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  1. Long GBPUSD, position trade.

  2. you trading this on technicals or following the news?

    curious to hear what others think of the GBP chart here as well
  3. Technicals.
  4. Cool, looks like higher lows in the recent range and a 200dma that is waiting to be tagged at 1.2680 in the near term. This is all interesting given how bearish the press (and large speculators) continue to be on Brexit
  5. I looking at the weekly, treble bottom kinda scenario.
  6. Any chance this goes to parity with USD?

    Not too long ago people were saying this could go to parity. Yet it's stayed in the 1.2-1.25 range
  7. No way of knowing this. Of course if US interest rates keep rising and UK staying put, then you could be right. I just trade technicals.
  8. Expansion cycle is near.
  9. Screenshot_20170418-123035.png
  10. Looks spot on to me, gotta stay with it now.

  11. Next move is 1.30 on Macron win.
  12. Next IMHO is 1.35 test
  13. Book perfect so far. Screenshot_20170505-202856.png
  14. Looking good, few articles out from analysts suggesting GBP vs USD & EUR should tumble any time now. Hope not.

  15. I don't know, GBP/USD at least it looks very, very bullish to me right now.
  16. I think eurusd has appreciated so much last week. Time to depreciate. Since GBP has high correlation with eur, GBP will depreciate too?
  17. So far there is no signal that either one will start depreciating. It's possible, but we might see another rally first.
  18. So far no definitive rejection of upper levels on weekly time frame, therefore best to continue holding.
  19. True. Also, on the monthly time frame there are multiple candlesticks signalling for a move to the upside, and that move has just begun.
  20. Let's have another push up GBP!
  21. downtrend still intact though, it is going to have to chop through serious wood to break 1.35
  22. I am backing treble bottom, whether trend will or will not change can only be a 50/50 shot. Bottom formations that do work can provide a trader with a huge reward vs risk (I was bit late, as didn't spot it in time), there will always be failures & there will be successes.
  23. 50% retracement targets taken from various ranges (Hi/Lo). I only bother looking at 50% retracement zones. 1.35 current 50% retracement zone confluence with 2008 reaction Lo, IMO that is the primary target at the moment. I am gunning for 1.4 if I see rejections of 1.35 I may have to pull the trigger prior to 1.4 is reached.

    Screen Shot 2017-05-24 at 10.18.43.png
  24. At this point I don't think we can say anything for certain before the results of the general election in the UK. The pair is very undecided.
  25. Election will be won by the Conservatives, there just isn't any solid opposition this time.
  26. The other main reason boils down to USD, is it just a retracement or will USD continue falling.
  27. And that depends on the political situation in the States, which has been quite unpredictable lately.
  28. As well as interest rate & overall state of economy, which according to stock markets is very very healthy.
  29. True.
    Either way, for now the pair is bearish. I think it will likely continue falling to 1.2700 - 1.2680.
  30. Nah, major forces are waiting for the results on elections. This will definitely be the trigger. But I think some of long will be unwound 1-2 days before the day of the event.
  31. Good point.
    Frankly, the closer the election comes, the less willing I am to open new positions on this pair.
  32. Nice thread... real and only serious thread on FX. I will observe how the election will affect the currency. It'll be interesting to observe because this is just general election
  33. It might be just a general election, but still, it was called because Theresa May wants a larger support from the Parliament for her Brexit plans. If she doesn't get it it will have long-term repercussions, so these elections might end up having a much bigger impact than usual.
  34. Dollar slump hides the weakness on Pound as we see that GBPUSD is stable, while it slides on other crosses. May's party lead is only 1% ahead of Labour guys, her gains of power in parliament may be petty or she can even lose.

    Pound is in touch and go situation I would strongly recommend short it
  35. I live in UK & I don't see how Conservatives could lose this election, purely based on weak opposition. I'll stick a quid on Conservatives winning the vote.
  36. Weekly chart, still looks cool for upside continuation. Treble bottom on the weekly time frame is a strong indication of sustained upside my guesstimate is range expansion of around 2000 pips from lows. Sometimes we can get distracted by the noise of lower time frames, this one looks solid to me.

  37. Fireworx time, it's election day!
  38. FWIW I've found very similar formation (price action & extremely slow MACD) in most other major GBP pairs, I sense GBP is basing, personal bias aside, that's the classic setup for a counter trend move on a weekly chart. Is it a trap? Time will tell. Gotta speculate to accumulate.
  39. Is anyone doing longer moves with GBP/USD? I see a lot of short term plays. Like JSSPMKs graph looks like he is doing intraday moves.

    Does anyone predict any serious moves as a result of the elction? Or will it fizzle out regardless?

    @JSSPMK are you trading the actual currency, a forex CFD, or a FOP?
  40. Not intraday at all. Trade is based on weekly time frame. It's a spread bet.

    IMO bound to be fireworx as an initial reaction to the election, but as I expect an easy win for the Conservatives upside ought to resume shortly afterwards.
  41. So you are doing Forex CFD, not the physical currency.

    You think the GBP/USD rise post-election due to Tory win?
    Are you a Tory?
  42. Not a Tory, more like a realist, I don't see Labour winning - the only actual opposition.

    I believe Tory winning will just contribute to further strengthening of GBP. I'm not calling for trend reversal, my target is based on just a bounce within the bear phase.
  43. My forecast:

    Conservatives 358
    Labour 212
    Lib Dems 12
    SNP 46

    Majority of 66 seats.

  44. Here's the fireworx.
  45. And we have another hung parliament folks.
  46. #bullflag

  47. BoE is set before the hard choice - keep QE and withstand rising inflation pressures or start hiking the rate curbing inflation but hampering economic growth. I think they will soon start to remove accommodation and its time to bet long on the currency
  48. QE is here to stay IMHO. No idea regarding IR.
  49. Price breakout.

  50. I think the pair may retrace back to 1.2850. I have opened a short position.
  51. So kudos on getting your target, now I want to get mine. Go GBP!

  52. Tons of upside here. Plenty of traders on the wrong side and adding. If I remember correctly Soros even tipped his hand that he was short so i'd expect this to continue for a few weeks if not more given the climate we're in.

    Went long very early this morning and sold some and took some profits. Now i've added back another chunk of the position just now given how well it's held up here.
  53. Next week week GBP/USD will probably continue rallying toward 1.3200. I already have a long position.
  54. Lame reaction to pessimistic news from BOE, so we continue upwards IMO

    Screen Shot 2017-08-03 at 17.30.47.png

    Screen Shot 2017-08-03 at 17.28.21.png
  55. Big drop on the GBP/USD after the news today. It was to be expected, I suppose.
  56. IMO it's not a big drop considering the news.
  57. Next target is 1.29 big recovery is expected on US Dollar after upbeat NFP.
  58. That's very likely. I already have shorts.
  59. GBP/USD is at the support at 1.2875 which is the MA89 indicator on the D1 time frame. I think that a possible breakout next week could lead to a further drop towards 1.2700.
  60. GBPUSD is likely to continue rallying next week, considering the spinning top bar that has formed on the weekly time-frame at the support at 1.2770.
  61. [​IMG]
    GBP/USD rallied sharply this week and it reached a high at 1.3200. Since the pair is so bearish, I think the move to the upside will reach the last high at 1.3266 and if it breaks out above it will keep climbing to 1.3310, which is the MA89 on the W1 time frame.
  62. Holding long Gbp

  63. GBP/USD broke out above the resistance at 1.3300 which is the MA89 indicator on the W1 time frame. After such a breakout the rally will most likely accelerate, I think next target will be around 1.3450.
  64. Yes!
  65. GBP/USD rallied hard after the BoE news on Friday. It broke out above 1.3500 and continued climbing. I wouldn't be surprised if the pair eventually reached 1.3700.
  66. FOMC will be announcing the US Federal Funds rate this week, so expect a lot of volatility on all USD-related pairs, GBP/USD included.
  67. GBP/USD rebounded from 1.3340 despite breaking out below the support at 1.3375, which is the MA89 indicator on the H4 time frame. I think the pair will retrace back to 1.3450 - 1.3470.
  68. GBP/USD bounced off from 1.3260 and is at the support at 1.3115. I think that if there's a breakout it could drop to 1.3070 again.
  69. GBP.USD - In for a squeeze up to 1.34.
  70. GBP/USD reached 1.3266, surpassing 1.3250. The pair remains bullish and it will likely continue climbing toward the next high at 1.3335.
  71. Upside on what? BoE rate hike? Its a fact. Now the turn for Brexit it should weigh on the currency with all its perils, political discords, failed talks and agreements. Independence gonna be hard landing for UK, just yet to manifest on people and economy ;)
  72. Well, it is rallying again for now. It climbed to 1.3280 and even rallied above that to 1.3320, although it still hasn't tested the last high at 1.3337. A breakout above that level could lead to a rally to 1.3400 again.
  73. The sideways consolidation continues, apparently. We'll probably have to wait for the NFP tomorrow to end it.
  74. GBP/USD dropped sharply after the NFP data announcement, but so far there is no breakout below 1.1575 and there may not be one before the market closes today for the weekend.
  75. I meant below 1.3030. My apologies, I was also looking at the EUR/USD chart.
  76. There is a double bottom at 1.3030 as well as an inverted hammer bar on the D1 time frame. The pair will possibly start rallying again, as both of these formations are a signal for a move to the upside.
  77. more room to go. forgot i posted an actual trade on good ole elitetrader. its all in the fibs
  78. GBPUSD has almost reached the Daily resistance 1.3521-1.3550, the trend remains bullish but the correction may start around this level
  79. well. the momentum on 7 dec might bring gbpusd up a little more
  80. Another leg. 1.40 is probably in the cards over the next few weeks. Long GBPUSD and EURJPY
  81. This was spot on.
  82. We believe GBP remains expensive. Rebalancing dynamics ahead of. According to the latest research people stated that
    A fresh set of forecasts and analysis released by the Zurich-based institution shows that the Pound is expected to fall to within 5 cents of parity with the Euro, but the UK unit should fare better against the Dollar and maintain ground above $1.30.
  83. It's holding these prices very well.
  84. GBPUSD remains in the uptrend but the resistance level is already reached, so a bearish retracemnet may start soon
  85. Here we go. Should be the start of a decnt run
  86. Probably going to head to 1.40