.

    In other news SPX rallied nearly 50 pts off 1872 yesterday, which is just 5 points shy of the crash lows, looks like those lows held but technically it wasn't a retest, I think traders might be jumping on the bandwagon prematurely thinking that the Aug lows held. Maybe that was it, but I doubt it.
     
  448. Got days mixed up :)

    I am holding onto the short.
     
  449. Might simply be that it wasn't time to retest yet - and pretty common with double bottoms/tops where the median section is only partially bought/sold (e.g. M or W type patterns).

    I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing trying to 1980 at some point, plus all the trapped shorts if it does.
     
  450. at the top of a bearish channel, good short here
     
  451. Late day rally across the board after what looked like was going to be a late day sell off, they really turned it around last minute there today...I would take a day like today to sell any positions you put on in the last week...I only bought short etfs on this 200+ point rally today and if goes higher tomorrow and again on Friday Ill just ADD MORE :)

    There is a good chance this rally can get a follow through into tomorrow but Friday with the job report coming out, well thats just a wild guess.
     

  452. OHHHH GIVE ME 1980, heck give me 2000+....thats where it was the day of the fed meeting before everything once again fell apart, I will take 2000+ any day, then I will load right back up on plenty of short ETFs and ride it straight down :)
     
  453. A move to 2030 would be sick. Not only can you make a lot of money on the shorts getting beat down but then you can load up at a nice level to ride it back down.
     

  454. :D:D:D:D:D

    I hope 2030 comes next week!
     
  455. 2030 IMO is unlikely at this stage.
     


  456. Will take any upside we can get to get short once again, I started adding in shorts today around 1900-1915.....once the s$p breaks down below 1820 and all indexes are at August 24th lows heavy heavy selling is going to come, then maybe at that point it will time to lighten up on shorts and start buying on the long side but thats around s$p 1725-1750..

    Even on rally days like today I still stick to shorting and still calling for a bear market, these are all opportunities to sell....
     
  457. Yea 2030 seems very unlikely...rally looked tired as we got into NY session...I think they really struggled to try a close on the high and it looked painted on. Earlier in London they pumped glencore back up just like nothing is wrong. Like standing up weekend Bernie and walking him around the NYSE floor (hey, see here, nothings wrong..everything is fine)

    [​IMG]

    The higher it goes from here the better the short opportunity (1980 I would be all in....2030 I would mortgage the house).
     
  458. es_20150930.png

    buy buy buy buy buy
     
  459. Usual NFP extravaganza, can't see numbers being in line with estimate.
     
  460. long dec ftse 6126, 100 point stop
     
  461. Breakout trades aren't as rewarding as seeking out support/resistance trades in index futures IMHO.
     

  462. out at 6090, didn't like the trade
     

  463. yeah, it was a breakout trade, but it didn't carry....4hr chart shows the ftse in more of a range...shoulda reversed the thing!, it just fell apart to 6074
     
  464. more london chatter on glencore as well...bringing glencore and FTSE down pretty quickly
     
  465. Bought back into LABD around $56.80 this morning...

    Job numbers were down right nasty ...wonder what Fridays job numbers bring???
     

  466. That owner went from billionaire to hundred millionaire

    That's going to happen all over that industry especially to all those who have their wealth in oil and energy production....
     
  467. One thing to consider when debating whether interest rates would rise or not is the fact that borrowing costs would go up by 50% even if there is a marginal rate increase, how is that going to be serviced? We talk about it being a possibly tiny lift, but in essence in percentage terms it would be huge.
     
  468. yea, sitting here for so long at zero interest is just getting dangerous and now that there is a downturn globally, raising is also going to be dangerous...its true these first few hikes raise debt service greatly in percentages...50% then 100%. Just when we are at the height of debt in tech/biotech/natural resource/energy plays and they don't want or need higher debt service. They certainly can't issue equity to lower debt..in fact they have been buying back shares (just the opposite of debt relief). The only real relief is debt restructuring or more junk issue. Kinda of a death spiral

    If you think about, financials are in a precarious situation right now
     

  469. And that's one reason why the fed can never move rates....

    Oh an I forgot to add India cut their rates 2 days ago from 7.25% to 6.75% 2 days ago....

    So as the world continues to cut rates the fed is thinking about raising rates ....yea okay...the fed can't do a damn thing. They are stuck....
     
  470. Even if the fed raises rates just a small tiny tiny tiny threat of a slow down and those rates are going straight back to zero...once the recession comes and a global slowdown shows up NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES will be the norm on wallstreet.
     
  471. S2007S what was that price point you mentioned regarding an entry into DWTI

    CL getting crazy
     
  472. sold some more jap yen futures at 8356, averaging in a little
     
  473. chatter in the oil journals is that the reason russia moved into syria with military is to drive up oil and that the oil traders are running with that story today bullishly..although it is a pretty weak excuse, I guess they are kinda desperate for higher prices. They are also hoping higher CL will cause the ES rally to continue
     

  474. It was below $95, even lower than that but I still bought in this morning at $95.50....sell at $110+....bought very small amount of shares.
     
  475. Another rumour is that they are there as Assad asked them to help fight ISIS and US for some reason isn't keen on it, Russia was asked and US apparently wasn't.
     
  476. big numbers out at at the top of the hour...
     

  477. Thats the reason, we know russia relies heavily on Oil and natural gas export revenues. Found out that in 2013 oil and natural gas sales accounted for 68% of Russias TOTAL EXPORT revenues....with oil sinking to lows maybe that could be news that would push oil up to benefit them....
     
  478. apple selling off again and that has to have the markets very worried since they sold a record amount of iphones in one weekend.....
     

  479. LABD doing it yet again ;)

    wish I bought in my other account this morning as well, but was focusing on buying DWTI instead....missed out on selling my GUSH above $11 after buying below $10 last week!!!! So still holding onto to GUSH!!!
     
  480. Looks like time to sell again. High for October is reached!
     

  481. worse than expected...possibility of US recession looming
     
  482. some definite "trap and harvest" going on this a.m. Razor sharp moves
     
  483. Come on fed raise rates already, oh Yesssssss I forgot the economy is STILL TO WORTHLESS AND WEAK for you to do so even after all that QE and trillions of dollars you pumped into the system!!!!!!


    1.
    The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in September while remaining at its lowest level since May 2013, according to an industry report released on Thursday.

    The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 50.2 from 51.1 the month before. The reading was shy of the expected 50.6, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

    2.
    U.S.-headquartered companies put 58,877 jobs on the chopping block last month, up 43 percent from just more than 41,000 in August and the third highest monthly total this year, Challenger's global outplacement firm reported.
     

  484. Just broke $101
     
  485. Sharp moves but the market isn't going anywhere. Very strange considering how bad the ISM numbers were and European stocks are tanking.
     
  486. There won't be any definitive buying going on until correction runs it's course :)
     
  487. Its not selling off either...
    What an insanely frustrating market.
     
  488. That's why I don't like to put a time stamp on trades, if there are reasons to remain in a trade why close out? Because it doesn't look/feel right? Staying short.
     


  489. just broke $105!!!!

    "DWTI"
     
  490. Monthly SPX 7 & 14 Death Cross now valid.

    monthly.png
     
  491. Yeah, "bear" action is much different in the indicies than the bull market action...It also gets dicey at these levels (psychologically) since it's been 7 years or so since we had sustained downside movement...each time it rallies 20-30 sp points, there's alot of panic covering, etc.
     
  492. nice trade..nice
     

  493. did you get in?

    I know you wanted in yesterday around $107?
     

  494. From cnbc "PRO" didn't get the whole article since I don't want to waste my money signing up for lame cnbc article but this was the first of the beginning of that article they provide for free......



    After stocks go through a correction, pundits dust off old Wall Street market indicators to try to game a bottom. Things like "Dow Theory" and "death cross."

    Well here's one more for you.

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch's "Sell Side Indicator" predicts the S&P 500 will rally 18 percent over the next 12 months, according a report sent to clients Thursday.
     
  495. Not yesterday, I listened to you, you said wait for 90s so I did. nice call. But this morning yes I bought at 96 and just sold at 106.50. Very interesting trade there once you follow the support and resistance. I think anytime it lowers into the mid 90s its a buy. and then above 105-110..its a sell. I can see why you were waiting for 110

    looking now at LABD
     
  496. Convulsions.
     

  497. awesome, glad I could help you make some $$$$$$$

    Im holding until tomorrow, it just broke to the upside once again, trading around $107, will be selling it all tomorrow hopefully above my $110+ price target..


    It moves quick, right now the setup seems to buy in the mid 90s and sell in the $105-$115 range however that range isnt going to last forever, if oil breaks out which it could back to $50 the new buy on DWTI will probably be below $65. So just keep in mind this range isnt going to last.....
     

  498. Im in LABD as of this morning well before the market opened, its tough to want to get in, I would hold off, Im in around $56 and change, selling at $63+ buy hold off on buying and quick rally in the markets will send it straight down to under $50, don't go in...wait!
     
  499. 1900 looks like its going to break again!!!!!!
     
  500. Good!
     
  501. Russell leading the downside again...SPX actually had a legit bounce
     

  502. DWTI @ $110++


    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:p:p:p:p:p:p:p
     
  503. yea getting ugly..nobody mentioning romik's chart..death cross confirmed SPX 7 & 14. market followed that down fairly quickly.
     

  504. yea I should have held..congrats
     

  505. OUT @ $61.25

    I still own LABU, Cost Average around $20 or so but if you consider the profits I made in LABD the last few days I just brought my Cost average down in LABU by a couple of dollars....not bad!!!
     

  506. holding it into tomorrow morning ahead of the job numbers, I think a weak job numbers could send oil lower tomorrow, hopefully it stays above $105 into the close!!!
     
  507. well things getting a bit more quiet. I am going to print out romik's chart and do some reading. I could use some review on these patterns.
     

  508. Congrats! Is this security v liquid? Could i buy say, $30k of it, no problem?
     
  509. yea, I bought $25,000 this morning no problem at all filled at the bid but the spread is very tight...sold it in 1 block and it filled in seconds without a flinch...I take it this is only because of the large volatility in the mrkt right now though.
     
  510. New to this thread, but it seems like the best place to put this question. Is there a weird divergence between SPX and the VIX right now? SPX down 0.72% right now and the VIX is down 1.67%.
     
  511. I sure do hope this ends up in another bear flag and we proceed through current reaction lows.
     
  512. Took 22 ES points (1890->1912) from last night's Eurasian runup (got stopped out somewhere in pre-market).

    Back in again long at 1905 in the last hour of cash, ES presently 1917.

    If we pass 1955, we're going to 1980.
     
  513. While McCain's in the latter camp, there could be further pain ahead as more groups test their August lows. "We don't like to see the deterioration in the market, but you have to realise it's a natural part of the process," he said.
     
  514. as soon as IBB gets to 320, i'm taking out a big short position
     


  515. I sold all LABD today...daytraded it twice this week...but I'm done for now...going to wait until it drops into the 30's before I get back in...staying long LABU...sell price $23-$25. Then time to short biotech once again.
     
  516. Also, much of the reason why the NDX/QQQ has been so resilient...Remember how a few of the tech heavyweights gapped up into mega-parabola's in July (GOOGL, AMZN) which masked the carnage in all of the lesser weighted companies...It's like a magic trick.
     

  517. Yea, you have been talking about TF and RUT being leading indicators and they are. But then arbitrage back toward SPX as the spread widens. Seems like commodities plays, energy and biotech are truer indicators. Biotech indices have their heavy weights too but commodities not so much since thier heavy weights are leading down (debt very toxic). Energy strictly a day trade because of all the bogus trading news (but true energy fundamentals very bearish). S2007S's ETFs such as LABD/LABU, DWTI/UWTI, ERY/ERX, JDST/JNUG all strip out a lot of the heavyweight effect in these plays short term.

    The real breaking point with biotech heavyweights will be when the markets realize their debt is begining to become fairly toxic (see: romik's post about percentage increases in debt service in early stage Fed hiking). Hiking during a global downturn places corp debt in a precarious position.

    Once toxic debt becomes an issue, the financials will roll over. They have heavyweights also which people will pile into to no end. They have also been cleaned-up a lot since 2009. Hence FAZ/FAS.

    Also, as more and more people are short here, watch for China's bogus information machine to appear. They will start reporting major improvements in commodities and energy demand soon..major starts in manufacturing..probably will ease rates too. Don't know how long that will stick but it will create squeezes. Todays bogus run of crude at the open is a good example.
     
  518. IMO fundamentals rarely apply to the front month crude contract. Just trade that think like the casino it is (technical analysis/sentiment/trapped players etc). The further timeframe you go out and/or the curve relationships is where fundamentals probaby hold more sway.
     
  519. btw, i960, did you come up with the expression "trap and harvest"...I've been using it alot lately, so I should give credit where it's due.:)
     
  520. Job numbers tomorrow are for 200,000....

    Last month they missed ...my guess is that they miss again....I'm thinking somewhere in the 145,000-160,000 range.
     
  521. lol...I am not a bear, I trade both ways.
    lol...I trade both longer term and short term.
    lol... if you are just a bull (you are :) )...sold to you
     
  522. ? I'm absolutely not a bull whatsoever. I think this market is a total joke.
     
  523. I don't think so - but I'll admit, I've used "glam stocks" ever since you started saying it. :)
     
  524. the bullish trendline in ES from 1861 to 1930 was broken today at lunch; now it's acting as resistance

    more downside ahead
     
  525. I like it when you guys talk dirty :)
     
  526. Bet it breaks tonight or atleast tests it with significance. There's some buying going on.
     
  527. bot some brent crude at 4803, stop 4700. smallest position. no real reason for the trade, just felt like it!, so don't copy it!
     
  528. scalped a long 4771, out at 4784
     
  529. bot back some at 8326, still have a little position..
     
  530. absolutely destroyed

    and it keeps falling!! lmao
     


  531. HAHAHA

    TOLD you,.,,,,complete miss...COMPLETE MISS

    142,000


    HUGE misses


    and revisions lower in august and july by 59,000 JOBS


    come on fed raise the fuc$king RATES

    HAHA
     


  532. FUTURES S$p down 16


    DOW down 113


    NASDAQ off 31 points

    OUCH



    AWWWWW ...fed needs more QE hahaha
     
  533. DWTI had a nice little bump up to near $111, Im out at the open in that one!!!

    Waited for these job numbers to miss to bring oil down and DWTI UP!!
     

  534. :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
     
  535. Im sure all those holiday hirings will pick the jobs number back above 200,000 however about 85% of the hirings for the Christmas season are all minimum wage paying jobs.....
     
  536. Bulls wrecked.
     
  537. Closed all the shorts.
     
  538. but the party is just getting started!
     
  539. Yes it is!
     
  540. Damn shame...just a damn shame
     
  541. romik..do you see the bond market right now?
     
  542. classic dont want to come to OUR party
     
  543. I think I can just about, had one drink too many last night.
     
  544. closed at small loss 8375, yen rocketed after reports
     
  545. Definitely Joining!! waiting for a pullback to jump in again.
     
  546. probably forget about any interest rise this year...not really sure how the cash market is gonna respond. on one hand no rate rise good for stocks, otoh, no rate rise means the economy is weak....
     
  547. Bond market repricing that dynamic you were talking about. Debt service and rate hikes finally seen for what it is right now. Look for financials to roll over this morning

    People will also begin to bail on the average weightier stocks in SPX and particularly NQ & QQQ

    Dollar going to drop hard through out the day

    Could be another full leg down on the ES
     
  548. shorted es at 1895, st 1930, v small position, see how things go, will add if market starts falling
     
  549. Short again. This baby is goin down
     
  550. add to short es at 1892, still small position
     
  551. bull flag on TLT looks all but confirmed at this point
     
  552. add at 1890
     

  553. DOW futures now off more than 200...

    Im waiting for the open to sell some of my short positions off....

    DWTI being one of them
     
  554. 43pt dump from pre NFPR peak. Woohoo!
     
  555. Not really convinced of the short case at all tbh, this really could be seen as good news for equities...
     
  556. HAHAHAHAHAHAH HAHAHAH

    now they are predicting the next rate to happen in MARCH of 2016.....fu$king FOOLS!!!!!!!
    As I said this economy is worthless and the fed has lost every OUNCE OF CREDIBILITY....I will keep saying the fed has no clue where to go, they are stuck, the next crisis and 2008-2009 will look like nothing even happened...they must be scratching their heads now wondering if that so called rate hike in December is actually going to come.....wait they are thinking something

    NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES AND MORE QE!!!!

    that will save the markets once again!!!

    HAHAHAH





    Fed funds futures plunged after the weak September jobs report, with the market now pricing the first better-than-average chance of a rate hike in March 2016.

    According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing a 5 percent chance of a rate hike this month, versus 14 percent previously; a 30 percent chance in December versus 44 percent beforehand; 42 percent in January versus a prior 52 percent; and 51 percent next March.

    The U.S. economy created 142,000 jobs in September, a number that badly missed expectations.

    Read MoreWhat's the real unemployment rate?

    While the FedWatch tool pointed to a March rate hike, RBS said swaps data suggested the market was pricing the first rate hike into June of next year.
     
  557. -240

    OUCH!!!!!

    no one saw this one coming


    wonder if tom lee is buying equities today


    that bull must love these job numbers this morning


    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
     
  558. Not until correction runs it's course. Once markets bottoms it will be a lot more evident, so far bounces don't have legs, just being sold into, which is a classic strategy within a down leg.
     
  559. yea.. Fed, up until an hour ago, was still acting as though we were in an economic recovery with good nominal growth. The main change is that nominal growth is in real doubt and global recession is a real notion going forward...CAT just slated 30,000 layoff of jobs. CAT been the harbinger for a while now..
     
  560. If we were in a recovery, then why companies keep laying off folks? Makes perfect sense!
     
  561. DWTI @ $115

    $$$$$
     
  562. out of some es at 1887

    short dec nikkei at 17465, hard stop at 18000...still have exposure to short side on equities and with the yen breaking out of the top of the range, better bet than shorting es imho
     
  563. so JPM dropping viciously .., yea financials telling the story
     
  564. wish I held overnight
     
  565. OUT OF DWTI AT $115....

    WHEW

    BOUGHT MORE LABU AROUND $15.50

    BRINGING MY COST AVERAGE DOWN EVEN MORE!!
     
  566. Rickshaw gone forever?
     
  567. bot some more brent at 4727, stop 4700
     
  568. This thing ought to be trading much lower than aug lows now, a large chunk of the market is already lower than those levels, market breadth is just terrible.
     

  569. I hope not
     


  570. trust me you will be able to buy this a lot lower in due time.....even it jumps to $150 or $200 it will drop right back down
     


  571. Im still wondering how its possible the markets haven't broken that low yet....the dow should be under 15,000 by now!!!
     
  572. Because you keep buying?
     
  573. My guess is the big boys sold portfolio protection during the Aug crash, so they will try to keep this propped up until those puts expire worthless.
     
  574. Whilst investment firms do realise that corrections are part of the game, they don't like them, as they mostly invest/trade long side of equities. So far this is a corrective cycle with an average correction being around 20% they still mostly observe the market from the buy side. Only when & if S&P sheds 20% & locks below it, that's when directional volatility will increase dramatically.
     
  575. Wal-Mart to cut 450 jobs "at headquarters"

     
  576. Equal weight indicies show the real picture...
     

  577. yea its levitation because many individual components are crashing right now.. financials looking sickly..JPM almost down 5%
     

  578. this is why other indices should be considered when shorting...the SP500 has stuffed full of mega caps that funds will rotate into 'cause they are safe lol
     
  579. so glad I added in shorts when the dow was up 200+ points the other day.....

    Im wanting to sell but I don't know what Monday is going to bring, we could have another nasty opening if we close at the lows of the day today!
     
  580. That's a standard strategy, if you are drowning you grab the biggest log to hold on to.
     
  581. Rememeber ZERO WAGE growth, where is the purchasing power going to come from, 70% of the US GDP is made up of consumer spending!!!!!
     
  582. And a big part of the problem is that they can look at the last 30+ years and rationalize how every sell-off was an "opportunity"...the Japanese got a raw deal with all of their ZIRP and monetary madness...they still can't get the Nikkei close to those 1989/90 highs...and there's good odds the thing drops right back down to where it was 2-3 years ago.
     
  583. TF and RUT acting a little better
     
  584. Very good interview

     
  585. On top of them being BIG on exported manufacturing.

     
  586. Exactly...I like Russell 2000's sidekick, the IWN (Small Cap "Value"), led the way down.
     
  587. yes sold(to close) a few puts about 15 minutes ago...I can't say that I'm pleased with how I've traded this entire downturn (Fed day was the perfect short location, but spreads were terrible) and it's been hard to get super aggressive shorting (at least for me).
     
  588. Monday will be very interesting. Asia not really buying our growth lies... miners may drop hard, London probably follow through with an Asian drop (another Glencore story)

    If they try to bounce it here at any point leading to close I am going to hold decent shorts over the weekend

    LABU up 10% since open
     

  589. WHEW

    LABU now above $16.15


    COST average now $17.65 on LABU!!!!

    Price target $23-$25!!
     
  590. This has that feel of the "buy em ugly bid" coming in...I don't know what thread it was on, but it was an astute observation about the 1867 level in spx...Fed wants the "market" to hold those levels and is counting on it being a simple re-test (or else we'll get some more jawboning), so even though we've got all these data points, along with an economy too weak to raise rates, the "market" has to churn sideways to higher or else Janet will really be in way over her head trying to manage market expectations and dance around the perpetual ZIRP...
     
  591. Sounds like the equivalent of legging into a straddle...cost average the 3x bull and bear etf's
     

  592. No I meant TF and RUT acting better in regards to being better real indicators of market movement
     

  593. true...there is some risk...of course!

    Im hoping by the end of next week its sitting comfortably above $20+


    ITs at $16.61 and its positive in this -200+ dow market today which is quite surprising, maybe biotech will help the markets jump into the close!
     
  594. LABU soaring must be news out regarding a heavy weighted biotech component

    I think the mega caps in the SPX could do the same..throw out bollocks news releases in the middle of move down
     
  595. Yeah, they definitely don't have the same issues as DOW, SPX and NDX with regard to a few glam stocks skewing the prices higher...I'm holding out (trying to) for an eventual test of about 850 in RUT by sometime next year, but will close more puts and/or hedge at a test of the 2014 lows...104.00 level IWM or 1040 RUT.
     
  596. the ultimate "risk on/off" sector
     


  597. yea its just going and going,

    I own LABU in 3 different trading accounts


    The last position I bought this morning in my other trading account at $15.45 Im going to sell once it gets to $17.50+
     
  598. out of all es at 93
     
  599. LA
    yea its going to bounce for a bit here offer an better short entry
     
  600. they had to know jobs were going to sheit with all this fraking and shale fall off

    Now Saudi are very mad that US not countering Russia in Syria and they just said they are pumping oil full on

    I could see shorting CL longer term here
     
  601. i'll short more nikkei if it falls,
     
  602. YESSS


    IN @ $15.47 on LABU
    OUT @ $17.75 on LABU

    SWEET GAINS!!!

    A 14.73% GAIN in 1 hr and 14 minutes!!!!
     
  603. in case some aren't believing, there is the LABU trade in its FULL GLORY!!!!!

    :D:p:D:p


    Screen Shot 2015-10-02 at 10.55.49 AM.png
     
  604. buy the dip is back? that was fast
     
  605. im a little ticked off, for fun about a week ago I opened a fake account with $30,000.... in about 1 week I took the account to $33,276, 10%+ increase....I traded on absolutely zero fear because it was fake money and these were the trades....only 1 loss of $62.00 bucks, all the rest were winners



    Activity
    *All times are in US EST *

    Side Symbol Transaction Date/Time Quantity Price Gross Profit
    Sell TVIX 10/2/2015 10:58:51 AM 559 12.11000000 89.4400
    Sell UGAZ 10/2/2015 10:58:37 AM 965 5.68000000 57.9000
    Sell LABU 10/2/2015 10:58:25 AM 583 17.79000000 757.9000
    Buy UGAZ 10/1/2015 2:12:05 PM 965 5.72000000 0.0000
    Buy TVIX 10/1/2015 2:11:34 PM 559 12.20000000 0.0000
    Buy LABU 10/1/2015 12:27:57 PM 583 15.25000000 0.0000
    Sell TVIX 10/1/2015 12:27:08 PM 500 12.77000000 295.0000
    Sell ERY 10/1/2015 12:26:49 PM 30 33.06000000 7.2000
    Sell LABD 10/1/2015 12:26:30 PM 10 61.17000000 39.8000
    Sell FAZ 9/30/2015 12:25:44 PM 750 13.19000000 112.5000
    Sell UVXY 9/30/2015 12:25:15 PM 150 58.72000000 138.0000
    Sell ERX 9/30/2015 11:08:11 AM 250 25.24000000 322.5000
    Buy ERY 9/30/2015 10:54:31 AM 30 32.98000000 0.0000
    Buy FAZ 9/30/2015 10:03:23 AM 750 13.04000000 0.0000
    Buy UVXY 9/30/2015 10:02:37 AM 150 57.80000000 0.0000
    Buy LABD 9/30/2015 9:39:09 AM 10 56.74000000 0.0000
    Buy TVIX 9/29/2015 12:25:11 PM 500 13.62000000 0.0000
    Buy ERX 9/29/2015 12:24:29 PM 250 23.87000000 0.0000
    Sell UVXY 9/29/2015 11:48:14 AM 250 60.62000000 590.0000
    Buy UVXY 9/29/2015 10:28:44 AM 250 58.26000000 0.0000
    Sell GASL 9/29/2015 10:27:39 AM 1000 3.31000000 100.0000
    Sell ERY 9/29/2015 10:27:25 AM 50 33.96000000 -62.0000
    Sell ERX 9/29/2015 10:27:05 AM 75 24.86000000 57.7500
    Sell DGAZ 9/29/2015 10:26:48 AM 500 7.12000000 190.0000
    Sell NUGT 9/29/2015 10:26:25 AM 2500 2.77000000 250.0000
    Sell LABU 9/29/2015 10:25:53 AM 250 17.83000000 277.5000
    Sell SVXY 9/29/2015 10:25:41 AM 125 46.52000000 120.0000
    Sell GUSH 9/29/2015 10:24:47 AM 375 9.36000000 150.0000
    Buy DGAZ 9/28/2015 12:46:44 PM 500 6.65000000 0.0000
    Buy NUGT 9/28/2015 12:42:03 PM 2500 2.76000000 0.0000
    Buy GASL 9/28/2015 12:41:38 PM 1000 3.40000000 0.0000
    Buy GUSH 9/28/2015 12:40:04 PM 375 9.48000000 0.0000
    Buy ERX 9/28/2015 12:39:46 PM 75 24.80000000 0.0000
    Buy SVXY 9/28/2015 12:39:19 PM 125 45.29000000 0.0000
    Buy LABU 9/28/2015 12:38:10 PM 250 17.93000000 0.0000
    Buy ERY 9/17/2015 2:04:52 PM 50 27.98000000 0.0000
     

  606. yea super fast, I didn't think such a turn around would have happened today, I thought the dow was going to close well below 16,000

    I didn't even get to sell my UVXY, ERY and SPXS I took hold of just days ago!!
     
  607. hit 50% retrace, trend broken, coming back down
     
  608. very weird trading..biotechs soaring for no reason, some tech soaring some tech dropping ...case to be made on CL either way, financials looking sickly, bonds telegraphing bad things to come and long funds have figured out the algo for propping SPX with the right combo of mega caps in the short term
     

  609. biotechs caught me off surprise, I saw them strong at the open and bouncing off their lows so I took the trade in LABU, some tech is soaring because of MU earnings last nights...as for financials yea, they are doing bad, if they rally anytime soon Im going to go short once again the financials.
     
  610. FAS ?

    Some of these they need to splits on. DWTI needs a forward split. Gush needs a reverse split.
     


  611. FAZ!

    if you are bearish financials
     
  612. ok got it

    by the way LABU starting to look toppy (triple top action)
     


  613. yea since I have sold it it hasn't done much, still trading around $17.50, had a nice quick run but it looks tired...tempted to jump into LABD but will wait for something under $45 now....I think I'm done for the day....sold my DWTI and day traded LABU....thats pretty good...

    DWTI now at $116.
     
  614. nice trades
     
  615. wow unbelievable turn around
     
  616. long es 1907.75, 10 point stop

    out of half of nikkei at 680
     
  617. next stop 1980
     
  618. The real question is how far will it go...I went long the Jan/Feb vix spread at .14, but put a very close limit order in to go ahead and lock in profits if it makes a little move. Almost there
     
  619. Averaged one short (1909) Net, and closed one long.
     
  620. SPX.png

    When s the party starting ??
    Another close above 1935 and we fly to 2000 :((
     
  621. Look at that volatility, SPX 15M: SPX15M.png from 1937 to 1893 and back to 1926
     
  622. out of es at 1917
     
  623. Sold! @.20
     
  624. Does this rally gain momentum and close up over 100 points or do we sell off once again into the close???
     
  625. long 18.5, stop 10 points
     
  626. whew, this is a tricky market today....

    :confused::confused::confused::confused:

    had the opportunity to sell numerous shorts at a profit this morning but didn't......

    UVXY
    SQQQ
    ERY
    SPXS

    looks like Ill be holding out for DOW -16,000 to unload them now!!!
     
  627. LABU still around the same price I sold it even though now the dow is up over 100+ points since I did, I thought momentum would have carried that to at least $19 a share by now!
     

  628. GUSH is GUSHING AGAIN!!!!!! UP over 8%

    Looking to unload it very soon :)
     
  629. oil prices big rally...will push up energy components of sp500
     

  630. that and biotech is what led to this turnaround today!
     
  631. EEK all my gains in SQQQ have evaporated since earlier this week, I was up nearly $3 a share on it
    Was as high as $28+ now back to DOWN!!!
    :eek:
     
  632. Entering a good area to short the rally
     
  633. out 26
     
  634. not shorting anything until 1980-2000 level
     
  635. Out 1/2 position in GUSH @ $11.10

    Will be back in under $10 again


    Just put on a trade in ERY at $30.50

    selling at $31.00

    for quick day trade


    UPDATE

    OUT @ $30.81
     


  636. FLY to 2000????

    Hmmm, are you sure....

    September 17th was the last time I thought the s$p was going to run up to 2100+ after putting in that rally above 2000 and it never happened...
     

  637. i m never sure, but nice to have an opinion
     
  638. Make it or break it.Stuck between 1936 and 1926.
     
  639. SPX 5M.png

    SPX 5M
     
  640. Added a tiny tiny position in DRIP at $77.85
     
  641. short the TF at 1097 stop 1999
     
  642. a well placed stop!
     
  643. was out of nikkei at 805

    es at highs
     
  644. how are you supposed to short when the fed won't let the markets normalize?
     
  645. SPX 4H. Here we go again. Direction "North" SPX 4H.png
     
  646. adding in shorts slowly yet again, want to wait until monday but slowly adding in small tiny positions



    BACK in LABD at $50....tiny tiny position
    In DRIP around $77.85 tiny tiny position

    Sold 1/2 GUSH a bit early at $11.10 OH well, you can't be perfect and LABU is riding higher from where I sold it as well, Monday should make for a very interesting opening
     
  647. Im stuck on what to do with one of my portfolios, as short as I am on this market todays huge up day is actually helping out extremely well for me, I'm up 1.78%, now I need to add some heavy shorts into that portfolio but need to wait until monday comes, I have a feeling this rally might follow through with another gap up on Monday morning!
     
  648. LABU up near $19.00 WOW,
    if Im right it will near my sell price of $23-$25 sometime in the next week or 2...
     
  649. long russell 1108.6
     


  650. Keep a tight stop.....

    Im the opposite of how you trade, I would never never go long after a day like today, yes there might be more upside but I like to trade the opposite way, for instance Im not even thinking about going long here, all my trades today were getting rid of shorts while the market was tanking and now adding more shorts while the market is in rally mode hence my new positions in DRIP and LABD the last hour or so.....You should have gone long the russel this morning when everything looked like it was over thats when I went long LABU and sold for a 14% gain in less than 2 hours....it worked out very well, I also sold DWTI around the open and TZA around $53 as the markets started to move higher...