read my other post, sold every stock acquired since 2023, keep postions acquired before that, more than 50% in cash now. i am not playing the upside, will enter tmf/tlt in full. equity risk premium is not worth the risk. there is an wsj article about that this weekend. https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-valuations-investors-76d1daa6?mod=finance_lead_story Just How Expensive Are Stocks After All the Ups and Downs? We Check the Math. For example, investing in bonds after any month that the excess CAPE yield averaged less than 1.75%—and stocks otherwise—would have yielded a real annualized return of 6.6%, or 0.5 percentage point more than holding stocks the entire time. https://en.macromicro.me/charts/27100/us-shiller-ecy
Heads up, ASX going deeper into the red as the trading day progresses, except for gold. That is not a good omen for US Monday.
It's funny hearing you guys describe the market activity movement....your rationale, logic, expectations, trades, bets, assumptions, misc etc, ,, Further dissection necessary, blanket generalized statement movements are no good
we may disdain the downgrade as no news but the foreign investors are very sensitive about these sovereign ratings. they can choose not to participate in us market while we cannot. just read the economist and ft vs wsj, a complete different worldview. 10y is up 2.4%, over 4.5% now.
plan worked. got under 5900 and ripped! Lots more higher to go i think, but hoping i can get in cheaper and that it won't just run away without me lol