Here is the live 2021 trade performance of our ES bot, which buys the ES or MES during rising markets, and sells it to protect downside based on VIX, TA, and various fundamental data. As of middle of last week, the bot has fully hedged in all brokerage accounts, and has switched to cash in all futures and tax advantaged retirement accounts. With Jan 2022 results so far, the max drawdown has increased to -2.99%. To all of our bot subscribers, please remember that the average holding period is a couple of weeks, so you should have at least a couple multiple of the initial margin requirement in your account for holding positions overnight. Alternatively, you can replicate the bot trades using SPY, and hedge by selling the appropriate amount of MES during downturns for a market neutral portfolio, avoiding capital gains. Will be posting updates for the next trade we take to buy the market.
Started off 2022 not so hot. 2021 was a great bull market year, and rotating between fully invested in indices and cash greatly out performed a buy and hold strategy. So far, we held onto our long positions from the end of last year, and closed them last week for approximately a 2% loss. Updates will be posted when the bot buys back in.
It is a swing bot, and typically holds positions for a couple days or even weeks if there is a strong trend. It remained long until just after 2pm central time today, where it closed on the ES position for a 124.25 points gain. +$6,212.5 per ES contract, or 1/10th of that per MES contract. We also use it in our non futures accounts like 401ks and brokerages for timing buying the dips on SCHG (or VOOG or SPY if you prefer). In 401k and Roths, you can sell the position. However in regular brokerage accounts, we recommend you hedge by selling the appropriate amount of MES to avoid capital gains. Currently all cash until the next long.
Bought back in a couple minutes after 9am central. 100% long again. About the same price as yesterday's exit.
We don't see anywhere the size that is traded, and also the account size is unknown. So it is impossible to know the performance. 56K says nothing. Can be a 100K account or a 10MM.
For 2021, those were the results starting the year with 50k USD, and every trade was 1 ES contract. Based on max historical drawdowns, the minimum recommended account balance is 5k per MES or 50k per ES contract. If you want more reward for more risk, drop the account balance in half to 2.5k per MES or 25k per ES contract. However keep in mind that positions are held overnight, so you need to have the initial margin per contract in order to avoid margin calls. 2.5k per MES or 25k per ES doesn't exceed the max historical drawdown for margin calls, but the future can be different so be prepared with additional funding cash if you decide to go with the higher leverage. For reference, NinjaTrader continuum margin requirements for holding positions overnight is: $11,880 per ES contract $1,188 per MES contract https://ninjatrader.com/PDF/ninjatrader_futures_contract_details.pdf
I get a notification on my phone when the trade is executed in NinjaTrader, and try to update the post shorty after.