ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. mervyn

    mervyn

    read my other post, sold every stock acquired since 2023, keep postions acquired before that, more than 50% in cash now. i am not playing the upside, will enter tmf/tlt in full. equity risk premium is not worth the risk. there is an wsj article about that this weekend.


    https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-valuations-investors-76d1daa6?mod=finance_lead_story
    Just How Expensive Are Stocks After All the Ups and Downs? We Check the Math.
    For example, investing in bonds after any month that the excess CAPE yield averaged less than 1.75%—and stocks otherwise—would have yielded a real annualized return of 6.6%, or 0.5 percentage point more than holding stocks the entire time.
    https://en.macromicro.me/charts/27100/us-shiller-ecy
     
    #5611     May 18, 2025
  2. themickey

    themickey

    Heads up, ASX going deeper into the red as the trading day progresses, except for gold.
    That is not a good omen for US Monday.
     
    #5612     May 19, 2025
  3. It's funny hearing you guys describe the market activity movement....your rationale, logic, expectations, trades, bets, assumptions, misc etc, :confused:,,o_O Further dissection necessary, blanket generalized statement movements are no good
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2025
    #5613     May 19, 2025
  4. tring L 5906 here on the mini swing account
     
    #5614     May 19, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  5. mervyn

    mervyn

    out at the clock, as soon as london opens. i am good for this trade.
     
    #5615     May 19, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  6. mervyn

    mervyn

    we may disdain the downgrade as no news but the foreign investors are very sensitive about these sovereign ratings. they can choose not to participate in us market while we cannot. just read the economist and ft vs wsj, a complete different worldview.

    10y is up 2.4%, over 4.5% now.
     
    #5616     May 19, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  7. covering here

    upload_2025-5-19_14-57-49.png
     
    #5617     May 19, 2025
    ElCubano and Picaso like this.
  8. Picaso

    Picaso

    Nice. :fistbump:

    I didn't see this market going up today. Maybe I shouldn't have put V-man on ignore :D :p
     
    #5618     May 19, 2025
    theapprentice likes this.
  9. plan worked. got under 5900 and ripped! Lots more higher to go i think, but hoping i can get in cheaper and that it won't just run away without me lol
     
    #5619     May 19, 2025
    Picaso and Wide Tailz like this.
  10. mervyn

    mervyn

    $250k tmf for now
     
    #5620     May 19, 2025