the overnight rally in the futurres is a pump in order to inject some optimism. If markets fall heavily today we crash on monday. Expect lots of pumping today to end the week on a good note. This is also true for the EUR and GBP crosses vs the USD where we see some buying this morning.
For my indicator setups on daily situation looks identical to that one after 7/25. Just I do not know if today will play scenario 7/28 or 7/29 but it seems that MM and PPT plans up to the end of year: make a base somewhere between 900-1000 /850-1100/, calm the situation, lower vix, etc. They will try hardly to avoid the crash parabolic down moves. I do not know if those plans can get reality but looking on economy I think that any big rally over 1100 will just be starter of even bigger fall by next leg down. Hence plateau like the only probable positive scenario. Where we will go from there I do not know, it is well possible that in January we will fall somewhere bellow 800. But this will be next year job and market will have the whole year to "correct" this leg down.
If we get by tommorrow without a disaster the lows for 2008 are in. Holidays are near and selling pressure will power down fast. Its been a wild painful year for millions of americans and they just want some rest from this year long onslaught.I have noticed no panic the last 2 days and this can be reversed to the upside fast. 2009 is tough to call as people desperately want to latch onto obama and be optimistic which could cause a bounce in jan 2009. Also every wall street shill will be calling the bottom of housing 100 times in 2009 to get the excitement going.
Time is your greatest healer. The longer it takes for us to go down the greater the chances more favorable news will creep out. Hence the short side is still the best play but there will be some for the longs as-well.
25/26 is 38% pivot, 31 is 50% and 38 is 61%. I sense a nice sell-off before we get to the 8:30am jobs report.
I think they are running up market so it can fall after /starting short before/ numbers 20-30 points without any danger for swing trends. My setups point to test 1000 region again in close future. How quickly and from where the rally will start this is the big question but my guess is that latest on WednesdayThursday we will be close to 1000. In recent volatility we need just 24 hourst to get there. However if numbers will be real disaster than big question is how much is in fact calculated in from recent 2 days selloff.
So far the 38% 25/26 held. The sell off is a little on the slow side. If we don't get some downside momentum I am leaning on that they may decide to fade the report and run it up prior.
Is that what you see saliva? and when you look only a few posts higher....... I will be traveling, week to week, city to city throughout the globe. Will be taking two laptops.... As for ES, down down down.... 770....then 550...
look at the state of things around, scan the newswires for the last month or two, and for the past week, its a major contracture in the global economy. and it hasnt even started getting cold in the northeast yet, so imagine the dismal employment report and the cold of the winter biting down onto the bones of the emaciated american consumer, what do you think that will do to equity prices, we havent seen the worst of it... if Paulson is running a 700 billion dollar plunge protection fund, then he has to trade the fund like any astute trader, sell the tops of the ATR and buy the bottoms of the ATR ...1000-830... and consolidate it in this range for the next few months buying time for some positive news to creep in. If he gets bogged down holding the bag at the top of the ATR hes out of the game. the vix fractal is indicating a range bound market between 90-50... on the vix, when VIX spikes to new levels historically there is a period of consolidation with multiple spikes approaching the old highs. 30 year bond yields will stay below 4% for the next few years, kind of like Japanese credit markets. USD/JPY will stay below 100 with the bond markets intimation of the state of things. what are the beneficial effects of this engineered situation: 1) conservatization of the american consumer 2) lower energy prices 3) lower credit yields 4) better financing of us government debt 5) russian markets imprisoned 6) outflow of wealth mitigated 7) buyers and holders of US debt, have a multiyear period to unload slowly over time at historical high prices. if you look at all this game theory implies, that the major multi trillion dollar market players will kill this market into submission, to guarantee the above plays out for a longer period then usual.
With my simple minded thinking - if I was big money I would want to suck every last ounce of retail money into the market. Obama can be the catalyst - Change you can believe in