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ES Journal - 2017/2018

  1. Longer term position player looking to post here some shorter term ES trades to begin to get a feel for the intraday movements etc. Some positions will be held overnight and I will use this as a training ground to get stops put in at correct levels etc. It may take me a while to get good. I am used to holding positions for weeks and months.
     
  2. Still have a week left in 2016 haha
     
  3. Alright folks I'm gonna give my mind a rest until about 1 week into January.

    As for the rest of you who keep trading during this Christmas / NYE period..... get a life.... seriously!!

    Cyas on this thread in 2017.
     
  4. Ok --see you in the New Year. --about a week left on the 2016 thread.
     
  5. IMO, I believe market might open with a down gap on Tuesday morning and then we will see a sizable rebound (i.e. SPX with >15pts movement) that might last for a day or two. I might execute a swing trade that day if market indeed opens with a down gap.

    Happy New Year to all. Let's hope next year will be a great year to all of us :)
     
  6. Happy New Year
     
  7. Reminder of my current position in the market:
     
  8. ---Wed 12/28 late afternoon short 2245.00. Initial stop 2275.00
    ---Thurs 12/29 midday I remain short on the swing trade with same stop. Price is currently 2241.75
    ---Fri 12/30 late morning Price currently 2238.75. I remain short.
     
  9. ES is up >15pts within my expectation that a sizable rebound was imminent, but without me on-board. Going to sit and watch how market plays out for now. sc2.png
     
  10. Swing signals are still very bullish, while short-term signals are getting mixed. I guess swing/short-term bears have no choice, but live to fight at another day.
     
  11. For those bears getting stuck, there is a hope because ES rarely leaves any open gap like this. However, I don't think this gap will get filled within today/tomorrow because swing signals are quite bullish.
     
  12. No idea whether gap will be filled today or whenever, as you said they mostly do get filled. I also agree that stocks will continue rallying until the time when Trump becomes president and starts putting in plans of 'change'. Daily chart has bottomed (three higher lows and MACD positive as well). Gapped from daily support zone.

    Screen Shot 2017-01-03 at 15.36.58.png
     
  13. On days like today when they gap this much on open from previous day, it becomes another day off for Scalpers like myself, just way too much volatility. I do well trading "noise" but too loud today, and that's ok, who doesn't like another day off? Trading is often about self discovery, what works for you and risk management, too risky I will trade maybe tomorrow for Indexes, but there is always currencies and crude oil.
     
  14. I agree about large gaps. But I don't take the day off. I just forgo the golden hour, have some breakfast, maybe put on a couple micro-currency contracts and take a stroll. Whatever works. Increased volatility is great, extreme volatility I wait out and do/trade other things.
     
  15. If you going for larger profits in Indexes, increased volatility is ok, but when you trading "noise" and going for 1-3 ticks, it a bit different for me. I enter on controlled limits and don't expect market to rapidly move other way too many points, I ave down so price going against position is ok as I understand what is normal wave size of the "dips" but when it is like today, it is a day off as abnormal price action would be massive losses. Many scalpers don't trade less than full week of trading so they take 8 weeks off, am too greedy and wait for open and if too great-done. All the automation has rules to not trade Indexes on days like today as well. Scalping "noise" later on has lack of volume and follow through, so rather work on other things.
     
  16. Trading noise? Its all music to me. But! Doesn't it depend on watcha lookin at?:D
     
  17. Day trade Short 2241.00. Initial stop 2243.00
     
  18. Stopped for 2 pt loss
     
  19. Day trade short 2244.50 Initial stop 2247.75
     
  20. Stopped for 3.5 pt loss
     
  21. Not really, as long as same timeframe within couple minutes, indicators and first 45 minutes of day session that market is home-Euro currency is Europe's time, am going to look for same patterns, but if huge gaps happen between yesterday's close and todays open, the volatility will be too much and normal patterns will be not normal, it is just best to walk away and work on other financial projects. I do use a moving average for trend, so it is noise with direction, but it is reversion, but to say back to the mean would be wrong as we can't foretell the future, is quite impossible to say what the mean actually would be, so I select so many ticks. First 45 minutes offer most volume, if you going to put up with the stress of trading, I want to get it over with as quickly as possible in 40 minutes to put on entries.
     
  22. Long @ 2252

    Stop @ 2247
     
  23. Ok Handle, But we all see the world thru a different window and that includes finding value, before we put on a trade. :) Cheers!
     
  24. Absolutely right and I hope you have an incredible 2017.:D
     
  25. out +9 ticks
     
  26. How about we both have an incredible 2017 and beyond!:thumbsup:
     
  27. Market might or might not pull back here, but one thing for certain is that there is a higher high ahead. Currently, both swing and short-term signals are bullish. Look like bears again live to fight at another day, not today because of high probability of a higher high ahead.
     
  28. sc2.png Higher high as expected. I just initiated a short position through SPY puts @226.45. This is a swing trade, which means I might hold it less than two days.
     
  29. Day trade short 2265.75 Initial stop 2266.75
     
  30. Any reasoning?
     
  31. Probing overbought condition and we have attempted this area 3 times
     
  32. Long ES @2265.25

    Stop@ 2261

    not overbought, not at all
     
  33. sell 65.50
     
  34. +1.00

    Just scalping noise
     
  35. That's just Music;)
     
  36. ROFLMAO
     
  37. Stopped yesterday loss of 1 pt
     
  38. Day trade short 2263.00 Initial stop 2266.00
     
  39. Out @226.14.... It's too risky to hold any short position as this bull still has legs on the upside.
     
  40. I see what your seeing:thumbsup:, But The NQ looks like it might have different plans.
     
  41. IMHO all markets across the board are in bull mode, best to buy dips and not sell potential tops of oscillations, again IMHO. Win loss ratio is improved considering a large sample data of trades whenever counter trend signals are ignored and only trading opportunities exploited in line with the predominant trend.
     
  42. yes--but I use stops so I never get hurt too bad
     
  43. Both drop at the same time??? Bears aren't taking it seriously today. sc2.png
     
  44. 2/3rds of my scalping today was selling, but then I am not in trades long, but all were with the trend. Just trading noise, LOL 1 of my losses was on long side and other 2 on shorts, just keep trading till losses made up. I don't use stops, hassle for me, mental stops are like real far away, losses I usually get is when trend changes and waiting on reversal signals, so they usually never more than buck and half.
     
  45. L 56.25
     
  46. That's an interesting, quick at a glance analysis. I'll test to see if that quickie has value within my stuff. I luv quickies! Thanks for the thought, ET2017!
     
  47. I had added to this position as it went lower so min I make was a buck on original signal.

    Time for Starbucks
     
  48. -8 point drop / swing back to just above the opening level. -6 would have been a good level, although I prefer -5. - 8 is brave because the market might not even get there o_O.

    Couple more days and I'd say the ES will be tradeable, I kinda feel that some retail might still be stuck in holiday mode..... or sipping mojitos in the Carribean :cool:.
     
  49. Not again... Look like another boring day without any clear direction. I'm back to bed :p
    sc2.png
     
  50. You give up easy, it's the boring times that often result in range expansion.
     
  51. SPY seems to get stuck between price chanel and moving average on this daily chart. I guess this is a good opportunity for day traders and scalpers to make some donuts, but it's not for me because my trading style is swing to short-term. :banghead: sc2.png

     
  52. Breakout in NDX or retrace?

    I'm leaning towards breakout (daily).
     
  53. S 75.25
     
  54. I think it's a great opportunity for day traders/scalpers to short for a quick gain here.

    sc2.png
     
  55. +1.00 and took other shorts of trading noise
     
  56. One man's noise is anothers signal..

    and vice versa:)
     
  57. Bears done for today???? :D
    sc2.png
     
  58. ET, pls explain that chart? thx

    Lot looking to short this maybe, and maybe they will be surprised at the legs:)
     
  59. I thought the highs be broken by now of several highs within 2 ticks of each other on one minute
     
  60. Long 75.25
     
  61. 9 up sticks on 15-minute chart + overbought + green histogram crossing below 0 = a great and reliable setup for day traders & scalpers to make a quick gain. Your fingers have to be quick though :D
     
  62. My statistics show a high probability of pulling back early next week before rallying further on the upside??? I guess I'll wait until either Tuesday/Wednesday before betting on the upside.

    Done with posting. Happy weekend to all.
     
  63. +0.25
     
  64. Am calling it a day, getting tired of sitting here, another day at the Quarry.

    Have a fun weekend all, you can watch the snow in Georgia? They even get snow?
     
  65. They don't just want to win, they want to break the bears back!:)
     
  66. If you've been trading this market for years, you'd notice that Friday tends to be a strong up day. I mean for the whole day.
     
  67. Ok. I didn't realize this. That's interesting...did you do a backtest on this or?
     
  68. Ok, this is my expectation, it's very likely that Naz is ready for another upside thrust, this is the weekly chart. I'd only buy dips now, better win rate this way IMO.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  69. Stopped 30.25 pt loss
     
  70. Day trade short 2274.00 Initial stop 2278.50
     
  71. this is getting interesting now...to short here?:)

    they could easily run your stop, on a day like today in a blink of an eye
     
  72. This area 2270 is where the rubber meets the road. Either a breakout above or this is a top either short term or long term
     
  73. True and a likely outcome, yet best bang for the buck is going counter on extreme deviations.
     
  74. In ideal world, a nice little drop here so shorts above can get out with nice $ and late longs can get in for next run.

    In the ideal world:)
     
  75. sc2.png
    I agree with you. Another bullish sign to support your current view is that first touch on upper bollinger band means more up ahead. So, trying to counter-trend trading here is a risky business.

    In the meantime, I expect market to pull back first before betting on the upside.
     
  76. That is based on my experience for years while observing/trading this market.
     
  77. a first touch of an upper BB means higher? touch of an upper BB means overbought according to classic use?

    am I wrong here, or are you using this differently?
     
  78. I am leaning towards this being the area of a short term top
     
  79. Lets run this higher, and decide next week?
     
  80. Good luck Monday, hope they don't pop your stop:)
     
  81. Can I ask you a question...why hold here thru weekend. why roll the dice? how much lower you looking for, and at what risk?

    do you expect 2250 or lower?

    we could gap right past your stop Monday.

    You were right, take profit, lets see where Monday opens?

    trying to understand your reasoning here?
     
  82. is this a daytrade or not? does a daytrade last 3 days?

    assuming you changed your mind didn't inform rest of us..

    3 in the bag, what's the upside holding tru weekend?

    you expect a 2050 gap??
     
  83. perhaps you best make haste and get an edge. PRM only isn't working too good.
     
  84. IMO a first touch on upper BB in many cases is usually a breakout point with a lot of momentum and it doesn't often roll over right away, which might take days or weeks to do so regardless of overbought/extremely overbought conditions. Please notes that it's not the same with first touching on lower BB because market has never been fair to bears.
     
  85. My 2 cents tell me that his short position is quite safe with swing signals showing bearish Monday/Tuesday. Beyond that, short-term signals are still with bulls for now.
     
  86. I don't quite understand what B1 is doing with this trade, he used to be a hardcore follower of trends and as far as I'm aware he would only take signals in line with the dominant trend. There's no reference point to the left of the chart, so breakout is more likely IMO. Can price substantially retrace next week? Anything is possible, but there's no parabolic action to suggest it's likelihood of taking place and as we know stock indexes need two to several attempts on most occasions to put in an intermediate top. So IMHO this trade is not too likely to end up being a winner. At the same time I wouldn't be long here, my preference is to await a retracement to get long.
     
  87. Kinda dick comment.
     
  88. Well he is the one who said the ONLY EDGE IS PRUDENT RISK MANAGEMENT. So, in this thread he has taken 5 trades. Four are losers. 1 point, 2 point, 3.5 points, 30.25 points. Zero winners. He has a 5th trade open. The above is neither an edge (which he doesn't believe exists other than PRM) nor is it PRM. To lose over 30 points on one trade in ES intraday is not prudent...at least in my books. Hence my comment he should make haste and find an edge. Plus in his comments in this thread he is talking probability in terms of what price may, or may not do, so in effect he is talking about an edge which he claims to not believe in. Apparently he believes the market is random and the only edge is PRM. However, look at any chart pre HFT OR NOW even with algos and HFT's dominating and any chart has B.O.'s, CHANNELS, RANGES, P.B. REVERSALS, FLAGS, WEDGES...ETC ad nauseum...and they are repeatable and can be anticipated via probability. For instance, about 70% of range b.o.'s fail and price goes back in the range. Can that be captialized on as an edge! You bet. Eventually, a b.o. will succeed and the range will end but even then there are ways to determine which direction the b.o. will most likely happen. One can load the boat just before the b.o. starts hence getting a "jump" on the B.O. All of this is trading with an edge.
     
  89. The 30 point loss was not a daytrade, it was a swing trade.
     
  90. PRM is probably the best thing he has found after so many years of trading. Well, everyone has his/her conviction, no point to argue; some found their best things in algos/indicators, and some fund their best thing in PRM/psychology.
     
  91. I wouldn't bust on b1s2 too much, his trades are overall net positive.
     
  92. I hope he traded at least 5 to 10 contracts at a time; last year he made around $5000/per contact, so that would be $20/per contract/per day, so if he traded 5 contracts each trade, he would made $100/day, if 10 contracts then $200. But if a swing trade lost 30 points like the recent one, 10 contracts would cause $15000. He is using PRM, so probably he wouldn't trade 10 contacts in swing trade.
     
  93. Yeah, would imagine with those numbers he trades multiple contracts.
     
  94. Well i see i was wrong. I looked again at his original post and see he did say some trades would be held overnight. My wrong. I guess the words "intraday movements" leaped out at me from his original post so i assumed it was an intraday trade. That is what i get for not paying attention to detail. Nevertheless, if the trade was just an overnight trade 30.25 points loss is nothing to sneeze at.

    "Longer term position player looking to post here some shorter term ES trades to begin to get a feel for the intraday movements etc. Some positions will be held overnight and I will use this as a training ground to get stops put in at correct levels etc. It may take me a while to get good. I am used to holding positions for weeks and months."
     
  95. Yeah that original post is a boiler plate from previous threads...he held that swing trade for several sessions.
     
  96. Not able to post late Fri. --This trade was closed Fri MOC at 2271.00 for a 3 pt.gain
     
  97. Reminder: Position trades are 2 times margin----Swing trades are 4 times margin---Day trades are 10 times margin.
     
  98. But saying that you have to consider his multi year tally, which I believe is net positive, making him within the 5%, nice achievement, wouldn't you agree?

    The thing is PRM even applies to non-trading environments, you do need to know what you are doing, yet you don't need to win on most occasions, that's the beauty of PRM, you could be a consistent loser, but be net positive ROI.

    P.S. I've just increased my pot by 400% playing BJ, must have played hundreds of hands, almost lost the pot on one occasion, so had to go all in after a massive losing streak. Point is that if I was to lose the pot it wouldn't have hurt me financially, yet being up 400% in 2 days is very nice indeed.
     
  99. Swing trade short 2267.00 Initial stop 2276.00
     
  100. Likely carving out a medium term top here.
     
  101. they will take out high here. or this week, but they will take it out.

    and you'll get stopped out @ 2276
     
  102. Volatility got too high for me, so I walked away, but back and watch till banana bread is done, LOL
     
  103. I take this as an admonition things are going higher, and i agree
     
  104. I think Dow and S&Ps go higher till Trump gets in and end up with down year. It will take at least a year before anything Trump does for market to be going up and if it will. Market is long overdue for correction. As far as volatility, can't scalp but am very much been watching VIX and long VXX/hedged for long term moves up up up.
     
  105. S 65.50
     
  106. +2 ticks
     
  107. L 64.25
     
  108. +1.00
     
  109. L 66.25
     
  110. +1.00, had added on way down a bit
    just trading noise in low volatility
     
  111. Remaining short for the time being on the swing trade.
     
  112. how do you define a swing trade? Overnight? Weekly?
     
  113. That's the only thing that I can see, but with Naz breaking out and MACD confirming extremely bullish set up I doubt you'll see a top here.

    Screen Shot 2017-01-11 at 05.54.01.png
     
  114. Swing from -5 points, 14+ swing. Picture perfect swing trade. :).
     
  115. S 66.75
     
  116. WHEW +2.00
     
  117. Swing trades are those that are intended to be held overnight--perhaps multiple nights and sometimes weeks. It depends on what the market does.
     
  118. You came within 2 points getting stopped yesterday, and now the beneficiary of fortuitous if not an outright ridiculous PA.

    I don't understand why you don't get out?

    Will you take a retrace all way back up?

    ES dropped 14 pts in a half hour. thats a GIFT, imo. i would have taken it. don't care what i called it "swing" "daytrade" or a scalp :)
     
  119. I need a swing buy signal or a stop out in order to exit .
     
  120. I understand following your rulz. However, the rulz must also take into account events that are extremely rare, and adjust for them.

    That's where the human trader steps in, imo

    got to know when to break the rulz

    (not trying to tell you how trade, just trying to understand)
     
  121. I don't break rules. I need a swing buy signal or a stop out to exit
     
  122. Breaking rules is not part of PRM. In order to implement PRM successfully, one must stick with the plan.
     
  123. Ok. When you were in initial stages of formulating your rulz, you adjusted them, right?

    There is no more room for further adjustment now?
     
  124. Mac you're a self admitted new trader...prob best to stop micro managing more experienced guys.
     
  125. I applaud Buy1Sell1 as he is rigid on his rules. I have system that does swing trades off the 60 minutes, it is automated and very rigid, it has to be cause what is a wonderful 14 points for you, if I stay with rules can be much much greater profits or breakeven or a loss as we have no idea of what the markets will do. But based on much back testing for like me, I can only be profitable by staying with back tested systems. Just like trade I took earlier, went against me almost 3.00 points and I have to stay short and I have to add onto on each signal and averaging down on all, we just don't know what the markets will do, but have to base on the past as we can't base on the future.
     
  126. But that's the nature of public forums though, as long as it's a civilised debate. If you don't like anyone suggesting, then why go on public forum? :)
     
  127. Yeah I hear ya....just annoying to hear a new guy who likely hasn't a clue busting someone who obviously does.
     
  128. B1S2 is correct, in order to succeed, you must have a trade plan and you must observe the rules of the plan. Unless you are a rare savant, adjusting the plan on the run is a road to failure. If the conditions are too uncomfortable...eg extreme volatility, unsettled news etc, there is nothing wrong with going for a walk or going out to lunch. The markets will be there when you get back.
     
  129. I wasn't "busting" i was probing.
     
  130. Once I defined the rules for good, there has never been a need to change them. Markets are essentially the same as they have been for a long time. It's just the logistics that are different.
     
  131. Not if your internet goes down on that walk :)
     
  132. My rules are set up to reap profits over the long haul. On individual trades I may lose or give back all profits.
     
  133. Market the same but the logistics are different? Not sure what you mean by "logistics", would you please clarify?
     
  134. I am not talking about walking away from a daytrade. As I don't automate other than an ATM, I do not walk away from an open position.
     
  135. I don't have to call a broker anymore.
     
  136. Lol, your an oldtimer :)

    cool, i'll leave you alone, probably learn smthg from you
     
  137. One might think that when you don't see Mac's Trades, but don't let his humble words deceive you, he does sniff out some really good entries.
     
  138. Wanted to short on higher bar, but end of hour and that is it for the day, got to have rules.
     
  139. I am in process of building a new system for my best friend, after 30 years he is tired of working for others doing the same things each day. It is very much like day trading, you know much about what works, back testing where I make my rules, can only trade certain times for Scalping like the first 40-50 minutes of the day providing volatility is low, this is key about volatility. Best way to know when not to trade is size of Bollinger bands, too big and I stop till reduces, if very too big I have to wait for start of new hour and I can only trade this new system for two sessions. The main concentration is not losing, so you watch the MAE a good deal, one has to build signals that offer fewest losses cause mental stops right now are much bigger than gains, trend has to be slower but can change when it has to change fast-that was actually simple to come up to figuring it out-use distance as a rule. So little by little you tackle small elements of one's system. My buddy is coding it, and I know it be the last system I make for day trading, I am tired of doing the same each day, automation by far is incredible.
     
  140. why do you need a new sys, you already said you are a former pit trader and banked on that experience with your automated algos?

    You are rich, just sitting back letting your algos cash out?
     
  141. PTTSD
     
  142. what is PTTSD?
     
  143. Handle123=Post Traumatic Trading Stress Disorder...or TWI
     
  144. S ES 2266.50

    trgt 63

    daytrade, take profit here
     
  145. the bulls in charge here, but must respect the bears since they owned the open
     
  146. Great question! Why the need to code a new system?
     
  147. add S ES2268
     
  148. decay here..under 66..maybe even 65
     
  149. 2264, new targt
     
  150. when you have it nailed first time, on a message board just shut up :)

    any rational humans would say you traders are capricious.

    Long this, short that. thats what we do :)
     
  151. add S ES 2270

    trgt 2264
     
  152. i hope you are trading in between your "rulz", because you leave lot on table.
     
  153. 64 is still in play
     
  154. Jerry Jeff Waker recorded a song..."Pissin in the wind"
     
  155. we are under 68...at least. so i am not that worried. not yet
     
  156. 68?...try 71
     
  157. decay here, imo

    slow drip..take out 68...maybe even 66
     
  158. Mac, do yourself a favor, take your losses. Adding to losing trades is a losers game. You can get good at it but ultimately, a catastrophic trade can take you out. There is a danger with public posting of trades, ego gets involved and you lose sight of your plan. No one care about whether you make money or lose money but you...not should they.
     
  159. Looks like I missed out on some ol fasion banter....

    Ah well, isn't adding to losing trades like trying to implement a martindale systym?

    Very choppy pattern last session. Quite interesting to, radical 15 point swings. XD.

    Good luck next session, hopefully we get some more simple free flowing patterns.

    Also I would like to point out just like the definition of margin has multiple meaning so does the word "swing" have multiple meaning. Now we all know that swing trading is holding a position for multiple days. So the second meaning is a "swing" pattern day or more specifically, when the market swings.

    Now you may have a open when the market moves steadily up say 7 points, and then swings, or basically starts to drop.

    Some people call this a "v top" or a "v bottom".

    However others call it a swing trade. A trader would specifically aim for a level in which to enter the market in the opposite direction. For the ES I believe these levels are around the +-5 point mark. The last 3 sessions have been very good for this, with the last session recording a 14 point swing, as the session b4 this was also around the 14 point mark (profit) from -5 point drop from the open.

    The day b4 that (3 sessions ago), was a little less however it swung from the -5 level.

    I believe this level is good because anything less is just "noise" and also tends to get hit quite a lot.

    Sure, you could pull up many charts in which you would have lost $$ on this. However I believe this is a 50/50 level!

    Another beaut thing about this type of trading is YOU DON"T HAVE TO WORK OUT DIRECTION!! Its already worked out for you! If you can't work out direction for a swing trade then delete all trading software and please don't drive on the road. :wtf:
     
  160. Because Handle123 is full of it. Every month or so he is creating another new system. He also makes them from his hospital room, as he mentioned, and makes them while he is getting a Starbucks. If he really wants to help his friend out, why not just share one of the many systems he already has? Why is he creating yet another system?? Given that he trades over 400 contracts, as he says, he might as well build a system that piggybacks his trades because he is moving the market!!!
     
  161. I'd also like to point out that many companies specifically trade this was with their stocks / future.

    Lets be honest guys, the ES is specifically designed as a place for insurance. So these traders, companies would aim to hold the open stocks when the market is going up and hedge when the market is dropping.

    I imagine that people have developed this technique quite well. Hold when the market is on the way up and hedge when the market "swings" :cool:.
     
  162. Do you believe there exists intraday swing trades? If so, what defines them as a swing trade?
     
  163. One cannot box the market up into a set of defined rules. The market is "alive" so to speak and every day is different than the other. The market knows nothing of our rules. It does what it is going to do 100% ignorant of your rules or mine. It is we who must observe what the market is doing and follow it as it is not us who define the market. To some degree there is probabilty but rarely more than 60%. I do not trade on rules. I trade on my observation of market action coupled with probability and can change my mind on a dime if the market does something unexpected or a probable trade fails. For instance, if the context is good for a wedge top reversal and i think there is a 60% chance a reversal will follow the wedge top and a reversal does indeed happen and i take the trade but then the reversal immediatley fails then i will exit and reverse direction simply because odds favor a wedge top "failure" to move fast and have two legs in the opposite direction of the original anticipated direction.

    As goes the 14 points someone mentioned in a previous post well .....i would have taken the 14 points profit ..screw..the rules. The market was giving me a gift. If i regard any rule it is the rule that in the final analysis the market and only the market "rules". The main area for rules for me is in my risk. Entries and exits are based upon live market action and probability. I don't always take every signal and entry simply because no two seemingly exact signals and entry are in the SAME exact context. The market tells its own story and i take signals and entries that fit in the story and have a reasonable chance of succeeding. I do not slavishly take every signal. There are simply too many variables. I look at what the context is telling me and what the signal and entry is telling me and consider the probabilty of a potential trade being successful as opposed to failing. I then define my risk with a SL for that particular context and probabilty, and assign a probable profit target but even that PT can change if my actual risk ends up being less than my original risk as the trade unfolds. I simply do not slavishly stick to a PT but I allow "actual unfolding PA" to MODIFY OR CHANGE even my original PT. For instance, if my profit target is 5 points and as the trade unfolds and moves in my favor but price stalls at 4 points and the context changes and tells me the move is probably over well i will take the 4 points and not let a "made profit" retrace into a loss just because my original PT was not reached.

    To each their own i guess......
     
  164. Rules are not for the market, they are for the trader. Perhaps you are one of the aforementioned savants.
     
  165. FWIW I only look for setups that offer reward @ x3 risk, I don't settle for anything less than that, if market goes up and then goes through my SL before reaching my target I accept that as a losing trade.
     
  166. I still believe that we are likely carving out a medium term top. If wrong, I am out with small losses. If right, I will let the trade run to maturity. This is the essence of trading.
     
  167. Those are day trades.
     
  168. "Intraday swing trade" ..... lol .....why do people have to over complicate things?
     
  169. Not certain. I would assume that intraday swings are what day traders are trying to trade--however small.
     
  170. And this is coming from someone who has not been here 2 months and have over 1,000 posts, you have a bigger idea of what is trading than ability to trade, you need to study more sonny than post as you are just wasting time.

    I keep getting systems programmed because I can, I don't see Buffet retiring and he has far more than most anyone who trades if not the most, and I doubt he day trades the ES cause perhaps not enough volume in ES except first thing in morning. I am getting older and don't want to stop remembering knowledge that I have, I have a disease where I am losing memory and each day is an enjoyment of what I have left. Today I forgot my email address, another note I must keep taped to the wall.

    And I agree traders are capricious, we have to be or get saddled with losses that are outrageous, but you don't have any knowledge of this as you lack experience. If you even read about Buy1Sell1 he does longer term swing trading and not trades that last minutes sonny boy.
     
  171. Volatility too high for me to scalp morning session, maybe in couple hours it will settle.
     
  172. ---01/09 Monday early afternoon Swing trade short 2267.00 Initial stop 2276.00
    ---01/12 Thurs late morning Price currently 2252.00 I remain short here.
     

  173. Good post @pinabetal.

    Most Elites will not "get it", as evidenced by the comment by @speedo. I had a similar convo elsewhere on ET, with a Topstepper. At first he praised the concept. He slept on it, and came back to question if I even traded!! My scribbling was different from yours, more pithy, but the gist, every trade is different, rules are always adjustable, the market is always right, minimize losses and/or take what the market is offering through those adjustable rules, was all there. Most people encountered on ET are just mentally stuck.

    Again, good post @pinabetal.
     
  174. Markets do not change because human behavior never changes. The same set of rules that applied yesterday applies today. Successful trading is about losing a little when wrong and winning more when right over the long haul.
     
  175. I agree 100%, but with the following "adjustment".
    The advent of the cell phone is no different than the advent of the telegraph of yore. The rise of the likes of Google and Facebook, is no different than the rise of the rails in the days of yore. Time however has changed financial products, the level of "sophistication" of said products, and the ability for the masses to participate with those financial products in a plethora of non-traditional ways. Does buy and hold work? If personal and/or life milestones are not considered, sure, why wouldn't it?
     
  176. As I said in an earlier posting, the logistics have changed, the markets haven't.
     
  177. Back and fill going on now in the market. ---Typical--- Nice little rally in the short swing. Let's see how long the back and fill lasts or if it morphs.
     
  178. So what you saying is if the market shows a profit that is more than what "bumps" normally happen, regardless of duration of time you trade by, you should void the rules you live by and take the profit? Is that be the same of like my long term method where I might stay in a trade over five years in Commodity market as well? I trade monthlies off that, so I should negate target 100 point moves in the ES for dozen points? And what if there is no re-entry signal after that short gain then watch it tumble to 100 points, should I be all happy I broken my rules for lousy dozen points?

    There are some systems by some traders who back test the hell out of their systems and are very rigid cause of the results of their work and personality, cost me way too much early on as I tried to not do the work and go for marginal profits. I think most people don't get trading and agree with you but for different reasons.

    People's beliefs might change, but dig out a wheat chart from late 1890's and see if you could trade it, I bet you can, and back then they just had pencil and ruler.
     
  179. No, that's not what I said at all. I said if you do not consider personal and/or life milestones, sure, buy and hold works. A person entering retirement in say, 2007, would probably disagree. As would the armies of bears over the last 8 years or so. Or maybe even you... you have methods that "work" for you, but "what if" ... what if your 100pts maxes out at 86pts? You have a timetable AND a "backtested" target, personal milestones in context, and it is that combination that is very dangerous, as opposed to adjustment of your rules, which is applicable to all buy and hold, longer term or shorter term.
     
  180. I DO understand what you are saying as I been down this road so many times. Just like many a trader with say a term of "leaving too much money on the table". It is a personal approach of going with the numbers, you either believe in what you have done or you change rules. Not so much of rules changed as I added options and learned to hedge open profits expecting possible retracements but maintaining the positions. But I have been using same rules for over couple decades concerning my targets and letting the rest run in very rigid rules. I guess in a way it is Buy and hold till it is reversing time. And yes, I still have some stocks I bought in the 1980s and have kept all this time, it is not so much as Buy and Hold like days of old, it is more like I bought very cheap and keep getting the dividends.

    What do you do when you have reached all your milestones? Rotten at golf, hard to go for a walk, damn geese like play, might as well trade. And yep, past year I was few points from target and ran all way back to breakeven, made 60% on the options and tomorrow another day. I been shorting the Indexes on new contract highs for awhile, it is that last trade I don't want to miss.
     
  181. Day trade short 2263.50. Initial stop 2266.00
     
  182. L 63.25
     
  183. reverse S 62.75
     
  184. This, options, not to be confused with financial instruments of the same name, is what adjustment is all about. A robust "rule" will allow for and have options.

    Without the option of using options as part of your rules, this highlights the loss of time, opportunity, and through osmosis, money. Which of course takes on a tearful perspective for the long(er) term holdings. Robust rules that allow for and have options, saved the day and will again another day too, I'm sure.

    Not possible the way I live and think.
    All the best to you.
     
  185. -1.00
     
  186. I will you well and profits as well.
     
  187. Stopped loss of 2.5 pts
     
  188. Day trade short 2264.50. Initial stop 2267.00
     
  189. Stopped loss of 2.5 pts
     
  190. Everyday is different in the markets. There are general trends..ranges..pull back..BO...channels...to be sure and all are a reflection of human nature. However, that said, no two are exactly the same in terms of the forces at play within them. That is, no two trends are exactly the same. Likewise with ranges therefore it is best not to trade each one the exact same way each time.
     
  191. Of course, in such long term trading then yes you make a valid point. However, in shorter term time frames such as in intraday trading that makes little logical sense because of mean reversion... whipsawing ...etc. Best to take profits and enter again if the move resumes. 12 points intraday is a good move for intraday. No if ands or buts about it. I get the market giving me 12 points or 14 points intraday on a big spike I am gonna lock that profit in and simply enter again if the move continues. Comm are minimal.
     
  192. Exactly ..rules are for the trader....that is why the main rules for me are SL and following the PA of the market. Stop losses are to protect me from me. I can define my stop loss exactly. I can't define with absolute certainity the PA yet to come but i can anticipate it with a 40% to 60% probabilty. Therefore, how it unfolds real time then in turn defines my profit taking. And as price action unfolds my extrapolated original PT based on the present information i have. As the PA unfolds that can change. And even my SL can be adjusted such as in trailing stop...etc.
     
  193. Absolutely I agree with you if day trading and make a homerun trade when you going for few points. But when you swing trading and taking it overnites, 14 points might be half of what someone gets in a normal profitable trade. Like if you bought on close of Dec 30, you could have had 20 points on Jan 3rd, but if your system says to stay in longer and you didn't, you lost the other 20 points on Jan 6th.

    I am not aware Buy1Sell1 is a day trader though.

    Only trailing stops I ever use is locking in one tick, either I am back testing wrong all these years, but trailing cuts my profits. Scalping you get so little for the risk, so you have to lose much less, and only method I have for larger day trading profits is opposite, many small losses for greater profits and losing percentages much greater. If it didn't cost so much time to hedge when day trading, I would, but by time you find right options, price has hit the target or gone down 6 ticks. If I didn't have rules, wow, I'd be like emg.
     
  194. As Plato wrote..."You cannot step into the same river twice,"
     
  195. Nothing complicated about it. There are many Swing High Swing Low trades on a 5 minute chart. In general I define an intraday swing trade as a move with 2 legs to it.
     
  196. I thought in his original first post he said something about wanting to learn about intraday movements daytrading???
     
  197. ES trades today 1-12-2017

    ES 1-12 2017.jpg
     
  198. Day trade Long 2268.00 Initial stop 2265.00
     
  199. trade short 2267.00 Initial stop 2276.00
    ---01/12 Thurs late morning Price currently 2252.00 I remain short here.
    Out on swing trade at 2267.25 for loss of .25 pt
     
  200. Narrow range garbage today.
     
  201. Out 2271.50 for 3.5 pt gain
     
  202. Out 2271.50 for 3.5 pt gain
     
  203. i guess the dude didn't bath often LOL
     
  204. A trader should not trade what they "believe" should be happening, but rather they should trade what IS happening even if it seems impossible to their finely crafted rules and setups. Even with the best laid plans the markets are filled with uncertainty on EVERY bar, however, one actively attempts, to trade setups, that have the probability of success times the reward being greater than the probability of failure times the risk. But, even then, you have to factor in that setups can, and will fail at times (even the best looking ones), therefore, one must be agile as a monkey to change their thinking if the market indicates that ones reason for taking a position is no longer a valid reason. That is why in some more uncertain contexts if I think that a trade will have probally have two legs (but also think it may not) I will grab the first leg ..exit...and enter again if the second begins. Especially, in the ES with all the mean (pun) reversion.
     
  205. Logical stop placement for each setup and context is different and should be looked at and determined individually taking into consideration the recent price action. If a flat money stop is used (say for instance 2 points) then that money stop should be examined as to whether or not it is feasible for the recent PA. If not, and one is not willing to use a logical PA stop (because it is too big money wise) then one should simplymskip the trade. Why? Because odds are very high that one will lose.
     
  206. You can't dissociate from what you "believe" is happening by invoking the "IS". Every tick of PA is incorporated into your experience or "belief system", what you BELIEVE will happen after that tick.

    You can't trade on just the "IS", you'd be taking every long or short tick up. That price action is fed into your greater belief system forged from experience. You ignore it, or you take the trade based on your belief of forthcoming profit. You get out the same way./

    The "IS" is only a small pat of the trade. The smallest part of the trade.
     
  207. Perhaps you unintentionally misrepresented your thoughts, you always forecast when betting on anything, you could pretend you are trading what you see, but in reality as soon as you go long you are forecasting a future event.
     
  208. that future event that you hope will happen is based on your experience with similar pattern in the past.

    You can't get away from your experience, IE CONTEXT and why would you want to try?

    Without context, just throwing $ at it:wtf:
     
  209. This thread is starting to look like the useless "the obvious is obvious" thread.
     
  210. First, let me say that is a good lucid post you've made @big mac.

    However, your reasoning between IS and BELIEVE is missing the defining component known as CONTEXT. It is through context, where IS exists. Everything else, once context has been established, is BELIEF. In a context, x,y, and z are expected to occur. Is that what is happening? If not, the trade is wrong, for that context! Not as a belief, but because the trade is wrong, for that context!

    I liken this to Russian Dolls... one inside another, inside another, etc. A vein, on a leaf, on a branch, on a tree, in a forest, in a jungle. A tick, as you've referred to in your post, is the smallest Russian Doll, a vein on a leaf. But that vein is pretty meaningless to a trader who's context is a forest. Just as a 200/day MA is pretty meaningless to a trader that uses say 1 minute charts for making many round-turns each day. Each Russian Doll, each category of nature, is its own context. Related to the others, but separate, until price action changes the context. A simple example would be a retrace might be a leaf on a branch. The trade you are in is either the leaf(the retrace), or the branch(the dominant direction). x,y,and z are expected. Until the context changes, in this example, the retrace turns into a full reversal, changing the context to the tree, then and only then, a new set of x,y,and z would be expected. (fwiw, that happened 3 times last week for me... I use 2min, 4min, and 20min charts, leaf, branch, tree) When context is confused, belief, takes over. Trading "I think", is pure chance. x,y,and z are expected due to a context, not chance. In context is what IS happening. Note: my use of x,y,z is merely nomenclature. there is no specific relevance of count. Point being, expectation, not chance.

    I suppose one could make an argument that context is based on experience and beliefs, but... that does not make context itself a belief. Everything that occurs (or does not occur) within a context, IS expected or not...not a belief.
     
  211. Perhaps you are taking my statement to an extreme that I never mean't. I will try to put it in more practical terms. Not philosophical terms. I know from experience that wedge tops in certain contexts usually have a reversal of sorts. Because of that belief, based on experience, i will place a trade "believing" that the probabilities of a reversal are higher than not. So, i take a position based on that information and "belief" if you wish to call it that. However, lets say there is no reversal instead there is a fast B.O. to the upside. I find myself in a quagmire. The market in this case is contradicting my belief. So i have to now make a new decision that I otherwise would not have to make. Will I continue in my belief and hold my position allowing my loss to compound or will i trade what I see the market doing? The proper thing ...at least for me...is i get out immediately because my belief about the wedge top in this particular instance was wrong. So I trade what IS. That is all i mean't by my statement. There are many beliefs, about many setups, in many contexts, but in the final analysis what counts, isn't my belief, but it is what the market actually does do. Many traders hold onto losses until they become unbearable because their belief about what "should" be happening doesn't agree with what IS happening but they deny the reality and hold onto a loss. I am not a philosopher but am just a pragmatic trader. That is all I mean't. Of course we trade on belief. But about 40 to 60 percent of the time the market will act in ways that contradict our beliefs. When that happen we have a new decision to make based upon reality taking place in front of our eyes. If the market is in a bull trend then IT IS regardless of any belief i may have that say it should be in a bear trend. Funny thing is i can show you an example of a market, on the same time frame, that is simultaneousley in a range..in a bull trend.. and also in a bear time all at the same time. It is like being on a road in the mountains...up and down...and on one particular stretch you would swear you are going uphill but stop put the car in neutral ...take your foot off the brakes ....and the car rolls backwards. Belief and perception often times contradict reality.
     
  212. In a way what you say is true. However, i would word it different. I would say I am anticipating a market move in a certain direction by taking a position based upon a probable outcome which in turn based upon past experience that I have had myself or that has been taught to me from the experience of others in a similiar context. I used to use the word predict but traders seem to get all worked up in a frenzy bout that...declaring vehemently that no one can predict the market...so for me it is semantics. LOL. Truth be known we are all trying to predict the next move ...that is why..we use TA or whatever...but i soften my language as the word "predict" works traders up into a foaming lather and like a rabid dog and they can hear nothing else. Some actually declare the markets to be totally random. Imagine that! I probally just opened another can of worms.
     
  213. Yes may be getting close ...ROFLMAO... but it is fun nevertheless!
     
  214. Here is an example of what I mean. Here is a relentless bear trend full of wedge bottoms. I believe wedge bottoms offer an oportunity for reversals. I HAVE RULES rules I generally follow when i trade wedge bottoms. However, every reversal attempt here failed and what seemed like a reversal forthcoming ended up being a flag and then a continuation of the old bear trend. Markets can keep a trend much further than one can imagine or may believe. I could keep thinking that a reversal is imminent. However, going long at every wedge bottom on this chart would be a losing strategy. In such a case, i would scrap my belief about normal wedge bottoms and instead trade the flags ...going short as price nears the MA.


    IMG_3897.PNG
     
  215. Boring day due to holiday..... nothing to see here folks.
     
  216. Day trade long 2261.50. Initial stop 2256.25
     
  217. Hard pressed to disagree with most of what you say here.

    One question though..how many failing wedge tops did it take (the belief) before you began trading bear flags (the IS)? And, how did you know with any reaasonable probability that the very next wedge top that formed below wouldn't work according to your experience (belief) to the contrary?

    The trading what IS in this case seems to be lets throw some $ the other way though I have no reason within my rulz to do. You BELIEVED it would go lower despite your rulz to the contrary. You traded a competing albeit much weaker belief system selling bear flags in the face of those wedges.

    I may be mistaken, Buy1 sticks to hiz rulzs no matter ...
     
  218. nice entry!
     
  219. Long YM @19790

    Stop @ 19765
     
  220. out even..

    taking too long to develop

    TIME STOP
     
  221. the reason for your daytrade must be over? your entry is brilliant, your exit may be less so..with a retest of the lows
     
  222. Thank you
     
  223. No sell signal yet, so staying long for now
     
  224. we will test the lows, sticking with your stop lower?

    and why? you had 7 pts in the bag after a brilliant entry?

    you are willing to ride this into a loss here?
     
  225. I haven't had 7 points yet.
     
  226. No reason to get out yet. I suspect we have put in a bottom at the 2257 area
     
  227. your in at 61.50
     
  228. And I suspect the bottom was put in in the 2257 area.
     
  229. assume it is
    and your willing to ride a brilliant 6 handle gain down to your stop? why?

    do you expect 12?24? from here?
     
  230. Assume it is and my stop won't be hit
     
  231. I haven't had 6 points yet
     
  232. my point is you give up 6, ride it down to just above your stop. about -6

    in hopes of what?

    you'll BE?
     
  233. Staying long here intraday.
     
  234. ride it down for all i care

    will you get out on next touch of your entry?
     
  235. the entty is one fifth, those other 4/5's are management

    ride it down for all i care
     
  236. So far it hasn't touched my entry . I see no sell signal and I think the bottom has been put in in the 2257 area. --Staying long
     
  237. Some traders look for reasons to remain in a trade. Other traders look for reasons to exit a trade. While money can be a (valid) reason in either camp, trading with the necessary discipline to adhere to the rules that the trader has chosen for him/her self, is what separates a good trade from a bad trade. That said, one of my rules, regardless of the trigger... do not allow a decent profit to turn into a loss. The caveat is the trader must know what decent means to him/her. IOW, to each their own.
     
  238. big mac will be taking a vacation from this thread for a couple weeks. Let's everyone else return to trading and keep it friendly. Thanks.
     
  239. Have a H&S bottom on 3 minute.

    I love H&S after a decline
     
  240. Thank you.
     
  241. Trade was closed MOC at 2262.50 for gain of 1 pt.
     
  242. futures have some extra noise.. than the ETF...

    ETF lines..

    lines.png

    expect a test of the moving average zone if the near term line fails.
     
  243. Very close trading range this session, only hit +5 points from the open at 2:00.
     
  244. Because of his durn rules! LOL
     
  245. As long as price with its pull backs stayed below the ma every flag i would short or add to a short position because the odds favored continued wedge failures i.e. they would just become bear flags and movement would probally continue down. Of course, no one knows for certain and cannot know for certain but odds favor SOUTH..because the IS showed itself to be weak. No flag could reach the ma.

    As to when i would have started shorting failed wedge bottoms...well..at the very first failure because odds favor two legs of movement in the unexpected direction when a wedge fails.

    As far as rules. My rules give me entries for wedge bottoms trading on the long side. So I generally look to follow them if the context indicates i should. But if price does the opposite then i flip to the short side. That is not a rule but just discretionary trading based upon what price action does. I may choose to do nothing and just skip the trade if the context (to the left) idicates that the failed wedge bottom may end UP failing itself because the prev price action showed more strenght than weakness. LOL. That is the challenge and uncertainty of trading. RULES DON'T MAKE THE MARKET NOR DOES THE MARKET KNOW ABOUT THEM NOR DOES IT CARE ABOUT THEM. IN THE CASE OF OUR FRIEND 2sell if the market gives me 14 points or 6 points or even 3 points I am taking them unless the context indicates to me there is a higher probability that more is forth coming. And by that i am not talking about another signal to get out of my position but i am talking about PA (the IS) talking me out of my position. I am open to taking profit or open to staying in just on the strenght of the PA and not on some predefined exit signal based upon some trading rule. However, i do understand some of what we are talking about could just be semantics. But any rule that would cause me to give up a 6 point intraday profit just because i didn't see my special exit trigger ....then ....to me, that is a dumb rule and i am not being very smart to watch my 6 points disappear and turn into a 3 point loss just because i did not see my exit signal. In such a case i would be trading my rules and not trading the market! I cannot demand the market give me exit signals. I have to take whatever it gives me especially when the context indicates the move is over or weakening.
     
  246. He had no less than 1 opportunity to get out at 2267 and 4 opportunities to get out at 2266.50 yet he didn't take it because of some rule. The context was saying get out. I don't understand his logic for riding the loss down. This is intraday trading not weekly. You grab what the market gives you. Too much "mean".... pun intended... reversion.

    temp.JPG
     
  247. Yesterday was a good day. The bottom was correctly identified in the 2257 area and trade management worked out the way I wanted it to.
     
  248. Can you please go away like Big Mac and just let b1s2 do his thing here without being second guessed constantly.
     
  249. Day trade Long 2261.75 Initial stop 2255.00
     
  250. Thanks Magna! He'll be welcome to create postings here again in a while without the vitriol--Izzy
     
  251. The key here for this trade to have legs, which is what we are looking for, is to clear 2266
     
  252. Price currently 2264.50
     
  253. I would think that there is a better than 50% chance that we get to 2271 today
     
  254. Would like to get through 2266 on this push. Price currently 2265.25
     
  255. Ok
    bye! In leaving i must say he is not explaining his logic at all. Just posting long and short entries. From his original post i thought he wanted to learn intraday trading as he was apparently an overnight ..weeking..monthly.....trader....etc ...well that is a horse of a different color than intraday moves. You cannot use the same strategies. Peace. Adios amigos.
     
  256. Here is where most folks get impatient and give up. Price doesn't move right away and their objective is not achieved instantaneously. I've got patience though and not many do. Patience is an important aspect of Prudent Risk Management. (PRM)
     
  257. Still long here after that quick drop. Price currently 2264.00
     
  258. Will come back and look at it a bit later. Price currently 2262.50. Stop remains 2255.00
     
  259. Gotta go but could not resist...too much patience can cause $ losses in the ES. Good luck ...have fun...much more could have been made trading the ups and downs in this range today instead of sitting tight holding for some target based on some rule while the ES is handing over money right and left in this slow moving PA. Do you realize how many times you could have gone short and long in this range? Hurst describes the logic behind this. es 1-18-2017.jpg
     
  260. Last time I checked b1s2 hasn't asked for advice from anybody.
     
  261. you know you may be right bout that. On the other hand he might consider it. bye again. I'll try to stay gone..at least for a while...but I may just check every now and then and see how it is going??????
     
  262. I'm back here for a bit. Market continues to have a long look to it. 2257 continues to hold and could actually be stronger now--don't know. I may hold this trade overnight given the potential bottom that we see--same one defined yesterday.
     
  263. Everything I have seen today says stay long, so I will.
     
  264. The key is getting above 2266 . We're close again.
     
  265. b1s2..you're smart for staying in. As of now, I'm not sure if we'll make a new high out of here -if we don't push through during this move. You know more than I do though. good luck to you
     
  266. actually there goes the 2nd leg. good trade I think you'll be okay
     
  267. I started shorting at 2266.00 and every tick up, but am not going for big profits. To me this is stop run hook of the previous high of the day.
     
  268. you still shooting for 4 ticks?
     
  269. Holding overnight. Price is currently 2266.50
     
  270. Thanks Big Mac
     
  271. I've seen that dude post and I can assure you I'm not him. Have a mod IP check or something
     
  272. pretty much a scratch, as every tick up to 2267.25 went short, usually it works
     
  273. anywhere from 4 to 2 ticks, but waiting for break HOD or LOD is usually good for a point
     
  274. I remain long here 5 minutes before rth. Price 2266.75
     
  275. For crying outloud sell1buy2 just get out and take what you can. You almost back to BE. You were BE in overnight. Did you sleep?
     
  276. I know you must be one of those people that love roller coaster rides. The higher and steeper the better! Space mountain at Disney World was too much for me. You would probally be drinking coffee and eating a donut on that roller coaster.
     
  277. Trade is at 10 times margin. 2257 has remained intact as the bottom. Stop is at 2255. I remain long.
     
  278. Price currently 2264.25
     
  279. I find it highly amusing to observe the commentators to agonize in pain over Buy1Sell2's trades.
     
  280. LOL that is funny. Hey I got a great idea. Why don't piggy back his trades in a real account with real money and see just how amusing it is! Granted he may win his battle...challenge..or whatever you want to call it but it will be done at great costs if you take into account what he could have made had his tactics been different. But me thinks he is about to get stopped out.
     
  281. Tremendous day trading buy signal just occurred.
     
  282. This sounds like something Donald Trump might say.
     
  283. He rode it all the way up to 2268.75 (didn't take the profit) then over night back down to his BE 2261.50 then from shortly after 4 a.m. the ride up began again all the way to 2269.50 (he still did not grab the profits) then after the wedge top he proceeded to ride it all the way back down to 2259.50. So, looking at the big picture. Forget the multitude of 1 and 2 point scalps in the market from the time he took his position. Just look at the big picture. He could taken 7 points on first ride up. Then shorted and grabbed another 6 or 7 points as it traded down overnight. Then he could have gone long and grabbed around 8 points as it traded up to 2269.50 then shorted and grabbed another 9 points as it traded down to 2259.50. So, big picture 30 points. So , he may, win in the end, achieve his goal, and preserve his rules but look what he missed. Strategy is one thing. Tactics are another. If he is so confident of his support/resistence/ profit taking/stoploss levels then why not change his tactical nature to maximize the profit within his levels? Ok while I am writing this another 4 points could have been made to the upside off the low of 2259.50 so make that 34 points. Somebody best make haste and do something as odds favor a ride back down in just a few minutes if it breaks south to 2263. Bottom line i do not understand his logic (but of course he isn't saying much about it) nor do I understand his tactics. Several times the market served him up points on a silver platter and he apparently snubbed his nose at the markets. DURN RULES! But I am of the baby boomer generation and we as a whole have never cared much about being hemmed in by rules. Of course, if he were trading with real money things may be different in terms of him holding his position.
     
  284. Was this great signal on the long or short side?
     
  285. Did you slide that stoploss down or has that always been the original stoploss?
     
  286. Never mind i found the info from your first post. What started as a daytrade ended up converting into an overnight trade. Plus you did slide the stop down but only a tiny bit. Good luck maybe you will get a rebound in the afternoon. Odds favor you getting stopped out before the session ends but i could be wrong. You may roar back "damn the torpedoes" and blast the ship right out of the ocean! Who knows?
     
  287. I'm assuming since he traded longer timeframes than us(months according to og post), he knows something that we don't. In my eyes, it also looks inefficient..but time will tell.
     
  288. i am quite convinced he knows something i don't!
     
  289. Would you please spill the beans and tell us about that so called (by nonlinear) Trump trade. Is it on the long side or short side and what entry price? Seriousley.
     
  290. I remain long on this trade. I liked the look of the chart at eod yesterday so I am still holding long. I still like the look of the chart. Staying long.
     
  291.  
  292. Good day trading buy signal has just ocurred
     
  293. Ok
    another one or same one mentioned earlier? What is entry price and SL For this good daytrading signal? Long or short?
     
  294. You're asking if a buy signal is long or short ?
     
  295. Nowhere to go but up from here
     
  296. Oh i didnt notice that word buy in his post so my bad. I must have had chicken sh$t in my eyes. However, he never gave a long entry price. I really don't understand his logic. I would be looking for short opportunities.
     
  297. I have been short several times today but I have my own trade plan and time frames so what B1 or anyone else does is irrelevant. I do perceive B1 to be a real trader though as opposed to most on ET.
     
  298. He could be. I wish him the best. Just wish i could get a handle on his thinking but he ain't talking.
     
  299. And--here we go!
     
  300. Ok but where to? To the middle of the bear channel or a huge B.O. above that bear channel?
     
  301. Yeah, I don't see it either. If it breaks out of the channel by a full point to the upside, I'll look to cover some of my short position.

    ES.PNG
     
  302. He's a swing trader who goes for a large profit. From what it looks like, 66 wasn't a big enough target for him so he decided to stay in because he expects a pop. idk his timeframe, idk if he has signals, idk his method, So I cant judge to say whether he's right or wrong about his own method. Another person like me could probably say to you "hey instead of 3 points, why not just take 1 like me??" but idk your plan or what you're looking at. The only reason I even log onto this site is to see if what other people do is effective or not. I'm looking at this journal to see what a swing trader has to go through
     
  303. Stopped out for loss of 7 pts
     
  304. Good discipline and patience on this one and just had the small loss. That's the way you want it---Izzy
     
  305. Long 10 times margin. 2256.50 Initial stop 2249.25
     
  306. Holy Fish-head Batman, Every day I expect to get my goal in first 50 minutes, but when I don't, it is bad, how bad-baddddd, I kept trading the times I detest trading, lunch- but if you are scalper, you have to keep trading when in the hole, keep your discipline, remind yourself not good to throw things, way too many trips to ER, just keep focused, patience discipline and five hours later, I net my small goal. Did I learn anything? Hell no, what is there to learn when you are trading as close to my style as possible, but I will remember this day for sure, came back and kept going to cover fees and make my profit. Did I think about what the market is doing-hell no, I have a new system but old reliable ways to trading any system, don't think, just do the Trading Plan, if at end of the day system lost-it lost and not me, best way to not take it personal............I really believe the hardest part of having a Trading Plan is to follow it when you a young trader, as you age, much easier as you find out being dumb makes more than being smart when trading at least for me.
     
  307. Well i hand that to you. You had the discipline to trade your rules. Well you did fudge a bit on the SL but that was understandable considering the situation. I wouldn't say you traded the markets but you certainley traded your rules. You must be trying to apply price rotation on intraday markets.
     
  308. I would make haste and look for a reason to short not go long. At least not at this moment. Of course i can change my mind before you can say scat.
     
  309. I understand buy1s2 is trying apply something old to him in a new environment so one cannot judge the effectiveness on 1 trade that loses 7 points but it is a crying shame his methodolgy won't allow him to grab some good profits when the markets gives them to him. Maybe he is fine tuning his system? Anyway...I have found in life I usually learn the best things from people that had concepts I opposed strongly at first. So, I do hope he irons this out but more than that i hope he might share a little deeper about his methodolgy.
     
  310. Trying to go against short-term direction is always risky in trading business. Today is another example (see red circle) for traders who can't identify short-to-medium term direction.

    That said since ST direction is down, I'd look for opportunities to short instead of long during next few days/weeks.

    sc2.png
     
  311. Geez pin, thought u were leaving. Your constant second guessing isn't helpful it just makes it hard to page through the journal. B1 is ignoring you anyway.
     
  312. ok
    gotta go algofly. Can't say i'd blame him. I might ignore me too.
     
  313. Remaining long here with the current trade.
     
  314. I thought that your "10 times margin" trades were strictly day trades.
     
  315. Happy to explain.---The ability to hold overnight is related to the size of the stop. I had outlined day trades, swing trades and position trades in the past but to better clarify, I will now be posting just the level of margin I am using. Thus, todays loss would be equivalent to 70 ES points loss or roughly 3 percent of the full value of the underlying. Since I keep 20 percent or less of TLNW in the trading account, this equates to no more than .6 of 1 percent loss of TLNW.
     
  316. Still long. Price is 2264.25
     
  317. Good luck B1S2.

    Ol WWF Smack down pattern. Decent 12 point swing in the latter part of the session. It would have been a wild goose chase trying to catch the right level..... we've all been there b4 :D. Probs slight Vol pick up from the sell off for that decent run.


    Good luck Traders!!
     
  318. Out and short at 2270.00--Initial stop 2275.50--10 times margin.
     
  319. With the exit at 2270.00 this was a gain of 13.5 pts.
     
  320. Bulls not going quietly. Perhaps this is just pullback.
     
  321. We'll find out soon enough. I've got my stop in place. Price currently 2269.25 and I'm short from 2270.00
     
  322. Out and long at 2268.50 for gain of 1.5 points. Initial stop 2266.00
     
  323. Stopped for 2.75 pt loss
     
  324. :thumbsup::thumbsup:
     
  325. Long 10 x margin. 2264.75 initial stop 2256.00
     
  326. Full steam ahead--upward -- price currently 2262.25 so we're in the hole a bit, but there appears to be a nice buy here.
     
  327. --and here we go!
     
  328. Really like the buy signal that has just occurred. I'm already in, so in effect, I am taking it.
     
  329. Out at 2266.25 for 1.5 pt gain
     
  330. Well done B1. You appear to be taking some very small gains as well..... perhaps you are turning into a market-maker / HFT. :cool: You can add that to your list of different trades.:D.

    Nice 6 point run from the open. Have a nice weekend all.
     
  331. Trading is a zero sum game. It is impossible to have a zero sum game... like trading ...where rules consistently work. There, now I have opened a big can of worms!
     
  332. Actually since brokers and exchanges take a cut trading is actually a negative sum game for the buyer/seller.
     
  333. Yes, that is one reason it is so hard to learn to make money because even if one BE one is still losing. A trader is starting off a trade in the negative. In the Es a scalper has to make at least 1 point on the average trade to even make it worthwhile because of the comm...etc. But generally to make 1 point you need a 6 tick move.
     
  334. Excited about the upcoming week, should get some volatility back in the market with Trump administration.
    Intraday chart carry-over looks poised for Monday morning. One of my overused favorite patterns.

    https://www.screencast.com/t/jKLPR38Ec

    Have a good week !
     
  335. Rules can serve as guidelines but that is it. Traders think if they can just get a good set of rules up and and have the discipline to stick to them they will make money. Not so. Think about it logically for a moment. Why is it that there can be no set of rules that are consistently reliable?
     
  336. I trade my rules 100% during the market hours, I may tweak my rules after the trading day is done. This allows for flexibility as market conditions change but rigidity to not get emotional and trade in a way that I haven't tested.

    This way works well for me, your way likely works well for you so it's all good.
     
  337. Reliable rules cannot exist. If they did everyone would eventually use them and there would be no one to take the other side of a trade. This is upsetting to traders who seem to think that if they can JUST come up with a reliable set of rules then the game of trading will become profitable for them. However, all rules work some of the time and none work all the time. It is nigh impossible to know when they will work and when they won't. They usually work just enough of the time that they make us believe that with a little more tweaking they will work better. Hence we are always trying to tweak them. But there are just too many variables and unknowns in the market. And it is impossible to know all the "why's" of price movement. To every possible event that affects price movement there is a bullish and bearish interpretation. And many events are unknown and cannot be known at all and even if they were known they will never be known by all of the traders; be they retail or institutions.
     
  338. You are making arguments against your own positions. No two trade plans are exactly alike ergo no two sets of rules are exactly the same. One's set of rules simply need to work more than they don't across ALL market conditions. The variance in trade plans and respective set's of rules are what make markets.
     
  339. Now that is interesting. Now we are talking about probability which is the best anyone can hope for. Plans and rules don't necessarily make the markets. Irregardless of our plans or rules markets are always probing for value. Bulls are trying to drive it up..bears down. Effects on price movement are also connected to our human nature. For the most part only the institutions can move the markets. Generally a retail trader can't unless they are trading institutional size. Here is something interesting. Rules cannot be carved in stone and they cannot be everlasting. What once worked well may no longer work at all. Just ask the turtle traders. Or the soes raiders.
     
  340. There is a danger to rules. A BIG danger. One can fall into the trap of trading their rules and not trading the market.
     
  341. Correct, it is not our job as individual traders to "move" markets although collectively we "make" markets. Our job is to recognize the likely direction of markets (the institutions leave no shortage of clues as to their intentions). Our rules manage those expectations....whether our assessments of direction prove right or wrong, trade by trade.
     
  342. @pinabetal lets just agree to disagree and move forward.
     
  343. Hft's are responsible for about 70% of daily vol in say the ES, other institutions such a hedge funds..banks..pension funds...etc make up about 25%. We, the retail traders, make up about 5%. The markets are a battle between the bullish institutions and the bearish institutions. They are more concerned with taking money from each other. They care very little about us. We are potatoe chip money to them. And, as you say they cannot hide what they are doing. The PA on the chart reveals it all. However, it is even uncertain amongst them who will "make" the market. But their footprints leave us with some probability but even then they can make footprints and backtrack in them so to speak. We cannot know all the tactics they use. There is alot of uncertainty. The charts simply reveal who is winning. If we wish to be profitable but have to go with who is winning regardless of what our rules tell us. Rules can only be general guidelines at best. Rules cannot "make the market". They can be helpful to guide us in our interpretation of the market but the moment we "see" they are wrong in a particular circumstance then the only thing to do, the correct thing to do, to be profitable, is to cast them off as a heavy anchor and go with the flow. Put another way.....the market is always correct. Our rules are often times wrong.
     
  344. Ok. i gotta go algofly..however, i think we may be agreeing in many many ways. But there is uncertainty.
     
  345. Rules are designed to win over the long haul, not on individual trades. Successful trading is using PRM to your advantage over a long time. Review of each separate trade's results is meaningless. Thus, rules stay the same on each and every trade.
     
  346. Looking to buy here this morning.
     
  347. Long 10 x m 2261.50 Initial stop 2259.50
     
  348. Every successful trader trades on the basis of logical rules otherwise they are gambling and trading on emotions such as hope or fear...etc.
     
  349. Discipline is being responsible to do what you are supposed to do, when you are supposed to do it, how you are supposed to do it, all the while paying attention to detail and doing all the above even when you don't feel like it.
     
  350. So what is a trader supposed to do?
     
  351. Price currently 2263.50. Will be watching closely here. Stop remains the same for now.
     
  352. Perhaps for a quick scalp of 1 or two points. Odds favor a slide down.
     
  353. Although, with the sell stop so near, I don't really need to watch too closely.
     
  354. Take small losses. Take bigger gains. Same rules everyday.
     
  355. Do the markets stay the same on each and every day?
     
  356. Bulls are trying hard to push it up. Will they succeed? It is doubtful. But then again they may. Uncertainty. Markets gravitate towards uncertainty.
     
  357. Now the market is tipping its hand. Bulls are winning.
     
  358. If the 8:40 bar closes weak then the bo may be a failed BO. IF if it closes strong then bo will probally continue. There needs to be some follow thru.
     
  359. I suppose you didn't grab your profits? Expecting a continuation? There is still buying but the pb is nearing collapsing.
     
  360. Overall trend is up, can continue going up for an indefinite period, IMO just keep getting long.
     
  361. really? Trend is down from fridays high. Trends have inertia. But of course they have reversals too LOL
     
  362. Yes
     
  363. Overall trend is up

    Screen Shot 2017-01-23 at 14.57.35.png
     
  364. ROFLMAO! Markets are flexible. There are general principles that stay the same. For instance, there will always be Trends, PB, Ranges, Channels, but the way in which each is made is different from session to session as the markets probe for value. We have to take our profits when the getting is good because of that darn "mean" reversion. Don't you just love jumping out on pb after a handsome profit and locking in that profit then entering again if the previous move continues? Markets are flexible and uncertain. We must embrace that uncertainty and accept the fact they we can be wrong at any time. For instance buy 1 sell2 you had a very small actual risk this morning. I figured the odds favored maybe a couple of points profit for you before a slide down. Instead it handed you a handsome 5 or 6 points. Did you take them? Or are you holding thru this pb? If so why? You had a great RR. I would have grabbed it faster than you could say houdini.
     
  365. That longterm trend has nothing to do with daytrading or short term trading which is what buy1sell2 is attempting to do. Now if one is investing that long term trend carries more weight.
     
  366. Depends on how you go about skinning the cat, I prefer only to look for long signals within an overall uptrend.
     
  367. I gotta go or algofly will be on here chasing me away. See ya'll later bye for now. As MacArthur said ..."i shall return" unless i get banned which i may be on the verge of accomplishing unintentionally. Hope you grabbed your profit buy1sell4
     
  368. Stopped for loss of 2.25 pts
     
  369. Reader---------Markets never change. Price action may change from day to day, but markets are the same , day in and day out. The same rules apply each and every day.
     
  370. Well at least you are being honest. Many would say they jumped out.
     
  371. Well you cannot skin that short term cat with that long term knife. It is likened to skinning a squirrel with a machete. Cumbersome at best. You do eat squirrel don't you?
     
  372. Well now I agree and I respectfully disagree. Rules can be nothing more than guidelines to embrace probability. When they become the object and focus then we have erred. The goal is to make money not trade rules. For example here is a rule. "Follow the trend." But that needs to be defined. Which trend? JSS wants to follow the long term trend. That is fine and dandy. But that won't work for intraday trading. What happened two years ago has little if any impact on todays session. So, for todays session i should look for another trend. The trend from Friday's high (the prev) session was down and remained down all night. That has much more influence on todays session that some forgotton trend in 2013. As concerns PA. Well B.O. are the bulls exerting their influence to force price up. That happened right after the open RTH. but the overnight trend was down. So, a trader should wait and see if there is follow thru on the B.O. Simply because most B.O. fail. If we would have kept up HH and HL on swing legs on this mornings B.O. then yes probabilty favors long. But instead the B.O. collapsed. If i were long at this apparent collapsing my rules would promptly go into the garbage bin and i am getting immediately getting out and grabbing whatever profits i can get. There are rules for markets in general and then there are PA rules. But what REALLY rules is not my rules but the market is what RULES. I am not being very smart to argue with the market regardless of what my rules tell me. The market cares little about me or my finally crafted, tweaked, carefully designed, rules. The day to day PA is a fight between the bull and bear institutions. The chart will show you what they are doing and who is winning. See, at this moment on 10:05 bar we are rallying back to probally the ma after a wedge bottom (three pushes down). If i were long on this rally i would ride it until near the ma or for any little profit and then look for shorting. We do have a higher low but the PA TO LEFT says extreme weakness yet. So i would not ride any rally far. But if it turns into a good rally after it comes back to test the extreme then i may look at going long for a bigger haul. Otherwise, i am looking for shorting opportunities until PA shows me otherwise.
     
  373. You cannot make money consistently unless you are flexible simply bevcause the market is extremely flexible and to make money you have to follow the market not your rules. The market can go up or down further than anyone can imagine. It can also reverse back and forth for every few bars for longer than most think possible. I gotta go algofly will soon be here....bye ...again..
     
  374. Did anybody short after this rally to near the ma? Bye
     
  375. Depends on your definition of short term, few minutes to few days are both short term.
     
  376. Long 2256.75 10 X M. Initial stop 2151.00
     
  377. Why long now? Every P.B. Is barely getting close to the 21 period EMA. I would be shorting every P.B. until PA screams otherwise.
     
  378. You gonna get stopped out PROBALLY.
     
  379. All trades will be 10 times margin unless noted otherwise.. You'll probably be able to tell from the size of the stops anyway.
     
  380. nice buy signal here
     
  381. I DISAGREE with much of what you write, I have found I am 100% rule based, you program long enough, you think in terms of coding and rules. When you automated, there is no room for fudging unless you code for parameters to be accepted. PA never changes cause people never change, programming don't change cause they have to be based on time of when markets changed based on something occurring which is people moods. I have spend decades at finding alternating labels, market is strong and people are greedy, market looks toppy, people have fear, sell the rally in downtrend-dumb people are getting in early, market dropping on lite volume, people are deer in headlites as at some point they will get out so late I will be buying. I stopped thinking in terms of Bull/Bear or uptrend/downtrend, I think in terms of waves of a swing for day trading, and use bars of a wave for scalping-smaller you trade, there is noise you are collecting in ticks. I use to project what the market "should" do, but waste of brain energy-I know what it has done and wait for a rule based signal, I plain allowed the market to win and give up thinking when I manually trade, am 100% rule based trader, have the rules down like breathing, simple don't think-just do.

    You might be far better trader than I, most people are better than me as many ways I never had ability to do till later in life as I fought so hard in beginning that my way was way to trade, but gladly I gave up those ways and accepted who I am and what I can do, only then I been able to do what many can't which is accept, so much much easier.

    I see Buy1Sell1 as very good trader, he stays the course, doesn't allow anyone to alter how he trades, he is allowing anyone to look over his shoulder and stay the course.
     
  382. What size chart do you trade?(if you don't mind saying)
     
  383. I look at 1,5,15,60 and daily all in conjunction
     
  384. oh okay.thanks for sharing
     
  385. I gotta go as algofly is either lurking, on vacation, or actively lobbying to get me banned. Probally the later. Here are a few thoughts and picture of todays PA. slide1.jpg
     
  386. 2 or more need to be in tune with each other. 3 is better. This buy signal was a combo of the 1 and 5.
     
  387. And it may not have a lot of legs since the 15 isn't on board yet. We'll see
     
  388. I could never do that. My brain is too little to process all the info coming from that many charts and one or more would talk me out of an great trade. I only need one chart and one indicator ...a MA. I can do with volume or without volume. Sometimes vol throws me off and talks me out of perfectly good trade.
     
  389. what stops you from making your own journal? srs question. I'd sub because I roughly do the same thing
     
  390. Disagreeing is good. I tried to learn programming but was not smart enough. PA changes all the time. Everyday. Moment by moment. Every rally is different. Every decline is different. There are different amounts of buying and selling pressures in each decline or rally. They simply cannot be traded the same and have consistent profits. Well maybe for tiny profits. People (by that I mean the retail trader) doesn't make the market. Institutions do. They are fighting each other. Not us. We are coca cola money to them. We are in an auditorium watching a fight between the heavy weights. We try to determine who is winning and who keeps getting knocked down. All night and all morning the bears were winning except for a few hooks and haymakers that the bulls throwed. But the bulls were constantly having to pick themselves up off the mat. I know who I'd be betting on today. It isn't that hard to determine unless one can't "see clearly"...BUT......."I can see clearly now, the rain is gone, I can see all the obstacles in my way. Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind Its gonna be a bright (bright) bright (bright) day....Sun Shiny day. I think I can make it now, the pain is gone, All of the bad feelings have disappeared. Here is the rainbow I have been praying for Its gonna be a a bright (bright) bright (bright) Sun Shiny day. Look all around, there's nothing but blue skies..Look straight ahead, nothin but blue skies..written by Kenneth Gamble and Leon Huff. Can be applied to trading.
     
  391. Never have liked it. I just make notes on the fly on my charts and will sometimes look at them at end of the day. In another life...on another forum I did journal one time. What I do now is make comments on the fly and try to make them before they happen but sometimes while I am typing the action takes place and by the time I am done and actually post the comment it is over. Sometimes I get lucky and get it done in time and viewers can see it unfold live. I cannot type well. I peck. I am not very smart and I confuse people with my writing ...etc. Neither am I very well liked because I have a tendency to focus on the negative and failure or at least try to point them out and that kills peoples aspirations and they just want me to go away. I really do wish the best for all traders. But I apparently don't come across that way. Fortunately I have never been banned from a forum but I have been reprimanded. It is embarrassing. I will leave now. Got other things to do. Maybe one day I will journal but really even that can be faked so only real trading shows reality. PS I have never started a thread on any forum that I can remember. Even my journal years ago was in someone else's thread. Not even sure how to start a thread.
     
  392. Still long here with price at 2259.00. We cleared 2258.5 which was critical for legs.
     
  393. Will you take some profits? That mean mean mean reversion is ugly? This thing could head south again from bar 12:55. Or it could be a great long opportunity depending on the close of bar 12:55. I would be ready to go either way.
     
  394. Please don't tell us you are riding this back down. If you can get a good bar you still might pull it off but things aren't looking good. If bar 1:15 closes low i would say adios to any profits on the long side and make haste and cover. Actually, I would have already covered.
     
  395. Staying long here. The 15 now has joined in and should the hourly stay the way it is it will have come along as well. Price currently 2261.00
     
  396. I never went to school to learn to program, I started with Tradestation back in early 90s, when I got stuck, they had many folks on a forum and I would ask for help, then onto Ninja etc.

    Market makes same patterns each day, goes up, goes down, times it equals, makes triangles, angled lines, after awhile your beliefs can change of what it was 10 years ago. Those who go for homeruns want bungee cord to expand, those who play reversion to mean want cord to contract. In most of my trading from scalping to long term commodities I am reversion a mean of sorts-long term commodities unlike stocks seems to have contained extremes much more than stocks. I wish I could feel warm and fuzzy playing for homeruns in day trading, but I only know like a handful who are very consistent. When one finds something that works, trade it as much size as possible and should it stop working, find out how to adapt it.

    Here is what some seldom look to make money on, some will say it is "new PA" but what is changed for some is not for others. I watch where Friday's close, next week will try to touch last day of week's close, so if we gap away from it, I will have GTC to enter so many ticks away to close the gap. I, also, check what ES has done overnite in UK, if it moves 7-10 points down since their open, I will look for buy signals after US open but will increase size I trade to close some of the distance, looking for 1-8 ticks per signal.
     
  397. And now the hourly is on board.--Holding long
     
  398. How many contracts are you trading?
     
  399. I agree
    I agree. Homeruns for day trading are extremely hard to pull off. The key is to get really good making 1 to 5 points at a time with a win rate of about 60 to 70 percent. Occasionally, one can tap 8 points in one trade but that is rare. That is why if the market gives me 3 or 4 points but i think it will have another leg i will lock in the profit and then wait for PA to show me the next leg is indeed coming. I don't mind the extra comm. i don't like the roller coaster rides like buy1sell2 does. I had rather miss the second or third leg. But that is me. I only day trade so i am flat before the close. Get really good at just making even 2 points per day with trade size and some decent money can be made without all the up and downs.
     
  400. And of course average win needs to stay bigger than average lost which is trade management.
     
  401. I trade long term commodity trading. OMG the swings at some point become huge whether going up/down, I had to think in more of terms of percentages, much easier to take. Few months ago I was short and plus 25 points in ES on long term trade, then went back up but didn't stop out, then went down and at 40 points took 25% of contracts take profit, then went back up to stop me out. Then I got short on new highs and remain short. You have to just get use price bouncing, not for everyone.

    I see day trading as horrible way to make money cause of overall risk. I risk more in one day of day/scalping than all month in long term trading, only reason I continual is took me so long to figure out the game. I keep telling traders if you net $80 a day based on one lot then, get volume it to 50 lots is million a year. Too many think they have to day all day and they don't have to.
     
  402. I think you're on the sauce tonight. But that is ok, because I think you are correct and agree.
     
  403. Nobody mentioned compounding after a win, an optional strategy within the PRM 'arsenal'.

    [​IMG]
     
  404. +5 on the first 15 min bar
     
  405. I think this is very true by experienced traders, too often younger traders will say "well I have my stop loss in place, if trade is wrong, I will let stops take me out", I often think they don't know enough about charting where the chart can be telling them the trade most likely wrong and they can save "units" instead of just tossing away money and let markets stop them out. I believe those who have this in their automation or rules in manual trading will get out and save some money.
     
  406. No obvious reason to be short yet so I stay long for now
     
  407. Short SPY @226.90 as a swing trade
     
  408. Sell stop raised to 2260.25. Price currently 2270.75
     
  409. We are up 16 pts from the buy signal that I indicated on page 38
     
  410. Out at 2271.00 for gain of 14.25 pts
     
  411. Heading out for a bit. Will look to buy on a pullback later or tomorrow. If a short presents itself, I'll keep a short leash on it.
     
  412. Why did you get out here? Trend itself shows no sign of dissipating. Or do you think there's resistance here?
     
  413. Close to all time highs....that enough res for ya?
     
  414. We were also at all-time highs in mid-November...100 points ago. Just trying to understand others' views. There's nothing more that I would like than a pullback from here.
     
  415. 2nd batch of short SPY @227.41
     
  416. Overdone on the hourly and so will be looking for pullback on the 1, 5 and 15 for re-entry. I've missed an extra 5 points so far here.
     
  417. On the plus side, I was planning on taking at least 12 points, so I got 2.25 more than that. If I was at 4 X Margin instead of 10 X, I would still be in, but I would be behind in total gain between the 2 margin levels.
     
  418. ES just cracked contract high of 2277. If it retraces to 2270 over the next 1-2 days, I will add to my shorts. If it continues up or holds, I think it can continue.
     
  419. One further thing to mention for those keeping score--- This year on a per contract basis, I am down 11.75 pts with a win ratio of 46.15 percent. However--only 2 of my 13 trades were at 4 X margin. All the rest have been at 10 X. And one of those 2 trades was the loss of 30.25 pts . Thus, I am positive for the year since this relates to an equivalent loss of 12.1 pts when calculated against the 10X trades in terms of actual dollars.
     
  420. Short 2277.25 Initial stop 2281.00
     
  421. Out 2277.00 for gain of .25 pts
    Ill advised trade.
     
  422. L 77.00
     
  423. +1.00
    Unlike the morning session, target 1-3 ticks, but it is easier to get point in afternoon session because of the HFTs but on less volume.
    For me, any trade that is on other side of 18sma, ie uptrend and above the 18sma is high risk, so reversion to the mean of uptrend, new highs is the goal of any trader who is long but for me buying too high has less available profits.

    Reversion to the mean to me is new recent highs or lows and not the center as the center moves whereas I know where the previous highs/lows are.
     
  424. Am starting to luv HFTs, get in opposite of where they pushing it with volume, LOL
     
  425. Long 2277.25. Initial stop 2275.50
     
  426. Stopped out for 2 pt loss.
     
  427. What is it going to look like tomorrow?
     
  428. Trend day today! Doesn't happen often but there you go. I'd prefer a bit of yo-yoing / rollercoasting myself.
     
  429. Morrow be a tight range day?
     
  430. Reader---I'll show an example of margin usage here. It will be generic, but you'll get the idea. For this example, we'll use an ES contract size of $100,000. (it's a little more than that currently). We'll also assume a trading account size of $100,000
    -----So, for a trade with 10 X margin, you would need to trade enough contracts to control $1,000,000 worth of ES. That would be 10 contracts (10 time 100k equals 1 mil).
    ----A trade with 4 X margin, you would need to trade enough contracts to control $400,000 worth of ES. That would be 4 contracts (4 times 100k equals 400k)
     
  431. Therefore a trade at 10 X times margin that makes 5 points, would be a total of 50 points and a trade at 4 X margin that makes 5 points would be a total of 20 points.
    -It therefore follows that the same is true for trades that lose those same points.
    --So the 10X margin trades carry 2.5 times more weight than 4 X margin trades.
     
  432. It can be seen then that a 4X trade losing 30.25 points using our established generic numbers earlier, would be a loss of 121 points. ---and a 10X trade would only need 12.1 points to make up the difference and breakeven.--exclusive of commissions of course.
     
  433. This is why even though trades on a per contract basis show a loss for the year, the margin usage actually results in a positive result so far in 2017.
     
  434. We are 32 points higher from the buy signal I called out on Monday. If I had traded that signal with 4X margin, I would still be in, but would just now be getting to the gains I achieved by pulling the plug yesterday on the 10X margin trade.--Of course I could have just stayed in with the 10X and really done well, but over the long haul, rules told me that the positive move was to pull trade.
     
  435. In other words, normally we would have some pullback and I could re-enter with the 10X trade. If I had been in the 4X trade, I could have just held and let it pullback and rode it higher due to less risk. This time we really didn't have the pullback except overnight and I don't sit up all night watching charts.
     
  436. My system uses similar calculations when deciding on the position size. I think a more correct term to use in this case is "leverage", not "margin".

    So, in your example of account size of $100K and the ES contract size of $100K, the position of 10 ES contracts would mean 10:1 leverage.
     
  437. Correct. It's semantics. I use the term margin simply because I create my own margin. I never look at exchange minimums.
     
  438. A loss 30 points ES at 4X would be 120 points or $6,000. This would represent 6% of the trading account, but only 1.2 % of TLNW. --Calculations on total risk are always taken against TLNW.
     
  439. Might be one or two days early. I suspect resistance in this area near 2300 and dow 20k
     
  440. For day/scalp trading I strictly go one lot per 10k of funds, long term commodities from 0.5 to 1% risk of the acct to find how many, stocks 1% of acct. It has changed much since have gotten older to half of what I use to risk, much more conservative.
     
  441. 10k of account value or 10k of TLNW?
     
  442. Short 10 X margin. 2293.50 Initial stop 2295.25
     
  443. S 92.00
     
  444. s 92.50
     
  445. out at 93
     
  446. One lot for every 10k in the that account.
     
  447. Long 2293.50 Initial stop 2289.00
     
  448. Consolidation day not surprising after two trenders.
     
  449. Es is going down not up
     
  450. Hardly down at all, it's been nothing but bulls for years.
     
  451. LOL I am talking about today. I care a little about a week ago. I care much less a month ago. And years ago. Doesn't have to enter my imagination. Means nothing to me. But i could be wrong. It may go UP today. Megaphone pattern. Can go both ways. Finally will break out above or below. Odds favor below. But it can be scalped both ways up bottom towards top. ...down top towards bottom...until BO occurs.
     
  452. Could correct, could wobble around for the rest of the day or it could break back out of consolidation...who knows...just take your signals.
     
  453. Weakness all night..bear channel. Plus below red 89 period SMA means general trend is down and good for shorting opportunities....bulls and bears fighting in megaphone pattern. Bears have slight advantage. break out of purple trendline. test below 21 period MA then test of extreme with Gap ...then sell signal. Gaps following. Finally lower high within megaphone pattern. Of course, it could head back to top of Megaphone and break out and the whole truckload head north. If so, then what I write means nothing and is hogwash. The market rules. I only say the ODDS favor what I write. Bye
    ES1-26-2017.jpg
     
  454. Pullback likely complete here. Staying long
     
  455. Well ...ok....good luck. Bye
     
  456. Why do you keep saying bye and then return to posting? Odd behavior.
     
  457. I'm odd. Bye
     
  458. :D
     
  459. Continuing long here.
     
  460. What was that? Options buyers would have got smoked during that session.
     
  461. why
     
  462. staying long. my stop might be too close but i can always get back in if stopped
     
  463. Price currently 2295.50
     
  464. Stopped out for loss of 4.75 pts
     
  465. Long 2289.75 Initial stop 2281.25
     
  466. Why? Is there a logical reason for going long here? Could you share your reasoning?
     
  467. I think we call that a Trade secret.:) forgot to say, that they don't always work:)
     
  468. ES 2-27.jpg Here is what I see. I could be wrong though. However, I think the odds favor this described PA (in caps) taking place.
     
  469. Trade showing a lot of potential here. I'll keep long right now. Price currently 2289.25
     
  470. Oh. I was not aware there are any trading secrets. It is all out in the open for all to see. No secret formulas IMO. Just skill to read price action and embrace uncertainty as part and parcel of the game. That is why I will attempt to anticipate future PA but have no problem with changing my mind faster that you can say "turtle" if price action proves me wrong. I will spin on a dime and go the other way if PA gives me reason to believe my first premise was wrong. The markets are flexible and one must be flexible. Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods ..well..no real secrets..all out in open for all to see but not many can duplicate their achievements because of lack of skill for one reason or the other...lack of practice...dedication...passion...etc But anyone was free to copycat them and watch their every move in slow motion if they wanted to. The old saying "practice makes perfect" applies. Most do not have the perseverance to practice..and practice..and practice..until they get it. No secrets. That said, it is good to understand the tactics and strategies that others use to see if they are something one wants to practice and practice and get good at. Buy1 methodology may not suit me, or you, but it is good to share. Who knows it may? I can see no reason to just post short here. Long here ..profit X here..loss X here..What good is that doing anyone? Maybe just keeping the poster disciplined or beefing up ones prowness...who knows? Just seems to me forums are for sharing, are they not? Anyway, Gotta go. Bye
     
  471. Very vague. This teaches me nothing. I may watch this thread a few more days but if things don't get more detailed where I can learn something new to possibly apply then think I may leave this thread. Do I hear an applause! Algofly will be extremely happy! He is tired of reading my BS posts. I am getting tired of writing them. But at least I have tried to share some real trading concepts. Even if one considers them total BS at least I tried. Gotta go for today. Will check back tomm. bye
     
  472. I have a few things to attend to. I will let the trade mature or get stopped and check back after while. ---Izzy
     
  473. Personally I see basing price action, continuation of upside is quite likely.
     
  474. Exactly. The trend is up and I wish to buy pullbacks.
     
  475. Furthermore there is a nice buy signal on intraday charts.
     
  476. Daily is in correction mode.
     
  477. If you mean correction/pullback, I agree. Tues and Wed were overdone and market needed to back and fill. However, I believe that I have identified the area that we are correcting to and am interested in being long here. My stop was too close I think as I outlined in a previous post, and that is why I re-entered quickly.
     
  478. Nice buy signal here and I will stay long
     
  479. Still have a couple of hours to go. If nothing happens or stopped out, I will try again Sun/Mon. ---Plenty of time left today though.
     
  480. That's why binary options suck, when you add time restrictions to premature moves the sauce starts tasting like Indian gravy ;)
     
  481. Trading intraday of a daily chart is hard to pull off. I understand he may be going at least some of the time for the bigger swings over a few days but intraday it seems to me should be done on intraday charts which i thought he was doing with 1hour..30 minute..15..min charts??? Maybe i was wrong? It might be better to follow a George Douglas Taylor strategy if trading strictly larger daily swings. Taylor uses a 3 day cycle that can be traded for bigger swings.
     
  482. That depends on TF
     
  483. I take my signals off a combo of 3k and 10k tick charts and often will not look at the daily for several days but I did note that it was correcting back down from "overbought" conditions. I didn't see much in the way of support but B1 has his own trade plan to which he evidently adheres.
     
  484. Ok this is what we want. A point or two selloff 30 minutes before close to give a springboard up. That point or two may be enough for folks to get long
     
  485. Jeez, just got filled on a short I had on for 3 hours. Stark contrast to the old ER days when you won or lost in seconds.
     
  486. Have a good weekend folks.
     
  487. The Pitcher is in pour mode on larger timeframes, except the daily. The 240 is just rounding for a pullback. if Asia take's us higher than 2am should take us lower.:)
     
  488. I don't agree with this. All times frames look to be trending up save the hourly.
     
  489. 120,90,60,30, the 240 is rounding for a pullback, do you want anymore? Pitcher in pour mode, I'm referring to the Bollinger Bands;)

    Just because we are pitching south doesn't mean the end is near.
     
  490. 120 , 90 and 30 are too much information and can be discarded poste-haste. The 240 that you mention has pulled back but is still in upward mode as are daily, weekly, monthly.
     
  491. to then get whipsawed out before the close. Bye have a good weekend. :D
     
  492. yeah, the weekly and monthly aren't for everyone, just to much information. The details support my view. As you have said in the Past, this is why they call it a market.:D

    The 240mn is rounding for a pullback, weekends provide time for reassessment, the news could be kicked aside and the markets continue to climb the wall of worry.
     
  493. The 240 has already pulled back and is poised to go higher. Could the 240 pull back further?----certainly.
     
  494. Yes but the 240 is a compilation of price data that comes from smaller time frames. It all starts with the tick and works its way up and a mixed close on the 240 is nil if not supported by buyers.

    can be a false positive, but yes it can go up?
     
  495. I disagree with your analysis. To me , the 240 is in an uptrend and pullbacks should be bought.
     
  496. You can, but I never said that the trend has ended. I don't own a crystal ball:rolleyes:
     
  497. With that very low range. There would have been no survivors. Both calls and puts. Time decay would have ripped through everything.

    Any option buyers heart would have skipped a beat when they saw that pattern.
     
  498. what expiration would be on the these options?
     
  499. ;)
     
  500. The ones that expired last fri and possibly this fri. You can't day-trade any further out because of to much premium IMO.
     
  501. ES Real 1-27-2017Slide2.jpg Yes, as i said in my chart in post #471 there would be likely sideways action before the trend continues down. That is what happened the rest of the day as this chart shows. Then ES opened gap down sunday. However, it could work its way back up by the open of RTH on Monday 1-30 or the trend may continue down. Not enough info at this moment to determine. Here is the complete chart for Friday showing the ranging behavior up till close. The circles in the ranging behavior are indicative of further weakness.
     
  502. Here is the gap down sunday 29th Bye ES 1-29.jpg
     
  503. As indicated Fri, I will try the long again Sun/Mon. Here we go---
     
  504. Long 2280.75 Initial stop 2274.50
     
  505. Stopped for loss of 6.5 pts
     
  506. Long 2272.50 Initial stop 2261.00
     
  507. Gap closure

    Screen Shot 2017-01-30 at 14.46.33.png
     
  508. The daily has now corrected into a buy zone.
     
  509. Whatever kind of signals you are looking at they aren't intraday. You will just keep suffering losing trades using those signals. I suggest watching what the market is actually doing. It is weak. And screaming that to us. Bears are winning clearly. I wouldn't be going long until I saw some strong buying pressure followed by a weak retest of the extreme low with that then followed by a good reversal signal.
     
  510. I haven't had an intraday buy signal since Thursday morning but we all have our own trade plans.
     
  511. Remaining long here. My view is that there is a better than 50 percent chance that we'll see upside the rest of the day.
     
  512. Why? What reasoning for this? Market continues weak and has shown no strenght. I would let the market shows some strenght before i would even consider an upside for the rest of the day. It would interesting to know "why" your view is upside for the rest of the day. It may well turn out that way but at the moment nothing at all indicates that posture..at least to me. All i see is weakness.
     
  513. Intraday PA. What does it say? Gotta run bye. ES 1-30-2017.jpg
     
  514. The key here will be printing 2269.50. If we do that we'll likely have legs.
     
  515. And while I typed, we printed it. Odds of upside have now increased.
     
  516. One more chart. Gotta go. bye

    slide3.JPG
     
  517. Higher intraday low on Naz.
     
  518. This test of the extreme low happening as I type could end up being a higher low reversal or a lower low reversal but it needs to be in the general area of the prior extreme low and the test itself NEEDS to be weaker than the test to the MA. All that will show some buying pressure. If the test to the extreme low ends up being stronger that the prev test up to the ma then the test up to the MA may just end up being a flag and trend could well continue down. However, with three bull bars in the test to the MA I lean towards a HL trend reversal BUT A FEW MORE BARS WILL tell the tale. Bye
     
  519. May get a measured move up. Really gotta go. Things to do. Will check back later in day...Bye.. slide4.JPG
     
  520. Remaining long here.
     
  521. We'll likely at least get into the low 80's today or tomorrow.
     
  522. Staying long overnight.
     
  523. I wouldn't be holding long overnight after the measured move was made. Price could certainly retrace the whole move up. Good luck.bye

    ES 1-30.jpg
     
  524. Quite a sell off!

    Did any1 short from the open?
     
  525. Here is what happened after the measured move was reached.

    slide7.JPG
     

  526. IMO, rth(regular trading hours) opening and closing volume can not be used to determine "exhaustion" as these times ALWAYS have high volumes in relation to the day. However, relative to previous open/close periods is appropriate.

    IMO.
     
  527. yes, generally that is correct. However, in this particular case, the market, still weak from the open of rth the big vol does carry abit more weight coupled with the fact that the bar on which it took place closed weak which means this volume was more likely than not selling activity. Some institutions were selling alot near the close of rth. Overall the trend was down for the day but in the shorter tf view it was up from the bottom of the measured move to the top of it which was reached also near the rth close. For me, i would pay attention to that kind of vol in such a context. It certainly was not retail traders creating this selling vol.
     
  528. How hilarious, This is a clue:confused:, closing volume, always varies, always, always, always. It has varied for the last 30+ years and beyond, that eye can remember.;)

    Volume , on rare occasion's can be used and not on the close. This thread is cluttered with your giant charts. As if we don't get enough screen time, really.:D
     
  529. Yes...very hilarious! ROFLMAO
     
  530. Volume can be quite deceptive. I wouldn't personally argue against sophisticated studies of volume as it would be hypocritical of me to argue against something I haven't seen in action, yet I must add if strike rate is average than I fail to see the benefit of its primary dependency or implementation as a secondary tool.
     
  531. Continuing long here.
     
  532. Huge buy signal!
     
  533. If the ES cant get over the 50ma on the 30mn, its a waterfall:cool:
     
  534. I went short at the open, holding on. Good luck to the longs...
     
  535. The 1mn B-band Pitcher is in the works :)
     
  536. Is gas in a car tank useless? Volume is activity. Volume is $$. Therefore it shows where money is being put. While it can't be completely trusted ..because of brokers...data feeds...dark pools..etc it can be useful in showing the larger footprints of institutional money. In the end some volume is shown and it is generally good enough to be useful. The real first problem is most traders do not know how to interpret it. The second problem is it can complicate trading on a small TF and cause one to miss a good trade trying to correlate price and volume.
     
  537. R
    Really?
     
  538. They will need more than luck. Even my pretty charts couldn't convince anyone. I put out the warning that price could retrace the entire measured move instead I get hounded about closing vol yada..yada..being unreliable...yada...yada..however, in the context in which I used it it wasn't now was it?
     
  539. I have constant volume charts open side-by-side, I like how it evens out moments of high and low activity so you can see clearer patterns by volume; what may look like a quick volume burst on the charts may be sectioned into an orderly move on the volume chart. I've considered only seeing volume, but it's also worth knowing how fast the action happens, and NinjaTrader7 doesn't have a great way to measure time on the volume charts.
     
  540. You are correct but the volume that once was is gone for now, and what's left produces more false signals.
     
  541. If price breaks south of yesterdays close longs are in big trouble. If it holds we will probally get BIG ranging behavior today. Good for two legged scalps of 2 to 5 points.....over and over again...
     
  542. Elementary my dear Watson, tell us something new:D
     
  543. You mean like cheap gas in the tank? ROFLMAO
     
  544. Buy signal still in place here. Staying long.
     
  545. You be smarter than I first thought LOL
     
  546. Good grief. Ok
     
  547. get the horses ready more selling coming
     
  548. After that divergent high on the daily, a complex correction is not surprising.
     
  549. Non-valid example, because without fuel engine will not run. Volume does of course move price, but in which direction? One moment volume is driving price higher, next moment and it's driving price lower. To me, looking at volume for directional clues has never worked, saying that I have never delved deep enough after having witnessed others that do come up with similar win/loss ratio as my own.

    So why ovetcomplicate? I just look for price patterns + implementation of PRM.
     
  550. This buy should carry us at least into the low 2280's
     
  551. If we take out yesterdays lows, am more inclined to think it corrects into the 30s-40s.
     
  552. Here is an example from this mornings price action on a 5 min chart. I will probally get a boatload of derision....
    Slide1.JPG
     
  553. Bro, real-time calls please. Historical examples are not so evident, as real-time.
     
  554. A second example happening this morning right after the first. If you see more than one set of footprints on the beach they might be pointing out the direction of the walk.

    Slide2vol.JPG
     
  555. Looks great for upside now.
     
  556. L
    I just told you beforehand in post #550 that more selling was coming. Price was at MA and correlated with vol it indicated more selling coming. That was statement was made 38 minutes ago before this present selling took place. Are you reading my posts? This was good for a 3 point scalp. It was a gift but narry a person took it as in the dark corners of their minds mockery and derision were reigning supreme.
     
  557. wrong ...more selling coming. At least for a scalp maybe more.
     
  558. Certainly does. Buy signal from this morning intact and receiving more confirmation.
     
  559. A third example correlating vol with price and range. From this mornings action. I gotta go. Have a trip to go on. Will leave the longs sweating it out.

    Slide3vol.JPG
     
  560. I got stopped out.
     
  561. Hopefully not too bad
     
  562. Last post. Got a trip. May be able to trade while on trip if my son drives. Did anybody take the trade? No way Jose. Most never listen. Channel down..Trend down..Bear bars..price below MA's...Big range bars..big gaps in bars ...what more could one want.bye

    Slide5vol.JPG
     
  563. Long continuing to look good here.
     
  564. I've had one long signal since Thur morning and that was yesterday afternoon....nothing but shorts this morning.
     
  565. As indicated prior, the buy signal from this morning should propel at least into the low 80's
     
  566. Then you better hope that last leg down was the final as it came within 5 ticks of your stop.
     
  567. More confirmation now on the buy signal!
     
  568. It's a great looking chart here for longs.---
     
  569. L 68.25
     
  570. -2.00 win some loss some
     
  571. 1 unit, minimum gain 3 units.
     
  572. Definitely staying long on this one. More and more confirmation is arriving. If stopped out, I will look to re-enter long.
     
  573. Short term goal is to print 70 and then we'll be off to the races.
     
  574. Boy your a bruiser for punishment! You remind me of that wild bronc I broke in and taught to rein back in the 1970's in the country of Belize. He was an insistent booger.
     
  575. Slide6vol.JPG

    I am on the road traveling. Was able to check the chart. Here is what I found. Scalps...scalps...and more scalps...
     
  576. Today's low had a lot of support on daily congestion. If this pulls back before my nap in about 45 minutes, it will be my first long signal of the day.
     
  577. 2270 has printed. We'll likely see higher by end of day as everyone gets long. ---Looking good
     
  578. I am hopeful that the race higher is at turtle pace. Those are the serious moves typically.
     
  579. Eyelids are closing, hasta manana kids.
     
  580. Hasta la vista
     
  581. AAPL reports later.
     
  582. My last post for the day. And everyone shouts YES!

    Slide7vol.JPG
     
  583. well this is last post. I suppose buy2 is still long???
     
  584. And we did. I'm still long here.
     
  585. Really? Then please indulge us and give us the high and low of the day for tomm ....before tomm.

    Thanks
     
  586. I figured that. Hold onto your hat please.
     
  587. Looks good on the long right now. I'll check later this morning.
     
  588. Price is 2281.00. Looks good here to stay long.
     
  589. Well ok..just don't get married to it:D
     
  590. Trend is long here. Market has pulled back intraday. This is a great intraday buy signal at 2277.50.
     
  591. I guess you still holding long eh?
     
  592. Yeah, had double TF divergence on that high to signal a correction.
     
  593. yes
     
  594. One must remember, in order to follow my rules, I am willing to give all profits back and then some if need be.
     
  595. I don't get scared out of the pot.
     
  596. a little fear is good:D:D
     
  597. well ok...makes no sense. then you trading rules not the markets. BUT it is your moola. Good luck.
     
  598. Come on Naz
     
  599. no sell signal yet in this market.
     
  600. Should've taken profits at the open ;_;
     
  601. Pullback too fast, likely no legs.
     
  602. Gain not large enough for me unless there was a sell signal.
     
  603. Coulda Shoulda Woulda has no place in an arsenal of a seasoned trader. Each position has to run its full coarse, whatever it is. Mine is x3 of risk, I'd rather be stopped out than accept a crap deal.

    I've heard it so many times people say "profit is profit, at least it's not a loss". That attitude hardly ever is sustainable.
     
  604. Looks like ES is making a head and shoulder bottom on 1min and 5 min charts.
     
  605. Low risk high reward point on Naz
     
  606. Buy1sell2 had about nigh 13 point profit in the bag this morning and now he is gonna let it slide right thru his fingers....again. I'd vote to hell with running the course and the rules...ad nauseum. The market gives me 13 points i'm taking them. He already had a goodly profit (went long friday at 2372.50) went up to 2278 monday .. then he proceeded to ride it all the way down yesterday to nigh getting stopped out. He got lucky and got another push back up to 2285 yesterday and last night. Now he is riding it back down again. In my books thats crazy. Me thinks he should perhaps not be talking about fear but more about greed. The market doesn't care abit about ones rules. Anyway, maybe he will get lucky again today and get another push up. If he does then he best make haste and grab his profit. A body just can't tempt luck too much..too often. Or he could just go back to day or weekly swing trading as he isn't intraday trading by no standards, imo BUT good luck to him. Maybe it will work out for him.
     
  607. Tremendous second confirmation of intraday buy signal here at 2272.00
     
  608. Ok great! I gotta go on the road again ....see you guys later. May your day be prosperous. Bye
     
  609. Within 5 pts

    [​IMG]
     
  610. L 73.25
     
  611. Closed 3pts earlier for x3.85 risk
     
  612. got a buck
     
  613. My risk for scalping is like the same for day trading, way too high, but don't have a choice.
     
  614. Did you clip a buck out of the Starbucks tip jar?
     
  615. They clipped me when I bought it, but was hedged, so...
     
  616. Why the hedging intraday?? Time and commissions wasted-no?
     
  617. Another great intraday signal here at 2271.
     
  618. Stop would be 2269.00
     
  619. This long signal continues
     
  620. Intraday sell signal. 2274.00
     
  621. Stop would be 2275.75
     
  622. L 74.25
     
  623. Pretty tight stops on those last 2 signals. Usually your stops seem like they are a bit wider.
     
  624. These are extremely short term.
     
  625. got a buck
     
  626. Intraday short signal 2274.75. Stop would be 2276.75
     
  627. I had bought SBUX stocks for long term trade, I stopped day trading them for awhile now.
     
  628. Short signal negated.
     
  629. Think it going to grind on up slowly
     
  630. The coffee beans or your wedgie?
     
  631. Yea, it is coming up for coffee time. I been working on some new stuff in my large head, rattle rattle, actually a with trend day trading system for larger profits but trades all day-yawn, take out a buck then trail, boring as hell-am waiting for buddy to program it. I prefer to not watch all day and have to think too.
     
  632. That pattern was similiar to that boring pattern on Friday. Although this was more interesting with a greater range. IV will be higher due to no / limited upswing.

    Good luck with the next session every1!
     
  633. Who's still long here? If this keeps up, gonna gap down beneath all of today.
     
  634. Papier-mâché
     
  635. The market or my observation?
     
  636. Our colleague buy1sell2
     
  637. You missed the point of the entire excerise.
    I was me merely showing by example continuous proportions of extreme price action and
    how they were bond and interrelated by a single mean, the open range vector on a 4 minute chart.
    I never reference that I predicted the high low of the day in advance as you made reference.
    I do frequently buy and sell the high and lows of the trading day.

    Yesterdays open Sell 16 minute. (Wed 2.1.17)

    https://www.screencast.com/t/2PwO70frghK8
     
  638. Staying long here with price at 2270.00. Longer term bottom now forming.
     
  639. Looks like major move could be in the offing today.
     
  640. My stop is a little close at 2261.00 --probably should be 2251.00 We'll see. I never move stops away from trade so we've got what we've got.
     
  641. We're likely looking at a trend day up today for 30 points or more.
     
  642. The stop has been too close the entire trade, but has worked out so far.
     
  643. L 72.25
     
  644. Looking for long trades today is the proper bent.
     
  645. Made a buck and have runners, "BE" stops in.

    Just a matter of what tests out well, and you become a computer doing the same things over and over, like Lucy taking candy off conveyor belt till you mess up and candy all over the place and you have losses.
     
  646. You don't have the computer pulling the trigger for you?
     
  647. Gap fill is now only 8 points away. We're at 2279.00
     
  648. out at 75.50 +3.25
     
  649. Not on new systems, I back test them, then do little paper trading and now trading 2 lots till best friend programs it. On old systems are automated. Don't see point of having it programmed if don't work real time. Something to do while I am still here.

    It is like the new scalping method I made couple months ago, I keep trading it to try to make improvements until programming is done then see if that is making right entries/exits for six months before doing one lots for another six months then add on lots, long process but safe way to do so.
     
  650. Bypassing all short signals right now.
     
  651. Long SPY 227.88
    Stop 227.68
     
  652. Wouldn't the stop make better sense at 227.23?
     
  653. Really though 226.67 is the best stop placement in my view. 227.23 could work, but I think 226.67 to be the best.
     
  654. -20c
     
  655. Long Long Long! We're at 2276.00
     
  656. cliff dive
     
  657. L SPY 227.39
    stop at 227.14
     
  658. or maybe a little lower----we're at 2272.00 er hehe
     
  659. :D
     
  660. Still looking only long today.
     
  661. You have very big balls for the roller coaster. :thumbsup:
     
  662. Overshooting the last leg back into the gap is not bullish...but I just take my signals, long or short
     
  663. His style of trading is not for me but I admire that he sticks to his trade plan.
     
  664. I was wrong at 2276, but I believe we should be near the bottom on this pullback around 2270. I still like the long outlook.
     
  665. keep looking and dreaming
     
  666. doubt he has one
     
  667. Bye bye
     
  668. I've seen him stick to his stops and targets with regularity...his methodology?...no clue. I am often in positionally different directions but that is normal among traders given different time frames, objectives, personal characteristics etc.
     
  669. The quick pullback was likely just that and not reversal. I'll stay long here as I believe this area of 2270-2271 is the bottom of pullback and afternoon should see a large rise. If not, I may be stopped out but toes still tapping.
     
  670. Will this potential bounce lead to upside? Looking at Naz (x3.15 risk)


    Screen Shot 2017-02-02 at 17.22.39.png
     
  671. At the moment there is still potential for it to bounce of of 2268, but this should be the area----where we are now.
     
  672. Still looking very good for longs here. There has been no sell signal today.
     
  673. May get a little pullback here again at 2275.50 before resuming up for the afternoon
     
  674. L 76.00
     
  675. L 74.75
     
  676. L 75.75
     
  677. made buck and BE

    Have 4 point stops on others.
     
  678. Still potential to bounce down off of 2268 but trend remains long.
     
  679. LONG LONG LONG 2273.00
     
  680. Out for a while. Will let it run with stop still in place. We're currently at 2276.75
     
  681. Back--It's possible that I am dim-witted, but I just continue to see long. Maybe the push will be tonight or tomorrow. We do still have 45 minutes here. I remain long
     
  682. Out here at 227.81
    +42c
     
  683. I am very emboldened by the RTH close and am looking towards building on that tonight and tomorrow. :)
     
  684. 4 PT stop held on this one and made a buck and a tick.
    L 76.00 lost 4 bucks twice, I forgot to set the volume stop, geeez

    But I did learn some interesting nuances. I am trading ES but taking off the signals on different new instrument that I have made by combining 2 other instruments, I can take trend trades & Scalping on ES using 50ma, but other instrument signals much better by using the ES trend. Now I just use regular old RSI14 and look for DD/TD double/triple divergences based on closes and that stops me from taking more signals, also when RSI goes beyond 70/30 stops trail on each bar. What I really excited about is when I get DD/TD, I can use shorter ma on new instrument and when that changes trend, I can scalp with high percentage plays and most of the time the trend on ES changes.

    The morning was more rewarding than afternoon, I do hope all of you did well.
     
  685. Nice. Since you weren't planning on holding overnight, I can see the reasoning for the smaller stop that you used. One question though---when you took the first trade, SPY was overbought or nearly so on the 5 min chart. When you took the second trade, we had had pullback. Why did you take the first trade?
     
  686. "Turn those machines back on---"
     
  687. First trade I thought we were in the midst of a breakout to the upside, and I got in on a very small pullback assuming that the shorts were trapped. I was wrong.

    Second trade was a different kind of setup.

    But I gave up 'proper trading' a good year or so ago so don't listen to me. You may (or may not) remember me from this thread! I just trade small size as a hobby now. I actually enjoy it, but the idea of making a living out of it was something that I had to give up on after about 6 years of giving it my best, fulltime.
     
  688. -1 unit
     
  689. Checking in here this morning. Looks like we have had some good long movement for my position overnight. I will be monitoring as the day progresses.
     
  690. A large portion of the real moves happen outside of Regular Trading Hours. Looking at the bigger picture is extremely beneficial.
     
  691. My belief is that breakout trades need much larger stops and likely need to be held overnight unless perhaps they are being taken on the 1 minute chart. --Tight stops would be more in an oversold/overbought condition with fresh momentum.
     
  692. Sell signals today should be looked at for profits of 2 or 3 pts only. If it goes farther than that, that's fine, but 2 or 3 is all that should be taken and then move on. ---Until a sell signal on larger frame presents itself.
     
  693. Getting on the elliptical for a bit. Will check on status later.
     
  694. 60 minute chart overbought. Taken by itself , it means nothing. Several frames need to be looked at.
     
  695. If you took the short signal on the 1 minute chart at 2293.00, you may want to take your profit at 2290.25 here and re-assess.
     
  696. What was the short signal on the one minute?
     
  697. The action on the 12:13 bar