F, D, DF + Punch -- The Journal of Unhommefou

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Unhommefou, Jul 13, 2008.

  1. What's up?

    This is Un Homme Fou. I have been a long time lurker on this board, this being my first time posting.

    I have been watching and trading (real and paper) the markets for some time now. My live trades? Well my losses added up too fast. I have learned that doing strangles on earnings is not always profitable [that is where a large chunk of my losses came from] and that credit spreads with options don't work for me. They work for everyone else, but now for me.

    NOTE: If you ever need a stock to break support or resistance, just have me put a credit spread on the other side of said barrier -- the stock will go crashing through in NO TIME! [jk]

    After a lot of trial and error, I came up with a system that works for me.

    Initial Capital: $3000

    Yeah, not a lot, but that is the EXTRA money that I had where its total loss would not effect me.

    My system:
    *I will be doing swing trades.

    My entries will be based on a set of scans that I have setup, the major one being based on the expansion and contraction of Bollinger Bands.

    I will also trade retracements of stocks.

    Indicators used will be MACD (8,18,6), Bollinger Bands (20,2), RSI (7) and assorted moving averages.

    *Once I have a list of stocks for the day, with entries, I normally wait until 1015-1030ish to purchase option contracts on any stocks that hit my entry targets.

    *Never stay in a trade over earnings. Bit me in the but too many times long ago.

    Since the current capital is low, I will not purchase more than 3 options contracts. I will also be involved in two only 2 trades at the most for any given period of time.

    Options purchased will have the following criteria:

    .60-70 Delta
    No more than a 50 cent Bid by Ask
    at least 110 open interest

    This is going to be AWESOME!!!

    -- D, DB, B + Kick
     
  2. Seems everyone on here is of the opinion that Monday is going to be the "Black Monday".

    I have always thought that Market crashes always happened in October, so it'd be real early if Monday were the big one.

    Anyway, here is the plan for Monday:

    Possible trades to the upside: GENZ, FXP, DUG, BIIB, KV_A

    Seems that money is flowing into Biotech and out of oil refiners. I thought it was weird how oil continues to go up, but the stocks of the oil companies are going down.

    Trades to the down side: RIMM, COP, BA, PG, UTX, FAST, ESRX, UA, MDR, CSL SIAL, PNRA, GPN, VTIV

    I have attached a sample of the type of setups I look for when doing swing trades:

    PNRA:
    [​IMG]


    And KV_A:
    [​IMG]


    Can't wait 'til Monday...
     
  3. Of all the possible entries that I had yesterday only two came to fruition: VTIV to the downside, and KV/A to the upside.

    However, KV/A did not fit ANY of the options buying criteria that I had setup, so it was ignored.

    Got into the VTIV AUG 27.5 Put @ 2.60 * 3 contracts, and I set my stop to the high of the prior day. I do not plan on being in this stock very long [maybe 3 days max], to I set a close stop.

    I do have a price target of $23.25 because that is the next level of support [although it is from almost 1 1/2 years ago.]:
    [​IMG]

    For the upside, I am looking at CIG BIIB...and...uh...

    *crickets chirping

    To the downside, I am looking at CYN UB ITRI AFG CFR SNX ADM R SIAL HAR CSL and VRSN

    VRSN:
    [​IMG]

    Wish everyone a good night, and good luck!
     
  4. So, someone called in sick at work, so I had to take over teaching a class. I AM SO GLAD THAT I DID.

    Because of the class, I had missed the 1030 time to check for my entries. Almost every stock on my list did indeed hit their respective entry points that I had established.

    However, when I finally did get to check them @ 1230, some had retraced back to the close of the day before, and some even went completely in the opposite direction that I needed...

    Glad this happened, I would have stopped out of many a trade today.

    I did get into BIIB however. Like I noticed yesterday and the prior day, everyone is RUNNING into biotech. It is going to suck when that bubble pops.

    So here are my companies:
    BIIB 3x5.7 AUG 60 Calls
    VTIV 3x2.6 AUG 27.5 Puts

    VTIV shows signs of slowing down, so I may just move my stops up to collect [hopefully] as much premium as I can.

    Now, although I have a little over 50% of my capital vested, I am still going to look for plays. If I beleive said plays have the potential to work out big time, then I will sell the weaker of my two current plays, and role into these newer ones.

    UPSIDE to look at:
    CEPH
    CELG
    GILD
    DNA
    [yeah, money is movig into biotech like there is no tomorrow]
    BRCM
    CRL
    FXP
    DUG
    GRMN

    *I noticed today that BRCM had showed up in a LOT of people's journals today. If it does not work out for you guys, I apologize in advance:D

    Downside to look at:
    FWLT
    STLD
    WYNN
    FLEX
    OXY
    ACI
    MSTR
    MDR
    VMW
    TIE
    ANF
    CXG
    ICE
    GRMN:confused:

    Yeah I am watching GRMN for a possible play to both the up or downside!

    Good night!

    P.S. I noticed today that the PUTS on almost any financial stock were juiced out of their minds! I mean, the spreads that I saw on UB alone were $1.50 wide.

    Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot chuck!
     
  5. I am going to give it a few days, but is appears that we may be having a market bull rally during this bear market time.

    So, I am still in VTIV and BIIB but I have again moved my stops up.

    The one thing that sucks about being a newbie trader is also having a full time job to...sometimes it just gets in the way...repeatedly...

    Missed out on some great entries into CVX, CXG, ICE, DNA, GRMN, and BRCM. As a matter of fact, I didn't even get to even glance at the market today until 1500:mad:

    Oh well, there will be entries tomorrow, the day after that, onward and etc so, lemme get out of the past and into the future.

    Upside plays:
    CELG
    IBB
    GRMN
    BRCM
    HOLX
    CRL
    AMLN
    PRGO
    RGLD

    Downside:
    VMW
    SD
    CXG
    QCOM
    HLX
    OXY


    After looking at my momentum scans, I have been noticing a MASSIVE move away from energy stocks. Also, I noticed how a lot of energy/oil stocks ahve been moving either sideways or down while the price of oil/NG continued to hit new highs. Don't know if that is important or not, but it is something to investigate this weekend.


    <sigh> Sleep calls...
     
  6. Got out of BIIB Aug 60 calls due to being stopped out. With my type of job [where I end up traveling and teaching a lot], I always set a contingent order of a sort.
    In: 5.7 x 3
    Out: 4.6 x 3
    Total: -1.1 x 3 = -3.3 [$330]

    Account value: $2670

    Currently in VTIV [On the downside. Furthermore the stock is at support@ $23.70.] and HOLX [on the upside]

    Looking at the following for the upside:
    GENZ
    IBM:)
    HSY
    APH

    And the downside:
    AAPL
    USO
    TSO
    SNDK
    VLO
    SHLD
    ANF
    GRMN:confused:
    EXPE
    LM
    VMW:confused:
    MSTR
    FDX
    MER
    LEH
    LOGI

    Sample of what I am looking at:
    IBM
    [​IMG]


    VMW
    [​IMG]

    :D
     
  7. HOLX hit my stop point and GRMN had earnings coming up.

    I actually contemplated violating my holding over earnings rule for GRMN. After an hour and some change of thinking about it, I just completely sold the position...something about it just did not feel right.

    Which was a good thing, because the stock IMMEDIATELY cratered $2.

    Not to mention that all gadget related stocks have been taking an @$$ pounding with no lube during earnings -- EVEN WHEN THEY BEAT!

    So, here is where I am

    Account Inital: $3000
    Account Current: $2670

    VTIV = $270 profit

    HOLX = $90 loss

    GRMN = $540 loss

    Account final: $2370

    ROI so far (on $3000): -20%

    Now, I could have jumped back into BIIB after I sold it it and rode it up to a good profit, but unfortunately my job got in the way again -- this time it was due to training on the road.

    It is time to bite the bullet and order another license of the program I am using and install it on my company laptop:D

    Upside possible plays:
    OXPS [ironic since I use them for trading]
    CRDN
    CVH
    HNT
    CI
    NOC

    It appears that money is now flowing into Health insurance and defense stocks

    Downside plays
    BA
    DRYS
    CL
    SOLF
    VLO
    MNST
    MSTR
    CVS
    ABV
    OSTK
    VMW
    USO
    ACH
    MER

    Get some!
     
  8. So, I no longer have that "extra" money in my account. A medical emergency happened, and umm...I discovered that my medical policy has a VERY, VERY expensive hospital deductible.

    So, I am going to continue this journal with "paper" trades.

    Also, I am going to start looking into trading futures. I picked up a book and got a chance to read it during my "stay" and based on many of the charts on some of the commodities that I have looked at [that do not have ETFs associated], seems very interesting.

    Hell, I didn't even know that LEAD and PALLADIUM were even traded on exchanges...not to mention that the charts on lead look pretty nice.

    Also, am learning about FOREX as well. The Australian dollar aint looking pretty right now, but can't jump on anything until I learn all about it.

    Time to upgrade my edu-ma-cation

    BTW, anybody got some ideas on good books for trading futures?
     
  9. So, I have started trading currencies...at least on paper.

    I am currently testing out FXCM, but I am not liking the platform so much right now.

    I have looked at some charts and saw that the $CAD/CHF looked like a good buy, but FXCM either didn't support that pair, the pair is not available in demo accounts, or I am just dumb :(

    Did my first every FOREX trade [paper] today. I sold the $EUR/CHF pair @ 1.6097 with a stop in at 1.6200 [the high of the last 24 hour session].

    Stocks that I am looking to track for tomorrow's session:

    UPSIDE:
    GENZ
    TRMB
    ROK
    MAT
    OSIP ;)
    EQ
    WU
    TSL
    STP
    VMW
    TGT
    PSD
    VIVO ;)
    CRL
    SCOR
    CASY
    CELG ;)
    DNA ;)
    SNDK
    UA
    FFIV
    GD
    SOLF
    ESRX

    DOWNSIDE:
    HAR
    XOM
    COP


    It appears that Biotech, defense, and drug stores stocks have been on a tear for the past few weeks, and now SOLAR technologies are joining them.

    Also, have a long and hard decision, I have dropped the use of volume from my trading. Not that volume is not good, but using the Bollinger Bands plus price seem to working pretty well on their own [with RSI and MACD used to spot divergence]........plus, the FOREX markets don't report volume and back testing my system without volume has not changed any of the results for getting in and out of a security.
     
  10. Got into the OCT 08 35 Call for VMW @ 2x7.7 on the OX virtual trader.

    Drug stores and solar are kicking the tires and lighting the fires in this new market.

    But the banks, that have been regaining some momentum, are dropping like hotcakes now!!!

    Looking at the following companies for tomorrow:

    UPSIDE:

    FMD
    XFML
    NEXC
    IDEV
    AAPL

    DOWNSIDE:
    PBKS
    RAS
    CPE
    GU
    DB
    HBC
    RWT
    DV
    MER
    ICE


    AND THE SEXY TIME BREAKOUT!!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #10     Aug 18, 2008