I agree. I just wanted to give a small punch to someone who feels is always right and cannot tolerate any one else comments. My 200 point drop should be supported with a 200 page document but his 17865 support which is doomed to be broken is a golden wise rule.
Gee ya think the stock index futures will rise tonight...I feel almost certain they will, long 15 @ 2095.00
All of us have a feeling and that is respected but why you went long ES? You were just trading DOW mini future and after some successful trades you were stopped out (that is my understanding). Now switching to ES will not change the equations. Both are related. I think that tomorrow we might will see 17750 in DOW future and as a result ES will go to 2087 if not lower. There will be no final news on Greece tomorrow one way or the other and more people are switching to cash. Ichan selling NFLX and news similar to it have big impact in the market to push it into sell side.
I own TZA and trade TNA ONLY when its trading under $88 ...its been in such a tight trading range the last 3-5 months that up until last week when it broke to new highs that it was easy to make money on that trade but I haven't touched TNA since I sold it at $91 ....now I have to say yesterday and today again TNA has held up extremely well despite the 2 days the market has sold off which really isn't cool because TZA has certainly underperformed during this sell off the last 2 days... I thought it would be sitting pretty above 9.50 but nope....it seems to really get knocked down on say a 15 point rise in the Nasdaq....NASDAQ off 10 points today and TZA flat...if NASDAQ was up 10 I could guarantee it TZA would be off around .10-.15 cents a share.....will see what happens....I think we need the NASDAQ to.break 5000 in order to see TZA back near 9.75-10 area....plus I really want to start trading TNA again in the $82-$88 price range....
As for TZA going to 15...the NASDAQ would need to sell off at least down to the 4200-4400 range.....a $12 price would mean NASDAQ 4600-4700 range...a full blown 20%+ bear market correction would put TZA at $18-$20 I could be off a bit on that range prediction but I think that's about where I would place TZA with those NASDAQ ranges....what for you think?
Actually I have been trading TZA from when it was 16 before 1:4 split so it means TZA at $64 !!!. I had a plan to try the theory of shorting TZA and TNZ with same dollar rate and then adjust the position if one leg goes up. I could do one million dollar of each leg with a little money since one side is hedged by the other leg. In long term since both are based on future rollover, you will make money (most probably). My positions are life time positions. I don't get out of a position. I had ADI and MCD positions for over 3 years. I adjust my position by playing options. For example on GLD, I am long weekly PUT 112.5 so if I get assigned the shares tomorrow, next week I will sell covered call. If I feel in danger, I will sell Call 112 and if I feel good, I will sell 112.5 or 113 or even higher calls or just get rid of the shares with profit on Monday. I remember when WIND was not bought by INTC, I used to trade 10% to 25% of its daily volume. I had 4 friends that were trading that stock with me. I could manipulate that stock well.
Many believe that even if Russel 2000 loses 50% of its value , it is still super overvalued. The fact that it has not happened yet does not remove the reality. You are right about the range. I always had a problem finding a mutual fund that had 10% gain in the last 10 years. That shows that you cannot find a mutual fund holding 100% gain in 10 years. You can find individual stocks that go up 5000% in 5 years but not an index. It shows that shoes will fall off one day and I don't want to cry that day when everyone does and asks why market dropped or crashed or ... The bad thing about the future crash is that even Fed wont be able to do anything. Cannot reduce the rates.