china data missed and futures gapped down i think this may actually be a bear market, china isn't reversing trend any time soon
Futures tumbling again tonite on weak PMI numbers out of China.... But no worries they should turn around by early morning...
I kinda thought ES might have moved down 50 handles by the close of the US session so that they could bounce it by this morning US session. But it closed down only 180 on the Dow (I show Dow here because its a meter of market psychology) and that suggested to me it would not bounce and continue down...wasn't really a vigorous enough sell-off to warrant traders coming in and taking the other side. So the psychology suggested another approx 150 down on the Dow today.
The real problem here is that there has been chatter for days now during the overnight sessions that China is still heavily propping their stock market and heavily controlling currency and economic data news. So its a guessing game as to how bad it is over there (think massive uncertainty). It is well known that China foreign reserves has dropped precipitously since this Summer and that China are selling US treasuries in order to provide those US dollar reserves. And then you have XI Jinping in the US now taking pure fantasy and misinformation openly in front of crowds here.
one thing i noticed was that they ran crude way back up to positive into the Chicago close yesterday and that would certainly offer a reason for the /es to bounce into positive this am in NY. also a decouple US from Europe. USD get strong which means euro lower against the dollar making exports to US cheaper. Dax bouncing nicely throughout the session on this dynamic. VW still down another 8%
noddyboy "I did just that but I think it will sell off after the open tomorrow." S2007S "Just go long before the close for free money tomorrow" Both sirs are looking very correct here. Looking very much like a bounce and green into the NY open (could be up by 1% by then) but noddyboy may have gotten closer as the timing suggests (we started moving up pretty early in london session and moving up since) that by the time NY opens it might be ready for a trend back downward. Looks like selling into any bounce will be the order of the day in NY but who knows what msm bullish tales they have to tell.