I've never had any luck with position trading in the past, but the process of developing my day trading system has led me back to it. However, in recording my thoughts I find myself bouncing back and forth between three or four different threads, so I've decided to go ahead and start a new one focused specifically on position trading foreign currency pairs.
Monday / October 21, 2019 / 12:37 a.m. PST GBPUSD and GBPJPY look to be turning over at long last, but if they were still bearish overall, they would have done so below 1.2702 and 136.85 respectively. Consequently, based on the numbers I'm looking at now, my ultimately plan ought be to wait to buy the instruments after they hook north in the neighborhood of 1.2220 for GBPUSD and 130.79 for GBPJPY. The opposite applies to EURGBP, which I no longer regard as bullish overall, with the numbers telling me I should wait to sell the pair somewhere around 0.9066. I'm already short USDJPY, so if the pair follows through and doesn't backtrack on me, my ultimate take-profit target is near 106.21. I just now noticed however that my forecast model suggests this pair is no longer bearish overall either, so that somewhat lessons the likelihood of this asset following through, and will probably lead to my adjusting my plans for when to exit the position as well. UPDATE: I had to abandon USDJPY, because the intraday trend was steadily climbing. I will reconsider entering a short position if and when the intraday trend turns south. (If I were day trading the pair, I would have made money in both directions.) I'm waiting to short CADJPY also, but my daily trend line has yet to form a downward swinging hinge. The same is true of EURJPY.
I see that you read alot of trading stuff. Most of the trading materials out there are not working. Or it has to be customised, modified, revamped or personalised . I think time for you to develop our own trade plan, your own holy grail. and you can name it EXPIATED trading system. gbp up momentum is rather strong. jpy was a great mover 5 to 10 years ago. Now it is quite a great sleeper.
Forex is dead last few years, why moved to Index's, USDJPY and GBPJPY used to 10years ago be day tradeable nearly 24hours per day, these days 1 - 2 hours rest sideways and low volume.
How come I clear over 300 million in usd notional cash fx trades each single month? I guess it depends on the definition of dead. Perhaps you were just locked out by US regulators who effectively banned margin fx trading for US retail accounts?
I've only been trading Forex since 2011, so I wouldn't know the difference. I was trading the indices last Friday in a demo account just for fun and have traded them in the past (2010 to 2015) and I much prefer Forex. I guess its just a personal preference with me.
Monday / October 21, 2019 / 6:20 a.m. PST I've made up (banked) half of my previous loss reentering a short position when the intraday trend reversed south, so I will once again be waiting to see if USDJPY follows through. (The daily candlestick currently looks like a bullish spinning top.) My take-profit target this time is what I deem to be a more reasonable 107.04 given that I now judge the overall trend to have turned bullish. In my demo account, I doubled the trade size so it almost made up the entire loss (which was -$373.96). However, I was also long EURUSD based on the intraday price action (I made this same trade in my live account as well) so that gave me a net gain overall... AUDJPY has only a short way to go before it enters what my charts identify as the region where I should begin looking for a reversal in the daily trend, roughly between 74.65 to 75.82. USDCAD need go no further now that it is between the zone bounded by 1.2913 and 1.3121. I will therefore be watching for the right time to go long this pair for the rest of the month and into November.
right mister. most of the major currencies day range has shrinked drastically. the situation right now is very different compare with say 5 or 10 years ago. those who persisted to trade currencies recently (except gbp) will find living very difficult compare with years ago. there is simply no currency war but trade war. so trade accordingly. also there have been interest rate adjustment. so trade accordingly based on macro picture. DO NOT trade blindly. DO NOT ignore the macro picture