Every trade consists of two traders guessing at the direction of the market. One of them has to be wrong.
Not necessarily. Hedging/spreading/etc. Besides the fact one large fund can buy up 100's of smaller traders offering. 1 vs 100 is not 1 to 1. And 1000's of other variations.
Absolutely. The idea that the market SHOULD be doing this or that (despite clear evidence of the contrary) is what causes traders to lose a fortune.
You have no idea how and why commercials hedge or institutional investors run a relative value portfolio, I take it?
I smell a blow off top nearing - the breadth keeps narrowing & we have been stuck in rotations from the Russel to the NDX100, then visa versa. Not a very healthy market when you look under the hood. The Fed/central banks are causing a big distortion - they are the irrational exuberance.
Something funky has been going on between the DOW and NASD as well. One will underperform the other, then next day they shift momo. I blame Canada (and Walmart).