Home > General Topics > Trading > Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

  1. I doubt it, but that's just my 1tick :)
     
  2. free money right at the open, gap up 80 points, in a few mins it will be trading up 100+ and will stay flat for the remainder of the day, rinse and repeat rinse and repeat all week long....


    apple trading up near historical highs only hours before earnings...just buy the stock its a guarantee winner no matter what, everyone is calling for a $150+ so its free money for you if you can just be a little patient....should be north of $138 tonight after earnings, $150 by may, $175 by summer and over $200 by end of 2015 when they release the new fresh updated every has to have iphone 7....
     
  3. who says you can't time the market
     
  4. This is so easy making free money, with ZERO risk...$$$$$$$$
     
  5. from cnbc, the "RALLY IS JUST GETTING STARTED"
    JUST getting started?????
    Where has todd gordon been for the last 6 years?? Is he oblivious to the 200%+ rally in stocks and not one 10% correction in years???? This market needs one serious wake up call....




    After Nasdaq and S&P 500 stocks rallied to new highs, one trader says the rally is just getting started.

    "I think there's some real room to run here," said technical analyst Todd Gordon. "We're right in the middle of earnings season and the market is breaking out of a consolidation phase."


    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102622202
     
  6. Up over 120% in one year, up nearly 40% YTD
    UP 3% last night....



    BUBBLE BUBBLE BUBBLE!!!!



    SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX
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    [​IMG] +133.71 / +3.04%
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    Quote Details
    Previous close 4,393.69
    Open 4,441.93
    Day high 4,529.74
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    Today's volume 671,053,771
    Average daily volume (3 months) 42,594,294,915
    Average P/E --
    1 year change +122.31%
     
  7. The party is about to get started but not that kind of party as he means,they don't even know what they are talking about. But the way, you call him a trader? Is he really a trader?:)
     
  8. BUBBLE makes people crazy, dream, deeply absorbed in the market......
    some people start to dream to be a millionaire, some just watch the screen right from the opening of the market to the end, they are the kind of people who are most likely to lose money in my eyes... I really worry about them...
     
  9. Apple earnings are after the close today and again it seems as usual Apple low-balls their forecasts on purpose to make it look like they achieved mind blowing numbers when they are released every single time, Back in January they forecasted sales $52-$55 Billion....
    Tonight look for $2.16 EPS on $56 Billion in revenue, 2 numbers apple will have no problem breaking, Im sure they will have EPS north of $2.50 and Revenue of about $60 billion....
    The big number of the night is iphone sales, there is no way they sold as many this quarter as they did this quarter and thats why they are looking for 58 million iPhones sold, that number will be hard to predict but as usual Im sure apple sold north of 60 million iPhones....if this number were to miss it would be a shock to the stock for a couple of days.....if they sell north of 60 million phones do over $2.50 on $60 billion in revenue expect the stock to close north of $138 tonight, the only thing I question right now Xiaomi, the 3rd largest smartphone distributer that has only been around since 2010, they are selling millions and millions of phones, this could take away a little of apples market share in china, they set a record of selling just over 2 million phones in 1 day online, thats about $300 million worth of phones, this is a big.......they haven't started selling their phones in the US but once they do this could become a game changer and open up serious competition to the iphone, if I could buy a smartphone for nearly 1/2 the price of the iphone, galaxy, m9, LG, nexus, etc I would....I don't know why cell phones sell at laptop prices, most a smartphone should cost is about $300...

    Analysts estimate that Apple generated earnings per share of $2.16 on revenue of $56.1 billion in the March quarter, according to Thomson Reuters. In the year-ago period, Apple reported earnings of $1.66 a share, adjusting for a subsequent stock split, on revenue of $45.6 billion.

    The Cupertino company is expected to report selling roughly 58 million iPhones for the quarter, according to analysts surveyed by Fortune.

    About 69 percent of Apple's $74.6 billion in sales last quarter came from the iPhone. That smartphone typically has accounted for half of Apple's sales in previous quarters.

    In January, Apple, which tends to low-ball its forecast, projected sales of $52 billion to $55 million, which was largely in line with Wall Street's estimates at the time.

    Wall Street expects Apple to forecast revenue of $47.06 billion for the fiscal third quarter, which ends in June.
     
  10. nasdaq red, really surprised by that since it had a strong opening, bio techs getting SLAMMED!!!!
     
  11. 5132 Naz year 2000
     


  12. that should happen this week on earnings from apple.....

    year end nasdaq to 6000+....the nasdaq will start trading like it did in 1999 and the shanghai index of today....
    no pullbacks either...
     
  13. by the massive dip, this is the only time this week you will be able to get in on these markets at a discount, the nasdaq is up 5 days in a row, this is the buying opportunity of the week, the nasdaq is off about 15 points to 5076, should touch historical highs by Wednesday so just keep buying and buying, this is the dip, should be green in the next 20 minutes or so, the biotechs are dragging the market down but in a few moments they should be back up, remember no such thing as risk...
     
  14. Are you putting your money on this?
     

  15. just did with TNA on its $3.00 drop, but I also hold shorts so right now Im hedging against my portfolio which is green now due to the sudden drop in the markets these last couple of hours....
     
  16. Too much going on. FOMC, EOM, Sell-In-May, etc...I believe both bulls and bears will somehow cheer during different periods in the next 2 weeks.
     
  17. apple earnings


    $2.33 vs $2.16

    $58 Billion Revenue

    61.17 million Iphone sales

    Ouch ipad revenue down 29% to $5.43 Billion
    Mav Rev up only 2% to $5.62 Billion Q2 iphone revenue up 55% to $40.28 Billion

    Most of Apples revenue comes from the iphone, not a good thing...how long can they derive most of their revenue from the iphone?
     
  18. 1. The market keeps going up
    2. Until everybody is crazy about the market
    3. The market will then start to go down suddenly and sharply

    The same old cycle happened again and again in the history, there is no exception. Before condition 2 has been met, condition 1 will continue.
     
  19. This sure puts things in perspective, SPY monthly chart. Basically straight up for the past three years.
     
  20. Very steep mountain.
     
  21. Just added more and averaged into YANG under $5.00 and more JDST under $7.90....
    cost averaging and waiting patiently....

    A bit ticked off I didn't sell all my XIV when I almost had an 8% gain in 4 days....now up just 2%, OUCHHHHH
     


  22. amazing, no pull back just straight up....then you question why the bulls cry when there is a 1.15% dip....


    see that ultimate turnaround the last 15 mins, dow looked liked it was about to fall off a cliff and like magic it turned around, only down about 28 points from a triple digit loss just moments ago....how come we hardly see a 110 point gain become a 28 point gain in 15 minutes?????
     
  23. fed meeting today and tomorrow BUT ABSOLUTELY NO WORRIES, there is no press conference and anything they mention at this meeting will be DOVISH DOVISH DOVISH X INFINITY, remember what I always say, THE FED BOWS TO WALLSTREET....THEY GIVE WALLSTREET WHAT IT WANT WHEN IT WANTS, remember that......

    The Fed meeting gets underway Tuesday, with the conclusion and post-meeting statement due Wednesday. A wave of disappointing domestic data since the previous FOMC meeting has spurred economists to downgrade their outlooks for the U.S. economy in 2015. Investors will be eyeing any comments from the Fed for hints as to when it might hike interest rates.

    To be sure, with no press conference on Wednesday, analysts do not expect major news out of the U.S. central bank this week.
     
  24. dow is back in the green after a triple digit loss.....see how easy that was, best buying opportunity of the week
     
  25. It seems whatever happens, "they"(Although I don't know who they are, let's just say someone) can always control the situation. Going down is not an option.
     

  26. for now its not an option, a 100 point loss became a 25 point rally in only about 30 mins, I can't even remember a 100 point gain turning into a 25 point loss in such a quick time....this proves there is zero risk in this market and that nothing can stop it, as long as central bankers are printing money to prop up global markets there will never be a decline, no one has ever witnessed such market behavior and why no one is questioning this market is beyond me, about 98% of the people think these market conditions are actually normal....thats the sad part, no one knows what a correction is, its been forgotten.....only way this market knows is up, and as long as the fed keeps rates at 0% and tells wall street no rate hikes everything is peaches and cream.
     
  27. So just buy. Everybody is making money, isn't it a good thing?
    By the way, which flavour do you want for ice-cream? I prefer chocolate.:)
     
  28. out of TNA at $90.90, small profit, will probably regret it by tomorrow afternoon when its skyrocketing back to $95+
     
  29. Some serious rowing going on for sure.
     
  30. wow, dow up 66 points from a loss of over 100, this is just incredible, zero risk zero risk zero risk, sold my TNA at $90.90 but man am I glad I held my XIV, was about to sell it but thought I know they are going to prop this market back up so let me hold it, now its back up and bright green, these markets are unreal....risk free money making markets is what they are...historical highs coming this week after the fed stays dovish and keeps wall street happy with zero interest rates for the next decade.
     
  31. Up up up and away.....At the highs of the session crys CBNC.
     
  32. nasdaq weak again, apple back in the red, should be an interesting close.....
     
  33. from cnbc.....

    I have to laugh at the comment made by qunicy krosby, he says "THERE IS A WORRY THAT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THEY WILL RAISE RATES THIS YEAR"

    this is what it has come down to, "A WORRY THAT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THEY WILL RAISE RATES THIS YEAR" this market is so fucking backwards today that you just can't understand how stupid some of these comments are...."THE FED MEETING HAS CAUSED MARKETS TO BE NERVOUS EVEN THOUGH THERE'S NO PRESS CONFERENCE....do you see the mentality of what has become of this market in todays world, that markets are nervous that rates would go from 0 fucking percent to a 1/4%, thats creating nervousness on wall street, these markets need the biggest wake up fucking call of their lifetime.....its sad to see what has become of this market and amount of reaction from a fed hike that we all know IS NOT HAPPENING ANYTIME SOON, and if it does it will be a whole 1/4 of a point probably sometime in late 2015, ohhhhh watch out a whole 1/4 point raise, keep in mind 3-4% rates is still considered an historical low...but wall street bitches have become so used to 0% that anything higher than 0% is a game over kind of situation for wall street...just goes to show you how weak this US economy is that an economy that people claim is the strongest in the world can't take on a 1/4 rate hike....try and figure that one out...



    Tuesday's afternoon gains in equities were muted, with the Nasdaq failing to stay in positive territory, as investors remained on edge ahead of Wednesday's expected Fed statement.

    "The Fed meeting has caused markets to be nervous even though there's no press conference," said Qunicy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. "There is a worry that there is a signal that they will raise rates this year."

    The Federal Market Open Committee began on Tuesday and will conclude with the release of a post-meeting statement expected at 2 p.m. on Wednesday. A wave of mostly disappointing domestic data since the previous FOMC meeting has spurred economists to downgrade their outlooks for the U.S. economy in 2015, particularly for the first quarter. Signs of economic improvement in the subsequent quarters could still support a rate hike at some point later this year.
     
  34. Haha GDP 0.2% vs 1% ...

    Is this number for real....a miss that big....lets see how they turn this into a positive news day....with gdp falling that hard after the fed has done everything to prop up the economy you have to question how is it possible that markets are at historical highs....lets be real here...there is no growth in the US....plain and simple...this whole economy is worthless....without QE 1 QE 2 AND QE 3 gdp today would be negative 3% or more....

    Come on yellen and friends lets get that QE 4 rolling....lets see that growth haha...fools.....only way to grow the economy is through cheap money policies and QE... come on yellen announce some more QE at this fed meeting today....
     
  35. Watch how quick they erase these opening losses....pay attention ...even the worse gdp miss can't keep this market down.....

    Watch the prop job take place...in 3 2 1
     
  36. buy the dip, guaranteed close above 2120 today
     
  37. Cramer said the fed has to be dovish today after such a gdp #....

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102630313


    Fuck the dovish talk....lets stop bowing down to wallstreet and get these rates up....

    But we all know the fed is going to give what wallstreet wants today like they always do...no rate hikes till 2020+
     
  38. DAX off 2.75%...ouch...think the Dow needs a solid drop like that to wake some people up
     
  39. Crush and burn.
     
  40. Which is a dream
     
  41. Oil up to $59. Up $2.00+

    Yessss can't wait to pay $4.00 this summer for a gallon of gas...$42 was a gift that should have lasted a few years but with greed and speculation on wallstreet oil is headed to $90+ by end of 2015....consumers will be using all their.savings to pay for higher gas and energy prices.....

    Oil to $65 in may
    $70 June
    $80 by end of summer
    $90-$100 by early 2016....
     
  42. Less than 1 hour everything will change once the fed gets together to calm the markets and that awesome gdp number

    Oil surging again....this is going to be great...the consumer makes up about 70% of GDP....with oil prices surging again the next gdp number might come in negative ....time for more QE...come on yellen and friends ...show your next magic trick...
     
  43. Just bough some TNA ahead of the dovish fed.....risk free money....
     
  44. ALL CALENDAR REFERENCES REMOVED


    I TOLD YOU THE FED BOWS TO WALLSTREET


    ITS FUCKING ABSOLUTELY. PATHETIC AND SHALLOW HOW THIS MARKET AND FED HAVE BECOME


    FUCKING FOOLS.....THE fed has lost all control and is completely worthless at this point with no exit plan.....the market needs to wake up and realize this....its over....they lost....removing all calendar references tells you the fed has no clue what they are doing and that rates aren't going up for years .....
     
  45. See how the fed bows to wallstreet ...more dovish talk to keep everything calm...markets almost green from a triple digit drop
     
  46. It is utter bollocks, I agree. Low interest rate is supposed to influence GDP, not shrink it. I also see easing to be a continuous event to keep ball rolling.
     
  47. They ain't gonna raise rates, for a long long time. They will keep re adjusting the metrics, just like they have been doing for the past 18 months.
     
  48. I sense markets retracing "forcing" another QE round and back up afterwards.
     
  49. The market is on the edge of going down sharply and it definitely needs the tender caring from the FED. The remaining two days are particularly important.
     
  50. Ouch....
    Is this guy reading my posts, I have been calling for a drop of that magnitude....


    Marc Faber: Stocks are about to fall 40%—at least!
    Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
    3 Hours AgoCNBC.com




    After years of forecasting gloom and doom for stocks only to watch them surge, Marc Faber is sounding the alarm as loud as ever.

    Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, believes that stocks in the U.S. and in many places around the globe are in a central bank-fueled bubble. And while he can't put a time on when that perceived bubble will pop, he prognosticates that once it does, the outcome will be horrifying.

    "For the last two years, I've been thinking that U.S. stocks are due for a correction," Faber said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "But I always say a bubble is a bubble, and if there's no correction, the market will go up, and one day it will go down, big time."

    "The market is in a position where it's not just going to be a 10 percent correction. Maybe it first goes up a bit further, but when it comes, it will be 30 percent or 40 percent minimum!" Faber asserted.

    A 40 percent decline from Wednesday's close would take the S&P 500to 1,264, a level that hasn't been seen since the early days of 2012.

    Faber says low yields and stimulative central bank policies around the world have led to a condition in which "all assets are grossly overvalued … and eventually this will unwind and cause some problems."

    Despite his massively bearish call, Faber said he's "not short the market yet," since he doesn't know how high stocks could go in the interim. Still, he makes clear that "I'm not interested to buy momentum, I'm interested to buy value."

    Read MoreWhat record-high margin debt means for stocks

    Will the S&P 500 fall 40%?
    Yes!

    19%

    It could happen

    41%

    No way

    40%

    Total Votes: 9997
    Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

    And recent market action could indicate that even the momentum has come to an end.

    "Look at the market since November of last year to now. The market is up 2 percent. It hasn't done much, and a lot of stocks are breaking down. I don't think that the market is in a healthy condition."

    Faber's calls have slowly become more dramatically bearish over time, as stocks have ticked higher. For instance, in November 2012, Faber predicted that "corporate profits are going to disappoint, the global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the reason why stocks, from the highs of September [2012] of 1,470 on the S&P, will drop at least 20 percent."

    That call has proved less than prescient. But the target implied by that call—1,176—is not too far below his current implied target of 1,264.

    Of course, for market forecasters, accuracy is probably more important than consistency.
     
  51. Did you really think they would let it fall that far....come on people...how many times have we seen this.
     
  52. Just about have a green Dow after being down 140
     
  53. WELL OFF THE LOWS CRYS CNBC...HAHAHA
     
  54. call this a joke
     
  55. Dow was down 140 now off about 40 points, notice how much push and pull there is on down days, but if the market were to open up and trade 140 points higher it would just float there for about 4 hours straight into the close....take notice of that the next time the dow is up triple digits which should be sometime tomorrow after the markets turn green today....

    no worries as each and every single dip is bought over and over and over again, it happened yesterday, and it happened again today....by tomorrow all losses will be erased for the week and everyone will be happy going to the hamptons tomorrow with even more cash in their pockets...
     
  56. Maybe we just had a resersal during the day. I am trading the CFD for stock index.
     


  57. Im not calling it a joke, we have witnessed a collapse before, back in 2009 when no one predicted it coming, this time the same holds true, no one is predicting anything and when that black swan comes from out of no where and everyone is running for the exits you will see the same fall in the markets, I don't know why this is so hard for people to understand....
     
  58. I say if it is so obvious, keep buying each dip until it stops working.
     
  59. It's been so hard for people to understand for years... Maybe other people are just to dumb and you are just too smart... I'm sorry. I just want to say forget your inference and let the market tell.
     

  60. it will be too late before you notice it stops working.....trust me....there is nothing thats going to say the dip buying is over, by that time the markets will have already corrected 10-20%

    you could buy the dip, but instead of a 300-500 point dip it might be a 3000-5000 point dip

    A dip is a dip
     
  61. That only means you have poor technical analysis skill, any down trend can be confirmed.
     
  62. You just remind me a person called supergrandcycle who had been calling the top here for years a few years back... And he disappeard. I don't know why. And somehow I miss him.
     
  63. great not only do we have oil nearing $60 again but natural gas is starting to make its climb and on top of that they think its going back to $6, currently around trading around $2.50-$2.75....

    now everyone is really going to be paying a lot more for energy in the months ahead, and they say their is no inflation, ha
     
  64. Not looking good now, anytime below 17900 for dow would be devastating
     
  65. NG is skyrocketing today

    I follow both UGAZ and DGAZ and they are trading 20% higher and DGAZ 20% lower


    Incredible
    And I was about to add on tons of shares to UGAZ and didn't....looking to get into DGAZ today and will buy UGAZ once it drops below $2 again
     
  66. LONG DGAZ at $6.65

    what a dip today.....looking to sell at $7.50+

    If it drops under $6.00 will gladly add more


    but this trade is short term, I would be going long Natrual Gas with UGAZ very soon, I think if you buy and hold UGAZ could be back above $5.00 in the months ahead....thats a huge return
     
  67. I have to say that the market has been totally manipulated and I am happy about it.
     
  68. Trust me, it is NEVER too late. Markets will not go down 10% in a single day. If you believe so, then buy some OTM puts.

    You got to trust yourself -- trust that you will turn bearish when it turns, but for now, buy the dips. What would be too late is to lose it all shorting before the peak...
     
  69. I wonder is it safe to walk on the streets of united states since you have the chance to get shot by a total stranger accidentally?
     
  70. Agree. Fed is potentially giving everybody the chance to make money.
     
  71. TZA is kicking ass today....

    hopefully it stays that way into the close....

    up over 6% whewwwww

    that is doing wonders for my account today...
     
  72. You owe me a drink for CGM and doubting double top from 2000 ;)
     
  73. You owe me a drink for CGM and doubting double top from 2000 ;)
     
  74. bought BIB @ 147 and 146.8

    just a reminder to buy the dip....this bullmarket can't end with interest rates at 0
     
  75. The amazing index futures working hard to erase 1/2 the losses yesterday on 1/10 the volume....that's how magic futures work.
     
  76. How about that 2/3 losses erased on 1/3 the volume...pretty magical.
     
  77. That's a good point.
     

  78. amazing isnt it, and notice there is never a follow through, you would think with a 200 point sell off that the next day the selling would resume but the markets get propped up once again as if there wasn't a sell off the previous day, onward and upward to new historical highs we go...

    you never know though, if this market starts to weaken we could drop another couple of hundred points by the close.....watching that 2064-2068 on the s$p
     
  79. wow, a few more points and yesterdays losses will be totally erased, just like magic...dow up 150, only 50 more to go and will be back where we started from, the magic of wall street is wonderful, amazing how quick things bounce back on wall street...
     
  80. Every single time Gartman and Faber say the market is about to go "much lower" is a time to buy
     

  81. Agree

    I can name at least 3-4 times gartman has spoken where he has been 100% wrong...

    He was wrong back in October 2014 when he thought a bigger correction was coming, a bear market he thought was coming... the day he said that a few days later the market rallied and never looked back breaking out to new highs....

    He said oil was going to get crushed and head even lower when it was in the 42-45 range, its near 60 now,

    If I have time today Ill pull up the articles from when he said this, I mean EVERY time he speaks the opposite happens....I laugh every time I see him on cnbc....
     
  82. Here you go, found the one from OCTOBER 2014 when he completely got it wrong, I mean he was 110% WRONG!!!!! WRONG!!!!!! WRONG!!!!!



    Gartman admits getting ‘bear market’ call totally wrong
    Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
    Thursday, 23 Oct 2014 | 3:39 PM ET





    Just one week after predicting a bear market in stocks was beginning, Dennis Gartman now admits his market call was all wrong. However, he's still not getting long, instead maintaining a neutral positon on the market as a whole.

    On Oct. 16, Gartman told CNBC Europe's "Squawk Box" that a bear market was beginning.

    "You stay in cash and you stay in short-term bonds and you don't move out," Gartman advised. "I don't like to think about it, but I'm afraid that this might be the very beginnings of a bear market that could last for some period of time. I think it's going to be more than a mere 7 to 10 percent correction…. This is the start of a bear market, and it could last for several more months I'm afraid."

    Read MoreBuyers beware, the bear market has begun: Gartman

    Gartman made those remarks just hours after the S&P 500 closed at the lowest level since April, and nearly reached correction territory on an intraday basis. Six sessions later, the S&P is 5 percent above where it closed on Oct. 15 (and more than 7 percent above its Oct. 15 lows).

    "In retrospect, I should have thrown all caution to the wind, covered any short positions, and spent cash and bought stocks," Gartman said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "Clearly, in retrospect, I should have bought it. I'm not that smart, nor should I ever be. Clearly, I missed the V-bottom. And I'm going to be okay with that fact."

    [​IMG]
    Adam Jeffery | CNBC
    Dennis Gartman
    So what, exactly, did Gartman miss about the market?

    "I'm not sure what I missed," he admitted. "I really don't know… This is the type of volatility that is absolutely beyond my ken. I've only been at this for 40-some years, so I'm relatively new to it. But quite honestly, I've never seen anything like the last two weeks."

    Read MoreAfter October dip, stocks may be ready for a rip

    "When you're down 300, down 200, up 200, up 300—this is not a market that I have any sense of whatsoever," he added.

    The bright side for Gartman is that he went neutral on the market when it was still above current levels, so his neutral position has worked out thus far.

    "I went to neutral two weeks ago, so the stock market is still where I went to neutral at," he said. "Usually I'll have a bias some way or the other, but right now I have absolutely no bias…. I'm absolutely neutral, and I'm very comfortable with that fact."

    This isn't the first time Gartman has changed his tune in a short-time period. In August of 2013 he predicted gold would outperform stocks; in the few weeks that followed, the S&P gained while gold slid, leading him to retract his view and get back into the stock market. In February of this year, he predicted a "quite ugly correction," before deciding that "you can't be short" a week later. In May, he again called for a correction, and again admitted he was "abundantly wrong" a week later.

    On Thursday, Gartman says his big trades now are owning propane stocks and shares of Apple.
     
  83. Here is the other call on oil from Mid march, again as soon as he said this oil jumped, now trading near $60 a barrel....

    FROM MARCH 2015





    Gartman: Crude could hit $15. Here's why
    Amanda Diaz | @CNBCDiaz
    Friday, 20 Mar 2015 | 7:48 AM ET

    Dennis Gartman has bad news for oil: It's going to go "stunningly" lower.

    In an interview Thursday with CNBC.com's "Futures Now," the Commodities King said that a combination of a rapidly rising inventories and a strong dollar could lead to $15 oil by the end of the year.

    "For months I've said that crude oil is heading from the upper left to the lower right of the chart," said the CNBC contributor and editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter. "I wouldn't be surprised if oil went down to about $15 a barrel."

    Crude oil prices have been in a steep and steady decline over the past six months, down more than 50 percent trading just above $40 a barrel. Traders had hoped an improving economic picture in both the U.S. and Europe could give crude a lift.

    At the start of February, crude staged a sharp and violent rally off its lows. But according to Gartman, there simply is too much supply to contend with. As such, he expects future crude rallies to be met with a similar fate.

    "That is not how a bull market is supposed to act," he said. "That is how a bear market acts."

    Read MoreUS crude settles down 70 cents, at $43.96 a barrel

    Gartman said he's looking to the crude futures market for clues on when the selling may abate. Currently forward prices for crude contracts are higher than near-term or spot prices, a dynamic referred to as contango. Futures traders say this is typically a bearish sign as it reflects an excess near-term supply. As inventories build, storage could soon become a serious issue.

    "We're going to have an abundance of crude. Storage is going to be topped out very soon and the front month spread is going to continue to deteriorate," he said.

    Gartman says until nearer-dated crude contracts become more valuable than longer-dated ones, oil will continue to slide.

    "No if, and, or but about it," said Gartman. "As [the contango] widens, your propensity, your urge, your intense and any [other] desire to be a buyer of crude will be deferred."
     
  84. and here he is again WRONG ON GOLD....FROM SEPTEMBER 2013


    Gartman admits he got gold and stocks all wrong
    Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
    Thursday, 12 Sep 2013 | 2:31 PM ET


    Dennis Gartman told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Thursday that his gold call last month couldn't have been more off the mark.

    Toward the end of August, Gartman had made the case that gold would outperform stocks.

    "I think the stock market has a little bit further to go on the downside, perhaps another 25 or 30 S&P points," Gartman said on the Aug. 22 episode of "Futures Now." "So if I had 'X' amount of money to put to work, I'd put it to work in the gold market."

    What's happened since then? To put it bluntly, that turned out to be dead wrong.

    From Aug. 22 to Sept. 12, the S&P added 30 points, while gold slid $40. Overall, the metal underperformed the S&P by about 5 percent.

    "Clearly I'm wrong on the gold, and there's no reason to be anything other than truthful about it," Gartman said.

    (Read more: 'Pre-emptive selling' pushes gold to 4-week low)

    "What's happened? Peace, or whatever, has broken out. And peace—or at least a lessening of the discord—is always bearish of the gold market," Gartman said.

    Whereas U.S. military action once seemed likely in Syria, the emergence of a credible diplomatic option has changed the odds completely. And since war-based uncertainty tends to boost gold, the smaller chance of a strike took a serious toll on it.

    (Read more: More 'innocent victims' if US strikes Syria: Putin)

    Gartman also pointed out that gold had been a crowded trade, saying, "A lot of people were bullish, a lot of people were long."

    [​IMG]
    Adam Jeffery | CNBC
    Dennis Gartman
    Finally, he said, expectations that the Federal Reserve will taper their quantitative easing program has become a massive concern for bullion.

    "It appears to me the economy's doing better. That reduces the amount of accommodation that we think the Federal Reserve is going to push into the market."

    (Read more: Keep calm and buy the taper: Pro)

    All in all, buying gold toward the end of August turned into a "Murphy's Law" trade: Everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

    "Throw peace on top of lesser accommodation on top of quietly reduced commodity prices generally on top of rising stock prices—all those things rolled into one great bouillabaisse says gold prices want to go lower," he said. "They have been going lower, and it's really getting quite ugly, isn't it?"

    So instead of waiting for the trend to reverse, Gartman is now taking the other side.

    When looking at the market today, "I actually don't like gold better than stocks," he said. "About a week and a half ago I started buying stocks again."

    In a mid-august appearance on CNBC's "Closing Bell," Gartman said he was going to the sidelines on stocks after "terrible" trades in recent weeks.

    —By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg.
     
  85. And yet another WRONG CALL, FEBRUARY 2014

    4 completely wrong calls so far.......

    The day he says markets are going to rally 20% or the dow is headed to 22,000 or the s$p is headed to 2300 by the summer of 2015, SELL SELL SELL.....


    Dennis Gartman: ‘I was wrong’
    Bruno J. Navarro | @Bruno_J_Navarro
    Monday, 10 Feb 2014 | 6:32 PM ET





    A prediction that stocks would see a 15 percent correction was off, Dennis Gartman said Monday.

    "Vociferously, I'd say I was wrong," he said. "We got to a trend line that really did hold. I didn't think it would hold. It did, in fact, hold."

    Last week on CNBC's "Fast Money," Gartman said that the S&P 500 could see a 15 percent pullback from its earlier high, testing the 1,475 level on the downside. But he also said that the market was still in a bull trend.

    "I just think you're going to have a very severe, very substantive and really quite ugly correction that will probably make a lot of people wail and gnash their teeth before it's done," he said last week.

    (Read more: 'Ugly correction' coming: Dennis Gartman)

    All three major U.S. indices closed higher Monday, with the S&P 500, climbing 2.8 percent to end the day at 1,799.84.

    "I have been neutral, honestly, of stocks. When I talked about that, I thought we would have a 15 percent correction," Gartman said. "But I also said it's still a bull market, and in a bull market you can only have one of three positions: Really long, nicely long or neutral."

    Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, said that his call for a correction came from an expectation that trend lines would break.

    "I looked at a lot of the indices," he said. "The Nasdaq did, in fact, break its trend line. The Dow began to diverge. You started to get less-than-exciting earnings coming out in various stocks. You had the currency markets, I think, in difficulty a couple of weeks ago. …"

    "You had copper breaking trend lines. You had an awful lot of things happening, all in a five- or six-day period of time that certainly did look terrifying for a couple of days. And then, all of a sudden, it's as if the cover had been lifted off. The amount of selling that needed to be done was done — was done at higher levels than I thought it would be accomplished at."

    Gartman also said that he was holding positions in aluminum, shipping and fracking plays, as well as bank shares, but had hedged them with derivatives.

    Still, Gartman said he would remain neutral for now.

    "Yes, I'm still neutral on equities, but if we can go sideways for a couple of days, if we don't backtrack, if the volume subsides on a sideways movement, I'll come back in and say the trend is still up," he said. "The one thing I will tell you is: You can't be short. It's still a bull market. That's what's really important. It's one thing to lose money. It's another thing not to make money. And if you're short, you're losing money."

    Brian Kelly of Brian Kelly Capital took an opposing position.

    "Unlike the Godfather, Dennis Gartman, I am still short. And I think you can be short this market," he said. "I think there's a real risk that (Federal Reserve Chair) Janet Yellen comes out a lot more hawkish than people have priced in here, and I don't think the emerging-market currency issues are over. I think we're just in the eye of the storm."
     
  86. Can't we just kick the wrong guy out and never let him have a say or give him an interview about the market any more?
     
  87. S2007S has had an equally bad forecasting history. How many more posts will he put up saying markets are "free money" and going up but predicting a giant collapse as well ( which indicates a risk ) ? How often will he post about his triple bull ETFs going up when his net account position is according to him short ?
     
  88. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
     
  89. The top is in................ maybe a couple of days sideways and then further down
     
  90. Top is very close
     
  91. is it safe to assume you're short the market?
     
  92. I am Short Nikkei
     
  93. Old adage still stands - buy low, sell high. Whenever price is high look for price weakening and vice versa. Risk to reward is more than appropriate, even if one gets stopped out a few times. Now is one of those situations. Smart money isn't going to keep on accumulating at these levels.

    Naz monthly.png
     
  94. You posted this October 2009 :

     
  95. Your chart suggests now is similar to 1997. The index rallied up heavily after that point. There is a lesson there for you. I think it's funny you posted a chart that suggests the exact opposite of what you are trying to defend. I can think of more fundamental reasons for a correction, but the technical's aren't helping you here.
     
  96. Nobody is perfect mate, here is yours from 2010..."Markets will not double but the long bias may be decent over the next 9 months, especially in commodity based stocks."
     
  97. I posted on this site that the bull market will last at least 4-5 years. One of the few on here willing to say that very early in the move. I don't pretend to know exactly when bull or bear markets will turn, because that's a fools game. Wait in cash if you think a correction is coming, don't trade against momentum.

    I'd have to see the context of my post, because I'd never say markets won't double longer term. They always do, they appreciate throughout history because companies grow.
     

  98. Wait, what is your current asset allocation then? cash or stocks?
     
  99. A smart guy wouldn't make any call or he can only predict according to the market situation at that moment. From my point of view, I think a correction can be expected. The party is getting started.
     
  100. I said I was short Nikkei, based on time frame being traded it's a sound trade so far. With US indexes I have pointed out that IMO the current oscillation is reaching its peak. Your statement about technicals not helping is full of arrogance. Opinions based on perception of fundamentals are totally dependent on technicals.
     
  101. another risk free day in the land of the perfect
     
  102. How about that VIX, rigged to perfection and the gap up Monday, looks like everything is back to normal.
     
  103. Watch how light the volume will be today.
     
  104. Yes, one day it will go down. But today it's up, and for the past three years it's been up.
     
  105. just like that new historical highs coming on the s$p....no risk all reward all the time.....like I mentioned last week I think were going for a 2-3% super rally this week, all indexes will close at historical highs this week...notice how they gracefully got the dow up 100 points in the first 30 mins, now another 5 hours of sideway trading until the close....rinse and repeat rinse and repeat, if this were a 100 point drop they would manage to get it positive by lunch but with a 100 point gain there is no way in hell you are going to get a buying opportunity, the buying opportunity was buying the dip last week when the bio techs sold off, this week there will be ZERO buying opportunities, it will be straight up....just keep buying the highs, you CANT LOSE!!!
     

  106. no past 6 years you mean, thats when this risk free bull market began....
    the last minor dip happened 3 years ago, but thats been it...there have been no major corrections in years...
     
  107. Borrowing is rising in the stock market as well. In March, stock-market margin debt hit $476.4 billion, the highest level in records going back more than 50 years, according to the New York Stock Exchange.
     
  108. Half of the gains from Friday and today came from the overnight futures session on very little volume. The cash markets gap up on the open. Very seldom do you see the cash markets gap down on the open.
     
  109. Thats it...now sideways for 5.5 hours....thanks for playing...take the rest of the day off. All you will do is run up commissions.
     
  110. LOL...is anyone buying at these levels?

    I mean, anyone here. Obviously someone is buying.
     


  111. RECORDS on wall street since the collapse of 2007


    $70 Trillion in TOTAL GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET VALUE,
    Stimulus-Fed Rally Back On as Global Stocks Top $70 Trillion

    Stocks worldwide have gained about $5 trillion in value in 2015 so far this year ALONE

    [​IMG]
    SOURCE: BLOOMBERG




    $476 Billion in stock margin DEBT





    As of March 31st, 10,149 hedge funds previous high was in 2007 when 10,096 existed, 1040 new funds ALONE HAVE LAUNCHED in 2014!!!

    Total industry assets in hedge funds are $2.94 trillion, another all-time high





    CHRISTIE’S CONTEMPORARY ART SALE NETS $852.9 M., ALL-TIME AUCTION RECORD
    BY Dan Duray POSTED 11/12/14 11:59 PM


    [​IMG]

    This untitled Cy Twombly from 1970 handily surpassed its estimate, $35 million to $55 million, selling for $69.6 million with premium.

    (see that art piece above, just a bunch of circles that a 2nd grader can do, sells for $69.6 million dollars in November 2014, but don't tell that to the one who paid $70 million dollars or any of those working in that market, because everyone knows you can flip art and make millions in this bubble art market, Im sure this will sell for over $100 million in 2020 if it ever goes back to auction, nothing says bubble like the contemporary art market, bubble bubble bubble.....Did I say BUBBLE!!!!



    Contemporary Art Surges in New York


    October 2, 2014 by Karolina Prawdzik

    Karolina Prawdzik is an art market researcher based in Luxembourg. She has a background in finance and alternative investments, with a special focus on luxury assets like gems and art. This is her analysis of the New York Contemporary art sales:
    [​IMG]






    The result, announced on Monday, was a crushing sales success: Nearly one million more vehicles were sold in the United States last year than in 2013. According to the tracking company Autodata, 16.5 million new autos hit the streets — the highest number since the record of 16.94 million in the prerecession days of 2006.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/06/business/us-auto-sales-jump-for-2014.html?_r=0






    $28.5B in bonuses, an average of $172K, breaks post-Great Recession record



    Fed’s balance sheet reach $4.5 trillion




    Car loans break record at $886 Billion in 4th Quarter of 2014,
    highest level since the firm began publicly reporting the data in 2007






    $1.2 Trillion in Student loan debt, highest in history!!

    [​IMG]

    For a more dramatic look at the same data, here it is with a standard linear axis.

    [​IMG]









    Record 2014 IPO MARKET.....275 deals that raised $85 billion, making it the most active year for the IPO market since 2000. Remember 2000 was when we had that dot com bubble,
    I'm sure most forgot by now...





    Optimism was high on the private equity (PE) exit front going into 2014, but as we explain in Bain & Company’s Global Private Equity Report 2015, exits shattered even the lofty expectations of an industry primed for a good year. Worldwide, the number and value of buyout-backed exits reached new records (see figure).
    At better than 1,250 sales, last year’s exit count surpassed its previous peak of 1,219 transactions in 2007. And total exit value, at $456 billion, also blew past its previous record of $354 billion in 2007 and was 67% higher than it was in 2013.

    [​IMG]










    Record Buy backs, there is going to be $1 TRILLION worth of buybacks this year, highest on RECORD....At the current pace, stock buyback authorizations are set to total $1 trillion this year, blowing past 2007’s record of $863 billion

    [​IMG]


    Companies in the S&P 500 spent $564.7 billion on share repurchases over the past 12 months, which was a year-over-year increase of 18%, according to FactSet Research. In fact, 72% of all companies in the index bought back shares in the fourth quarter of 2014.

    Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/are-r...o-much-of-a-good-thing-cm463261#ixzz3ZBJobw45








    Ill keep the list updated and will add new records as they come along, these I listed are just some, there are plenty of more records set since the financial crisis, but this time its different as there is absolutely nothing to worry about, move along as the fed balance sheet swells to records never seen before, ....remember the fed has created the next asset bubble, its here and isnt going away until the next collapse comes...the only way to grow todays economy is though the development of asset bubbles, thats what has been happening for close to 30 years now as we have forgotten what a real economy is all about...economics 101 doesn't exist any longer and never will since the fed and central banks now control the markets and everything in between, as there is no organic growth left at all in the US everything we rely on now comes from stimulus and worthless dollars....
     
  112. Market is up now. DOW up about 80 points. I believe market will retreat at close. Let's see. Read Bill Gross and Ichan calls on Marketwatch.com
     
  113. [​IMG]
     
  114. Just buy the cash close today, the index futures will rally tonight. Easy money to be made overnight.
     
  115. another boring day....market trades flat for hour, least on those down days when there is a minor dip there is still some volatility, days like today there is zero volatility..


    Look at that huge volume going into the close


    SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
    -NYSEArca  Watchlist
    211.50 [​IMG] 0.78(0.37%) 3:40PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

    Add to Portfolio
    Prev Close: 210.72
    Open: 211.23
    Bid: 211.63 x 900
    Ask: 211.64 x 12700
    NAV¹: 210.73
    Net Assets²: 185.41B
    YTD Return (Mkt)²: 0.88%
    Day's Range: 211.10 - 212.02
    52wk Range: 181.92 - 212.97
    Volume: 52,079,986
    Avg Vol (3m): 106,421,000

    P/E (ttm)²: 18
    Yield (ttm)²: 1.91
    ¹As of May 1, 2015

    ²As of Mar 31, 2015
     
  116. Position set for overnight drift higher.
     
  117. Least he is one of the few who knows you can't fix a debt crisis with more debt...


    Gross slammed the idea that central banks could continue to sustain their economies and fix debt crises with more debt. He noted that the US had not seen real growth above 2% since the crisis, despite the Fed's "trillions of dollars of monetary lighter fluid." And that's bad news for Japan and the eurozone.
     
  118. Oil above $60.....that drop in oil was short lived just like every single dip on wallstreet ...now we get $70 oil by early summer...$80 by fall and back to $100 by end of 2015...can't wait to pay $4 for gas...don't worry there is no inflation even as oil surges from $42 to $60+ in only 2 months.
     
  119. Did you really think they were going to let the index futures stay down...haha not a chance.
     
  120. It's gonna be boring today.
     
  121. BTFD! 209.95
     
  122. This must be the mindless BTFD opportunity of the year.
     
  123. Anyone buying this dip? I was going to buy XIV but still waiting for a drop below $39. Oil surging.....think ill sell some of YANG :)
     
  124. Remind me again why oil is surging the last 2 months as it continues to stockpile?
    Tomorrow oil could surge to 65 if numbers show were using more compared to the last few weeks...


    OIL60.93 2.00 +3.39%
     
  125. I bought SPY@209.95 and kept buying lower. Feels really mindless because it will surely go up. Not saying it will stick higher, but rally for an hour, of course...
     
  126. There we go.....well off the lows crys CNBC.....So funny and so easy making risk free money.
     
  127. Today it's down and will continue
     
  128. Question is does the market bounce back 1% + tomorrow and gain back today's losses????

    wait wait who are we kidding, everyone knows tomorrow we rally...
    buy the dip in the after hours and get ready for the massive turnaround rally tomorrow
    no risk...remember that..
     
  129. Market is on the verge of a breakout, it's been ranging for some time now. Trend remains up, yet looks topped to me. I am still short Nikkei as don't see daily bearish oscillation run its course.
     
  130. Zero risk....if you bought today's dip you will automatically make free money tomorrow when the markets gap up over 1/2% at the open...all loses will be completely erased by mid day......it's impossible to get two down days in a row on wallstreet


    Futures should gap up the entire night right into the morning...
    Even oil is surging and should be back to $75 by summer and $100 by winter....thank you wallstreet once again for inflating oil prices...can't wait to pay $4.00 a gallon...

    S$p fuT2092.00 8.00 +0.38%
    DOW FUT17933.00 69.00 +0.39%
    NAS FUT4422.50 15.00 +0.34%
    OIL61.39 0.99 +1.64% More Markets 11:48:55 PM ET
     
  131. Interesting juncture, as if market is waiting on the FED to throw it a bone (QE) up we go or if not then down we head (for now).
     
  132. Do you imply that the index is a dog?
     
  133. I can't believe your asking this question...It always bounces back. It won't fall until we are closer to a new administration.
     
  134. Wow that was the biggest head fake i have seen all year.
     
  135. 160 point drop in the dow futures in 10 minutes.
     
  136. Oh i get it a flash crash anniversary.
     

  137. yes, huge head fake, I can't believe how quick it turned, that is EXTREMELY unusual

    I did buy XIV on the DIP...

    Also looking to buy DWTI about 10:30 when oil supply data comes out....
    I still own UWTI which has been on an absolute tear only thing is I sold 1/2 a position at $2.40 in my other account and missed out on huge gains, but still own good amount of shares, thinking of selling since oil has had quite a huge run these last few weeks...

    oh and YANG is kicking A$$ as well, bought at $5 and again at $5.25...looking to sell soon, just thinking that the asia markets are due for a severe pullback, so will see
     
  138. IN DWTI at $58.00....

    even if it dips more Ill buy, I know oil is headed higher, a lot higher but I think a pull back is due down to the the 55 area.....
     
  139. wow, this market is losing all credibility, do we buy the dip, hahaha
     
  140. I can't wait for the next fed emergency meeting, it will happen once all global exchanges are losing trillions in value and the dow is correcting more than 10%, they will come out and push rates NEGATIVE and announce QE 4, but guess what? That WILL NOT SAVE the markets, the markets and economy are done, there is nothing they can do now to prop it up, the entire world is moving rates to 0% so the only move next after 0% is NEGATIVE RATES and QE 4....
    And everyone thinks the FED saved the market and economy hah.....just wait and see whats going to happen. The fed is useless at this point, everything is going to work against them...
     
  141. The anti-drop mechanism is working now...
     
  142. were going back up folks, did anyone get long? I bought some XIV and that was it, about to sell YANG because I think were headed back up to historical highs, nothing can keep this market down....even yellen mentioned that stocks were over valued but said no such thing as bubble so that means keep buying, if she said there is no bubble, there is no bubble, the fed is always right, remember that....
     
  143. out 1/2 of yang at $5.65, nice 12% + gain still holding 1/2 just in case this market gets a little out of control



    just sold UWTI, had a fantastic run holding it, made over 30% bought at $3 sold at $4.05, my original price I bought my other shares was around $2 and sold those wayyyyyy to early at $2.40 but glad I got to sell 1/2 at $4.00...cant complain...totally out of it now and long DWTI, WILL now wait for the next drop in oil to get back in when oil is back trading under $55, now holding DWTI at $58.00, hoping this trade works out, sell price on DWTI
    $75+++
     

  144. I got out 50% of my YANG (or equivalent) too...thinking of the other 50%?
     

  145. not yet, if these markets sell off hard into the close asia will follow which should lead to another gain in YANG tomorrow, I think I might sell the rest above $6.00, I missed out on RUSS this morning under $6.50 since I was paying more attention to the oil numbers that came out this morning...but RUSS is another one I'm looking at UNDER $6.50, if it gets there today again Im in.
     
  146. new lows on the day coming, MY XIV ehhh not so good, but DWTI up
     
  147. Flash crash of 5/6/2005 five years later?
     
  148. Whew and new lows of the day have arrived, if they don't prop up this market up in the next 20 minutes its going to be a really hard close, S$P is about to break support around 2065, if that happens this week is going to be quite volatile. Especially on Friday with the job numbers due out, I hedged with XIV this morning thinking the markets were going to turn, so far XIV is going down but not worried since I have a ton of short etfs on....will add more XIV under $35 until then will see what happens....
     
  149. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, as it stands it's a retracement.
     
  150. Good I was afraid all the bulls left.
     


  151. cool, Just added more XIV, couldn't resist the sell off, hedging against all my shorts which are doing absolutely awesome today....
     
  152. glad I went long XIV, bought more when it was under $39 an hour ago....


    don't you hate when you buy a stock and it trades lower and then moves past your buy price, its like if you had just waited those extra hours you could have made just a bit extra, that happened with XIV today, I bought it thinking we were going to get a quick reversal to the upside so I jumped in around $39.85, fell over $1.25 in only a few hours and is finally climbing back up, holding it until fridays job report, could be back above $41 in no time...
     
  153. incredible rally the last hour, the s$p was just on its support line and like magic it propped right back up, 2068 to 2080 is quite an impressive run, I think the markets rally hard tomorrow, Friday it all depends on the jobs report, so until then will see but with a strong close today I think it keeps up into tomorrows open...going to be an interesting day to say the least. This is what I like to see, A lot of up and down, today alone I made 5 trades, past week or so haven't made any at all, maybe 1 here and or there but today it was just a day to trade and hopefully the remaining days ahead are the same.
     
  154. Well off the lows crys CNBC.......I bet the futures rally tonight.
     

  155. Tonight they definitely rally, no questions asked, there is no way the markets fall for a third day in a row triple digits....thats why I'm long XIV and sold 1/2 Yang. I know the rally comes tomorrow, as for friday thats all up to the job numbers, last month they missed by 4 miles, all i know is were moving another triple digits tomorrow no questions asked....
     
  156. I agree and expect the market to go higher tomorrow - it was only Yellen's fat mouth that drove it down.
     
  157. I could see it being a half day rally though, if speculators start to take positions to price in the job report in the afternoon prior to Friday. Should be interesting either way, I went long before the close, already up nicely.
     
  158. I don't think retracement is over though.
     
  159. Nice Head & Shoulder pattern in TSLA weekly chart.
     
  160. The price has been Lower than the Low of 17th April, which means the party is Getting Started. This time the topic of the party is "the return of the bear". Boys, let's get the drink and wait.
     
  161. Futures down triple digits this morning...im quite surprised by this....looks like support will be just about broken on the s$p this morning.....haven't seen the markets like this in a lonnng time....Asia was down a lot last nite and Europe down nearly 2%%...who knows if this is a dip or the start of a serious correction ....


    Wall Street set to open sharply lower as yields weigh
    S&P FUT2060.50 -13.75 -0.66%
    DOW FUT17663.00 -115.00 -0.65%
    NAS FUT4339.25 -33.75 -0.77%
     
  162. Double top
     
  163. The future has proven what I said. Since the party has started, I don't think we will have a quite good non-farm payrolls and employment rate this Friday, could be the catalyst.
     
  164. market should power ahead I predict at least a triple digit gain of 125+ points going into the close.....as soon as the momentum builds its moving higher....I sold my DWTI today at $64 even though I know its going to $75+ figure let me take profit after seeing it run up $5+ and the rest of YANG at $6.00, holding XIV and ERX for the RALLY !!!! XIV should power back to $40+ and ERX to 62-64 by tomorrow if all goes well and the market turns north....

    Other than that still short...
     
  165. They can always find a way to lift the index, I have nothing to say. Selling would be an extremely bumpy road.
     
  166. The safest sell is when a key Daily and upward support is 'violated', everything above is just noise, some profit taking, but no serious distribution. In SPX cash your key levels are 1980 and 1820, that's where there will be some serious sell orders once index starts breaking those levels.
     
  167. Sold All ERX and out 1/3 position in XIV....waiting for job numbers tomorrow...think I'm done for the day unless there is some heavy volatility this afternoon...will wait patiently though for S$P to break 2060's, then comes some real selling could happen as early as tomorrow if job numbers aren't a favorite on wall street.
     
  168. Didn't expect that you would see it that low! Sometimes it could reverse after a fake breaking at a serious level, which can be very tricky.
     
  169. That's just my 1 tick, the only way to look at macro and make any sense of it is by analysing longer term trends, as those levels are what key players are monitoring. If they remain, buying will resume, if they fold considerable profit taking will be initiated.
     
  170. Ride the free money train choo choo $$$$$$$$$
     
  171. BUY LOW SELL HIGH
     
  172. That's hourly.
     
  173. How about now?
     
  174. 90 MINUTE
     
  175. ouch sold my DWTI position way wayyyyyy to early at $64 this morning, now trading at $68, $75 probably by next week...would go long UWTI again under $2.50 or when or if Oil trades back down below $50 a barrel
     


  176. Just as I said Xiaomi is coming at apple full force, this is an article written today, as I said a couple of weeks ago once Xiaomi starts selling phones in the US its going to start taking market share away from apple....their phones are priced very reasonable compared to all smart phones on the market and if I could buy one out of contract for $200-$300 I would be a buyer of their phones right away....

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102646636

    Xiaomi, China's largest smartphone company, will begin selling headphones, smart wristbands and accessories online in the U.S. in the coming months, taking its first tentative step onto Apple's home turf without its signature Mi 4 mobile devices.

    Last year was a blockbuster year for Xiaomi. Behind Samsung and Apple, Xiaomi is now the third-largest phone manufacturer worldwide. A round of new investment puts Xiaomi's worth at $45 billion, making it the most valuable private tech company worldwide. So far, this year is off to a rollicking start, as the five-year-old company introduced in India its Mi 4i, the first of its smartphones to make its public debut outside of China.
     
  177. tomorrow we might find out if "sell in may and go away" has any credibility
     
  178. Peter Schiff is right on....


    Schiff 'half' agrees with Janet Yellen
    1 Hour Ago
    Euro Pacific Capital's Peter Schiff says Fed Chair Janet Yellen is right about the market being overvalued, with CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis and the Futures Now traders, Scott Nations and Jeff Kilburg, both at the CME.


    Scott Nations always disagrees with Schiff no matter what yet Peter Schiff called the financial crisis in 2007-2009 right and he is calling the next crisis thats coming...


    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000377471

    <iframe src="http://player.theplatform.com/p/gZWlPC/cnbc_global?playertype=synd&byGuid=3000377471&size=530_298" width="530" height="298" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" bgcolor="#131313"></iframe>
     
  179. Why tomorrow?
     
  180. there has to be a catalyst to break the s&p out of the range its been in since february

    tomorrow's payroll report might be it
     
  181. I think tomorrow is a coin toss, the jobs report estimates are not bad and not great, so who knows. We need a really bad report to get a rally, a really good report could cause a selloff due to rate hike fears.
     
  182. No reason for it to be a coin toss, all major cash indices got haramis in the daily, next direction will be provided by price itself, follow the price lead and fuck the news interpretation.
     
  183. So are you bullish into tomorrow based on haramis?
     
  184. Flat, don't have a clear read.
     
  185. That's what I am seeing, especially after third attempt paired with rejection of Naz year 2000 zone (ATH). We tested current highs 3-4 times, now 2045 zone is in play. Asia is not going up straight away having pierced through and locked below their rising TLs. DAX is retracing too from its uber rise.


    SPX daily.png
     
  186. that chart has merit but that could also be a headfake breakout lower; we'll find out tomorow
     
  187. I remain bearish via Nikkei (more bang for the buck) that being a swing trade with higher than usual risk. Intraday I will just try to latch on to whatever is on the table.
     
  188. Important thing now is not wanting to get picky with catching bottoms or tops for the next big move, what's important moving forward is to be right, let the smoke clear, then ride til the new horizon.

    Market is fairly easy to trade if you have patience for clarity.
     
  189. I like this one - to win you have to give time for opponent to lose.

     
  190. Schiff is your classic broken clock, he's bound to be right eventually. I also believe he isn't as dumb as he acts, he has every incentive to lie considering all of his conflicts of interest, i.e. being a precious metals dealer, etc.
     
  191. Job numbers in less than 15 minutes

    Looking for 224,000


    Last month it was a total miss....
     
  192. 223,000

    Right in line...

    Markets should love this number ....
    Back above 18,000 today
     
  193. Futures surging....if this rally doesn't hold today these markets are in big trouble ....
     
  194. free $$$ 0 risk 100% upside to go
     
  195. So easy making free money in a market that always goes back up.
     
  196. It really is risk free....Position yourself for a breakout to the upside.
     
  197. ERY JUST TURNED RED...

    energy falling 10 mins into open...market could weaken further...
     
  198. Now sideways for 6 hours, thanks for playing have a nice day.
     
  199. I should have gotten out of YANG...
     

  200. Why didn't you? I knew to lighten up some positions ahead of the job report...



    I got out 1/2 position at $5.65 and the rest yesterday at $6.00, I knew the run up was done after yesterday, no worries, just average down when it gets to $5.00 again and hold it....it does have a reverse split coming 1 for 10 on May 20th....so shares trading at $5.50 will open at $55 that day and what ever shares you hold will be divided into 10, so if you hold 100 shares they will now be 10 shares....
     
  201. I think the dow will close or come close to a record historical high today, this is a day where the market goes straight up right into the close, don't be a FOOL and buy the dow up 250+ points, I don't know why people do that, I only buy long ETFs on down days to hedge against my shorts, never will buy a long ETF or go long any stock with the dow up over 200 points, same thing when markets are falling, I never buy short ETFs when markets are falling because I know at that point its too late....Im sure there are lots of people taking on long positions when all they had to do was buy the dip these last few days....Again do not go long with the dow up over 250 points....wait till it dips...
     
  202. This is crazy!!!!!!!
     
  203. What a manipulated market!
     

  204. today is a little crazy, the numbers were as expected but I think its all that fed talk about not raising rates that still has this market pumped up....every time the market looks like its going to break support it gets propped right back up....the s$p was literally on the edge of breaking down this week, this rally today is saving that from happening, it will happen but for now they just bought a little extra time....if the dow does lose momentum today and drop into the red its going to be trouble for next week, but for now as I said last week I think the markets make new highs and then pull back...im still short, Im in the red today with this huge triple digit gain but so glad I bought XIV 2 days ago when the dow was off triple digits, its helping me a bit today....im not selling it until the dow breaks a new high next week, its not far from there and should happen on Monday morning when the markets open...its still a risk free market, yellen said the markets looked overvalued and she said that when the dow was under 18,000, so I wonder what she will say when the dow is up 3-4% from here???
     
  205. ahhh see this is why the markets are up 250+ points and headed to historical highs...

    Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said the muted gains in wages would likely push out a rate hike and were the primary driver for the jump in stock futures.



    see its all about that rate hike, this market is all about no rate hikes, the longer they don't raise the bigger and bigger this bubble gets, the fed wont admit its a bubble but it is, this is going to end the same way it did in 2000 and 2008 where markets collapsed, this time however the collapse is going to be much worse as they will not let this market correct or raise rates which will lead to an asset bubble bigger than dot com bubble and housing bubble combined...
     
  206. She is just a lier because she can't say the market is manipulated, in other way she could only say the market looks a bit overvalued.
     
  207. wow, XIV just keeps climbing, it hasn't pulled back more than 10 cents since the open, just straight up, now trading at $42.06....this is when I get stuck and don't know if I should sell the entire position or 1/2...I sold some off yesterday at $39.65, big mistake since its up over 5% right now...
     
  208. not this time
     
  209. zero pull back since the open, 300+ is coming....amazing how a job number that was in line has caused a massive rally, doesn't make much since, its not like the economy added 585,000 jobs compared to the 224,000 they were looking for, this rally should be sold or at least lighten up on any long positions you took, sell the rest after the dow breaks highs and wait for the pullback once again, this rally is way ahead of itself today...

    Dow up 270 right now....not one pullback since the open, only way to have made money today was to buy the dip the last couple of days....again if this rally loses steam and we go negative next week is going to be very very interesting...until then keep trading this risk free market...

    zero risk ALL REWARD ALL THE TIME!!!
     
  210. Here is what im expecting out of this Pennant formation, by the end of Q2 that's the end of June 2015. Im going to start building a position, the only problem is contract rollover in June. I need to formulate a plan for that.
     
  211.  
  212. 120 MINUTE EMINI SP500
     
  213. out 1/2 position in XIV at 41.80.....have a 1/2 position on for the rally starting monday, everyone knows the dow has to close at record highs next week, I thought it was going to be this week but I missed it by a few points...
     

  214. I like that line you drew, if that holds true thats going to be awesome....that means there is no such thing as sell in may and go away, that is truly a risk free money making chart you have right there....
     
  215. i think if we don't close above 2120 today, there may be more selling next week
     
  216. I looked at a few articles about this with historical performance and the impression I got is that late May is the time to sell.
     
  217. The market is currently pricing the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate yield at 1 percent for the end of 2016 and 1.5 percent for 2017, Mark Kiesel said. The central bank has kept rates near zero since December 2008




    wowowowowow....1% for end of 2016 and 1.5% for 2017 hahaha

    big moves there don't you think....

    by then unemployment should be under 5%, the fed has no clue what they are doing...
    its actually going to be 0% for 2015, maybe 1/4 by 2016 and by 2017 maybe .50% but really if you think about the fed wont be able to move once the recession comes and stocks are down 30%+ so in reality by 2017 rates should still be at 0%...remember the fed has no way out this time, they have used all their foolish ways to prop up the market that once it corrects and a recession is here they will have nothing to fix it and that will cause even more panic on wall street which will cause the collapse.
     
  218. Not in the slightest, you need to educate yourself, don't be an emotional fool like S2007S.
    For starters, try to find out who owns large corporations and what motivates them. Understand mutual fund and ETF flows and who owns them. Understand what QE really is, and that governments have been involved in similar fiscal programs off and on for decades. Understand that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with low interest rates, and any reason to raise them has nothing to do with market performance ( get the cause and effect in the right direction ).

    Or just remain ignorant and post silly emotional rants like S2007S, pretend that this years market is something extraordinary ( it's not, what percentage have US markets risen this year and how does that rank historically ? ).

    You claim it's a "manipulated market" ??? Manipulated by who, and what evidence do you have on that ? Seriously now, it's a bull market and until it's over don't claim every one day jump is something extraordinary.
     
  219. Just as I said.....sideways for 5.5 hours
     
  220. Care to predict Monday's price action?
     
  221. Holding Nikkei short into next week. It almost reached my target of 19k this week, but I made a decision not to take profits as divergence on its daily chart is just too sweet.
     
  222. BTW I see GOOG as a sell. It seems to have run out of steam, target $486
     
  223. I agree with many of your points; however, the U.S. Fed has a dual mandate, so they could postpone a rate hike if they knew markets would correct significantly and companies would layoff employees - the markets perception of this mandate is the entire basis of today's rally. Of course, how much "weight" they give to each mandate is the most important question. These quotes from the Chicago Fed are very troubling to me as it seems to suggest they would tolerate very high inflation (and stock market speculation) to meet the unemployment mandate.

    "The most reasonable interpretation of our maximum employment objective is an unemployment rate near its natural rate, and a fairly conservative estimate of that natural rate is 6%. So, when unemployment stands at 9%, we’re missing on our employment mandate by 3 full percentage points. That’s just as bad as 5% inflation versus a 2% target. So, if 5% inflation would have our hair on fire, so should 9% unemployment."

    "The trigger policy I noted above and level-targeting policies may result in inflation running at rates that would make us uncomfortable during normal times. But we should not be afraid of such temporarily higher inflation results today."

    https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2011/09-07-dual-mandate
     
  224. Romik, are you still trading Palladium? I feel like going long on fundamentals after it corrects a touch.
     
  225. Yes, I am holding mid-long term. I have 11 positions open at present.
     
  226. Cool. You are long?
     
  227. Short
     
  228. Thats what I thought, thanks.
     
  229. I'm unclear on how US markets will play out the rest of this year, but my instincts suggest a corrective phase during the summer anticipating some modest interest rate hikes that likely will occur this fall ( just like Canada did in fall 2010 ). I swing trade indexes for my long term investments, did really well from 2009-2013, in 100% cash since late May 2013 and that ended up being too early. Missed 2-3 logical entry points since because I tried to time the bottom of each correction too well. October 2014 I was on the fence ready to buy and missed out by a day.

    Seasonality that you mentioned is an important aspect of my choices on these funds, in concert with major historical support/resistance points. Note this is my conservative money, capital conservation is more important then swinging for HRs. Over my lifetime, I've noticed that a patient approach to indexes is the best policy, there are always really good entry points at some point, and today's US markets I don't think look attractive all things being considered. But I was wrong in 2013 so I could be wrong in 2015. March 2009 was an obvious buying opportunity in Canada, I knew once the highly profitable Canadian banks were out of favour that market sentiment was way overdone on the sell side.
     
  230. Markets are rangy these years, one must be bi-directional until this condition changes.
     
  231. If you look at the Thursday close of the european market, you know Friday would be a long.
     
  232. And now you tell us?

    :)
     
  233. Ill know more Sunday night. The pattern has been to sell in this area. Im looking for a breakout at some point, to the upside as I stated in a chart.
     
  234.  
  235. My gut tells me last Friday was a head fake.
     
  236. the chinese central bank disagrees with your gut
     
  237. I am not betting against China, in fact I don't trade anything Chinese due to their manipulation of markets.
     
  238. their stock market might not affect global markets much but if you look at the past 2 times the chinese central bank cut rates, the US, japanese, and european markets rallied
     
  239. I'm pretty sure the VIX will gap up on Mondays cash open. That's about all i feel sure of right now....current position in ES.
     
  240. Just as I thought...VIX gap up...matters not were the stock index futures are.
     
  241. where's all the bears at? hahahahahaha
     
  242. As we get close to lunch we will without a doubt be at the "HIGHS OF THE SESSION"
     
  243. ...
     
  244. When I was reading S2007's posts I kept thinking he must have had an accident and hurt his head as I remembered him in different light, then it dawned on me that it was Spectre2007 LOL
     
  245. Futures sinking this morning....but just buy the morning dip...by Friday all losses will be gone just like last week...there is no way markets fall into the rest of week. That's just impossible ....
     
  246. Looks like you were right.
     
  247. what an opening, the volatility is back and its beautiful, hedged more against my short positions with more XIV, sold 1/2 position on Friday and bought 1/2 back in again under $40....only way to play this market......still watching 2064-2068 on the s$p, will see how bad it gets today, maybe they prop it up some time mid day which we all know is probably going to happen since thats been the way for over 6 years now...
     
  248. Well off the lows by lunch.
     
  249. Flat/up for the day by lunch!
     
  250. So much for that.....up up up and away....free money train choo choo $$$$$$
     
  251. FREEE money, as usual....dow was off 160 points now skyrocketing, only down 26, see how easy it is to make free money in this market, so glad I added XIV and ERX, I knew that dip was going to work as it always does and has for the last 6 years, it never fails, never ever ever ever, so glad I bought the dip, now I can wait for the triple digit rally back to 18100+ and sell for nice gains, thank you wall street for unlimited risk free gains....everything is skyrocketing whewwwww



    UPDATE, DOW OFF 17
     
  252. Welcome to the land of perfect, a land where markets never fall.
     
  253. YOU HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR BEING LONG.....IT ALWAYS ROARS RIGHT BACK UP.....SO EASY A CAVE MAN CAN DO IT.
     
  254. Now sideways for 5 hours....thanks for playing...have a nice day!
     
  255. Well off the lows crys CNBC.....Somethings never change.
     
  256. Disappointed...we are down -20bps which makes it a super bad day...

    But I took profits anyway. I BTFD too early today, but made $2k.
     
  257. Yawn...SPY -9bps...why all the excitement?
     
  258. almost there, a few more points and were good to go, triple digit rally here we come into the close....new highs by the end of the week. just buy the dip and hold
     
  259. At the highs of the session crys CNBC.....right on time for the lunch crowd.....
     
  260. Bought TSLA at the open -- you can't lose.
     
  261. If there is to be a breakout, I still see more downside before a push up.
     
  262. You could have posted it at 9:30AM instead of a hindsight call at 2:30PM.
     
  263. True but I don't really care to impress you.
     
  264. Careful with embarrassing yourself though.
     
  265. I think we all know stock index futures will rally tonight....free money for sure $$$$$
     
  266. Selling TSLA at open. 3% in 1 day is pretty good. Don't say I didn't say it in advance!
     
  267. All my profits where made overnight, nothing going on during the US session. This is the pattern as we near the summer doldrums. Some are saying increased volatility, maybe so. But I have seen this so many times before. All my sell orders were executed last night. Im holding a small long position at the moment, not expecting much movement today.
     
  268. Position
     
  269. You got me interested. What returns do you get typically?
     
  270. Are you OK? Haven't heard from you in more than 12 hours!
     
  271. It varies, I just keep my nose to the grindstone and follow my edge, YTD 30.97 % gain.
     
  272. Wow..nice! What percentage of equity do you risk in a single overnight trade?
     
  273. Well off the lows crys CNBC....RIGHT ON TIME FOR LUNCH! Same thing over and over....in the mornings it's rosy and at lunch it's rosy.....always remember that. They do not want to alarm the average citizen.
     
  274. Market wants to go down. with a few points up, selling pressure begins but I also see hesitation in selling. People are not convinced to buy but also watching each other to see how many want to rush to the exit door. Once it starts, it will get ugly.
     
  275. This is the second option expiration since your buy IWM put call. I am sure one day it will indeed crash and get ugly...
     
  276. What I see is option market makers pegging SPY to 210, since that limits their payout. It is quite mechanical, and there are no emotions involved. (i.e. "convinced", "watching", rush to exit", "ugly")
     
  277. Ok people you know the drill, get long stock index futures for the overnight ramp, tomorrow US session will be another sleeper.
     
  278. We are in the same spot from Tuesday night 2097
     
  279. Seriously worried about S2007S....should we call the cops?
     
  280. Looks like a higher open on wall street crys CBNC.....
     
  281. Yesterdays sell off like magic has been erased overnight on 1/10 the volume....if that's not magic what is.
     
  282. Sell the open and buy the close.
     
  283. It would appear someone got the economic data early....nah that's against the law.
     
  284. Watch the VIX, this should be interesting.
     
  285. Option expiration tomorrow, which is why I am taking today off. VIX is changing option series, so I wouldn't be too excited if I could predict VIX, because it is not directly tradable.
     
  286. Now sideways for 6 hours.Thanks for playing, take the rest of the day off. See you at the close. You know the drill.
     
  287. I just got tired of logging out and back in as S2007S...rest assured I am still taking profits on my levered long ETFs this AM.
     
  288. Remember they won't let it fall....We are going to breakout to the upside...100 point ES run to close out the second quarter. Position yourself for the easy money to be made...ZERO RISK BEING LONG.
     
  289. you seem to change your mind every 10 minutes
     
  290. Hows that?
     
  291. Please explain, I have been very clear about my position.
     
  292.  
  293. long DGAZ under $5.00, bought more....very volatile, natural gas has been surging, up over 20% in only a few weeks. So now we have energy prices up over 20% in the last month and retail sales were flat yesterday, so keep in mind that with energy prices surging its only going to take more away from consumer spending going forward.
     
  294. Long DUST around $11.50
     
  295. So sorry if you did not buy yesterday, or waited till the cash markets open. This will become more prevalent as we approach the summer doldrums.
     
  296. Just off the highs of the session crys CNBC to all the lunch goers.
     
  297. anyone notice the difference between 100-200+ point up days versus 100-200 point down days????

    on these 150 point up days the market just floats, stays plus 130-160 for hours....on down days where the market is down 150+ you can feel the volatility at every buy and sell you can feel the volatility that each passes each second, you can feel the pull and thrust of the markets, remember just a couple of days ago the dow was off 160 in the morning and managed to climb its way back erasing all of its losses. well here we are up 150 point since the opening almost 3 hours ago and the market has done absolutely nothing but stay put....

    thats the difference between 100-200 point up days versus 100-200 point down days...
    zero volatility on up days and a whole lot of volatility on down days...
     

  298. The only only only way to catch these rallies is to buy on the dips, you cannot buy the markets at the open on days like today, on days like today I sell any long positions I took on the dip...yesterday during the small rally I took 1/2 position off in XIV and today took a position off in ERX and added to DUST and DGAZ. With new historical highs ever so close though anyone long from earlier this week is better off holding since new highs should be here within days, Im thinking by Friday close or early next week the markets will be at new historical highs....
     
  299. Key index levels
    Major Indexes Year High (Intraday) Date of Most Recent Intraday High Record Closing High


    YEAR highs on the left INTRADAY....on the right RECORD HIGH CLOSINGS

    DJ 15 Utility Average 657.17 1/28/2015 652.11
    DJ 20 Transportation Average 9310.22 11/28/2014 9217.44
    DJ Industrial Average 18288.63 3/2/2015 18288.63
    NASDAQ Composite Index 5119.83 4/27/2015 5092.09
    Russell 2000 1278.63 4/15/2015 1275.35
    S&P 500 2125.92 4/27/2015 2117.69



    Transports still haven't closed at a record high for 2015...

    last high was November 2014....

    even today IYT is barely up....with a 150+ point rally IYT should be up at least 1-2%
     
  300. Just like last week, we are right back where we started. I can guarantee you, yes im telling you right here right now this PENNANT FORMATION is going to breakout to the upside.
     
  301. If the SP500 were down 0.85% the VIX would be up 10.00%. But it's only down 5.89%....amazing LIKE MAGIC!
     



  302. of course it is....everyone has been talking about the PENNANT formation for about a month or 2 now....

    new highs are coming today, I take back what I said earlier about new highs coming early next week, new highs either by the close today or the morning hours of tomorrow...

    ZERO RISK ALL REWARD ALL THE TIME!!!

    18288 is the HIGH, 18300+ in the next 24 hours....

    PROFIT FROM IT.. FREE MONEY TO BE MADE...
     
  303. No one is falling for the fed to raise rates in 2015....0.30% is where most see the fed funds rate by end of 2015....in a month or 3 that will be 0%....this shows how the fed has lost every single fucking ounce of credibility .....this market is now running on borrowed time....the fed will not raise rates for next few years...and once the recession comes any rate hike will be taken back immediately that's why I predict no rate hikes for at least 5 more years ....they can't move rates up at all without interrupting this 6 year old tired bull market......there will be great lessons to be learned after the next crisis is here...


    The longer U.S. central bankers wait to initiate their tightening cycle, the more traders push back their expectations for when borrowing costs will start rising. On Thursday, futures contracts were implying that traders saw the fed funds rate at about 0.3 percent rate by December. That’s the lowest estimate of the year, and about half the forecast for the overnight lending benchmark that the Fed gave in March

    The market is essentially calling the Fed’s bluff. Traders are betting that policy makers won’t be able to raise rates this year without disrupting stocks and bonds, something that they’d really rather not do. So either U.S. policy makers will have to risk another market-wide tantrum, or they’ll give in to traders who embrace the idea of these historically low borrowing costs sticking around for longer.“In the end, the Fed is more likely to ‘cave’ to the market as opposed to ‘fight it’ by hiking when the market does not have it priced in,” Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, said in an e-mail. The Fed still sees low rates “as beneficial and does not want to undermine all the work they have done over the past several years.”

    Hike Timing

    In the meantime, Fed members are amping up their rhetoric that yes, a rate hike is coming, yes, it’ll probably be this year, and no, it may not be an easy ride for markets.Liftoff “feels most probable somewhere in the late summer than the early summer, but early summer is not out of the question,” David Altig, research head at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in an interview in Madrid on Wednesday.A day earlier, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williamssaid the U.S. central bank could decide to begin raising interest rates at any policy meeting, and that he is in “wait and see mode” headed into the next gathering in June.The New York Fed’s William C. Dudley had some starker words for traders that same day: when central bankers make their move, they’ll usher in a “regime shift” that will stir markets. Dudley, who is vice chairman of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said the timing of a hike is uncertain.

    Data Disappointment

    While the U.S. economy is showing signs of recovery after more than six years of unprecedented Fed stimulus, some of the economic data keeps disappointing. One of the latest examples is retail sales that barely budged in April, confounding analyst projections for a small increase.As the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.4 percent from as high as 10 percent in 2009, workers still aren’t earning materially bigger paychecks or returning to their erstwhile spendthrift ways.While the global bond market has lost hundreds of billions of dollars in May, short-term debt yields haven’t changed much - - another sign investors don’t expect the Fed to end the stimulus party anytime soon. Yields on 2-year Treasuries have fallen to 0.55 percent from 0.57 percent on April 30.Fed members can keep warning traders of shocks that are soon to come, but a lot of folks just aren’t buying it.
     
  304. Nice 20 point range in the Dow for the last 3 hours.
     
  305. I doubt they will ever raise rates. They have shown time and time again. They just keep changing the metrics. Bernanke said once the employment rates falls below 6.00% they will start raising rates....Were now at 5.4%. I bet we fall under 5.00% and they still won't raise. They will point to retail sales or GDP...It's a circus.
     
  306. "THE RALLY IS JUST GETTING STARTED"
    thats what Ralph Acampora said today.....so the bull market thats already 6 years old and is up 200%+ is just getting started?

    Reminds me of 2007 all over again....




    Here's why you have to buy stocks: Acampora

    Amanda Diaz | @CNBCDiaz
    2 Hours Ago


    Stocks snapped back from a three-day losing streak on Thursday, with the Dow rising 1 percent and the S&P 500 closing at a record high. And while many market participants question how long stocks can maintain their momentum, one top technician says the rally is just getting started.

    "There are two ways of looking at the market, you can anticipate a move or react to it," technical analyst Ralph Acampora said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "I think people need to react more because so far there hasn't been a major correction."



    As of Thursday, the market hasn't seen a correction in 740 trading sessions, or since late 2011. But according to Acampora, head of technical analysis at Altaira, the broad market trend is still quite healthy. "Until you see the major moving averages broken, until you see the trends broken," there is no need to worry, he said. "We can stay in this range for a while and so far, the leading averages look just fine."



    Of the lull in volatility, Acampora said it doesn't bother him that the VIX remains low. "We've had the VIX somewhere between 17 and 10 since the correction in 2011," he said. "That's not a sign of complacency, that's a sign of strength." Traders often look to the VIX to gauge the level of fear in the market, as a spike in the VIX tends to correspond with a selloff in stocks.

    As far as where the market is heading, the so-called godfather of technical analysis sees another 7 to 8 percent upside in the S&P 500 by the end of the year. "I see the market going anywhere from 2,250 to 2,300," he said.

    In any event, to Acampora, the message is clear: "Don't fight the trend. This [market] looks very, very good."
     
  307. So today the markets are trading flat and this is after news that

    1. Economists cut forecast for economic growth in the 2nd qu and FULL YEAR, from 3% to 2.5%, a whole 1/2% yet the markets are trading at historical highs...

    2. Consumer sentiment misses by a huge margin, stocks still don't care

    3. Industrial output falls for 5 STRAIGHT MONTHS!!!!!! 5 Straight months and the markets are at historical highs....nothing, and I mean nothing can bring this market down, economic numbers are just missing left and right yet markets keep ignoring this fact, how can anyone take these numbers and spin them as good, I don't understand how this market is trading at historical highs as GDP figures keep on falling, I really think the next recession will only boost the dow to 20,000, there is nothing at all that can stop this market, this could be a 23 year bull market in the making without there ever being a correction of 10% or more, I don't know when or if reality will ever kick in, but when it does its going to be quite a picture to see, history will be written when that takes place and the true market finally shows itself......


    Economists slash 2015 growth forecasts: Philly Fed
    2 Hours AgoReuters



    Economists cut their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and full year, and trimmed expectations for U.S. labor market gains.

    Economists see the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the current quarter, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of 44 forecasters, released on Friday. In last quarter's survey, released in February, growth for this quarter was forecast at 3.0 percent.

    Read MoreConsumer sentiment posts big miss in May

    Third-quarter 2015 growth was forecast at 3.1 percent, up from an estimate of 2.8 percent in February's survey, though full-year growth for 2015 was forecast at 2.4 percent, down from the previous estimate of 3.2 percent.

    The pace of hiring was expected to decelerate in the current quarter compared with previous expectations, with an average rate of monthly nonfarm job growth seen around 195,300 versus a previous forecast of 233,800. For the third quarter, job growth is expected to average 223,300, a touch higher than the prior forecast of 222,000.

    Read MoreUS industrial output falls for 5th straight month

    Hiring should average 243,900 a month for all of 2015, compared with the prior full-year forecast of 252,500.

    The jobless rate was expected to be 5.4 percent at the end of the current quarter and 5.3 percent by the end of the third quarter. The February survey had forecast a rate of 5.5 percent by the end of the current quarter.

    The most recent official unemployment rate released by the government showed the jobless rate in April at 5.4 percent.
     
  308. Remember...Mondays are always up....starts Sunday evening with the stock index futures floating higher for the Monday morning new blasting " LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER OPEN ON WALLSTREET" and in keeping with tradition the VIX will gap up.

    Lets revisit this Monday morning and you can see how my 15 years of following the index futures can make you rich also....BUY THE CLOSE PEOPLE.....I CERTAINALY WILL
     
  309. Watch what happens in ES after the cash close. We have a possible bearish candle setup in the daily's . They will try and void the setup, so watch closely.
     
  310. Here they go trying to push it up into the close, glad im long.
     
  311. So dang easy making free money when you know what's going to happen..haha.
     
  312. Under normal circumstances this would be cause for alarm....trust me these are not normal circumstances. This is a market that has been taken over by the central bank and they are not going to let it fall.
     
  313. I switched to Heikin Ashi.
     
  314. I'm betting we get our usual VIX gap up on the Monday open
     
  315. No worries, blackrock says there is no bubble, move along there is nothing to worry about, no such thing as bubbles even if the s$p 500 PE was 22 or even 34....just keep buying the bull market and make risk free money

    No stock bubble yet—and here's why: BlackRock


    The stock market is expensive, but it's not in bubble territory, BlackRock's Russ Koesterich said Monday, with the Dow Jones industrial average just below its record close and the S&P 500 at a new high ahead of the open.

    The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is about 17.5 times, which Koesterich pointed out is a "bit above the average." But he said, "When you take into account … a low inflation environment and you've got a low [interest] rate environment, that's probably in the right vicinity. It's a bit stretched, but I don't think it's a bubble."

    Koesterich, BlackRock's global chief investment strategist, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that he believes expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike are being pushed back—agreeing with sliding predictions for September or even December for liftoff.

    Read MoreWhy stocks shouldn't fear the 'Mayan temple effect'

    Hopes were high for the economy heading into this year, so the softer first quarter numbers seem even worse, he said, but warned, "you're starting to get to a point where the data is soft enough [and] earnings are also likely to be weak that it becomes difficult to sustain these [stock] valuations when eventually the Fed is going to remove accommodation."
     
  316. Wow thats nearly a 6.00% gap up the cash markets opened down 0.19%
     
  317. Remember people, there is ZERO risk in being long. If it falls some Federal Reserve offical will be out talking up QE4. They will simply printing more free money and poor it into the stock market. They own the market and trust me they are not short.
     
  318. all indexes finally green on the day, remember any up closing today will be a record breaking close, the dow needs to close above 18,288 today which it will do without any problem, in fact I see it jumping above 18,300 by mid day and closing at a record high along with the s$p, so keep buying, mortgage the house, take a line of credit and take a cash advance against your credit cards and go long, with zero risk you will be making money left and right as the market will only continue to break record highs for months and years to come.....
     
  319. Time is 9:57 AM Monday. Market is flat and directionless. With bond selloff and yield increase, watch for over 100 drop in DOW by close.
     
  320. You know what time it is......"AS WE NEAR THE HIGHS OF THE SESSION"...... Yes it's lunch time make it pretty $$$$$$$
     
  321. Interesting
     
  322. They will get to that target with overnight gaps. The only way to ride this up is to get long and sit tight.
     
  323. Mondays... 9 out of ten are UP. Pretty good odds.
     
  324. I read some of your post's, you believe the market will fall. I can tell you this after 15 years, just go with the flow. It's easy to paddle with the flow of the current than fight the current.

    When I look at a monthly chart it scares me too. But I learned the hard way...DON'T FIGHT THE TREND.
     
  325. cnbc already talking about dow 20,000....zero risk in this market, today 18297 was touched, there it is, new record highs once again, this should continue into the end of 2015, with no interest rate hike coming in 2015 this news alone should push the dow up an easy 2000 points. DOW 20,000 by fall... no such thing as pullbacks, the fed has the markets back, no rate hikes and if there is a dip to say dow 17,000 or less get ready for QE 4 which should boost the dow back to new highs, so no worries, just sit back and continue to collect your risk free money....
     

  326. Im about to lighten up my short positions, right now I'm about 80-85% short, I think the trend is going to last for at least 3 more years...so I think Im going to lighten up my short positions to 50% and take off some short positions and move it all into long etfs, still will stay short but will reduce my short positions to 40-50%...I know the fed isnt raising rates and that will boost markets at least 5% by summer and a full 10% by end of 2015 taking the dow to 20,000....
     
  327. Truly a FREE money Monday $$$$$$$$ so dang easy a cave man can do it.
     
  328. 2,260 days old this bull market is....exceeding the 1974-1980 bull market....now the second longest in history....

    And over 1300 days without a 10% correction.......

    These are unbelievable numbers, every day is another day of history being made...again this is not a natural feat, its all fed created, its the central banks and the stimulus that have led to this being the second longest bull market in history...this should be on every front page of every newspaper and magazine, it should be announced every single day on the news that this is a record breaking bull market, why isnt this news making its way across the country, it seems hidden, we need more small investors to get in on this crazy fed stimulated market...there is tons of money to be made......just ignore how the last bull markets ended, this one will continue for another 92 years without it ever ending in a bear market...no such thing as a bear market anymore...


    At 2,260 days, the bull market that began in March 2009 this month exceeded the 1974-1980 rally as the second longest since 1956. While measures such as price-to-earnings ratios are holding just above historical averages, the bull market’s duration is sowing anxiety among professionals who watched the previous two end in catastrophe.
     
  329. I am wrong again. As I am wrong, the market get scarier. ALTR goes up $3 because of INTL rumor and then a few days later rumor dies and the stock goes down 50 cents and then the rumor comes again and the stock goes up another $3 and this keeps going on. Someone at the end will need to pay for this craziness.
     

  330. ha I noticed that as well the last 2 months these rumors have been going on for, I thought okay here is the same news we heard 2-3 times already how much is ALTR going to be up, I thought it would be trading up a 25 cents, nope up 6%%%%%, at the rate its moving it could be up near $100 if they announce every week that intel "might" buy them, this is old news already, why the stock is up over 6% is beyond me, if anything intel will be over paying for ALTR at this point since its been trading between $30-$40 for the last 4 years or so....its almost about to break out to new multi year highs just on this take over news, it has a $14 billion dollar market cap, it was $3 billion less before Intel announced it might buy them out...every time news of intel buying them out touches down ALTR adds on another 1/2 billion to 1 billion in market cap...I would wait for ALTR to drop below $20 and then make a bid for them, semis need a cool breather...
     
  331. WELL DID YOU LISTEN TO ME? If you did you should be smiling right now...I sure am.
     
  332. So much for that bearish setup hahah this is so predictable. And so easy to make free easy money.
     
  333. This is why they GAP the VIX up 5.00% on Mondays. Stock got to run up yet the Vix did not even fall. I have watched this for over a decade. Without the gap up it would be at 5 or some crazy low number. This would show up in the media. All markets especially the stock market is totally rigged. As long as you understand this fact you can operate and make vast sums of money from this knowledge.
     

  334. noticed the vix acting funny today....it should be trading under 10, how its still above 12 is beyond me...I would say that it should be around 7 give or take a point....
     
  335. Are you here to make money or point out the crookedness of the markets. The stock market has been and always will be full of lies and corruption.
     
  336. Volume just pathetic as markets continue to break new highs

    SPY volume today didn't even break 60,000,000, not even close to its average 3 month volume.....and of course they mentioned the shorts and how they weren't bothering to cover as new highs set in... I will guarantee you that the next huge one day jump in the markets will be based on shorts covering their positions, that seems to be the excuse they give every time the markets are at or near new highs...it has nothing to do with shorts covering their positions...right now no one has a clue why the markets are at record highs all while GDP forecasts have been cut, earnings forecast have dropped and all the while we have had 5 straight months of industrial production falling...on top of that but it also seems the word recession is being thrown around now...so with economic numbers looking worse and worse it only means new record highs for the markets day after day after day....Im wondering, if GDP figures keep coming down and markets keep rising, what will happen when they start raising GDP figures, is the dow going to jump through 20,000....the market is immune to any negative economic forecasts going forward...

    SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
    -NYSEArca  Watchlist
    213.07 [​IMG] 0.63(0.30%) 4:00PM EDT
    After Hours : 213.18 [​IMG] 0.11 (0.05%) 4:06PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
    Add to Portfolio
    Prev Close: 212.44
    Open: 212.24
    Bid: 213.19 x 5600
    Ask: 213.20 x 5800
    NAV¹: 212.47
    Net Assets²: 173.94B
    YTD Return (Mkt)²: 1.87%
    Day's Range: 212.16 - 213.40
    52wk Range: 181.92 - 213.40
    Volume: 57,977,101
    Avg Vol (3m): 106,385,000
    P/E (ttm)²: 18
    Yield (ttm)²: 1.89
     
  337. Economic data shows slow US economy => market goes up because Fed will delay raising rates.
    Companies warn about next Q revenue => market goes up because Fed will delay raising rates.
    Consumer sentiment is lower than expected => market goes up because Fed will delay raising rates.
    Chinese growth slows because of global slowdown => market goes up because Fed will delay raising rates.
    Companies report better than expected results => market goes up because of good news
    Unemployment rate goes down =>market goes up because of good news.
    Absolutely there is no news !! = > market goes up because of no news.
     
  338. I am making money. I short and at the same time sell PUTs so in long run I am making money but not day by day.
     
  339. tomorrow earnings from HD and WMT
    that should boost the indexes 1%
     
  340. I don't understand...how can you be short and make money if the market goes up? I thought you were long IWM puts?
     
  341. it was not my only position.
     
  342. He's obviously losing money, everything he posts about is an aggressive short. I thought he was smarter then complete idiots like S2007S. Perhaps he'll outline his position now and prove he's not entirely full of shit like S2007S that is also supposedly long and short all the time and posts about winning trades every day no matter what direction markets go.

    We need genuine people here, not bs artists. If you are calling a top, and calling out short trades to try to profit from that top, then own that don't try to suggest you can be profitable and bet on a huge market reversal.
     
  343. Oh look the stock index futures are rising, glad I'm long,we will more than likely rise slowly till the end of Q2. This is so easy making risk free money $$$$$
     
  344. Making money while you sleep $$$....looks like where back to the mega ramps at 2:00am cst. This had been occurring at around 4:00am cst. Two o'clock AM is the normal ramp up time.
     
  345. I must admit the volume on this pennant formation breakout is not inspiring. Under normal conditions this would certainly raise the warning flag to be on the lookout for a pattern failure.

    But ask yourself are these normal conditions.
     
  346. How high will the VIX gap up today. Closed at 12.73....
     
  347. Wow a 1.00% gap up, now if the market corrects a little it will be up 5.00%
     
  348. Well, credit where credit is due, well done man! I have closed my Nikkei short for zilch profit and went long DAX and ASX200.
     
  349. What a great buying opportunity this is.
     
  350. What's this....ecb accelerating their trillion dollar bond buying program....
    Wow this is just another fucking joke...it has to be...they are doing anything and everything possible to keep the world markets from collapsing ...it has to end sooner or later....the way central banks are pumping this market up is something the world has never witnessed before.....and to think this is all going to end on an up note...hahaha....


    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0O401E20150519?irpc=932


    By Michael ConnorNEW YORK | Tue May 19, 2015 11:27am EDTEmailFacebookTwitterBy Michael ConnorNEW YORK (Reuters) - Equities around the world jumped on Tuesday and the euro tumbled on signals the European Central Bank may accelerate its 1 trillion euro bond-buying program over the next two months.
     

  351. I will be shorting the Asian markets once they break out to new highs...last night the Shanghai ..Nikkei and hang sent all rallied. Once they are all past highs im going short...the entire market is over inflated especially the Shanghai ...with China doing everything to stimulate their economy shows you how desperate they are to keep gdp figures above 7%...once China slows the world is going into a long recession
     
  352. How about this action, 2 points range for 3 hours...... get use to it.
     
  353. Up up up and away, hope everyone bought that nice dip right after the open. Get your free money $$$$$
     
  354. we need some volatility, where has it gone....notice when the markets are making new record highs volatility literally dries right up....Im feeling some volatility in the next week or 2, this market is too boring right about now, only thing volatile today is oil and gold...
     

  355. there it is, dow up and s$p making another record high....Im still looking for the data on how many record highs the s$p and dow have put in for 2015 so far, it has to be about 4 or 5 times now....record after record..my short portfolio is actually in the green today thanks to ERY and DUST...and of course XIV because the VIX keeps hovering around historical lows!!!
     
  356. Welcome to the summer of LOVE...where everyday is an up day and stocks only rise like spring flowers.
     
  357. what happened to the rally, its fading, nasdaq red....energy getting smacked....wonder if the markets will keep at record highs into the close. if not there could be some selling pressure...wondering if I should sell my XIV and buy it back under $40.
     
  358. I am getting ready to go Long USD index.
     
  359. More action overnight then during the US session.Watch the close, we are setting up for another bearish candle in the daily.
     
  360. Working hard to void that candle
     
  361. Another DOJI.....I believe you look for bullish candle's in bull markets, and bearish candle's in bearish markets. This is a tough one, as we have run up pretty strong. I just feel these central banks will stop at nothing to keep pushing this market higher. So what bank or bank official will pop up overnight with some more heroin for this junkie market.
     
  362. Even Jack Bogle thinks wall street is a casino, and he even says stocks are high because of the fed games and low interest rates...


    There's an awful lot to worry about: Jack Bogle
    Michelle Fox | @MFoxCNBC

    There's an "awful lot" to worry about in the marketplace these days, but if investors avoid all the noise and focus on the long term, they can be successful, index mutual fund pioneer Jack Bogle said Tuesday.

    "This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," said Bogle, who founded The Vanguard Group in 1974 and launched the first retail index fund a couple of years later.

    In an interview with CNBC's "Power Lunch," Bogle said the general level of securities prices is high thanks to the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy.

    "That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

    However, while a sharp rise interest rates would "certainly" lead to a decline in stocks, the market has had declines "forever," Bogle said.

    "I've been through, I think, four 50 percent declines, at least three, and we get over them and march on," he noted. "It's a good idea to not pay too much attention to the stock market and think about the long-term productivity of business."

    Read MoreWhy Dow Theory isn't a red flag

    Therefore, Bogle advocates investing in the overall stock market—and not individual names—as well as putting some money in short-term or intermediate-term bonds.

    He called stocks "fairly reasonably valued" if you take their earnings yield into account.

    "You've got to keep investing in stocks and bonds, because I don't think the other alternatives—commodities, for example, or gold—have any long-term return prospects at all," he said.

    "Go into the casino, which is what Wall Street is today, bet on the entire stock market. And then get out of the casino and never show yourself there again."
     
  363. No concern on Heiken-Ashi.

    Screenshot_2015-05-19-21-24-07~2~2.jpg
     
  364. This is a bull market still, so are you saying doji are bearish and ignored, or that doji's are bullish?
     
  365. Ok everybody ready for the midnight rally.
     
  366. Nikkei and Shanghai only points away from new highs.....Shanghai surging once again. Up over 1.5%....imagine how quick its going to 10,000...probably by Christmas
     
  367. Make it look good as America starts a new day. Futures now positive.
     
  368. Looks like the open is going to be a push higher.
     
  369. Fed minutes today...they will be dovish and markets will surge 1/2%+++.....rally into the close along with historical highs for the Dow and S$P...keep buying.
     
  370. Nice consolidation over night....ready for blast off to the upside.
     
  371. I can pretty much guarantee you it's going up at the cash open.
     
  372. Nope I was wrong
     
  373. Just sold ERY on this early market dip at $18.30...small profit...wont touch it until it dips below $16.50 again....but im sure it rallies hard to $20+...that usually happens after I sell ERY in the upper teens
     
  374. Well off the lows crys CNBC
     
  375. Just can't keep this hot air balloon down. Just wants to rise and rise and rise.
     
  376. This really is the land of perfect, a land where stock indexes only go up. If you sell you loose, because it bounces right back.
     
  377. See that rally back into the green...looked like we were going for a serious dip of about 50 points but like magic were back in the green...wait till fed minutes come out markets are going to soar....dovish statement is coming today...get ready for it.
     
  378. Getting close to lunch....at the highs of the session coming up
     
  379. For sure, the fed statement will power it up away from the pennant....notice how where just hanging around near the highs. Get ready for fresh highs today. Momma dove won't let this balloon fall.
     
  380. I keep hearing about this ascending triangular formation being formed and that it signals a crazy crazy surge in the markets ...they said as early as this week its coming...so with that call I think Dow 18600 is coming next week and 20,000 by summer. I mean this is going to be the ultimate surge....just keep buying.
     
  381. Once it breaks out of the pennant its going to fucking surge...I mean surge...should look at least a 2-3% gain in next week....
    Yellen Is going to bow to wallstreet and give them the most dovish statement of 2015.
     
  382. Are you still net short?
     
  383. No offense, but that says it all compared to 1000 posts about the market going up.
     
  384. Fed Chair Speech
    Released On 5/22/2015 1:00:00 PM For 5/22/2015 1:00:00 PM
    Description
    Federal Reserve ChairJanet Yellenspeech on the economic outlook in Providence, Rhode Island.

    Highlights
    Check back for highlights of the speech.

    Legal Notices | ©Copyright 1998-2015 Econoday, Inc.
     
  385. Friday at 1pm before a 3 day weekend....hummm.....I'm certain she will send everyone off with a big rally.
     
  386. Markets are trading flat until the release of these fed minutes and then they surge....1 more hour to go...
     

  387. Yea...sold some ERY today...will buy again under $17

    But yes still net short
     
  388. WATCH THE TRANSPORTS!!!!!!!!
     
  389. 5 4 3 2 1 blast off $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
     
  390. Lift off in 3 minutes
    Dow off 30 NASDAQ up slightly

    Transport stocks...not cool
     
  391. Good job. I bought too but small.
     
  392. Of coarse there not going to raise rates in June are anytime in 2015, nor 2016. They won't raise rates for a long long time. They will just use QE to juice the markets, QE is better because it creates debt for as far as they eye can see. You could lay 1 dollar bills and it would reach Mars, Thats how much debt we have.
     
  393. DOJI=VOIDED ......Did anyone think that was going to mark a short term top hahahah ain't gonna happen....maybe after June. Get long and sit tight....you have nothing to worry about.
     
  394. So easy making free money...even a cave man can do it
     
  395. Wow...so predictable ..

    And wow no rate hike in June...go figure..how dovish...
    And guess what no rate hikes in September or December


    This bubble is gigantic ...bigger than any bubble in history ...keep those rates at 0% and keep that bubble economy growing...
     
  396. It is a bubble, but I can't justify biggest in history. What about 1929?
     
  397. Oh no all gains now gone....good grief Charlie Brown relax. Mother dove speaks Friday, any and all loses will be recovered....
     
  398. Which stock is the bubbliest of them all?

    SHAK - close to JACK valuation despite having only 66 chains vs 2.2k for JACK - saw this on Seeking Alpha

    NFLX - i view this as the AOL of the late 90's, barrier to entry into this market isnt that high and there are alternatives

    TSLA - without govt loans, this doesn't exist

    any and/or all Biotech companies??
     
  399. Evans says no rate hike until 2016....yess keep that bubble growing...why raise rates when you can keep them at 0%...I guarantee you that in 2016 he will say we can't raise rates now...inflation is still extremely low and gdp is still weak..rinse and repeat with this pathetic talk about rate hikes...do it already and get it done. Who cares if the market whines like a little bitch...


    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee was scheduled to release the minutes from its April meeting at 2 p.m. The statement from that month removed all calendar references to the timing of a short-term interest rate hike.Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in Munich on Wednesday that a rate hike is not likely to be appropriate until early 2016, Reuters reported.
     
  400. You are clueless. How old were you in 1999, 10 ??? A bubble is when tech IPOs go up 200-400% in the morning they occur. A bubble is when biotech normally trading at $5-$10 go over $100 in two days. Yes, these events really did occur.

    Saying US equity markets with the current P/E levels and a relatively flat year over year increase is the biggest bubble in history is in a word STUPID. But we know you are uneducated so it's no surprise. You repeat yourself like a little child every week and resort to big fonts when you don't get enough attention. It's childish.
     
  401. Buddy, STFU.

    Seriously, you are a child. Interest rates will be hiked when it's a good move for the economy. And it appears it will occur well before you think they will. but you'll whine every fed meeting anyways. Nobody predicted a rate hike now. The forecasts are this fall, you were told this many months ago.
     
  402. Take a look at the VIX futures the little drop in the index futures after cash close sent the VIX futures surging up 14.00% now thats a rigged market.
     
  403. Ready for blast off at 8:30 CST. Well positioned for the easy money to be made from this so easily predictable market. The easy money train is leaving the station choo choo $$$$$
     
  404. We are going to whipsaw and stay flat now for the rest of the day. Good night.
     
  405. Sit tight, it will go up.
     
  406. Stay long mother dove speaks tomorrow at 1:00pm guaranteed spike up.
     
  407. After the minutes yesterday its all clear to let some good data out. Remember everyone thinks no rate hike and we all know the fed does what wall street wants.
     
  408. After the data comes out at 9:00am cst, expect a big spike up...thats when I will unload some.
     
  409. T minus 3 2 1 blast off $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
     
  410. Houston we have a mis-fire...try again 5 4 3 2 1
     
  411. Finally geesh....free money for all who listen to me.
     
  412. FREE MONEY...REMEMBER TOMORROW MORE OF THE SAME.
     
  413. Volume today is pathetic, tomorrow will be even worse. Remember they always keep the stock index futures open for a bit on Monday. Sunday night will open at normal hours and the index futures will stay open till 12 noon Monday, check the exchange. One thing I do know is they like to push them up because its so easy.
     
  414. A taste of things to come. When the markets makes new highs on lower and lower volume. People see that and stay away. This leads to action like today, I can see 5-6 hours in a three point range coming. You best have a plan if you want to make a living at this people.
     
  415. As we near lunch remember.... "AT THE HIGHS OF THE SESSION"
     
  416. PRESTO! all negative looking candle's replaced with a super bullish candle, did you really think this market was going to fall haha thats to funny
     
  417. Wow lightest trading volume of the year as we make a new all time high....
     
  418. That just means more upside.
     
  419. S$$$$$$$$P closes at another record high
    10th closing high for 2015....
    Now just think what if the S$$$$$P made its 10th closing low for 2015???
    Im thinking QE4.....

    Oh and shake shack up 8% today because they are adding chicken to their menu...hahaha...this market is hilarious ...adding chicken to their menu warrants an 8% rally in the stock price...now worth over $3.25 billion...now lets see...66 Burger stores and over a $3 billion dollar market cap....haha.....yep there is no bubble...
     


  420. Anything that once was in no longer...nothing matters in this market anymore....

    I was just reading about that Dow transport theory...no longer a situation...everything is ignored in these markets...

    The fed and the central banks own this market...there will never again be a real market again...failure doesn't exist...economics 101 doesn't exist...supply and demand no longer exist...free markets will never exist again.....
     

  421. You fail to see the future crisis because you only believe that the past bubbles you reference have to exist today in order for there to be a collapse or bursting of the asset bubble...that's where you can't comprehend what's happening right now...you think an IPO has to jump 100%+ to consider it a bubble market haha....the bubble were in today is like no other bubble before..the crisis that's coming next will be one that never existed before. That's why you can't see it..its not about IPos doubling and biotechs surging.. ..that's the past...anyone who has an idea what the crisis is going to be is being laughed at...being called out as if they are wrong...they aren't wrong..everything that guys like Peter Schiff and Roubini are saying is right ...its just that you aren't seeing it because free markets don't exist...once the crisis comes you will be have a whole better understanding of what asset bubbles are but until then keep thanking central banks and the fed for this risk free market rally. Remember this rally will come to an end and when it does the fed wont save it...you know that saying...don't fight the fed...welll you will be able to because they have backed themselves into a corner with no way out....

    QE 4 is next...negative interest rates are coming...
     

  422. Good move for the economy hahah


    Really...isn't unemployment under 6%...earnings surging...housing booming...corporate profits doing awesome...stock buy backs at historical highs.....show me rates of at least 4% ....no fed can't do it because they know the economy is worthless ...can't even stand on its own...needs trillions of dollars to be propped up, rates at 0% and stimilus to keep it going....zero organic growth left and the fed knows....rates are going no where because the need to keep bowing to wallstreet
     
  423. If you'r bullish the wall of worry to climb from here looks like this: Geez I sure hope we don't get any positive economic numbers/indicators/currents that could threaten the charade, I mean, stock rally.
     
  424. Truly ramblings of an insane man. Get medical help, please.
     
  425. You seem to think that rates should be 4% because .. well, no real reason, your insane mind just thinks that is what interest rates should be. And you think the US economy is "worthless" ??? Lol, again, when will you come back to earth man and gain back your sanity ?

    "Zero organic growth" ??? Another one of your favorite phrases that means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

    Rinse and repeat, post with big fonts, foam at the mouth and yell about all your demons. Who cares man, your nuts !!!
     
  426. Shang"high" at a 7 year high....adding yet another 2% alone tonite....once this party stops 2% gains are going to be a gift if it takes 6 months to happen.....
    Any market can have 2% gains week over week and nothing is questioned but take that 2% gain and flip it to a constant 2% loss week over week and watch there be central bank interventions and rates cut to the extremes.....just keep in mind what happens next time a bear market forms in all global markets...there will be emergency meetings and central banks trying everything and anything to prop it back up.....that will be a beautiful situation
     
  427. Shang"high"now up nearly 3%%%%

    This is like NASDAQ 5000 in 1999-2000

    *NIKKEI20264.41 61.54 +0.30%*
    HSI27978.01 454.29 +1.65%*
    CHINA4657.60 128.17 +2.83%*
     
  428. Wall St.�s record century
    [​IMG] December 31, 1999: 6:33 p.m. ET Dow, Nasdaq, S&P cap phenomenal year, decade at all-time highs
    By Staff Writer Jill Bebar
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Wall Street finished the 1900s at an all-time peak Friday -- capping a century of unprecedented growth punctuated by two market crashes, the longest-running stock rally in history, and the emergence of technology companies as leaders for the 21stcentury.
    All three leading market indicators ended at record highs in an abbreviated New Year�s Eve session. The Dow Jones industrial average -- the only major indicator in existence 100 years ago -- rose 44.26 points to 11,497.12, surpassing the record set Wednesday.
    The Nasdaq composite index gained 32.44 to 4,069.31, also topping a mark set Wednesday, while the S&P 500 index rose 4.78 to 1,469.25, the third straight record close for the indicator.
    Advances outnumbered declines 2,150 to 922 on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading volume was the second lightest of 1999 -- just 377 million shares -- as many institutional traders had already closed their accounts for the year.
     
  429. He doesn't need medical help. He just needs to get long.

    Core inflation higher than expected, which has resulted in a 00.15% correction. My God, BUY!
     
  430. Don't worry the Federal Reserve will say the inflation is transitory. Remember lady dove speaks today at 1pm.....this sell off this morning of 0.11% may have them ready to unleash QE4
     
  431. Getting ready to BTFD. Will it be the 0945 bottom today? Or 1030 or 1100? Or maybe 1/3 each?
     
  432. Remember in the land of perfect there is never a down day. Any intraday dip is to bought with both hands.
     
  433. Well at least until 15:55
     
  434. The market has yellen again on their side....for once I wish there was a hawkish fed....for.the past 20+ years all we have had is the most dovish fed ever in recorded history of mankind...

    No matter what yellen will once again give wallstreet what it wants....I would love to see her say fuck it...were raising rates by
    1/2% today before the 3 day Hampton vacation takes place.....we need a wake up call....did you see the article by Mr. Stockman that said stocks and.bonds are going to collapse soon...saying how everything is totally DISTORTED ....he's another guy that people are saying wow this guy is a fool and has no idea what he means...meanwhile the fools are the ones oblivious to what's really happening. When the day comes and markets are in crisis mode don't be questioning what's going on....it will be wayyyy to late for that...

    Article on Mr Stockman saying markets are going to collapse soon..

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102699943
     
  435. WATCH THE TRANSPORTS!!!!!
     
  436. Ignore the transports.

    Well, ok, watch the transports. They've moved smartly off the lows in time for Yellen's speech. So what?
     
  437. v
    yeeeee-HAW!
     
  438. Mother dove just flew in with her dovish remarks no doubt.
     
  439. like it says in the title of this thread,

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
     
  440. NICE INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN IN YM. LOAD THE BOAT GUYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A RAMP JOB FOR SURE
     
  441. To be fair, you admitted that you sold stocks in 2013 and were in cash etc. So you are not much better, because you lost opportunity while the market kept going up. Just because you are frustrated doesn't give you the right to take it out on others.
     
  442. Your TA skills are lacking
     
  443. It's still a viable pattern.
     
  444. I guess will find out, if i am wrong, I will surly take responsibility.
     
  445. You are comparing the antics of S2007S to a strategy of sitting on cash for long term funds in this market ? Come on now, get real. I was 100% long the markets the majority of 2009-2013, at a time when this site was flooded with short calls, including from S2007S. I actually outperformed a straight buy and hold in that time period by swinging in and out on a seasonal and major resistance/support basis. The same strategy may have cost me some tail end opportunity, but if I'm right and interest rates are raised later this year, there will be plenty of new opportunities to buy again. If not, cash is fine, sitting on cash is probably the best "mistake" anyone can make with their long term money.

    If you can see any long term planning or even sensibility in S2007S's posts, or believe the similar conspiracy theories of some other posters on here, well, good luck with that. It's the constant spamming of those ideas and lunatic fringe posts that I have objected to.
     
  446. Unfuckingbelievable


    *NIKKEI 20413.77 149.36 +0.74%*
    HSI 27992.83 469.11 +1.70%*
    CHINA 4813.80 156.20 +3.35%*
    S&P/ASX 200 5721.50 56.80 +1.00%

    China and Japan up yet gain..at the rates these markets are moving 50-75% gains are coming for 2015....
    Shag"high" alone is doing on average 1-3% A DAYYYYYY in gains....

    No curbs or emergency meetings from central banks when markets are gaining 5-10% a month but if the opposite was happening China would now have rates near zero % with hundreds of billions in stimulus....

    This is the biggest bubble the word has ever witnessed....
    Anyone who thinks markets going up 2, 3, 4 and 5% a week is healthy is only kidding themselves ......im telling you now...this is the biggest global stock market bubble we have ever witnessed in our lives.....can't wait to see this bubble burst....




    NIKKEI 20413.77 149.36 +0.74%*
    HSI 27992.83 469.11 +1.70%*
    CHINA 4813.80 156.20 +3.35%
    *S&P/ASX 2005721.50 56.80 +1.00%
     
  447. *NIKKEI 20437.48 23.71 +0.12%*
    HSI28349.99 357.16 +1.28%*
    CHINA4903.51 89.72 +1.86%*
    S&P/ASX 2005773.40 51.90 +0.91%


    Get your unlimited free returns...1-3% compounded daily... zero risk all reward all the time.....

    SHANG'High" going to 5000 by Friday...
     
  448. SPX_Daily.png
     
  449. So, anybody here buying Sep S&P 500 puts? Pretty cheaply priced.

    Reminds me of Forrest Gump and the chocolate box: "My mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."

    About time to rock´n rolla!

    GT+GT
     
  450. I am shocked by the chart now. I think there is a quote wrong. Nasdaq down by 11%? Can anybody tell me what's happening?
     
  451. 捕获.PNG
     
  452. Looks like Friday's data was Naz and today's is NDX on the same chart.
    "?"
     
  453. BTFD SPY@211.04
     
  454. Screen Shot 2015-05-26 at 18.15.23.png
     
  455. just buy the dip, this is the 7,890th dip in the last 6 years that automatically makes you money no matter what the circumstances....so just but the dip today and sell by end of week, its free money in the bank....
     
  456. Yes i was wrong. Its flooding down in Texas. Im in Dallas and every lake is overflowing. For the past 6 years we have been in a serve drought...not anymore.
     
  457. Wrong -- there are only 1512 trading days in 6 years, so this is the 1513th BTFD. Thank you.
     
  458. just bought some ERX at $56.96....buy the dip, will sell above $59 this week.
     

  459. sold 1/2 DGAZ at $5.95....will wait for the next dip below $5 until then still holding 1/2 position and will probably buy UGAZ if it dips below $2.25
     
  460. Looks like it's all up from here....get long for the overnight ramp up.
     
  461. and there you go, last minute buying taking place, by tomorrow afternoon all will be forgotten, losses will be totally erased and new highs will be here by Friday!!!
     
  462. Don't be surprised if the news outlets start some rumor to buoy the markets.
     
  463. Overnight they will float the futures higher on 1/10 the volume of today, maybe even erase 2/3 of today's losses. This has been the pattern lately....lets see how it goes.
     
  464. Boy they sure started buying after the cash close, as usual watch the futures ramp up overnight....its almost GUARANTEED!
     
  465. Get you free money tonight $$$$$$
     
  466. Luckily, you had S2007S here to repeat his usual two posts. One, that there is a risk free trade long the next day. Two, that a gigantic crash is coming and it will be "bigger then ever" and he's net short. The fact that his ideas contradict themselves doesn't seem to phase him.

    On extremely lucky days, he'll throw in one of his long winded speeches. Sometimes even in big caps for the visually impaired. Usually, it goes something like this :

    blah blah blah ... "bernanke" ... blah blah blah ..."is a bubble, I'm telling you" ... "the fools won't see it coming" ... blah blah blah .. " bernanke" ... blah blah bah ... "fed propping up markets" ... blah blah blah ... "next crisis will be bigger then ever" ... blah blah blah ... .
     
  467. No need to worry, they won't let it fall, it's all rigged to the upside. So easy making free money is this planned market. Time to make things look pretty for the rise and shine America.
     
  468. Relax, by Friday we will be flat for the week.
     
  469. Always remember, the central planners must have some down days to make things look like a free market. I mean we can't look like communist China where everyday really is an up day. Who has ever heard of 1.00% a day gains for years. And there you go 1/2 yesterdays losses now gone. Won'y be long now till the entire loss is erased.
     
  470. This is so easy making free money $$$$$
     
  471. Time for " AT THE HIGHS OF THE SESSION" Right on cue for lunch. Same thing over and over and over. Such a rigged game. Im glad I understand how it's played. Makes is so easy to make FREE MONEY $$$$
     
  472. And there you have it 90% of losses recovered, all from a statement that Greece has an agreement. Which has been denied. I knew the media would do this haha, Im so smart.
     
  473. PRESTO!
     
  474. Time for another squirt higher all the lunch goers are waiting to her, at the highs of the session. Sitting at ES 2117.25 WATCH THE SQUIRT UP TO 2120.00
     
  475. READY SET GO
     
  476. So easy making free money in this planned market
     
  477. Just 10 more points and we are at new highs, haha did you really think they would let this market fall....don't be silly.
     
  478. Say what you want, I'm right and that's all that matters.
     
  479. Semis rallied hard today..this time on news broadcom might be bought out...seems the the last 15% upside in the semis came from rumors of ALTR being bought by Intel and now BRCM ....that's what caused the NASDAQ to spike around late afternoon ....
    SMH made another new high!!!


    Every pull back is just a buying opportunity until that one day it isn't....tomorrow should be interesting and with gdp figures out Friday no need to worry...sure the markets all rally to historical highs once again...
    Buy the dip....free money everyday all day all the time....
     
  480. By kind permission of Romik:
    [​IMG]
     
  481. Nope no asset bubble....hahaha....why would anyone at the boj ecb or the fed say there is a bubble.....they arent going to admit that....we all know there is....the entire world is in an asset bubble.





    http://www.marketpulse.com/20150527/bojs-kuroda-no-asset-bubble-or-stock-market-bubble/


    BOJ’s Kuroda: No ‘asset bubble or stock market bubble’

    Posted 9 hours

    Tokyo stocks are at fifteen-year highs and the yen at eight-year lows, but Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told CNBC he doesn’t think a bubble is brewing nor is he worried about where the yen is headed.“We don’t think there is any asset bubble or stock market bubble, but we will continue to monitor carefully,” BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda told CNBC in an exclusive interview. As for the Japanese currency, the “yen might appreciate. But I think the exchange rate, including the yen, should move in line with economic fundamentals,” he said.
     
  482. shangHIGH was down over 6.5% last night...to 4620...

    Hmmm. Thats just a buying opportunity ...probably jump back to new 52 week highs by next week...
    Was going to buy Yang this week once it broke 5000 but that didn't happen and today Yang is SURGING over 10%.
     
  483. Everyone is just too scared to BTFD right now, which is why it always works.
     
  484. Ok time to get it up off the lows for lunch time ...... sitting at 2113.00 right now ....im sure they will get it up from here.
     
  485. Just relax it will rise.
     
  486. Well off the lows crys CNBC haha, told ya.
     
  487. No such thing as a down market in the planned land of perfect.
     
  488. So easy making risk free money...it's so easy a cave man can do it.....Step right up get your free money $$$$$
     
  489. Down markets only last a day maybe two, then it's back to perfect....the land of perfect.
     
  490. Put on 2 trades...

    UGAZ around $2.25
    SOXL around $37.50

    Thinking of buying BIS but only a 1/4 of a position ...
    And some UWTI when oil drops back below $55
     
  491. Time for the squirt higher sitting at 2115.00 up from here
     
  492. Have no fear, it's not going down people. The end of Q2 is right around the corner, expect new highs to feed the masses.
     
  493. Sitting at 2119.25, took a while but it went up. This is so dang easy making all this FREE money $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
     
  494. Tomorrow we touch new highs, expect some good news "HYPE" from Greece, matters not if it's true. You know darn well someone over the weekend is going to come up with something to juice the index higher on Monday.....MONDAYS ARE ALWAYS UP $$$$$$$
     
  495. AS WE FINISH AT THE HIGHS OF THE SESSION.......WHAT DID YOU EXPECT? HAHA
     
  496. All losses erased, we closed at the highs of the session and ended flat. NEVER A DOWN DAY IN THE LAND OF PERFECT......GET YOUR FREE MONEY $$$$$$$
     
  497. might add to my long tomorrow depending on the reaction to the GDP number
     
  498. Gdp in 10 mins...sit back and relax as it doesn't matter what it is markets are ready for another liftoff ....also ALTR touching another 52 week high after Intel announcing its close to buying them....that's $50 billion worth of buyouts in the semiconductor sector this week alone...

    Nothing like a bunch of M&A at a historical market high......most of these companies were 50-70% cheaper to buy just 6 years ago....
     
  499. Ready for blast off, ES now at 2117.59, remember bad data is good.
     
  500. 2112.00 is support buy there.
     
  501. WATCH THE TRANSPORTS!!!!!
     
  502. I BTFD at 210.96
     
  503. Very safe no worries.
     
  504. TIME FOR....WELL OFF THE LOWS SO GET READY.
     
  505. ALL UP FROM HERE.....SITTING AT ES 2107.....EXPECT SOME NEWS RUMORS ARE SOMETHING OUT OF GREECE......JUST WATCH!
     
  506. Look at IWM -- the crash is to the upside...much faster to go up.
     
  507. BLOOMBERG JUST SAID WELL OFF THE LOWS....WHAAA HAAA.......SO PREDICTABLE.
     
  508. Just as I thought. So easy making free money,,no need to dump you longs, it always bounces back.
     
  509. LOL YES YES YES!
     
  510. and its RALLY TIME....market was off over 140 points now its almost 1/2 that...by the close everything should be BRIGHT GREEN....no worries on GDP because that number doesn't matter any more, an economy with zero growth and a market at historical highs, haha, yes, keep thinking thats reality....haha
     
  511. Did you really think they would let the markets fall....HELLO...THIS IS THE LAND OF PERFECT A LAND WHERE TWO DOWN DAYS IN NOT PERMITTED....SO EASY MAKING RISK FREE MONEY $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
     
  512. WOW well off the lows, can't have a nasty daily and weekly bar, so get it up, AMAZING ALL LOSSES JUST ABOUT GONE.
     
  513. Just 5 more SP 500 points and were back to even, that won't be a problem.
     
  514. Nice short:

    SPX_29May2015.png
     
  515. think about this. What do you think institutions know will happen at that upper trend line you marked? What do they know about who will enter there, the type of trader they are, where they will put their stop on average?

    I am not trolling you. I am just saying consider this. GL
     
  516. I should clarify, I'm not taking this position as it would skew my exposure. It does look like profit though.
     
  517. ok I understand. looks a good spot to trim a position.
     
  518. Second bounce off 2102.00 today. Lets see if it holds, don't think they can do another Greece headline today. Maybe some spin Sunday night.
     
  519. Here we go, mad rush into the close, hungry buyers.
     
  520. Greece to exit the EU.
     
  521. Link please
     
  522. I'm sure they will wait till the last 30 seconds to juice it up , maybe after cash close to. Right now at 2108.00
     
  523. I can almost guarantee you they will try and jam it up into the close....
     
  524. Sell off into the close, weekly divergence, when is this going to play out. The meddling central bank keeps propping everything up, after 6 years of easing they still won't leave the damm markets alone.
     
  525. looks like were heading to new lows on the day....

    that 2026 looks so good....if it were to break that there would be a free fall...there could be a possibility of October lows coming this summer.....do not rule that out for a second, it wouldn't take long before heavy selling would knock down the indexes to october lows....but I have seen the market look tired before only to push to new highs like we have seen over and over again these last 6 long years....

    Im surprised the markets held up this well after that GDP number, looks like were headed into a recession if these GDP numbers aren't propped up soon....
     
  526. Gold & silver appear to be basing, more QE?
     
  527. They gotta vary it up a little. BTFD is the new normal so now it might have to be BTFC. Drum up the bears with a real mini-crash then blow out chaser-shorts/window-jumpers even harder.

    If there's one thing that can be fairly safe doing here is simply shorting any highs seen - which is really nothing new anyway.
     
  528. As usual Monday's are up 90% of the time, futures just spiked up, don't forget the VIX will gap up to. Yes its all rigged to go up.
     
  529. "LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER OPEN ON WALL STREET"
     
  530. BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY 2105 ON JUNE ES
     
  531. Inverse H&S pattern in ES
     
  532. WELL OFF THE LOWS ALWAYS HAPPENS AS WE NEAR LUNCH....QUESTION IS WHERE IS THE LOW.
     
  533. Metals getting a bid.
     
  534. Im betting the low is in today at 2100.00, going long at 2104.00
     
  535. Time for well off the lows, sitting at 2104.00
     
  536. Right on time well off the lows can now be shouted.
     
  537. Well off the lows, right on time for east coast lunch.
     
  538. Good job. I see "rate rise tantrum" and "is the bear back?" threads. I wonder why -- we are near ATH. But I think that means the market will frustrate the bears at least for the next few days...
     
  539. Now we are at the highs of the session, right on schedule. In the morning when America wakes its " LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER OPEN ON WALL STREET".................at lunch it's ............................ " AT THE HIGHS OF THE SESSION"....." WELL OFF THE LOWS"............After the close if the market closed down, the news outlets spin positive stories......Basically the same thing everyday....Occasionally they need to throw in a curve ball, but on average it's blue skys and lollipops when the most people are viewing the tube.
     
  540. First, though, a preface. U.S. equities look expensive by a number of measures, Goldman notes. For a start, the typical stock in the S&P 500 trades at 18.1 times forward earnings, which ranks in the 98th percentile of historical valuation since 1976. The overall index has an aggregate forward price-to-earnings multiple of 17.3, which is a rise of 64 percent since September 2011, compared with the median expansion of 48 percent during nine previous price-to-earnings expansion phases.

    You can see the trend in the below chart from Goldman's note.


    [​IMG]



    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nown-economists-if-u-s-stocks-are-in-a-bubble
     
  541. So easy making free money in a market that never stay down.....it always bounces right back. So easy a cave man can do it. Today the checker at Kroger said buy stocks, they only go up.
     
  542. anyone else fed up that this market can't hold a rally into the close? when will these sellers go bankrupt
     
  543. Are you kidding? Most people are fed up with the continuous bubble being pumped.
     
  544. Now buy for the overnight ramp higher, in the morning it's "LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER OPEN ON WALLSTREET" IM BUYING AT 2111.00
     
  545. Hum this looks parabolic to me.
     
  546. Everyone knows China markets are going to crash in a spectacular manner - it's just a matter of when. It's pretty much 1999 over there.
     
  547. What bubble? Markets are barely positive for the year. You're mistaken if you think the U.S. stock market is in a bubble. Chinese stocks on the other hand...
     
  548. Wow up we go, offers being pulled and it rises like magic. It's like one person is controlling the index futures.
     
  549. Tomorrow morning headlines will read..."LOOK LIKE A POSITIVE OPEN ON WALL STREET"
    Pretty much the same thing over and over and over. Making free money is so easy.
     
  550. I am expecting a gap up open. I sure hope so.
     
  551. Do you really think they will let this fall..haha, thats so funny. Blast off at the open, it a good bet.
     
  552. 5 4 3 2 1 BLASTOFF $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
     
  553. Sit tight they won't let it fall far, and by lunch we will be ..... "WELL OFF THE LOWS"
     
  554. Please refrain from spamming the thread with one-liners that have no relation to the thread topic.

    Everybody falls into this at some point. But seriously, you will have more fun on a Yahoo Message Board or Stock Twits.
     
  555. We are almost green people, never a down day in the land of perfect.....a land where everyday is an up day......$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.....FREE MONEY TO THE BRAVE ONES WHO BUY THE DIPS.
     
  556. Yes my fair followers, we are ... "WELL OFF THE LOW" So easy a cave man can do it $$
     
  557. You really need to stop referring to "they" on here. It makes you seem like a conspiracy theory nut like S2007S. By "they", are you referring to people who choose to own companies ? And of course, that would have to be new owners, not the masses of mutual funds and insiders who own the same companies already.

    Tell me something, what did "they" do today that supposedly prevented prices from dropping ? What is so interesting about an essentially flat year on equity markets ?
     
  558. It's much easier to refer to the PPT as they..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets......you should not let little things like that bother you. Hey look were at the highs of the session, right on schedule, just in time for the east coast lunch crowd. Same thing over and over and over.
     
  559. Just like yesterday, at the high of the session right at noon on the East coast.
     
  560. It's all psychology and perception, Wall Street wants main street to stay long and keep buying. These big swings are contract roll over from the June contract to the September. For the next week expect similar price action.
     
  561. Here is a chart from yesterday, same time as today. We are at the same price at the same time as yesterday. Same price action to, we came from being down to rally to the high of the session right at lunch time.
     
  562. Go turn on the TV put it on a business channel, you will hear..."AT THE HIGH OF THE SESSION"
    or...."MARKET HAS RECOVERED FROM EARLIER LOSSES AND IT NOW TRADING HIGHER"

    Keeps people feeling good, keeps them from selling. Thats all it is, plain and simple.
     
  563. I hope the party never ends.
     
  564. Nice to see you calling out the bulls too...
     
  565. a drop at the open....a rally followed by another drop into the red...havent been near a computer all day but I was surprised to see just now that the markets are in the red, when I stepped away they were in true rally mode....all I know is that the ETF TNA that I own keeps going past where I bought only to fall down, I want to take profits but every time it moves higher I'm like ill hold out for another $1-$2 gain in the price, it falls right back down...touched $90.85 and now trading back around where I bought it....thats only one of the few longs I have to hedge against my short positions...
     
  566. MARGIN DEBT higher than 2000 and 2007.....but this time its different....

    FOOLS







    All this while margin debt is reaching deeper into unsettling territory. Never before have investors racked up this much debt to fund their stock purchases, Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives notes. Not in 2000 and not in 2007. That’s fine when the bulls are in charge, as they have been, but when the momentum fades and things start to turn, beware the margin calls and the flood of selling that can accompany them.

    [​IMG]
     
  567. Be careful with Doug Short, that's perma-bear economics that will keep you under underinvested in the next bull market.
     
  568. So expect more positive Greek spin overnight, America will wake up to another agreement and by lunch time we will be at the highs of the session AGAIN!
     
  569. I sure hope so. A parabolic rally to all-time-highs will be nice.
     
  570. Between greece and job reports and the ecb this could be a very volatile ending to the week, as for greece its been the same story over and over again, they have to pay a few hundred million this week thats due, wondering how that will end up...anyway greece news is old news, they will continue to get bailed out just like the others...
     
  571. I'm not adding anymore short positions until the general mood is "recovery" and "bullish." If the market shits itself between now and then then I'll probably end up stepping in early.

    IMO big money is or has been getting their sell orders filled.
     
  572. Greece problem explained for dummies:
    Basically it is years that every time that Greece loan is due they say ok we cannot pay you that 4 billion, give us 10 billion now and we will pay you that 4 billion and after 6 months they say we cannot pay you that 5 billion now, loan us 12 billion now and then we can pay you that 5 billion and this story goes on and on....

    My prediction is that the job report on Friday will be below 170k.
     
  573. 170k when expectations 227k? But will the market rally anyway?
     
  574. I am not sure how the market will react. As you said it should go up but not sure yet. I also see the inflation will pick up as the gas prices are back to as they were when oil was 100. I pay $3.90 for regular gas in California.
     
  575. Oh look the futures are up overnight...SHOCKER!
     
  576. LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER OPEN ON WALL STREET .... SHOUTS CNBC
     
  577. Sunshine and lollipops
     
  578. Huge jump in futures.....im thinking markets are excited about comments out of draghi and the ecb...remember the ecb is just as dovish as yellen and the rest of her friendly fed friends.....anytime they speak markets are 100% guaranteed to go up...just keep those bubbles inflated....
     
  579. I said it will go up one last time, i.e. parabolic swing, but nothing lasts forever...
     
  580. You forgot the rainbow sprinkles and sugar.
     
  581. If we have lots of good news and then a bad news cause the market to go up because it delays the rate hike. But if we have consecutive bad news , market should go down. So far we had mixed news.
     
  582. these intraday rallies haven't been lasting as of late....a sign of weakness
     
  583. My TNA is finally up huge...up 4% on it...looking to sell into the close...but knowing my luck I sell and it rallies another 3-5% by Friday on Greek news and jobs report...who knows...
     
  584. Bonds are falling yield is going up (Bond bubble). Gold is down because dollar is weakening so Gold is almost flat in Euro . Oil is down because oil exporting countries are increasing their outputs specially recent plan by Iran. Stocks are up because of stupid buyers :)
     
  585. Out of TNA moments ago at $91.62

    Will buy again under $87....maybe that comes this week...
     
  586. Never a down day in the land of perfect, where everyday is an up day. So easy making free money in this zero downside risk market.
     
  587. Im going for the easy money trade tonight, its so easy making free money when you know it's going to rally overnight.
     
  588. i'm in cash, let's see who is right this time
     
  589. market has tried to set new highs for 10 days now and failed alot more risk being long here than short worst case being short you can stop out harmlessly for a small loss, if your long and wrong your about to take a bath, basically your selling volatility with the vix at all time lows. The longer the market stays in a 25 point range the worse its going to be if it does eventually go down, there will be no surprises if it hits new highs, it will just be a slow smooth ride up.
     
  590. IMO every "rally" is a pump to fill those shorts.
     
  591. Unfortunately, you have no real plan and also own TZA. When TNA goes up you lose big on TZA.
    If markets stay fairly flat you lose on the inevitable degradation of triple etfs. I looked at a previous thread, two of you were trumpeting TZA at 10.85. It's now 9.59.

    A 4% gain on a triple etf is to put it mildly very small. It's not a "huge" return at all.
     
  592. Yes I still own TZA....have traded TNA twice...not worried about TZA...a simple 7-10% correction which is coming will take TZA straight to $14+

    Ill keep you updated....once the markets touch October 2014 lows TZA will gain huge

    Im down about $2.00 A share on it...not worried one bit.
     
  593. Thursday will be ugly. China down 4.5%. DOW will be down 300 points.
     
  594. Wait out and buy then
     
  595. SP500 index futures down 11.00 don't worry, by lunch we will be at the highs of the session and "WELL OFF THE LOWS"
     
  596. Don't worry they wont let it fall, this is a centrally planned market, free markets are gone. What we have now is sunshine and lollipops.
     
  597. There will not be a down day in the land of perfect.
     
  598. From September 9th, 2009 :

     
  599. Looks like a turn for the better, if we're able to stay above the lower TL

    Jun04_SPX500.png
     
  600. 2100 in ES seems to be support, buying at 2101.00
     
  601. All up from here now at 2106.00....well off the lows haha
     
  602. Don't worry it's never a down day in the land of perfect
     
  603. Thats it ,thanks for playing, now go home.
     
  604. You are a superstar!
     
  605. Round two, bought again down at 2104.00
     
  606. Stop?
     
  607. Bought more@ 2099.00 average cost 2101.25.....getting close to...WELL OFF THE LOWS TIME.....won't be long now ..... watch as we rise from the depths. As long at 2096 holds.
     

  608. if You read my comment from 2009 I clearly quote that the only thing that can keep the market PROPPED UP is MONOPOLY MONEY meaning QE 1, QE 2 QE 3 TARP etc etc etc and the rest of the bailouts they did and historical low interest rates which we have had and will continue to have for years to come.. ..if you really think of it, this is a bull market disguised as a bear market due to the fact the only reason it has rallied from its financial crisis lows to historical highs where it is today is because of worthless dollars being pumped into the system, QE and historical ZERO interest rates...TAKE ALLLLLLLLLLL of that away and the markets would still be sitting at 2009 lows........what you see is all a fairy tale, this entire global market is ready to collapse, which will be worse than the last financial crisis and the dot com bubble burst...you keep thinking this market is real, everything about it is fake, its all worthless trillions being pumped in to create the illusion that everything is better when all they did was create the next financial disaster, its coming soon, you just sit back and wait....I may be a year or 3 off but when it comes please don't be surprised.....
     
  609. No need to worry, it's all planned to rise off the lows just in time for lunch. Just watch you'll see. In about 45 minutes all the news channels will tell there viewers....STOCK HAVE RECOVERED...AND ARE WELL OFF THERE LOWS.....Sunshine and lollipops!
     
  610. GET READY NOW SITTING AT 2103.00....UP UP UP AND AWAY $$$$$ FREE MONEY $$$$
     
  611. Sit tight, relax, breath deep....they don't want the public to see the market sitting on it's low of the session.......that will send a negative message.
     
  612. i'm going long here 2100 ES SL 2098
     
  613. Re test that low of 2099.00, now lets lift off....if that lows breaks, add to your position. It will not close on the low of the day. At least I don't think it will.
     
  614. Your gonna make some coin $$$$
     
  615. Here is the low from Tuesday, that is the line in the sand. Im sitting tight till i see a violation of that low.
     
  616. Shh...Jamie Dimon is lurking the website to stop you out.
     
  617. Now at 2101.00, headed up from here, im certain about this. The low is in 2097.25. Buy em all.
     
  618. We are going up now....just hold on....it will rise...now @ 2101.75
     
  619. That type of thinking, even playing around, is unhealthy.
     
  620. 2101 is resistance now :/
     
  621. For what it is worth, I think we will pull a "hang seng" today, and so I am buying here. SPY@209.95
     
  622. The bulls are on the ropes now. :D

    [​IMG]
     
  623. IMHO selling pressure before end of lunch time higher probability of a rally into close.
     

  624. Ive been all in long the SPXS from 17.6 in my retirement accountd for a few days now, not sure we get a substantial pull back here or not but im pretty confident with the dollar rallying and dull summer markets, we aint hitting new highs for atleast a couple months. These last 5 days have been a major tipoff to the bulls five days in a row we tried to rally and it fizzled out, markets out of gas.
     
  625. and the sell off continues.. dow broke 18,000...so glad I got rid of my TNA yesterday before the close...now tomorrows job reports should be another interesting story. I believe we have another 150+ point drop or rise coming tomorrow after that report.
     

  626. Missed out big on that trade, never entered the trade but damn this stock has lifted off, had a 1 for 4 reverse split and now trading near $36 or pre split adjusted at $9 which is a HUGE 50% return, not cool I missed out, will wait for it to come back down under $20 before even considering a trade...
     
  627. I don't think it will close on it's lows, it's been a long time like April since we have close on the lows of the day.
     

  628. agree, because of that I dipped back in and bought TNA again at $88.75 moments ago, figure since I got lucky and sold it yesterday before this huge buying opportunity drop I would buy it again to hedge once again against my short positions.

    4 for 4 since trading TNA...tends to trade around a $5-$8 dollar trading range, the last time I bought it traded down to the low 80s but held on and sold yesterday at $91.62, just bought again and will sell those shares above $90+ tomorrow once that awesome job report comes out...and if it doesn't rally I have a nice amount of TZA sitting in my portfolio...

    6/3/2015 6/8/2015 TNA SOLD AT $91.6201
    4/29/2015 5/4/2015 TNA BOUGHT AT $88.9199
    4/28/2015 5/1/2015 TNA SOLD AT $90.9005
    4/27/2015 4/30/2015 TNA BOUGHT AT $89.96
    4/20/2015 4/23/2015 TNA SOLD AT $92.1401
    4/17/2015 4/22/2015 TNA BOUGHT AT $89.8899
    2/9/2015 2/12/2015 TNA SOLD AT $80.90
    2/9/2015 2/12/2015 TNA BOUGHT AT $80.1899
     
  629. ES now at 2097.00, it is literately impossible that we close anywhere near the lows. You know as sure as Im sitting here typing they will jam the index futures higher into the close, no way do we close near the lows, it's impossible.
     
  630. Well IBB well off lows...Hang Seng chart from last night repeated.
     
  631. Bearish, yet oversold now.
     
  632. Soon as the cash market closed the index futures squirted higher. You know its going to rally tonight, half of today's losses will be eased overnight on 1/10 the volume. Thats been the pattern, lets see if it holds.
     
  633. Its like a switch was flipped all the selling stopped, now the offers are thin and being lifted, and its rising like a feather. Tonight the offers will be pulled and it will rise up with one lots tapping the offer.
     
  634. today was either the low for june at 2091 or next stop is 2078

    waiting to see how it unfolds

    long biotech with a tight stop loss
     
  635. Well that worked. Getting out now.
     
  636. Who thinks the stock index futures will rise overnight....this I can say with 100% confidence,, YES IT WILL RISE TONIGHT. ES Just opened at 2099.00 up from the intra day low of 2092.00. It's hard to go long with the jobs report tomorrow, but this is how you make money doing what everyone won't. Most amateurs are sidelined. Don't be afraid, it's ok now buy.
     
  637. You are still living in a massive dream world. Your whole take on what dollars are, what markets are, and the impact of QE on markets is ridiculous. 6 years after you posted that horrible analysis of where markets were going, fully aware of the QE program at the time, you haven't learned a thing at all, still forecasting massive crashes despite huge corporate profits.

    You really should stop telling everyone how surprised they will be about the future when we have a working example of how 2009-2015 has surprised you more then anyone on here. You couldn't have been more wrong, and the excuses and chatter suggests you learned nothing. Stop telling me and others how surprised we will be, we understand markets better then you do and make better forecasts. In 2009, when you were still selling your short indexes idea, I said go long the bull market for at least 4-5 years.

    I don't how many more years you'll be spending talking about the next big crash, bigger then all the rest, taking the S&P lower then 2008-2009 lows, etc etc. Most people who were spouting that crap in 2009 have decided there are aspects of world finances they don't comprehend and stop posting grandiose predictions of doom and gloom.
     
  638. I don't study overnight markets, but the risk of an opening bell correction at some point soon is much larger then normal these days. Greece debt is due July 20th. Summer months are often not kind to overall markets. Guess we'll see, I just don't think market direction is clear cut at this point.
     
  639. I do agree with much of what you say, but it is always easy to find fault with others. Do you care to share your positioning as well?
     
  640. I take it you got killed here?
     
  641. Holding my ES shorts from 2116.25 and long VXM5 from 14.6.
     
  642. [​IMG]
     
  643. Ohhhh and guess what...
    Greece delays another payment ...

    Just like I said over and over again...failure is rewarded .....its just like here in the US...every single damn time the debt ceiling is reached they raise it another few trillion....FAILURE IS REWARDED in this new worthless economy...no such thing as failure as all and any central banks will continue to bail out ...pump up... create worthless money out of thin air to keep anything and everything from collapsing ...Greece has been given tooooo many chances....enough is enough ....for once justttt once can we please let the free markets do what they are meant to do...enough of the interventions....let failure run its course for once as this entire global market needs a real fucking wake up call....



    Greece delays IMF payment, PM to brief angry parliament


    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsipras-sees-greek-deal-differences-021234282.html


    (Reuters) - Greece delayed a key debt payment to the International Monetary Fund due on Friday as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, facing fury among his leftist supporters, demanded changes to tough terms from international creditors for aid to stave off default.The IMF said Athens planned to bundle four payments due in June into a single 1.6 billion euro (£1.16 billion) lump sum which is now due on June 30.It was the first time in five years of crisis that Greece has postponed a repayment on its 240 billion euro bailouts from euro zone governments and the IMF, even though Tsipras said earlier this week that Athens had the money and would make the payment.The delay came as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said talks on a cash-for-reforms deal were still far from reaching an agreement.In a sign of accelerating efforts to bridge the remaining differences, Tsipras, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande spoke late on Thursday evening via conference call, according to a Greek government official.Tsipras told the two leaders that the lenders' proposal could not be a basis for a deal because it was not taking into account the progress made in talks in Brussels over the past months, the official said adding that there was optimism that a deal could be reached soon.Tsipras, elected in January on a promise to end austerity, returned from late night talks with EU officials in Brussels to face an outcry over conditions that would breach the "red lines" his Syriza party has declared.He told ministers the government could not accept "extreme proposals" and said the creditors should understand that the Greek people had suffered enough and they "have to stop playing games at its expense", a Greek official said."They have not made any step back, regardless of the convergence reached during these four months on reforms that the Greek side included in its proposals but the lenders draft proposal did not," the official said on condition of anonymity.Tsipras is due to brief parliament on the negotiations from 1600 London time on Friday.Earlier the novice prime minister left the talks with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the chairman of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem saying a deal with lenders was "within sight" and that Athens would make a 300 million euro payment to the IMF on Friday. His tone appeared to harden after he ran into a backlash in Athens.LARGE GAPSEuropean officials continued to voice optimism that an agreement could be clinched in the coming days, but they acknowledged that large gaps remained to be bridged and said they expected Greek counter-proposals.Tsipras rejected pension cuts and a tax rise on electricity that he said the lenders were demanding along with other conditions to win the release frozen loans and avert a default that could hit euro zone and world markets.Sources familiar with the creditors' five-page plan said it also asked Athens to commit to selling off state assets and maintaining unpopular labour reforms, demands that would cross the party's declared red lines.
     
  644. Yup
     
  645. We live in a central planned market.
     
  646. Oh I get it, no matter what the numbers, we have Dudley do right the super dove from the NY fed speaks today. You no darn well he will bend over.
     
  647. 20 mins job report....looking for 225,000

    Would love to see a number 100,000 different than what they are looking for..

    But im sure the number will be fine for a few reasons

    Oil prices have stabilized and have gone higher which means less job cuts and probably more hiring in that sector

    Its spring time and all beaches and tourist spots are open...everyone is grabbing at least a part time job on that end

    And lastly they can spin these numbers any which way....
    As long as there is no wage inflation the fed will not have to worry about raising rates in 2015 ....
    Im not going to bother and predict since 89% of the time this number is completely off...
     


  648. You have outflows falling off a cliff but a steady climb in the S$P....how is this possible ...does any brilliant mind want to answer this....how could a chart like that go unnoticed ....something is propping this market up...wonder who or what it could be...hmmmmmn
     
  649. So do they feed us sunshine and lollipops today. I at least hope they give us a spoon full of sugar to help the medicine go down.
     
  650. Closed some euro session NQ shorts for about 130 ticks, still have the ES shorts and VIX longs. We shall see; the market is 99% BS anyway.
     
  651. Index futures, the fed uses the index futures to manipulate the markets. They can't buy individual companies, they would be in serious political trouble if they did that.
     
  652. Im pretty certain they will l juice the markets higher, it's Friday.
     
  653. They won't let it fall that far, some fed head will come out jaw bone it back up.
     
  654. 280,000 jobs for may....225,000 was estimate

    Sit back and collect free money....now why are interest rates at 0% with historical low job numbers...hmmmmmm
     
  655. SUNSHINE AND LOLLIPOPS...THE SKYS ARE SO BLUE....THE FUTURES SO BRIGHT I HAVE TO WEAR SHADES.