Home > General Topics > Journals > ES Journal - 2017/2018

ES Journal - 2017/2018

  1. Range bound markets and a market trying to establish a top not conducive to long term trend trading IMO.
     
  2. Long 84.75, stop 82.75
     
  3. Flat 87
     
  4. Short 91.5, stop trigger 95.5
     
  5. Flat 86.25
     
  6. Nice trade.
     
  7. Thanks. Plan trade...trade plan. As my mentor always told me....dumb monkey pushing buttons. Took me 10+ years of huge PL swings to recognize this the only way that allows me to take emotion out of equation.
     
  8. Afternoon trade to be closed MOC or before.
    Long 2387.25 Initial stop 2377.50
     
  9. Sleepy day in index Futuresville.
     
  10. Boring to watch, but it's just building a base for the next rally to new highs
     
  11. Limit sell entered at 2389.00
     
  12. Filled at 2389.00 late day for 1.75 pt gain.
     
  13. es.png
     
  14. esd.png
     
  15. Long 2389.00. Initial stop (mental for afterhours) 2374.00
     
  16. My system shows new all time highs this week.
     
  17. most everyone is selling volatility.. June expiry coming up fast.. 2333 strike straddle.. yielding huge returns.
     
  18. new highs this week
     
  19. What does this mean directionally? They are selling 2333 strike calls and puts expiring in June?
     
  20. No in general, volatility is being sold,.. ideally 2333 zone (swing low) offered a good premium. Selling 2333 puts and calls would have been ideal.
     
  21. Short 91.5, stop trigger 95.5
     
  22. Thanks for clarification
     
  23. Flat 94.5
     
  24. Long 2395.5
    stop at 2388.5
     
  25. looking for 2405 today to cover
     
  26. covering here at 2402
    It could easily shoot up another 15 points here, but just hoping for a small retrace to get back in long
     
  27. Limit sell entered at 2413.50
     
  28. Bid 2391...come and get me algos
     
  29. Do I get long now, or do I wait for a pullback first (which might not happen so I risk missing the fun)

    Hmmm.....decisions, decisions.
     
  30. Do both. Get long now, and add more in the unlikely event that it goes against you. Either way, you'll make money
     
  31. Cancel bid and wait for open
     
  32. Limit sell removed. Let it run
     
  33. Tempting drop there
    L 2397.5
     
  34. bottom likely in
     
  35. Short 98.75, stop trigger 2401.50
     
  36. 5 point bounce so far
    Nasdaq has COMPLETELY recovered it's drop with interest!! Amazing display of strength from the bulls
     
  37. Flat 92.25
     
  38. Seems 5th wave completed on daily from 2322.75 low...now can it hold. Offering 92.5...come and get em.
     
  39. Cancelled
     
  40. Long 2375.25. Initial stop 2367.00
     
  41. Stopped for loss of 8.5 pts
     
  42. Long 2367.00 initital stop 2349.00
     
  43. Long 63.5, stop trigger 53
     
  44. Shorts have been a slot machine today...not a good day to pick reversals.
     
  45. Move is overdone and likely over here in the 2258 area.
     
  46. volprofile.png
     
  47. sres.png
     
  48. Is the Gap on the daily closed yet? :D
     
  49. daily.png
     
  50. %%
    That's a fake gap+ it did close, closed down. .[on TGT] LOL. Long term buy; but ES,SPY closed below 50day e moving average.Usually that's buy to cover or buy to open open; but looks like its going down some more, not a prediction.
     
  51. Continuing Long here. Stop mental for overnight. Pricing currently 2362.50
     
  52. Mueller news took the energy out of the trade... rest of the session plus future sessions will be market makers working it back up. Anyone with tight stops will be thrown off by intermittent intraday spike downs.
     
  53. Highly likely
     
  54. Japanese GDP came in stronger than expected.. carry unwind, pressures dollar .. raises Gold/Bonds.. removes stimulus.

    Might be used to hit stops further down. This news is counter balance to Mueller news.
     
  55. Too much information
     
  56. Stopped 61.5 last night so I could sleep.
     
  57. In 5th wave down on 60 min. Going to keep bottom feeding with tighter stops
     
  58. Long 48.25, stop trigger 43.25
     
  59. Flat 54.5
     
  60. Continuing long here with hard stop at 2347.00. Pricing is currently 2364.00
     
  61. For intermediate term moves.. with the first move over a certain STD on daily the move manifests with usually 2 successive down drafts on daily.

    Critical for today to close with a huge reversal of yesterday's move.
     
  62. Long 57, stop trigger 52.25
     
  63. @Maverick74

    since you chose to pick on him, how have your recent trading recents been going? I've tried to find this mystery thread that you've the king of for the past 8 years but can't find anything recent on it.

    and for the record, I had a decent March, got destroyed in April, and a breakeven plus a few bucks so far in May.
     
  64. Algo you better makes some $ this month before your off to Band Camp for the summer.
     
  65. No shit....April was awful. Although a camp away for awhile sounds pretty decent....could it be a nude beach camp where I can just sit around and drink fruity drinks and star at ta ta's all day? That sounds better than band camp.
     
  66. Out 59.75
     
  67. Why awful ?
     
  68. Now if I can only get myself to hold for my original targets!!! Was 66.75
     
  69. Had the worst consecutive losing streak in the previous 5 years in April...just a bad luck month. Didn't monetarily hurt that bad, because I had a really decent winner in there right before the bad streak.
     
  70. 1hour.png
     
  71. 240t.png
     
  72. daily.png
     
  73. @Spectre2007 How about some annotations on each chart if possible? Would like to know what I am looking at. A bit of a line overload for me... Thanks.
     
  74. its riding the line on the daily. Shorter timeframe charts looking for pop higher..vol profile on side.. shows equilibrium levels.. and outliers at the narrow points of bell curves. Outliers (narrow points) on bell curves is where entries should occur.

    Narrow point of bell curve(outlier) combined with a line break or adherence confirms a high probability entry where price has slippage into the next equilibrium level. Quiet markets tend to drift up, and mix in the low vol trade.. higher probability for long entries.
     
  75. EMA signaled long. And price went to the nearest outlier.
     
  76. outlier in relation to 1 hr.
     
  77. Short 79.75, stop trigger 85
     
  78. Orderflow slippage times.. 2:00am (European open) 10:30am (bankers from hamptons get settled into desk) ....2:00pm (post lunch clean up trades)..
     
  79. closest outlier at tick level(line)
     
  80. Looks like they've got the downside out of their systems now. Hopefully back to business as usual!
     
  81. Staying long here from 2367.00 We're at 2381.00 currently. I don't see an obvious reason to sell yet
     
  82. frontrunning ETF or futures?
     
  83. first sell on etf..
     
  84. blast off!
     
  85. Mental stop into close
     
  86. The only thing standing between us and new highs now is 2389.00----if we can break that in the next few days or even today, we'll have smooth sailing to the highs.
     
  87. zones/outliers/lines/sr ~same thing.
     
  88. short 85, stop 90
     
  89. Long 2388.5
    Initial target is the gap fill above which I would bet my house on getting filled!
     
  90. In lieu of any terror attacks or silly political news surprises, we should just keep on going up
     
  91. Abc corrective wave on 60 min...time will tell
     
  92. Closed at 79.50
     
  93. You have a ton of patience...hats off to you
     
  94. Comey agrees to testify in senate after Memorial day...there's your silly political event :)
     
  95. Limit long 2378.50, stop loss 2374.50 profit target 2388.50

    Limit short 2388.50 stop loss 2392.50 profit target 2378.50 ( long is more probable)
     
  96. The only reason even for the limit short is the consolidation phase secondary to political turmoil. Otherwise would just stick with only longs.

    Upper and lower bounds 2395.5/2388.5. It's attempting to head into upper market market profile.
     
  97. Trending low volatility markets most always head back up to the highest market profile in attempts at range expansion.
     
  98. looks like they're buying it! :)
     
  99. Stopped out.. on short
     
  100. stick to the long side, chaps!
     
  101. Something new and different....
     
  102. Log: -4 points 5/22/17

    long 2388, TP 2395 SL 2381
     
  103. Prior day levels. ES loves to test prior day levels.
     
  104. In addition to your cheerleading would be great to see some trades posted.
     
  105. +7 points (long)(playing market profile/prior day levels)

    Log: +3 points net (5/22-5/23)
     
  106. Limit short 2398, TP 2395, SL 2401

    Limit long 2390, TP 2393, SL 2387
     
  107. Minimum risk parameters:

    1:1 reward:risk (size of profit target to size of stop loss)

    Generally, one should only look for longs in this climate. Shorts have a higher probability with new range expansion ( greater than 2400 ).

    1st order trades are the trades you can think of. 2nd order trades are trades where the first order trade is used as stop loss but in this instance is used as a entry. Basically the general markets stop loss becomes your entry. So in today's trades, 2nd order trade would be:

    Short 2401 SL 2404 TP 2398, if you want to be even extra careful 3rd order trade, do the same thing.

    Short 2404 SL 2407 TP 2401
     
  108. Short bumped up to 2nd order short

    2401 2398 2404
     
  109. L 2396
     
  110. Surprising didn't bust through 2398 stops to spill over 2400. All signs there. So most likely flushing out longs/stops at lower value zone 2388.
     
  111. Choppy garbage..
     
  112. order in to take profit at 2402
     
  113. Grinding back up
     
  114. Long didn't hit, constant algorithmic grind higher. All trades removed, waiting for 14:00 time to let it develop.
     
  115. Long 2396 SL 2390 TP till close
     
  116. 2398 out

    Log: 5/22-23 (long)(algorithmic grind higher)

    Net +5 plus commissions (-4, +7, +2)
     
  117. Evening session trade tonight

    Limit long: 2396 TP 2398 SL 2394
     
  118. Was short 78.75 and stopped out at 98...13 pts higher versus original stop. That's what I get for breaking rules.
     
  119. Configure your software for hard stops. It's extremely easy to get married to position. It's one of the hardest habits to break that I went through.
     
  120. Filled
     
  121. Agree. It's first time for me in a long time breaking the stop rule. I have rules for a reason.

    Good thing is not a big drawdown and can get back to business.
     

  122. The reason you cut them short, the market is doing something unexpected or diverged from your model. When it diverges, it essentially can have major contrary slippage. The model your using may be similar to others, so your position fails other positions are failing, and it forces a cascade of exits. So can be excellent entry versus a exit.

    It's much harder to make back the slippage. Stop losses signify model failure. And when they get triggered have immense informational value.
     
  123. Good insight and lesson learned. Not sure what I was thinking at the time. A stop is a stop and is there for a reason.

    Since I started posting on May 3rd....gross +14.5 pts, net +12.5...this last trade cost me 18.5 pts+comms...expensive tuition
     

  124. Can you explain how a mental stop works ?

    Do you stay up 24 hours a day to monitor it ?
     
  125. Profit target hit, net +7

    ES seems to have a quantitative moving average of behavior. Previous behavior implies future behavior, till an event breaks the behavior. The new behavior becomes factored into future price patterns. Only thing one can do is create model of existing behavior.
     
  126. FOMC meeting minutes 14:00 today, only event to work off of up to and post.
     
  127. There is risk that 2392/88 is touched.

    Limit short 2398 TP 2393 SL 2403

    Edit: not filled yet,..

    Upper zone 2402

    Lower zone 2392
     
  128. prior session levels
     
  129. increasing target to 2405
     
  130. The DOW boys got the memo and know what to do. ES is being a girl at the moment.
     
  131. Based on this DOW move, expecting ES to follow suit fairly soon - changing profit target a little higher to 2408 and am off out to visit a friend for a bit. Back later. Good luck
     
  132. ES for me not worth trading. If big banks and hedgies have ceased trading activities, then there's nobody to jump on board with. Buy in 401k and ride it on up. Daytrading the futures markets is slowly becoming a dying business at these vix levels.
     
  133. Algorithms are feedback looping the data back onto themselves. In essence its creating a bottleneck in decision making.
     
  134. Range chop set in a little early on this Fed day.
     
  135. Close active trade.

    2397.50 (+.50) (scratch) (removing position before FOMC)

    FOMC statement will be hawkish.
     
  136. Limit Sell 2400 (not hit yet) SL 2405 TP close of session
     
  137. Think we are setting up for new highs this afternoon . 2405+
     
  138. You have probability on your side, plus V chart pattern post consolidation, the high end of consolidation breaks and price drops back down. That's the repeating chart pattern.

    Problem is no one wants to short since most burned. It molds behavior patterns. And no one wants to buy the highs, so we end up being stuck from lack of fuel.
     
  139. yep
     
  140. Also rumor is Comey is going to give damaging spin to his May 3rd remarks. So liquidity on FOMC may be used to exit leveraged positions.
     
  141. We'll soon know..
     
  142. Starting line
     
  143. Back into the funnel.
     
  144. filled
     
  145. Dow flying up! Just waiting for the ES to do teh same!
     
  146. changing target to 2412 on that posted long. Can't ignore this Dow.
     
  147. Interesting algo/rule, if price above/below 14:00-14:15 price point, enter in the direction of the price. Similar to OR (opening range) strategy. Its the post lunch strategy.
     
  148. 2 points over 2 points under, will kill the most.
     
  149. The next phase up has began. 2450 in a store near you
     
  150. Going long here at 2403
    Expecting a ramp up tomorrow
     
  151. Short 2403.75, stop 2407.75
     
  152. Log: 5/22-23 (long)(algorithmic grind higher)

    Net +5 plus commissions (-4, +7, +2)

    Log: 5/24 (short) +.5 -2.0 net -1.5

    Total log: +5 -1.5 = 3.5 plus commissions

    failed to profit from sideways trade most of session, instead short post FOMC, MFE 1.5 rebounded past 14:00-14:15 pivot and retraced towards session close.
     
  153. Staying long. Current pricing 2403.00
     
  154. Limit sell 2409

    Weird Macro signals coming through.
     
  155. Sold healthy amount of ES on that run up for very long term positions, unfortunately trying to work in hedge is tough in evenings, but what happens on average is HFT often times creates this and they are few in making money on these spikes. First one to the party do well and those late are buying into my and many other shorts, I don't like doing this is USA evening session though cause option play is slow.
     
  156. Filled
     
  157. Out 7.75
     
  158. :)

     
  159. nice stuff! You have a crystal ball. Since we are at your profit target does that mean you think we go down now? Or do you just expect a small pullback and then we continue up?
     

  160. 2407.50 out .. net 1.50


    Limit long 2405.75

    Cancel

    Short 2410
     
  161. Could be starting the run towards 2430 here
    long 2410
     
  162. Short 2410
     
  163. setting initial profit target at 2425
     
  164. Filled
     
  165. Prior day levels.
     
  166. +16 : Not just a 'cheerleader' :)
     
  167. I'm already long again, looking for 2425 initially.
    We have lots more rallying to go.
    If it does pullback here (which is very unlikely) it's just a good bying opportunity. I see us at 2500 medium term
     
  168. Limit 2408 cover

    Mod: filled 2408.25
     
  169. It's more about FOMC ability to keep raising rates. They won't be able to unless equities keep punching higher. They are essentially purchasing the ability to raise rates. All is good scenario is being protected.

    When are equities not protected, when FOMC reaches its goal of short term rates. Risks are they derail the economy.
     
  170. 8/25 Net 3.25 (short)

    (only short entries, wedge creation in play upper bounds 2412, lower bound moves up over time.)

    Total Net: 6.75 plus commissions
     
  171. Limit long 2405.5

    Mod: 2407

    Mod: canceled trade pulled
     
  172. Limit long 2405.75

    Mod: Trade pulled

    Looks like flushing out longs. Stops in 2400 zone.
     
  173. Limit sell 2410

    Filled
     
  174. need to leave the office but first take profit area is 2425
     
  175. Holding this through Comey hearings (next week)

    NVDA negative on the day.

    Long SH 33.66 also
     
  176. out 2414

    will get back in long if it can get down to 2408
     
  177. nice. Can't imagine it getting all the way down to 2408 today though. Would need a bad piece of news or something
     
  178. Trying long ES here @ 2414
    I wanna join in on the fun
     

  179. MAE (heat) on trade will show that it's a trend day.
     
  180. weird drop. Getting oversold
     
  181. Bulls will step in here soon. Not sure what caused that fall
     
  182. More appropriately known as a correction.
     
  183. You don't want to be long when we pass 2440...
     
  184. they've stepped in
     
  185. On the long term. I wouldn't call a top till you see Vix spiking up as the market spikes up with it. This could go on for years.
     
  186. Copying eddie with the takeprofit limit order at 2425 and walking away.
     
  187.  
  188. look what other platforms show
     
  189. from CME website app
     
  190. And cash mkt pierced the line and closed below. I like your short position.
     
  191. Cash is king. Futures mkt plays games.
     
  192. I could have waited, for a better entry. I took over 7 points MAE(heat) today on it. A few cents on the SH short. Just sense markets getting tired. May consolidate at this level.. 1420-1400 for a bit. Whatever heat I took, I need the same amount of MFE or better. Bitcoin, plus June hike, politics, should consolidate the huge run up from 2344. Following weeks better clarity on Comey.
     
  193. Break below 2410 gives potential shorter time frame trend break.
     
  194. 2404 gap fill would be in play tomorrow
     
  195. expecting the mother of bounces soon.
     
  196. L 2410.25
     
  197. Should be pretty quiet, Friday before memorial. Most everyone starts weekend early. Quiet equity markets drift up.
     
  198. S 12.75, stop 14.75
     
  199. Flat 13.25
     
  200. Should just float up today
     
  201. Flat 14
     
  202. crazy how everybody is deathly afraid to short. Price action that should fall just goes flat, and then drifts on up
     

  203. Been trained through getting burned. If you think of it this way. Go long at any point within the last 7 years. Eventually it comes back and you just need enough capital to weather drawdown.

    Calculate average swing deviation to the downside. Wait patiently and get long.
     
  204. Depends on your time frame, I get long and short signals most days and don't care one way or the other.
     
  205. I stopped shorting the indicies a good few years back. My account has thanked me! Long only. It goes up over time. It has too. Shorts are always low probability trades - even daytrades
     
  206. That's right, I think.
    Most people I know who trade as a hobby do very well, and they aren't even aware you can 'short'.
    They've all done better than me, but I think that's because I made the mistake of trying to go both long AND short. Shorts tend to always cost me money
     
  207. If shorts cost you money, the defect is in the trade plan and not the short. Much is dependent on targets and stops. I am a singles hitter so my targets are modest and stops more modest. As a result, I just take intraday momentum swings and don't find much in the way of longs outperforming shorts. Even in a bull market there are trend days down. On those days I get mostly if not exclusively short signals.
     
  208. Long here at 2413
    TP 2433
     
  209. Unsurprisingly sluggish pre-holiday trade
     
  210. %%
    Good time frame points;
    I care about the trend/ trend friend more than the counter trend[ called a correction, or pullback..... in an uptrending bull market]; but some market$ have Very good counter-trends.

    NYSE maybe more orderly than NasdaQQQ...........................................................NOT a prediction. Most system profit$ in countertrend$ are not@ all ,near the trend profit$
     
  211. %%
    Good pointsBL20; but if it takes 3 years, or much more / bear market to come back, we maybe should aim for more .The US stock market has been uptrending for 200+ years, but that is not a prediction.
     
  212. Boring. Probably gonna just drift up slowly or flatline. Think i'm gonna call it a day and wait for the ramp up next week.
    Have a good weekend
     
  213. Drawdown becomes a function of time and degree. How many days has a 60 point move from the most recent high taken to revert back to the peak. So if you have a 60 point move to the downside. What is MFA and MAE after entry 60 points from the most recent peak.
     
  214. %%
    Sounds like we agree on the importance of trends;
    20 year SPY is still uptrending, OK,some may want better than a 7 year drawdown. But drawdowns may not be losses. Like Comagnum said ,most investors make money in the US stock market....................................................................................................
     
  215. Yesterday price slipped towards the close. Let's see what happens today.
     
  216. This has turned into a long only -buy n rot cheerleading thread, atleast at the Super Terrific Happy Hr you get some splaining and insight.
     
  217. Just like the price action, overall most are doing well, I've taken some shorts. Some worked out some didn't. Generally I like to short or mean revert trade at high end of ATR.

    In a upward trending market, if you don't scalp out a short, it eventually turns into a loser. The price action is caught in narrow bands most of the RTH. There is a huge timing event approaching. I'd rather see guys making money only taking longs in this atmosphere than loose trying to get a precise short in place.

    "The price action is scalping out its own shorts, and trending it's longs."
     
  218. That's actually quite impressive and a testament to the traders here! You say it like it's a bad thing.
    On most trading forums, everyone is getting killed trying to short this thing.
    Most people in this thread understand that we are in a mad bull trend and the only way is up, and that 'long only' trading makes sense and that shorting isn't too smart (unless you're trying to scalp for 2 ticks or something)

    If we know that we'll likely be 50 handles or so higher within a few weeks (or possibly much much sooner) then buy 'n' rot makes sense
     
  219. Surely you don't believe corrections in either direction average "2 ticks". A day trader shouldn't care whether it's a bull market or not, each day has its own personality and segments of direction. In a bullish environment, there are likely to be more long signals but it would be costly for a professional day trader to not take the shorts. I get "bull" and "bear" markets on the majority of days regardless of what the daily is doing. Additionally, in any environment often the best trading days are corrective to larger trends.
     
  220. Asian session is trying to front run European open, with the Greek news of possible default.
     
  221. S 12.75
     
  222. Lets see if them bulls step in soon and ramp us all teh way back up
     
  223. Levels

    Bounced off 2013 consolidation zone, rapidly came down to first support at 2408, next support is 2404, 2394.
     
  224. Today is the poster child for Summer doldrums.
     
  225. Stopped 14
     
  226. Short term floor looks to be in in the 2406 area.
     
  227. This entire year has been the poster child for Summer doldrums :)
     
  228. For the ES yes, I had to switch to the NQ for day trades.
     
  229. You were in profit for 4.75 points max. Why didn't you take profit or move your stop loss? Just curious.
     
  230. I trade 60 min timeframe. Tgt was 2505.5.
     
  231. Still experimenting with C2 NT7 interface. If you enter a order in C2 and still have NT7 running. The NT7 interface immediately try's to sync the order with C2. The last order in day trading tracker was immediately canceled out by NT7 interface. You see a quick short and cover.

    Kinda surprised how fast it syncs NT7 and C2.

    Today's action, it looks like most everyone is trying to play breakout, the consolidation zone range is wide enough it's killing both sides.

    2414-2410/08
     
  232. Market will move in direction of max pain. I am personally looking for pullback to buy before breaking to new highs.
     
  233. 3 ES gaps unfilled below at the moment. See 30 min chart RTH.
     
  234. Do you mean the 5/19, 5/22, and 5/25 gaps?
     
  235. Yes
     
  236. S 11.75
     
  237. I preset to short ES at 2412 tonight, but when I saw the very bullish bar on 1min chart at 20:52 ET, I canceled the short order.
     
  238. I know this is not YM thread but it filled 5/25 gap today.
     
  239. Looking like another decent move up is on the cards again, soon.
     
  240. Which one of u told that nasdaq to jump when it was standing up against the cliff ? lol
     
  241. Waiting for a hell of a rebound, lol
     
  242. Time to buy. If wrong, average down next 1000 points
     
  243. Flat 4.00
     
  244. Long 2404.75 Initial stop 2398.00
     
  245. S 9.25
     
  246. If they don't reverse the negative price action, it will spill over into Asian session and European session.
     
  247. Flat 5.00
     
  248. What I've noticed over the years, if the SP500 doesn't deviate significantly beyond a certain threshold in AM window, it quickly reverts back up. The deviation in AM window has to break metrics to subdue the buy programs. It's only down 4 something points.
     
  249. S8.5
     
  250. bladerunner2049

    2049.png

    bladerunner2050

    2050.png
     
  251. Flat 6.25
     
  252. Out at 2407.25 for a gain of 40.25 pts.
     
  253. Out on this day trade at 2408.00 for gain of 3.25 pts
     
  254. S 9.25
     
  255. Nice to have some range expansion after a couple of sluggish days.
     
  256. Wondered what the hell teh market was playing at there for a while, but it came to it's senses soon enough.
    See if Dem T-day boys can move us north tomorrow
     

  257. How did you manage this magic trade when ES traded 2344.5 ?

    Trade disregarded for lack of credibility
     
  258. Quite simply, he went long at 2367 where you should have covered your short... Winners and loser...
     
  259. You may recall that I only use hard stops during regular trading hours. I do this because the market is too thin outside of RTH and your stop can be taken out without regard to what is actually happening in the market. --And this is a classic example of why I employ this strategy. 2349 never traded during RTH. Thank you for the question--Izzy
     
  260. It was a gamble. Sell offs never started in the past outside RTH?
     
  261. This is a long term odds game. History and experience have shown me that unless day trading outside of RTH, stops are somewhat meaningless to what the market is actually doing . Reminder--cash rules futures. ---Please look back at action afterhours during London bombing in July 2005 for evidence of what I speak of.---
     
  262. I would feel confident in saying that there hasn't been a globex selloff that didn't setup in RTH the day before.
     
  263. Are you confident in spotting all sell-off setups?
     
  264. So what you are saying is that no selloff has ever started outside RTH?
     
  265. An absolute?--No idea----but what I'm saying is that over the long haul, I do better by not having a hard stop outside of RTH.
     
  266. That's clear enough looking at stock market performance over the last 100 years, but that's not reeeeaaaalllllyyyy short term trading based on your own criteria set out in this journal :)

    FWIW there were selloffs that started outside US RTH, whether they were selloffs is a matter of perspective of course, some would have called them buying opportunities, others would have referred to them as blips & others would have jumped.
     
  267. Long 2420.5
    (adding to winning position, like they say to do)

    I see us going to 2500 rather soon
     
  268. Seems almost unfair how easy it is to make money in this market for a long time now! haha
    my neighbour started trading some time back and his 'system' is to go long when the RSI o the 5m gets oversold and then too add to the position every 4 ES points or so in the unlikely event it goes against him, and he's making bank! I want to get involved but worry about being 'late to the party', but the fact that i'm worried about that probably suggests that the good times will carry on for a lot longer yet!

    Hope you're all killing it. Stay away from them shorts!! :)
     
  269. ^^
    Join the party! Any pullback will be relatively small. No more than 50 or so ES points, and we have much higher numbers to hit over the coming months. 2530 maybe?
     
  270. Usually a 2ES point drop is good for a long to new highs on these sorts of days, so may play them bounces for scamp trades if we get any such pullbacks
     
  271. Systems keep saying long stocks and short Indexes/hedged, very long systems says keep going higher.
     
  272. daytrade LONG here at 2426.5 - target 2439
     
  273. [​IMG]

    I have it on good authority that 2477 is now 'confirmed' - Could look to add some serious longs on any pullbacks if the market is kind enough to give a pullback. Seems unlikely, though
     
  274. Flat 24.5
     
  275. Changing target to 2446.5 - should get that today as we are looking super strong in the globex. Everything is flying up
     
  276. I'm liking that chart.
    I'm going long here @ 2437
    Will close it at your target
     
  277. Long June 2429.00 Initial stop 2387.00
     
  278. Also, day trade long here 2429.50 Initial stop 2419.00
     
  279. Looking to clear the big hurdle of today at 2433.25. Need that for legs. We're at 32 right now
     
  280. The lows are likely in. Hoping to get us towards that 2477 now. Not today, I don't imagine, but soon
     
  281. Initial clearance has now occurred.
     
  282. Goodness Gracious Sakes Alive!---Looks Like We Gots Ourselves a Convoy!
     
  283. Have one of your multi alias minions post a real fill from a real account.
     
  284. ??????
     
  285. this pullback should be good for a long
    Will buy 2434 area if it gets down there
     
  286. Limit Sell entered 2441.25----we're at 2438.50 now
     
  287. Missed the pullback
    Long 2439
     
  288. Looks like it want another leg up. See how high they can close it for the weekend. I'm guessing no higher than 2450
     
  289. Holding this into next week.

    Later
     
  290. This was closed MOC at 2436.75 for a gain of 7.25 pts.
     
  291. London bridge might rain on the parade gents...
     
  292. I was wondering what effect, if any that would have on the markets.

    I think the market will ignore the terrorist attacks and just be business as usual, so expecting another decent up week.

    If it does gap down, i'm sure they'll buy it back up heavily
     
  293. Do people really think a bus attack will actually derail the market? It's slightly possible there could've been selling if it happened during market hours, but people will have had basically a day to process it. Honestly, that attack has no affect on companies. It's like saying the market should go down every time there is a murder. If the market comes down, it'll be because the market has been going up nonstop for over 2 weeks.
     
  294. AGREE
    DO NOT AGREE
     
  295. Looking for this to blast off this week
     
  296. Long 27.25
     
  297. Nice entry. I'm buying Dax and dow here
     
  298. Flat 29.5
     
  299. Here we go. That was the bears fun for the week lol
     
  300. Only way to trade highly leveraged product. (stop losses) Just have to hope stops are kept on server side. If infrastructure fails on your end, at least stops will be live.
     
  301. Remaining Long here at 2427.75. No obvious reason to sell here.
     
  302. Short 28.75
     
  303. Day trade long 2429.50--Initial stop is 2427.00
    Will take profit at 2436.00
     
  304. Stopped 30.5
     
  305. Short 32
     
  306. Bombshell, Comey says Trump is not under investigation. Preliminary testimony released.
     
  307. Flat 33.75
     
  308. slice and dice
     
  309. %%
    It could for some because like Art Cashin said ''panic sellers never win'' LOL Wise words; agree.
    Planned sellers can win-panic sellers never win. I like Art Cashin, more than CNBC[UBS-NYSE]even though 1987 seems to be on his mind all the time;but i am not a mind reader LOL
    You last sentence was a bit broad brushed, Ben , but mostly true..........
     
  310. I agree. I was just a little annoyed that people who are bearish are hanging on to any little thing that could conceivably bring the market down. The event is a tragedy but in no way affects the broad markets.

    I think the market (mainly the Nasdaq) is being irrational with how it just keeps going up and up, but I'm not trying to fight it or calling tops. The only way I'd play the short side is by shorting NQ vs ES at 1:1 or against the Russel2k once it comes to CME. Other than that, longer term shorts on equity indices is a dangerous game imo.
     
  311. Its very difficult to read this chart since its been downsized. Are you able to post a version with more resolution? The entries and exits are pretty much lost.
     
  312. 1) I draw out pivots based on common turns(peaks) or valleys. It stratifies the market.

    2) I play mean reversion at the higher and lower end pivots or support and resistance. I force myself to place the trades.

    3) Every trade has a stop loss

    4) Have other monitors and platforms that watch other indicators and markets. Some platforms have better indicators than others.

    5) Use global pivot, meaning if price is above that global pivot I try to stick to entries that enter the market going long.

    6) Use a auto trendline creator and also manually draw my trendlines.

    7) If I believe strongly in a trade, I will re enter after stop loss is hit at fixed intervals.

    8) Daily loss limit, if a stop loss is hit a second time consecutively. Than I am done for the day. At the periphery it only hits once usually.

    9) Try to judge if it's a range expansion market or will it try to stay within the stratification levels.

    10) Various levels of segregated price waves. The auto trendline creator picks up when a certain resolution of price is broken and generates a signal. Only the signals that are proximal to a stratified level are taken. Price usually goes from one level to the next, so profit targets end up being at the next level. Sometimes profit target can be 1 tick or 4 or more points.
     
  313. Worksheet Sep Futures

    Short Term Events(today)
    -- ECB 8:30am EST
    -- Comey

    Long Term Events(weeks)
    --FOMC meeting
     
  314. Trading Sep and Jun.
     
  315. Nice movement
     
  316. Plenty of movement on NQ today. Just wished there was more volume in NQ.....sometimes it makes fills difficult. But ES starting to pick up. Maybe a Vix of 11 would make it worthwhile to scalp once again !
     
  317. NQ June and Sept volume around 200k so far...very tradable. It is running fast this morning so have to be quick on execution.
     
  318. Didn't say it wasn't tradable. Have a tough time getting filled sometimes on over 10 contracts. Gotta stagger them at different price levels and thats more work than i prefer when need to be fast.
     
  319. Yep, can be an issue.
     
  320. Market orders working well.
     
  321. Expect 36-37s trade. Not too much so far, Comey.
     
  322. Post Lunch
     
  323. 2418 risk.
     
  324. How many trades a day do you average?
     
  325. Its based on the market, some days none. But a good market more than 15. If its too hard to read the market. Its best to stay away.
     
  326. Last trade was hard to take. Easily cascade to 2418.
     
  327. I could have let this run but following a systemized approach is prudent.


    Unless something new comes out, you should see consistent metered buy programs spill us over 2440 or to.
     
  328. Looking for one more dip below the wedge, clears out weak holders before ramping higher.
     
  329. ramp time up soon, surely
     
  330. L 2440
     
  331. Profit target is set at 2460. Have to go out now. Happy trading!
     
  332. Staying long here.
     
  333. Intermediate to long term tops are more likely when volatility returns and you have 20 point swings intraday consistently. Till then it's a low volatility crawl up.

    It will be extremely nice trading when it happens. The valuations have to be high enough it causes structural shifts, where the last buyer is sucked and the largest inventory holder seeks to monetize into other assets. Equities in essence are a second tier currency.

    You should see Vix rising as the market continues to go higher.
     
  334. How do you guys handle the contract roll over? Yesterday was Roll over date but June contract had more volume so I traded that and everything was as usual. Today September had more so I swapped to it but my levels were no longer valid because prices are just not the same between them two. I basically got creamed today.
     
  335. I always switch on the Friday as that is usually when the front month prints the higher volume. As a day trader, I don't care about the differential...just starts fresh.
     
  336. You need to get a feel for the next month before rollover and do your sheets before.
     
  337. Use 'merge back adjusted', for Sept ES the value should be -2.25 to Jun ES
    Values should be more than accurate enough for analysis on the merged contracts
     
  338.  
  339. Comparing the June and Sept contract you are absolutely right. My levels were off by about -2.25. Stupid rookie mistake cost me $600. Lesson learned. I am trying to figure out how to setup the roll over properly in Sierra chart now. Is there a point in time that the September contract will match the price of the June?
     
  340. S 2427.5 sep
     
  341. F
    Flat 28
     
  342. Done posting here. Too much going on at full time job to post every trade. Good luck to all and thanks for sharing.
     
  343. Staying long here with current pricing at 2418.75. We may be in the area of a nice short term buy here.
     
  344. Big volume this morning on the equity futures...the markets are boiling.
     
  345. Around this time Friday, rolled over.
     
  346. It's not a tf I trade but the 15 minute is short, has a triangle to resolve tho'.
     
  347. Before we see new high I am seeing test of at least 2400 and even possibly 2380.
     
  348. Odd rollover occurring during lunch interval.
     
  349. usually consolidation time
     
  350. coming to lower tl on tri
     
  351. It's going to take a little longer for this tri to resolve.
     
  352. let's see if this breaks it
     
  353. not yet
     
  354. clear air to low pivot tests now
     
  355. Day trade long 2419.00. Initial stop 2416.50
     
  356. Will take profit at 2427.00
     
  357. Good thing NasdaQQQ+ ES futures are not 100% correlated with SPY-SPXL-UPRO. I tightened up stops + got a profit /stopped out, even though it took much longer to exit than i thought..........................................Barchart reduced to 72% ES buy today;from 100% + 96% last week . Some can do better than thier opinion; like it anyway. QQQ is down big over 2 days may not mean much??
     
  358. Limit sell hit just before closing for gain of 8 pts.
     
  359. Day trade Long 2432.50 Initial stop 2422.00
     
  360. Will take profit at 2440.00 or close MOC
     
  361. Closed at 2436.25 for gain of 3.75 pts
     
  362. Long 2423.00 Initial stop 2410.50
     
  363. Out at 2434.75 for gain of 11.75 pts. --I still have the position long on.
     
  364. thread seems a bit dead now. I think the bull has killed everyone!
    Anyway. long here at 2428
    looks very cheap here
    Target 2440 area
     
  365. 2435 or more today, yes?
     
  366. Looks like ES oil, ES, SPY, SPXL,SSO ,QQQare going up again, even if they finish a few pennys down long term trend is still UP LOL . NOT a prediction, 2 minutes til close]
     
  367. Yeah, I think that's it for the bears for a while now. I don't see us really going down much in the following few weeks at least. Looking to ride this up back to new highs.
    Have a good weekend
     
  368. Staying long here
     
  369. getting there

    I'm gonna close half at 2477 and the rest closer to 2500
     
  370. L 2448
    target/TP 2468
     
  371. stoploss?
     
  372. Its the year 2000. Nobody has any stop losses in place.
     
  373. that's what we call a 'free money' trade, lol! Congratz on your future winnings :)
     
  374. I have ;)
     
  375. With the ES, stops are only for short trades :)
     
  376. Oh... the red and green lines. At first they simply looked like horizontal level lines since they travel across the entire length of the chart, but now I see the little squares which seem to appear at the same time of the entry. I understand that this trade will still net over 2x the risk, but its extremely gutsy with such a large stop and such a late entry. Also, given the large stop, the fact that its close to the previous low means that a dip just below that low could stop you out. In fact, you came within just a couple of points of being stopped out.
     
  377. All above is correct. I'm risking 2units on this bet to gain 5. Slightly below my usual x3 reward.
     
  378. Should see that 2477 target that was mentioned last week tomorrow
     
  379. Long 2445
     
  380. Day trade here. Long 2434.00 Initial stop 2431.00
     
  381. This is not a mental stop due to the short term nature of a day trade and the small size of the stop.
     
  382. Limit sell entered at 2437.00
     
  383. Swing trade long 2433.50. Initial stop 2423.25
     
  384. Bulls have gotten awfully quiet. Are the ones out there still waiting for the high 2400's? Do you ever go to sleep at night thinking one morning you will wake up and some blackswan will blow out your account in one day? Is it really worth trying to squeeze the last 1 or 2% out of this market?
     
  385. There is no down to the equities market, it's only up up up. Are you crazy? Down market, pfft. Not possible.
     
  386. They were saying this same thing a year or two ago.
    In actual fact, in any point in time one could raise this comment.
    No point thinking like this, otherwise one would forever be waiting for that 'perfect opportunity'.
    It's not about being reckless, neither being a scaredey pussy.
     
  387. It's all about risk management. As long as one understands their blow up risk value and sizes accordingly, one can be comfortable in their position and know if shit hits the fan, they live to trade another day.
     
  388. The last part IMO is crazy. Anything is possible. You do understand tail risk right?
     
  389. I would never be concerned about a 10% rally in the market in one day. I would be concerned about a 10%, or for that matter 20% move down in one day. That's why there are circuit breakers.
     
  390. i was joking
     
  391.  
  392. %%
    Its late in the cycle, JSSPMK,the best uptrends dont have that kind of sell volume. But on the other hand, weekly charts QQQ, SPY,ES look fine on weekly charts. barchart.com has ES rated as ''80% buy, down from 96% last month''.TGT is rated a 96% sell, from a 64% sell last month LOL
     
  393. Mkt trading a bit heavy right now. Definitely seems different versus other BTFD rallies. Has the feel of distribution. But then again, we've seen this before.
     
  394. Just waiting for new highs now. I think the turbulence looks over with now
     
  395. CORRECT
     
  396. Long 2443.75
    Target 2449.75
    Stop 2441.50

    And I got stopped out...
     
  397. 50% Naz provides support again

    Screenshot_20170626-164701.png
     
  398. Back up towards 2450 today, yes?
     
  399. I dunno. What are your thoughts?
     
  400. That's what I was thinking, but if today, it needs to happen soon.

    Might be that the LOD/HOD is in for today.
     
  401. Last couple days of the month will be interesting. I cannot imagine funds are underweight tech currently so can't see much buying pressure occurring. Maybe oil is straw that breaks camels back.
     
  402. Since Trump won there has not been a correction of more than 5%. That's not healthy. And bonds keep going up. One or the other is going to shit to bed this summer.
     
  403. NAZ ought to head upwards now.
     
  404. Since Es and Nq are behaving so much differently, I'm watching the Vanguard total stock market ETf, VTI. Have it in my long term holdings, and watching to see if 124.50 breaks and holds below. Its under right now but I want to see a few days trading under this level. Once it does, the raging bull will take a bit of a breather.

    Just my 2 cents and something else to look at.
     
  405. %%
    Good trend; not a prediction...............................................................................
     
  406. The bastards shook me out of my long :/
     
  407. Looking like a long here, pullback wise? but the daily b-bands setting up for a squeeze.
     
  408. short 18.5 stop 24.5
     
  409. The current RTH range at 26,75 is above what's normal lately, so I would be cautious with a short here unless you have a rationale for a sell-off at this point.

    Also, it's rare for moves of a certain magnitude to not retrace.
     
  410. Not a call, but there's an open gap at 2408. :)
     
  411. 2308
     
  412. 2 gaps below still not filled: 2379.5 and 2360.5. Not a prediction but very few expecting it going into a holiday although we managed to close back in the range.
     
  413. Why can't EVERY DAY be like today! I think you would have to be on drugs to not make money on a day like today! ES...hell I am sure any stock based asset would have worked... Range was Huge ..38 points on ES, those are the largest hi to low moves we have seen in a very long time, for ES back in Nov 2016. we even tested 2402 and I thought maybe we would crack 2400 but it held. and volume on the Sept CT was 2,300,000,,,, we haven't seen that kinda volume in a long time as well... and this is right in the middle of summer!

    nice day... hope you all rocked it! see ya
     
  414. Lots of action today. I run my automated trading system, which typically places a few ES trades a week. Today, it made 15 trades. Ended the day flat with the $3855 profit.

    [​IMG]
     
  415. I am not surprised by that at all...my average day for ES is 4.5 trades,,,today I had 11 ! ..
    now if I only knew we would go from 2440 to 2402 I could have saved myself alot of effort,, just one big short.... haha, wishfull thinking
     
  416. If I were to guess, I'd say yesterdays RTH low will hold for today and that we'll most likely end up positive today (30th of June).
     
  417. Stopped
     
  418. Might be seeing an inside day considering yesterday's huge range.
     
  419. %%
    I tend to lose money in sideways =slop=chop trends, which dont trend much a @ all/LOL On a tek trend like wed[ 20 20-hindsight] it looked like it was going down+ did for first half hour, NAS.I wish all uptrends followed 10 period moving average like they did on wednesday

    .Looks like ES,SPY + tek stocks are going up off 50 day moving average again ; not a prediction.Retail stocks like TGT are still bear trending
     
  420. Is the HOD in for today? I think not.
     
  421. %%
    Good gues$ LF; its a bull market you know. Not a prediction but still a good uptrend, above 50 day moving average[ SPY.......ES.......]JULY 3 , lunchtime. I use 50 ema; IBD [Investors Business Daily] uses 50 day simple moving average/200 dma
     
  422. Position trade Short 2421.75. Initial stop 2512.00
     
  423. %%
    IT[ counterTrend red candle-down ]set the monthly low for SPY..... which held,QQQ same ,except it went lower-LOL[Hindsight- Thur JUNE 29]Looks like the 50dma holds in ES, SPY.... for now; it went lower than 50 dma in QQQ..............................................................................

    Many of them do a sell in May + go away;
    i like a vacation as well as anyone, but i like work[trade-invest]better than a vacation......
     
  424. That's a large stop. You must see a large move down coming.
     
  425. No idea. I just set the stop outside what I percieve to be the noise.
     
  426. Just like bears, when bulls getting slayed they go completely silent.
     
  427. Holding short hier. Pricing currently 2410.25
     
  428. Shenanigans continue.
     
  429. %% Hardly ever happens in an uptrending bull market;
    10%/+ correction$ are fairly common, or @ least they used to be. TGT sector is an downTrending bear market for years .....NOT a prediction
     
  430. Volume on the light side today
     
  431. %%
    If i only got paid by volume only; i could wait till SEPT-JAN.but even then i most likely would study + trade trends.NOT a prediction
     
  432. Continuing short here.
     
  433. A closing near the level we are at now (2450 area), will negate the call and I will flip long MOC. --I will then calculate a stop on the downside.
     
  434. Flipped long 2460.50 Initial stop 2360.00
     
  435. I have flipped long at 2460.50. Loss of 38.75 pts.
     

  436. What are your metrics to determine this transition ?

    Seems strange to chase performance
     
  437. Trend followers buy high and sell higher. They also sell low and buy lower.
     
  438. No reason to sell yet.
     
  439. Projected measured move from 2016 low is 2470 and 2009 low is 2485. Unless we get some blow off move from FANG's earnings can't see where a huge extension is anywhere in near future until we get sizable pullback for reloading.
     
  440. NFLX beat on top line but missed on bottom line yet stock rallies 11% after hours. Wall street in dot com bubble mode again.
     
  441. This time it's different :D
     
  442. Right...LOL
     
  443. :cool:
    %%
    Good trend/trend$ comment.
    The cash S&P 500 market went doWn, from friday close 7-14-2017, to to 7-17-17, close; SPY went down 3 cents close to close. Using IBD[ Investors Business daily data ], that's the best the bears could do+ so its would not be a surprize to see the UPtrend, be a friend. Its a bull market; + when SPY crashed some below 50 day moving average , May 17, 172 million shares sell=no follow thru to downside/bear trend.....................................................................

    Retail stock TGT has bear trended doWn for so long [years] they finally got some upticks LOL; but main trend in TGT is still down.NOT a prediction.:cool:
     
  444. Day trade long 2467.75 Initial stop 2464.75
     
  445. Will take profit at 2476.00
     
  446. Stopped at 2464.50 for 3.25 pt loss
     
  447. Day trade Long 2464.00 Initial stop 2457.00
     
  448. Will take profit at 2476.00
     
  449. this will snap back and rally hard. Unsustainable drop
     
  450. BTFD. Until central bankers pull back, every dip should be bought.
     
  451. Trade was closed MOC at 2469.00 for gain of 5 pts
     
  452. I remain long here with pricing at 2477.00
     
  453. Continuing long here at 2476.50. Stop remains in place. In addition I will exit on a close under 2445
     
  454. hoping for a decent rally here
     
  455. We've a slight pullback here. Nothing obvious yet indicating reversal. Staying long hier.
     
  456. good game
     
  457. Day trade long 2463.50. Initial stop 2450.00
     
  458. Out at 2471.00 for 7.5 pt gain
     
  459. Played 54 holes today. Staying long hier.
     
  460. 54?!? That's quite a day, I played 9
     
  461. Got up early and played 3 different courses. I like to do that from time to time. I'm not good.
     
  462. Cool, I play almost every day at local club, usually only 9 holes though.
     
  463. It takes me 9 holes to get warmed up at my advanced age.
     
  464. Headed out in a few to play 18.
     
  465. I continue long hier. Same stop.
     
  466. Headed out to play 36. Long position continues intact.
     
  467. The ES has evidently decided to take August off for vacation. Five day range 14 points LOL.
     
  468. I have flipped short here at 2464.25 for a gain of 3.75 pts. Initial stop now 2512.00
     
  469. Sweet
     
  470. With pricing in the mid 2430s I am staying short for now
     
  471. have to imagine the mother of all rallies is on the way, but might have to wait until next week. Let's see how today pans out

    Super oversold
     
  472. Seems PPT continuing to prop mkt up. Until they are banned from intervening like they have been the last 10 years, BTFD.
     
  473. Really think the PPT if it even exists is going to step in at minus 1.4%
     
  474. IMO it's mkt manipulation by the fed reserve in collusion with the big banks. Yes, I do believe they will step in with a 1.4% dip. If they don't, the liquidity is not there.
     
  475. We probably put in a fairly significant low last week - expecting 2550 area soonish
     
  476. Continuing short hier.
     
  477. Day trade short 2471.75 Initial stop 2476.25
     
  478. Staying short for the moment hier at 2466.50
     
  479. Start buying under 2300.
     
  480. This trade was closed MOC at 2467.75 for 4 pt gain.
     
  481. We hit a very long term target last week.
     
  482. 2441 intraday buy
     
  483. 2429 cash gap in the crosshairs.
     
  484. 5718 on NDX. One could drag the other.
     
  485. At the moment, I've no choice but to stay short hier. We're at 2423.75
     
  486. There is no obvious signal for a day trade long right now. I will be watching though in hopes of grabbing one intraday. Reader--This would constitute trading around my core long term short position and would cause me to be net long on an intraday basis only.
     
  487. I am disregarding the buy signal on hourly--it doesn't line up the way I like with the 4 hour and daily.
     
  488. A downward trend line has now been established on daily. That trendline could sustain a significant bounce and still be in great shape. Staying short.
     
  489. Staying short. Downward trendline still way above our current pricing of 2444.00
     
  490. Lowering stop to 2475.00. Continuing short hier.
     
  491. Day trade short 2449.75---Initial stop 2462.00
     
  492. Stop lowered to 2456.00-----Pricing currently 2443.50
     
  493. Out 2443.25 for gain of 6.5 pts
     
  494. ES down in after hours due to N Korea missile miss over Japan. I am doing long only trades right now and hitting targets.
     
  495. I remain short hier with pricing @2435.75
     
  496. This bounce should stall out under 2450. We're at 2442 now.-- If it doesn't, I'll deal with it appropriately.
     
  497. Short 2451.50 Stop above 2454. Target 2432.50. Also, short oil CL right now.
     
  498. We have closed the trade at 2449 for now and will look at oil and other reports in the morning. Also we closed the oil trade too for a good profit.
     
  499. Day trade Long 2451.00. Initial stop 2448.50
     
  500. Stop raised to 2449.75.
     
  501. prolly head back to high end of ATR, will kill the most. NK doom didn't pan out.
     
  502. Limit sell entered at 2457.25
     
  503. --Out at 2457.25 for gain of 6.25 pts.
     
  504. Day trade short 2458.25. Initial stop 2461.00
     
  505. Exited at close at 2456.00 for 2.25 pt gain.
     
  506. Small gap at 2466.12 on cash on 60 min chart that has not been filled since Aug 16. Last hope for shorts.
     
  507. Stopped out for loss of 11 pts.
     
  508. Day trade Long 2475.50. Initial stop 2473.00
     
  509. Day trade short 2474.50 Initial stop 2480.00
     
  510. Reversed long at 2477.75 for 3.25 pt loss. Initial stop 2471.00
     
  511. S75.75 4 tick stop and target

    -4 ticks

    going to be slow grind up
     
  512. Limit sell entered at 2484.00
     
  513. Volume is anemic today...holiday mode.
     
  514. We are looking for a little weakness next week as N Korea plans to test its hydrogen bomb over the USA and create a massive EMP while Trump launches stealth nuclear bombers to take Kim out. Look to short weakness.
     
  515. Cool! I'll stay in lurking mode.
     
  516. Day trade short 2463.50. Initial stop 2468.00
     
  517. Stopping lowered to 2465.00
     
  518. Stopped out for loss of 1.75 pts
     
  519. Day trade short 2465.50 Initial stop 2467.50
     
  520. Stopped for loss of 2.25 pts
     
  521. Day trade short 2467.00 Initial stop 2469.00
     
  522. Day trade Long 2465.50. Initial stop 2464.50
     
  523. Stopped for loss of 1.25 pts.
     
  524. Day trade long 2461.50 . Initial stop. 2458.00
     
  525. Stopping raised to 2459.25
     
  526. Exited MOC at 2466.25 for gain of 4.75 pts
     
  527. Long 2460.75. Initial stop 2455.00
     
  528. Staying long. Pricing is at 2463.25
     
  529. Trade starting out in good shape.
     
  530. Out and short at 2474.25 for gain of 13.5 pts. Initial stop 2477.00
     
  531. Trade was stopped for loss of 3 pts.
     
  532. Headed out to play 18. I may miss the short when it comes, but will try and monitor on my Blackberry. If I miss it, I miss it.
     
  533. Short 2485.75. Initial stop 2489.50
     
  534. Stopped out overnight for loss of 4 pts.
     
  535. Short 2489.50. Initial stop 2492.00
     
  536. Stopped for loss of 2.5 pts
     
  537. Short 2491.50 Initial stop 2496.00
     
  538. Out at 2492.25 for loss of .75 pt
     
  539. Sold 1 contract at 2495.75 and stopped out 2497.25. Now I know I did not put this trade into the journal in real time. However, I bet since this is a loss, you all believe me. Price only went 1 tick higher than my stop, so we will see by the close if my stop was too conservative. However, it was probably a bad trade especially since I don't hold over the weekend.
     
  540. In hindsight looking at the chart, it's so easy to see how I should have traded for the day. LOL. The goal is to do this in real time in the future.

     
  541. Long 2502.25 . Initial stop 2475.00
     
  542. Day trade long 2496.75 Initial stop 2495.00
     
  543. Sold MOC at 2499.00 for gain of 2.25 pts
     
  544. This trade still remains open. Let's see what the new week brings us.
     
  545. Day trade long 2498.50 Initial stop 2497.00
     
  546. Staying long here with pricing at 2500.25
     
  547. Stopped for loss of 1.75 pts
     
  548. current underlying 'event' .."calm before the storm" statement by POTUS.
     
  549. Currently short ES
     
  550. my stop is 2554.25
     
  551. They key to an intraday/swing short is 2546.25. --Need to breach that and have it become new ceiling.
     
  552. Breached-----Now let's see if it can become a new ceiling.
     
  553. Now we've breached the second support level of 2543.75. Next support is 2539.25. --Should be attempts to put in floor at 2543.75 and/or 2539.25
     
  554. What I would look for is a bounce off one of these levels and then the intraday/swing short could be taken on fresh downside momentum.
     
  555. ES short 2554

    stop 20pts

    (i'm back, my divorce is over, i'm over it almost etc)
     
  556. stopped for -20

    new short 2574 20pt stop
     
  557. Stay short here. Current pricing is 2578.00
     
  558. Folks---this was spot on from Early Oct
     
  559. Long 2573.50 Initial stop 2543.00
     
  560. Hows that working out for you so far?
     
  561. Right now I am ahead a half point
     
  562. Might see a big drop into the close today...
     
  563. Why do you think that?
     
  564. take a serious fall here
     
  565. Cause im dumbo! As if the market is ever gonna go down!
     
  566. I'm right there with you...I thought I was being smart closing the short side of my put spread to leg-out of it today.
     
  567. we should be going up until after Christmas here.
    Looking for 2650 first.
    Then Maybe a flatline/small drop to where we are now
    then move towards 3k
     
  568. %% Its a bull market you know;
    some dont know that LOL:D:caution: NOT a prediction
     
  569. Currently ahead 8 points
     
  570. Not yet.
     
  571. the daily curve looks like a fractal of a intraday news event curve, representing one way bias. So no sense in shorting this. Only time its been effective is when a significant deviation high is made, just from random noise, the price pattern backfills. But can't maintain a short for too long, since the curve outfits upwards.
     
  572. daily.jpg
     
  573. If things continue this way and we close here, I will be closing long position and shorting today.
     
  574. I am out and short at 2581.50 for 8 pts gain. Initial stop is 2642.00
     
  575. Continuing short here. Pricing currently 2563.00
     
  576. Short position continues here with pricing @ 2600.50
     
  577. 2642 is the major upper channel line.
     
  578. There is nothing like giving up 20 points gain and letting it go into the red by 40 points.

    What I don't get is, you said it was a top but not THE top so you were expecting another higher High, so why not protect profits??? Silly notion, I know
     
  579. I am out and Long at 2631.50 for loss of 50 pts. Initial stop here is 2624.00
     
  580. Stopped earlier for loss of 7.75 pts,
     
  581. Short 2624.00 Initial stop is 2627.00
     
  582. 3 point loss
     
  583. Long 2638.50 Initial stop 2620.00
     
  584. waiting for 2668 now
     
  585. Sold @ 2655.00 for gain of 16.5 pts
     
  586. Good. Now you can go short. NDX daily still hasn't crossed the SMA. That is the line to watch...
     
  587. No short right now. I will be looking to buy the dip.
     
  588. See? That is why it is nice to take profits. This trade would have been taken out with this sudden Flynn crash, had you not cosed it earlier.

    Did you buy on the "dip"?
     
  589. Looking for proper dip to buy. I'll inform when I do.
     
  590. Short 2658.75. Initial stop 2684.00
     
  591. Out at 2667.25 for loss of 8.5 pts. Rolled into March short at 2669.75 Initial stop 2684.00
     
  592. Staying short for now. I would expect buying to come in @ 2625 to 2635.
     
  593. Where do you think ES will end the year? It's currently overshooting even the defined 'uptrend channel' of the past few.
     
  594. Loss was 14.5 pts
     
  595. Long @ 2685.50 Initial stop 2663.00
     
  596. No real idea. Would you post your trend channel so we can see what you are getting at?
     
  597. Staying long here 15 minutes prior to cash closing. 2684.50. Let's see what the night brings.
     
  598. Looking good here.
    Continuing Long
     
  599. Looks good to stay long here at the 2682 level. Full position still on as usual.
     
  600. I looked up last year's end of year movement. The ES went down 15 points but in the next year made it back pretty much on the first day. FWIW
     
  601. Does you research show that that is typical for Santa Claus rallies. ---A lot of folks don't realize that the Santa Claus rally happens after Christmas not before.
     
  602. Including me. I have just learnt that this morning from CNBC. But anyway I only looked up last year only. Year's end profit taking kind of explains it.

    Edit: 2 years ago it was zig-zagging heavily between 2044-2081.
     
  603. Nice bounce into the close today. I will be keeping my position the same for the foreseeable future.
     
  604. Primed here for a nice runup today.
     
  605. Day trade Long 2688.00 initial stop 2683.25
     
  606. Should be a little intraday resistance at 2691 -2692 and then a move on 2700 should occur. I am entering a limit sell order on the day trade @2699.75.
     
  607. What’s your planned stop on this one if it comes in.
     
  608. 2683.25
     
  609. Oh I’m sorry I read that wrong, I thought you were going to enter a new short day trade at that level.
     
  610. Loss of 5 points
     
  611. Intraday resistance appeared but it was a little stronger than I expected.
     
  612. The "Christmas Rally" seems to be losing it's chances of materializing this year. (I hope I just jinxed myself there and it zooms up now!)
     
  613. Still looking to buy dips.
     
  614. What are you basing your long bias on? Fundamentals, technicals, which?
     
  615. Technicals.
     
  616. Day trade long 2685.25. Initial stop 2681.00
     
  617. Out @ 2687.50 for gain of 2.25 pts
     
  618. Short @ 2687.75 stop 2690.25
     
  619. Thanks for posting. I differ in that I see this as a long from here.
     
  620. Stopped out overnight -2.5 pt.
     
  621. Short @2695.75 stop 2698.75
     
  622. Out 2689.75 + 6
     
  623. Long 2688.5 stop 2685.75
     
  624. Stopped -2.75
     
  625. Long 2685.75 stop 2682.75
     
  626. Looks like you may be trading ranges on the 1 min chart?
     
  627. Stopped -3
     
  628. ES is in a trading range for the last 2 weeks. I was looking for it to return to range top.
     
  629. Long 2682.75 stop 2679.75
     
  630. Stopped -3
     
  631. You got greedy ... You were up 3+ points.
     
  632. Lol
     
  633. I had a target about 6 pt on that one. But should have gotten out around BE when the market turned down.
     
  634. Classic end of year sell off to balance out books. Gap from 12/18 now filled. Looking to buy dips still.
     
  635. Last print 2707.00 Staying long
     
  636. Nice. Any plans to take profits or you will just ride this all year long?
     
  637. Long for now.
     
  638. Is there anywhere you discussed what technical analysis, and what time frame you're trading?
     
  639. Numerous places. Basically short term trades are on a combo of 5,15,60 and 240. Longer term trades taken on combo of 240, Daily, Weekly and Monthly. I am a trend follower.
     
  640. Long 2379.25 initial stop 2334.00
     
  641. Not sure how I mistyped this but it was actually Long 2739.25 Initial stop 2734.00
     
  642. Out @ 2745.50 for gain of 6.25 pts.
     
  643. %% I do 2, some;
    + good thing for low drawdown numbers LOL.:D:caution:
     
  644. Yes - really fatfingered this one. My entry was 400 points below market
     
  645. The last person has just left the man cave after the National Championship.---One of the greatest games ever played. Great fellowship and camaraderie from my good friends of decades. Really good times.
     
  646. Long 2737.50. Initial stop 2721.00
     
  647. Out @ 2750.00 for gain of 12.5 pts
     
  648. %%
    Amen; but when it [any]starts acting crazy on the upside, huge gap up or buying panic..... prefer To tighTen up stops , the best trends dont pull back much, anyway. 50 week moving average can help; IBD uses a 40 week moving average.....................................................................:thumbsup::D:caution::caution::caution::caution::caution:,,:caution::caution:
     
  649. Out @ 2756.00 for gain of 70.5 pts
     
  650. I think you can place a short trade with conviction around this level.. the next move lower doesn't need a catalyst.. something like 2-3% down over the course of a week or two simply to shake out weak hands is no big deal.. no catalyst needed and will be blamed on profit taking. government shutdown this week could add some headline risk..
     
  651. I still believe buying dips is the way to go.
     
  652. the vol is refreshing.. well see!!
     
  653. A good start. The call is .7 percent to the good right now.
     
  654. Long 2777.50 Initial stop2756.00
     
  655. Holding overnight. We're @ 2781.75
     
  656. There's a bit of support here overnight at 2781.50.
     
  657. Trade starting out well. We're @2785.00. Some weak hands who got long before the open are getting shaken out here as we were in the 90s earlier. --I am not a weak hand.
     
  658. We're within a point or so of all time highs here. Let's see what happens at this level. Staying long @ 2807.50
     
  659. Protective stop raised to 2780.50. Pricing currently @ 2805.00. We have a bit of a stall-out at this area of all time high.
     
  660. And let me tell you folks, you really do not wish to know where I am being held. It cannot be mentioned on this forum, because kids come here. *sighs*

    Naughty!
     
  661. I think it's more of a hold in a loving way. Butterfly kisses and such.
     
  662. Protective stop raised to 2783.00
     
  663. Protective stop raised to 2786.00
     
  664. Looks like a new bottom is being carved out here. 2790 to 2800 area.
     
  665. We're @ 2795.75. Buying should come in strong in the next 4 or 5 points to the down.
     
  666. It did and we are at 2804.00. Protective stop raised to 2791.00
     
  667. Another attempt being made here to further carve bottom. I will stay with the same protective stop here.
     
  668. 2796.25 is last print with my stop @ 2791.00