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EUR/AUD

  1. Having rarely followed this pair, I'd like to hear commentary from the usual informed group as to why this pair is skyrocketing like it is. It's easy to throw "unwinding of carry trade" as the reasoning behind it, but I'm looking to get a bit deeper than that.

    It's highly overbought, and has shot up over 500-600 pips without correcting. And still shows no sign of doing so, though I am tempted to fade here for the correction.

    Any thoughts?

    -Ivan
     
  2. I was just looking at this one too...It's trying to break 1.7000. I am not in this trade right now, but in the next little while, I might put in a short.

    -Kastro
     
  3. Are you short on this one Ivan? I have not traded this one that much, and from the looks of it, 300 pips spikes are quite common.

    -Kastro
     
  4. Was, but got stopped. WOn't go back in to this. It's just too ridiculous. Hell, the whole market is insane at the moment - I might just take a month's vacation. I've done miserably in March.
     
  5. This market's been very treacherous lately.

    Requires heavy hedging to make any money.

    x
     
  6. March will be my first losing month since December of 2004, and my second losing month since I began trading Forex. While the long term record is still very nice, it doesn't make getting punched in the face any easier.
     
  7. Sorry to hear about that Ivan...But hey, be very proud that you have only been in the whole TWICE since you started trading forex. I am sure next month you will RAPE the market!

    This month has been off and on for me too. Had 2 really big winners, and the rest were pretty much crap.

    -Kastro
     
  8. You know why, don't you? Bernanke alluded to it Monday night. Massive global liquidity, coinz specifically, who is back in action. Retail traders crushed underfoot, central bankers cowering -- this guy is pitiless.

     
  9. Ivan, if you can isolate it to a few trades that incidentally just didn't work out, you shouldn't let one month's results trouble you much at all. However, it's endemic of markets that those doing well for a time will be the ones most vulnerable when the markets shift, so in that sense stay on your toes.
     
  10. Thanks, mates. Appreciate the kind words. No doubt I'll come back as Kastro says and tear April a new one.

    I'd like to hear more about Chood's commentary, though. If you have a moment, Chood, and can post a paragraph giving more detail on what you mean in that, it'd be great.

    Cheers.
     
  11. I know that emotionally one "big" loss can lead to really twice-three times bigger loss or margin call eventually.

    Ivan, ask your emotions - do they need a rest for $1000 month or ten times bigger fee of fx extream jorney for your SLs :D
     
  12. Not sure I follow you, but I don't honestly get emotional about it. Sure, I'm feeling a bit defeated, but that's life. I'm not about to throw a strategy that has been winning consecutively for 14 months straight into the wind just because of one stupid month.

    I'll be just peachy. I just need a break. And since I live in Puerto Rico and the beach is right across the street from my condo, I'm just gonna take a week's vacation (from the real job AND the market) and come back in April ready to do the deed.
     
  13. I see a lot of typing but not enough substance.

    As a yardstick use the following: If you have posted an annual return 2-3 times your max drawdown, you have performed well. Thus, if your maxDD for the year was 5%, a return of 10-15% can be considered to be respectable. I am not the only one who uses the following yardstick, PTJ uses it as well.

    I dont know of any record in which 20+% returns were achieved with 1% being max. losing month.
     
  14. You contradict your own statements. Why would you even have to close a losing trade when your system can never lose even once? (as if such a thing existed)
     
  15. And I don't know of any record of substance gained by a trader who ends up bagged.

    x
     
  16. I know all this. I pointed out to the fact that you contradicted your statements which makes you look foolish.

    And nice try trying to get Ivan to give up his strategy to you. I respect Ivan because he has had the guts to call his trades as they comes, post his 2005 trading results (which were 6 figure winnings: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=60847), and has been helpful to countless individuals. Secondly I dont see why you are all after Ivan for losing a trade. A good trader knows that there are hot and cold streaks. Considering he had only two losing months since starting to trade FX, he probably knows what in the world he is doing.

    Good luck trying to take other people's systems.

    Want to prove your credibility as a system developer? Show us your statements, start a journal, call your trades. And no a demo account doesn't count.
     
  17. Cheers, Maharas. A good 80-85% of the traders here know you're speaking the gospel. The problem is you picked one of the 15% of the others to preach it to. I don't usually respond to Skalpz/Coinz/Whateverz because rarely does he have anything borderline intellectual to say.

    Skalpz or "X", etc., ad infinitum - I appreciate you offering to take the time to analyze my trading system, and I apologize if I seem critical. Just know that I would be equally critical of a twelve year-old offering to give a surgeon lessons on "how to cut better".

    Fact of the matter is that you forget I've seen you in "action", and I'm horrified of your trading method (as most are who witness it).

    So let's do this: You continue to do...whatever it is you're doing, and I'll continue to have one bad month every fourteen. Savy?

    -Ivan
     
  18. Sounds good. I remember was watching Puerto Rico at google earth...nice area...and bitch :) But I don't think that it's a good time to take a rest now...FOMC, GDP (US & CA), JP (CPI) and probably coming Yuan move next week...to much to be outside of.

    I don't like when the market goes against me, but I really-really hate when it moves without me.

    But on the other hand, especially FOMC, so much volatility and liquidity can make nothing but propellers in coming week.

    If I were the one-armed economist that can't say on the other hand :D

    Have a nice weekend!!!
     
  19. Humor. No message encoded. Although Exchanges found one it appears, witness his "blood pit" remark. Maybe he's Spawn of Coinz.
     
  20. He posted nothing.

    I see no snapshot of an actual account P/L. All I see there is numbers he wrote.

    Like this:

    Year 2005:

    Month.............Interest...............P/L
    January..........100 ..........1100.
    February.........1,000,000............1,001,100

    Total for 2005...1,000,000,000,000,000,000.

    If you want call that reality it's up to you.

    And whoever you want to respect, that's up to you, too.

    Take it lightly,

    x
     
  21. Whatever, Maharani.

    I have no interest in taking anyone's losing system.

    I just offered to fix it for him.

    I'll tell you again, think!

    theX
     
  22. Sorry exchanges/coinz/skapz, but it's really starting to get old after the third time around.

    You need fresh material. Or better yet, maybe a new audience? :)
     
  23. The market will always be here, moving. It'll be here when I get back.
     
  24. Whatever you say. Everyone here knows who is full of it and who is not.
     
  25. Spoken like a pro. That's exactly the attitude you should have, Ivan...
     
  26. That's exactly right, Ivansky.

    I eat "pros" for breakfast everyday in the market in my live trading account using real money (not a simulator).

    Good... luck....

    theeXchanger
     
  27. X, I'm glad humility is one of your stronger traits...
     
  28. Yeah, well, somehow, "humble" and "global currency trader" don't quite match.

    x
     
  29. Actually, they match absolutely perfectly. Humilty is exactly the trait you need with the market, just as a sailor needs with the ocean. At any time, the ocean can decide to crush the sailor, so he needs to be humble and respect it.

    But since you're not a real "Globabl currency trader" then why should you have humility? You're just fine for who you are, I say. ET comic relief.
     
  30. All I did was post what Oanda's site shows you when you click on "Account transactions" and "summary". As for my trades, I frequently post them in various USD/CAD EUR/USD., etc threads. I post my position size, my direction and when my TP arrives. At that point, any monkey can make the calculation and see what the amount of money made/lost was. And if you look you'll see amounts of money in line with the summary I provided.

    I think you just missed a lot of it because those were either the times you left ET "for good" or were banned. Not sure, I have trouble following your soap opera here - miss one episode and you're trying to play catch up and all that.
     
  31. He's just fishing for ideas ivan, the sad thing is he doesn't realize he could be given every edge in the market and still blow out his account.
     
  32. What's wrong with you, Illiquid? Don't you know that he never loses? It's like Mr. Market.

    I'll bet you Skalpz can bench press 400 lbs and has a hairy chest, too :)
     
  33. That's plausible if skalpz was female :D
     
  34. Anyways, back to the pair :D

    This one is out of control...Does anyone have a position in this one?

    -Kastro
     
  35. Nope. Heading to the beach.
     
  36. Should be good to recharge your batteries, for a full week. (No cheating with wireless, now! :)) I force myself to do just that, a few times a year. Over the long term, burnout in this business is a far greater risk than a few opportunities passed.
     
  37. NO cheating. I know. Just put the wife on a plane to Russia, will see her in 3 weeks. Gonna play on the beach, play video games, download pr0n. Order pizza, wear the same Tshirt for a few days in a row...

    You know, the usual guy-pig things.
     
  38. Ahh, sounds like the life :)

    -Kastro
     
  39. Oh, I don't know.

    I've bled real money.

    I think that qualifies me as a real Global currency trader.

    But, your sentiment is noted.

    Good luck on the beach.

    See ya in the forex when you get back... if you know what I mean.

    :cool:
    x
     
  40. Yes, they are different things. But the one similarity is that you're neither! :)

    Please, post real positions. Simulator positions are so yawn. I do, however, agree with your belief that it's got to correct. All the Japs who took out money from AUD and NZD to close their fiscal year will be putting some of it back in April.

    And incidently, I got sunburned today :( Can't even win on the beach :(
     
  41. Well, let's just say... I try to do what I can....

    Just keep in mind that entering the forex against guys like me... is voluntary. :)

    x
     
  42. And often desirable.