Wow...i can finally sleep tonight. i ahve been looking for this for a while now. finally came...the bear stars are lined up...and we are getting bearish triggers.
Comments on todays action?
I went heavily short (fully leveraged) in my personal account last night. (i can gamble with my own money)
and went 50% short (institutional fund that i manage) this morning...the other half is in cash, and if jobs reports are bad...will go 100% short next week for the next 3-5 months.
1. I thought the bond market has been quite telling (insititutions loading up...takes a lot to move bonds)
2. weak dollar (if you call it good or bad) has people spooked
3. the obvious overbought conditions
4. inability to make higher highs
5. Doji yesterday on the daily
6. decent odds of a bad manufacturing reoprt today...
7. and more bearinsh gesturing towards data
These thing made it a pretty safe looking short trade today.
i will finally have a relaxing weekend...
well, congrats! The short squeeze is clearly over, now the question is how are the pullbacks. You've got a good position. If we consolidate without breaking way low after a few weeks I think it bodes well for the market, if we pullback, pop, then dump then maybe its a false breakout.
I think you actually learn alot more about a trend in its pullback period than during its rally. Of course, I expect this to take several weeks to resolve.
Most importantly, we need to see indices hold their breakout points (usually you get pullbacks to the breakout point and see them hold). I think the action in popular momentum stocks like GOOG will be telling as well.
Nice short,, you seem to have caught at least an intermediate top.