Wait, what? You giving us two 10bp ranges for this Friday close? that's brave... Can I make a bet that it will NOT end in your ranges (neither between 211.71 and 211.51 nor between 208.49 and 208.29)?
Read it again. The two prices are not a range - they are one OR the other at expiry- $211.61 OR $208.39 - plus/minus a dime. :0
Right, so as I said, I am willing to bet that it's not gonna be within 10 cents to EITHER of the two numbers - you giving two 20c-wide expiration ranges ("give of take a dime"), I am willing to take the other side I'll bet sushi dinner in Manhattan, choice of the winner?
So are you for the long SPY 210.00 straddle or short SPY 210.00 straddle? EDIT: My post #20 states they both will break even when they expire. Unless the market moves beyond what is priced into the SPY ATM options.
I don't see how your prediction has anything to do with a straddle. You said (and I quote): "one OR the other at expiry- $211.61 OR $208.39 - plus/minus a dime". Translating it into a payoff would give us two double digital options: OptionGuru Bet = $N * if(SPY > 211.51 and SPY < 211.71) + $N * if( SPY > 208.29 and SPY < 208.49) I want to take the other side of that bet, please - so my payout would be sle Bet = $N - OptionGuru Bet I am offering that we make the notional ($N) a sushi dinner in a restaurant of the winners choice.
The market doesn't reward dumb money - making it difficult for both sellers and buyers to profit. The ATM straddle is priced to break even for both sellers and buyers. For the sellers or buyers to profit the market must move beyond what is priced into the options. The buyers want a bigger move - the sellers a smaller move.
Whatever you say, dude! Are we on for the bet or are you chickening out? PS. I recon the odds are 5:1 in my favor, roughly :I
Feck you OG anyway, as I said I was going to T2W after a mod stopped me posting in another thread where I tried to highlight con men, but so be it, I do as I like Lets have a little competition then and see who gets the closer - interesting take btw! SPX will finish on Friday between 2050 and 2075 - these numbers may change due to volumes traded between now and Friday - will update tomorrow evening, and on Friday. SPY is a bit harder, but here goes - finish between 210 and 211 - funny enough they are close to your numbers, and will change due to volume traded by Friday as mentioned! This should be interesting - but will need a few weeks to see how we get on? J_S
Just had a look at SPY chart..key support on way down is 208.46 - this is gona be interesting, what ever happens! Just confirmed, key resistance on way up was 208.49, which was taken out. Current price is 209.47 J_S
Don't waste your time OG, just do as I do and tell them to "fuk off and don't be annoying me" Back to business What about the straddle on diff days - say, what about the difference in atm straddle on Mon versus Wed, as market makes its moves? It's been a long time since a post has got me seriously thinking, so, at least you have achieved that - now let's see who is closer to finish price for Friday - I hope you are btw J_S