Hey all, After years and years (10 to be precise) of struggle and fleeting success, it would appear that I have now become consistently profitable over the long haul. I've documented the majority of the journey on my blog, with the last 18 months being within the TST program. I've also decided to host my P&L curve in risk units (R) there too, which is updated via Google Sheets whenever I trade, which is pretty much everyday. Check the top right-hand corner of the blog for the "featured post" which is where you'll find the equity curve. I'm very aware that people can have long periods of profitability only to have things fall apart (been there, done that and worn the T-shirt MANY times over!!!) but this time, my approach is much more simplistic and is largely mechanical. It feels more robust as the WR is relatively low and the sample size (N) is fairly significant over a decent period of time. Also, there aren't any noticeable outliers so taking out the top 5% of winners and top 5% losers doesn't change the expectancy/drastically change P&L. Now just have to pass the restrictive Funded Trader Preparation (FTP) at TST and I'll be set . Feel free to ask any questions you may have. If things get as hostile as I've seen them get on other threads, I'll just excuse myself. Looking for mutually beneficial debate if any at all! Thanks
No...not as I traded it. I adapted the R:R to lower the variance when starting FTP as I knew the probabilities favoured failing it based on the avg. draw down. This has hurt the E but kept me within the rules so far.
I dont understand how you came to that conclusion ? Passing the TST has no bearing on whether someone is profitable or not , you can be a loser and pass their test and you can be the best trader and still fail to pass their test . GL
I arrived at that conclusion due to the stats I mentioned (as well as others) not the fact that I've passed a Combine. The Combine is just confirmation of the stats. Most of your second statement is incorrect. I would have agreed with you 100% 2 years ago when they had ridiculous- and meaningless- metrics in place such as having to have larger wins than losers, a certain WR etc. But if you can't pass a Combine now, you just can't trade. You could theoretically pass as a loser if you had a huge win that allowed you to trade out the rest of the 10 days and still meet the profit target...but that isn't my case at all.
So your celebration is too early because passing the combine itself is meaningless. (it is similar to celebrating a job interview) Let us know when you get your 2nd or 3rd paycheck from them. That will mean something...
That is one big ass size of pile of bullshit. There are plenty of profitable traders who wouldn't pass the combine, Big Mike is one of them.
Many congratulations, James. Most interesting. Very pleased to have found your blog, now, which I'll doubtless be devouring (don't worry: I won't leave tooth-marks on it.) Wishing you all the best of skill, care and luck for the FTP - which of course has a much lower profit-target than the Combine, and you'll do fine with it.