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Every Bear has his day....

  1. Wow...i can finally sleep tonight. i ahve been looking for this for a while now. finally came...the bear stars are lined up...and we are getting bearish triggers.

    Comments on todays action?

    I went heavily short (fully leveraged) in my personal account last night. (i can gamble with my own money)


    and went 50% short (institutional fund that i manage) this morning...the other half is in cash, and if jobs reports are bad...will go 100% short next week for the next 3-5 months.


    1. I thought the bond market has been quite telling (insititutions loading up...takes a lot to move bonds)
    2. weak dollar (if you call it good or bad) has people spooked
    3. the obvious overbought conditions
    4. inability to make higher highs
    5. Doji yesterday on the daily
    6. decent odds of a bad manufacturing reoprt today...
    7. and more bearinsh gesturing towards data


    These thing made it a pretty safe looking short trade today.


    i will finally have a relaxing weekend...

    anyone else?
     
  2. well, congrats! The short squeeze is clearly over, now the question is how are the pullbacks. You've got a good position. If we consolidate without breaking way low after a few weeks I think it bodes well for the market, if we pullback, pop, then dump then maybe its a false breakout.

    I think you actually learn alot more about a trend in its pullback period than during its rally. Of course, I expect this to take several weeks to resolve.

    Most importantly, we need to see indices hold their breakout points (usually you get pullbacks to the breakout point and see them hold). I think the action in popular momentum stocks like GOOG will be telling as well.

    Nice short,, you seem to have caught at least an intermediate top.
     
  3. if recent past experience is any indicator you should probably take profits. they have a nasty habit of fooling the bears as of late. maybe this time its different.
     
  4. yea this is what the bears needed. Like I said before this is the 2nd time this week the dow has seen a triple digit intraday loss. There is still an hour and half left of trading so anything is possible. I dont think though there will be too much buying before the close ahead of the weekend. The dow could have a chance of closing it around 12175 but the bears will hopefully keep it down.
     
  5. I too loaded up today. The high volume the past couple of days made it appear that some distribution was finally in place.

    I've detected more and more bullishness on ET and other message boards.

    I've never seen a bonds vs. stocks argument over the economy err on the side of stocks. Bonds are Bill Gross. Stock world is Cramer and Waxie......

    I'm also cognizant that this market bottomed at the onset of the Iraq war. Today the news is filled with "peace" or rather filled with reports on how the U.S. will be leaving Iraq. Peace is a sell. Capitulation to Islamic extremists is a triple sell.....
     
  6. There will be a lot of covering next week...
     
  7. actually, i think the dow has another thrust up left in it, the question is can we clear the highs or does it fail.

    Since this rally began, DOW has led so it needs to breakout on the thrust (probably next week or the week after) or at least short-term we're sideways to down. (for several weeks). IMHO.
     
  8. The perpetual bull speaks!

    Have you ever shorted a stock in your life?
     
  9. Can you explain why you think so? All I ever hear from you is cheerleading. And I read your journal from last summer when you held those awful positions against you and got lucky that the market bailed you out. The market will not always treat you this way. It seems you have no concept of risk management. You sound like a "going down with the ship" kind of guy.

     
  10. cramer sez buy on tv just now.is cramer ever wrong?jk
     
  11. haha....I wish i was watching cnbc right now. Did he really say that...amazing. During the last 3 days Tuesday Wed and Thurs he mocked the 156 point selloff numerous times after seeing the DOW make its way higher again. I hope monday we dont get another 80+ point rally or else I will feel foolish for not taking advantage of this selloff.
     
  12. Sir,

    Its a very bullish day in the oil/energy sector. Its time to immediately sell all stocks and go full bore into USO, XLE, and all energy/oil plays.

    OPEC president sees more oil supply cuts
    Fri Dec 1, 2006 9:16 AM ET



    By Tom Ashby

    ABUJA (Reuters) - OPEC will probably trim oil supply again when it meets on December 14 although existing curbs are starting to remove some of the world's surplus, the producer group's president said on Friday.

    Nigeria's Edmund Daukoru told Reuters the volume of the reduction will depend on circumstances at the time, but oil's rally this week and a decrease in fuel stockpiles will influence the group's decision.

    "There is likely to be further trimming. The actual amount would depend on circumstances," said Daukoru.

    "What we are seeing now will definitely influence our decision on how much to cut."

    The price of U.S. crude has risen by nearly $6 a barrel to just above $62 since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency meeting in October to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November 1.

    "(The price rise) is not too much of a surprise, because the cuts announced took time to manifest and for the compliance to be noticed by the market," said Daukoru.

    "I am happy to see prices have firmed somewhat. I am beginning to be happy, but not fully happy."

    A Reuters survey showed 10 OPEC members bound by output curbs honored two thirds of their agreed cut during November. Supply was still nearly 600,000 bpd above a target of 26.3 million bpd.

    "With the drawdown in stocks, the cuts are beginning to work," said the OPEC president.

    U.S. crude fell to a 17-month low of $54.86 on November 17, a level which Daukoru said would not allow producers to invest in bringing on new oil.

    "Plans to install new capacity would have been in jeopardy if prices had stayed at the level they were two weeks ago."
     
  13. Yep, he called this selloff bullshit. Said bears are pressing and gettign away with it b/c nobody is at work on a snowy friday. Said get long right now. Fuckign guy is really unbelievable.
     
  14. Although I agree that some are perpetual bulls, I do not think that to short stocks is mandatory to make money. Actually I happen to short ETFs at times to hedge my long only systems in individual stocks. You can be long Oil, gold stocks or even Merck today and make money. Shorting individual stocks seems to be more of an ego thing than really making money, on a consistent basis, ala "yes I nailed it". I am sure some interesting psychological analysis could be made on this phenomenon of shorting.
     
  15. There are many reasons why the selloff we have seen this week isn't a big deal and is a buying opp.

    First, if you look at the 3 months chart for the nasdaq you will see that many times during the rally it has corrected to previous support levels, but rebounded soon after. This happened back in Nov5. And a few others. (chart)

    [​IMG]


    I also see people justifying why the current rally may end. There is speculation over poor numbers, economy slowing, oil, 'chart breakdown' program selling, and so on.

    however, as my summer journal
    shown i was right in that there was no COMPELLING reason for the markets to continue selling off in July. And thats why it has rebounded to hew high as I said it would. Bernake would stop raising rates, (and he did) so the only direction was up.

    An example of a compelling reason for a longer term reversal (1-5 years) would be a terrorist attack on US soil (like 911), severe breakdown in international relations & turmoil (70's), extreme overvaluation combined with parabolic chart (late 90's & 20's).

    Even the 1987 crash rebounded soon after (only 5 years) because there was no good reason for the selloff to happen. Valuations were high, but not like in the late 90's.

    Mondays triple digit selloff was the result of profit taking stemming from mediocre blackfriday sales and poor Wallmart earnings. No compelling reason for the selloff. Just usual profit taking as has been seen beforein the past 6 months.
     

  16. thats too funny, said nobody is at work on a snowy friday...so thats why the market is down, because the people in chicago are snowed in.
     
  17. Yes, extreme bullishness...

    Yes, Distribution... Even Today the negative Vol Diff (UpVol - DwnVol) for the SPX is monster negative...

    No to Capitulation to Islamic Extremists... More accurately <b>Capitulation to extreme inefficiency of the present presidential administration... </b> As far as i know western civilization has not capitulated to the 3 terrorists rattling their sabers in their underground caves halfway around the world...

    cj...


    HAVE STOP <img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif"> WILL TRADE
     
  18. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. good one.

    you should research the 87 crash...it was october 19 th by the way..i remember the exact day.

    were you even born before then son?

    do you have a clue why that happened?????
     
  19. There is no difinitive explanation of the 87' crash. Ask any financial expert.
     
  20. as luck would have it...i have 1 long....OIL.

    :D
     
  21. AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!

    :D :D :D

    thousands and thousands of people dont start selling at one time due to "no difinitive explination" that is funny.

    let just say a few little words and a massive rate hike were heard round the world.

    where DO you get this crap?
     
  22. Certainly shorting isn't mandatory to make $$$. But a LOT of people (who don't short) had a tough time from the bubble in early 2000 until the market finally moved up a few years later. I'm sure there are some still expecting (i.e. hoping) for NAZ 5000 again.

    I have no ego when it comes to shorting individual stocks. Pick a stock, or sector, that's overbought or ripe for profit taking and/or pullback.

    To me any serious trader that only plays the long side is like a football coach that only runs the ball. To not pass the football (or not short) stocks is giving up a good part of the game.
     
  23. How is your short doing? I am certain you will be amoung the 1000's to cover next week.

    Here is the wikipedia entry for blackmonday

    as you can see there is no 'single' explanation

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
     
  24. Your positions were from May/June b/f the market started climbing (from your chart). Had you been wrong you would have gotten crushed. You just held and held hoping and praying. I dont know how much $$$ you had on the line but you could have easily gotten crushed. My point is, you cant be so blindly following one side. If and when its over, you have to be willing to accept that otherwise you will get wiped out.


     
  25. I am sure that some traders make good money from the short side. I am talking about swing trades only, at this point. I could not develop good trading systems with excellent performance in the shorting individual stocks arena. Probably due to the very strong up bias of the 1990-2006 period.
     
  26. Does anyone really believe that those who have been long since '03 or '04 are sticking around?

    C'mon. They're picking their exits right now.

    Only the genuine Buffet's and Miller's are sticking around.
     
  27. If i was long the CSCO and INTC and ORCL and MSFT and all those nice techs back in 03 and 04 I certainly would be selling now. Heck I went long an ETF in May of 2006 right before everything fell and ended up holding it for the dividend, finally in November it touched my buy price and sold out of it for a minor profit. Still trading where it was since I sold it.
     
  28. I still think we have one more rise up, maybe even to a new high. The fund managers do know there is no way they will make money next year so they have to bring the market down soon, but I don't think we are quite there yet. We have had 2 distribution days which does not bode well for the market, but I have seen this happen before only to rise again for a bigger selloff.
     
  29. Yea the nasdaq rebounded sharply off the 2390 level an hour ago. 'Smart Money' isn't going to let the markets drop much lower.

    December rally coming up.
     
  30. True, we could get another run in this market back above 12300. Market is trying to trade higher.
     

  31. your too funny:p :p :p
     

  32. Did they say that back in May when the markets tanked around 8%
     
  33. I'm not trying to be.... :cool:
     
  34. He is a delusional boy ... we all went through that phase in the beginning ... he will learn someday ...

    "100% up room to go" yayyyyy teammmm!!!!!! :confused:
     
  35. Thats was over fed concerns. And prior to that point, the markets seemed to be undergoing distribution between Jan-May. There is much more buying pressure now as you can see from the very strong uptrend.
     
  36. Your day of reckoning is oh so close.
     
  37. TIme for green close $$$
     

  38. He says that when Kudlow is sticking it in, telling him he's his little Goldilocks bitch.




    j/k
     
  39. Now THAT WAS FUNNY!!:D :D :D
     

  40. yea coming close.

    I guess the bulls are taking back there 40 point gain they lost in 30 minutes yesterday right before the close.
     

  41. Hahhaha :p Awesome


    Now you're just being stupid.
     
  42. would have been great to see 2 out of 5 triple digit loss days
     
  43. amazzzzzzzzzzzzzzingg.
     
  44. The way it is going with 13 minutes to go, we might end up green on S&P !
     
  45. Wow look at those shorties cover into the close
     


  46. I knew it, 12175 it wassssss
     
  47. now i have to hear cramer hype this one up
     
  48. geeez....120 down to 40 down...

    PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM to the rescue!

    either way...very volitle stuff....i am staying short.
     

  49. its good to see the volatility back at least, seems like anything is possible now that we have this steady rise in the markets out of the way.
     
  50. as i said.
     
  51. Volatility is an understatement. This is some wild sh*t but you gotta luv it on the shorter time frames.
     
  52. Wow dow gained 100 points into the close...nuts
     
  53. Scalper's paradise!
     
  54. SHORTS GOT PWNED!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  55. I wrote at 2:30 while the markets were tanking that there was a good chance of the markets recovering back to 12175+ like they did. Did I go long anything??? No I didnt, but came close to buying 500 SMH at 33.80 right before it tanked to intraday lows. Glad I didnt at the time but Kind of regret it now. Instead I took out a short on XHB.
    Monday is a new day, im sure we open up positive and trend higher through out the day, reason I say this is because of the 100 point intraday rally back to 12194.

    The news at 10am wasnt worth a -27 it was worth a -100+ . The bears are getting close.
     
  56. This is the kind of volitility that comes during tops and bottoms. The weekly chart was set for a beaarish conformation this week, but the last 30 minutes today ruined everything as the jam job took place. I am so ready for this market to fall and fall hard.
     
  57. dip buyers will keep buying until it fails and burns them. so far it has worked.
     
  58. Thats a pretty big 'until'

    Dip buyers did pretty good in the 90's and since 2002
     
  59. I am sorry to ask, but why are you so ready to see the market fall? Why do you care if it falls/jumps ? Thanks. Just curious.
     
  60. vix going higher. i am craving myself to see it at least @14.
     
  61. "Western Civilization" - ha-ha-ha-ha!!! Don't kid yourself. Capitulation to Islamic extremists is a done deal. Done their way.

    Phony pop-culture leftism rules in Europe and the US. People just want to watch the telly in their Che Guevara t-shirts. Or put on their Che sweatshirt to go out and buy some chips and a copy of "Us" or "hello!" magazine. Or put on their Che slippers and whack off to pictures of Britney Spears' beaver on the internet. And their Che-wear and computers are made in China where the US has shipped its GDP and manufacturing capability.

    The US just elected a Congress that wants to surrender in Iraq as soon as possible. Bush had his crackpot idea of making Iraq a democracy but - surprise - the Iraqis don't WANT democracy! LOL! They want the same tribal, Neanderthal society they've always had. Europe cowers while Iran builds a weapons capability that could wipe them out in a few minutes. Their only concern is how to sell the Iranians more technology to destroy them faster. Well, that, and how to best crawl and grovel before their new masters in their home-grown Muslim minority. Do a little reading about recent events in Belgium and the UK.

    Universities in the US and the rest of the world have whole departments devoted to teaching the idea that the US is the one true evil on Earth. Virtually all of the big media outlets around the world say the same thing. America is hated in most of Europe and Osama bin Laden is more popular than the US in most of Asia.

    Meanwhile, people in "the west" just want to be left alone to consume cheap crap like the slack-jawed morons that they are. If "Western Civ" goes down the crapper, oh well, just don't turn off the TV and my supply of cheesy snacks.

    The process will only accelerate because the educational system in western nations teaches both natives and immigrants that the culture they live in is to be hated. That it is worse than virtually anyplace else. The BBC, NY Times and others spread that message into every corner of the world.

    Western Civilization may not be dead yet but it sure smells funny. :D
     
  62. hell..i had on friggin impressive P&L today....i ended in the green..but nothing spectacular.

    I have to say if nothing else it was a fun day.

    glad this shit can still put a smile on my face. :D


    wild..i would really like to know what propped up the market last 30 min...it seems very coordinated...like everyone is using the same program. either that or something very ccordinated.