EU - where is it going next?

This is my view.

What do you think?

 

If Tuesday morning Flash numbers come out in line or slightly better than sure it will head that way. But untill tuesday I would expect it to be slightly down or sideways.

Numbers will be bad we all know that as you saw German q/q GDp was %0.1 its just will they be really terrible enough to send the euro back to 1.40 level my guess is yes but in full disclosure im short several currencies right now heading into tuesdays event

 

Maybe short once it comes close to the trend line?

 

Bear flag consolidation pattern on EUR/USD?

 

If Tuesday morning Flash numbers come out in line or slightly better than sure it will head that way.

But untill tuesday I would expect it to be slightly down or sideways.

Numbers will be bad we all know that as you saw German q/q GDp was %0.1 its just will they be really terrible enough to send the euro back to 1.40 level my guess is yes but in full disclosure im short several currencies right now heading into tuesdays event

...............?

jp,

this crap has nothng to do with the game.

price moves according to the master plan.

cheers,

s

 

The price reached measured move objective and the flag pattern is over so far as I can see. At this point one would mistakenly think there is another flag pattern developing. In mu opinion it's not and the price may break up or down from the range - I don't like that indecisiveness and may look for some other pair or take a break.

 

I don't know - they may intervene again. If they don't it may go south?

What do you think?

 

I agree. Especially with the "?". If you pull the graph out long enough to see summer of '10, it's a good reminder of where the Euro stands IMO. Obviously this is 100% event/media risk otherwise the Euro would be much less valuable than it was back then - regardless of the dollar's position. Looking at the market CDS spreads and default probabilities of Belgium, Spain, Ireland etc., there are plenty more events coming shortly. Any thoughts?

 

If EUR/USD can break 1.3500 resistance, I expect a movement towards 1.3620. Even though the pair seems bearish atm , a daily close above 1.3520 may push it up to 1.3750 and 1.3880.

If it breaks 1.3300 then 1.3170 is next. A close below 1.3170 would increase selling pressure and we may see 1.2980/70

 

Maybe a bit more south?

What about that pattern - H&S?

What do you think?