There are studies showing that either (a) buying pullbacks in an uptrend (with profit taking/loss cutting rules) or (b) trading based on momentum can beat buy-and-hold on a risk-adjusted, long-term basis. Can you show evidence that buying based on global macro guesses or valuations (in a market with poor valuations if you use the right metrics) are superior? Oh, and you're saying that Europe is old news and won't resurface? Really?!
I salute you for your prescience. Several time it has been claimed that "the whole european scenario is old news" and people got burned. Can I ask what fraction of your correctness in gauging that (for now) "the whole european scenario is old news", you consider to be down to luck? Thx D
Well...sigh...This is a long subject. But Financial planners/advisors will refer to a graph that the stock market will always go up...then they show the investor/mark a table comparing "unlucky Bob" buying at the worst possible time (the highs) and "great invester Larry" buying the dips to show that there is only a small difference in the profit between the two with a 30 year plan. Their point is the stock market always goes up and do not try and time the market. They will end up selling a load mutual fund or a variable annuity to the "mark" after meeting him/her at a free dinner. ES
Look up value investing returns compared to ANY other investing strategy. It destroys everything else. My evidence are my returns. Your returns can be yours for trend trading. I'm not saying that momentum and trend trading isn't profitable at all. There will always be people who are better at other things and are making more money than other people at certain things. And not saying that Europe won't resurface, I just thought that it was old news at the time... and I was right lol. Don't get too defensive on me. If what works for you makes money than more power too you. Just know your returns may not be as great as others who can predict market direction (not to a tee but for the most part) rather than a person who just waits for price action...
I would say all of it was luck. I made a bet and it was right based on gut feelings. The market could've risen based on many factors I haven't a clue about. In all honestly every decision made by anyone in the market is luck. You could sell based on a stock that has touched the upper band of your trend lines and the ACXWOEFIJ is over bought and the OIJOI is over 5 but in reality it could've been because some institutional trader sold his fairly large position on the ask to be able to step away from the desk to get lunch. I don't want to ever think I'm the shit and have uncanny foresight, that leads down a bad road.
Spot on. I did exactly that years ago and it worked like a charm. Mutual funds marketing departments are great at showing the market always goes up and you should get in today!
Yah, thats me I'm trolling. You guys are ridiculous. I daytrade the ES, and swing trade my 401k with the hopes of beating the market each year. Works out well for me. I dont care if u agree or not. Here's the pic to show I wasn't kidding. Pic on next post.