Every major bear is now bullish

Discussion in 'Trading' started by joeyata1, Dec 6, 2008.

  1. Nice! And he doesn't collect AUM fees or a percentage of profits. :)

    Let me rephrase - is there any newsletter writer or money manager who is CURRENTLY bearish, but was bullish for the 90s and mid-2000s bull runs?

    IE, is there any person of note who is calling for lots more down who isn't also a stuck clock?
     
    #21     Dec 6, 2008
  2. Why all these moronic headfucks as to whether the market is a 'bear' or a 'bull'? Big volatility is where the money is for futures daytraders day after day (ES,CL,etc). The points are big. Trade those intraday swings fearlessly. You do have to actually trade and be in the market though.:D
     
    #22     Dec 6, 2008
  3. Well said Bill.

    Now Bill understands that you cannot be a perma bear/always short and be profitable over the long haul. Over the last 10 years including this year, Fleckenstein is, at best, even. There are very few shorts who have been profitable over the 10 year cumulative period, unless the shorts have been short term traders, capitalizing on good timing, while avoiding the swift ascents. Very few have the ability to do this.

    The only measure of how effective a short seller has been is not their performance this year, it is their performance over 5 year, 10 years, even 15 years. Past performance shows which short sellers have been able to capitalize in both rising and falling markets.

    Tice and Fleckenstein, both at best even over the last 10 years, have shown that always being short is not the way to go.
     
    #23     Dec 6, 2008
  4. MGJ

    MGJ

    "Every major bear is now bullish"

    Even Robert Prechter? His website at http://www.elliottwave.com/ still appears pretty bearish, to me.
     
    #24     Dec 6, 2008
  5. Seeking Alpha says job losses not a big deal: the same argument I was using last friday. The dow then proceeded to surge 300 points because I am right:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/109...on-record-yes-41st?source=article_lb_articles

    seekingalpa is run by some of the smartist investing minds. The contributors aren't easily swayed by the doom and gloom media generated nonsense, which is why they are bullish.
     
    #25     Dec 7, 2008
  6. BadCo

    BadCo

    Job losses aren't a big deal until it's your job. Then, it becomes a huuuuge deal.
     
    #26     Dec 7, 2008
  7. LOL!

    How about the 100?
     
    #27     Dec 7, 2008
  8. weld1

    weld1

    well,for what its worth i think the markets are at a point where if it breaks to the upside there will be alot of shorts flushed in a quick fashion! i really don't think that will happen but who knows. as far as the economy goes which i don't how that is reflected in the markets[i know it is but i'm not smart enough to make that call]as far as the economy goes though i think we are FUCKED!!! this time next yr. i probably won't be able to buy a job. i think we will be back to shorting rallies this week. i hope! oh well...thats my 2 cents
     
    #28     Dec 7, 2008
  9. weld1

    weld1

    sorry stocktrader3 but if i think ur bull run is over for a while at least...
     
    #29     Dec 7, 2008
  10. S2007S

    S2007S

    So a rally on negative news is now completely bullish, it might be for a few hours but everyone should know by now that sentiment on wallstreet changes within minutes, I would not be the least surprised to see the Dow down triple digits on Monday. How many times do I have to repeat myself by saying the bottom is not in.
     
    #30     Dec 7, 2008