Record $47 Billion Sold In First Two Weeks Of 2016 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-treasuries-record-47-billion-sold-first-two- Apparently ameliorated by indirects. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...auction-draws-highest-indirect-bid-since-june There has long been conversation re: potential 10 yr. liquidity problems if world econs flatline. If the selling by petrol/commod sovereigns can be absorbed by indirects yields should demonstrate a high degree of stability.
The tin hats will read the thread title and view this as the predicted retaliation and end of the unsustainable US borrowing and possibly a shift towards other reserve currencies. The most desired asset in the world , even now, early in this play, appears to once again be USD via UST. Maybe soon swap lines for more dollars will need will bail out another ,and possibly the largest on record, debt crisis despite the concensus that , after 1998, that EM has enough reserves.
Lots of exports lead to lots of dollars. China and Japan have bought a lot of treasuries with these dollars. The article states the suspicion is that these unlocked dollars via treasury sales are recently( for almost a year now) being used to buy/support their own currency on the FX market. Implies that CNY denominated assets are being sold and converted/leaving to other currencies, and assets. Capital flight. Dollar peg was dropped and a new basket of Asain currencies will be the new reference.
If China & other Central banks are dumping treasuries, who is buying? (yields are falling, not rising) Years ago people were fearful of China dumping treasuries (yields to rise). Now that it's happening, doesn't seem to have much effect
The goldbug kooks claimed that if treasuries were to ever be dumped, we'd experience hyperinflation and an extreme crisis. LOL
americans who believe treasuries will eventually yield negative rates as exists now in europe +Canadians. Canadian investors bought a net 16.46 billion Canadian dollars ($11.30 billion) in foreign securities in November, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. The last time Canadians went on such a large buying spree of foreign equities and bonds was in December 2000 when they acquired C$5.90 billion in securities. <http://www.wsj.com/articles/canadians-break-15-year-record-on-foreign-securities-buying-1453212958>
I keep a list of these never going to happen over confident predictions. then I pull them out when they happen and have a hearty laugh.