Here are rollover dates for the foreseeable... http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/rolldates.html For US indexes, rollover begins the 2nd Thursday of the expiration month. Expiration is the 3rd Friday of the expiration month, fwiw. Like speedo, volume usually dictates when to change, usually the Friday, but in all cases, for me, no later than the following Monday. Right now, ES volume is just nearing the 50/50 point. NQ volume however has already shifted.
Before the calendar gurus and knitpickers get here, I'll correct... rollover begins on the Thursday PRIOR to the 2nd Friday of the expiration month. US indexes expire the 3rd Friday of the expiration month.
Only one who knows how I do it is my best friend and partner, so how I do formulas of how I do it will never be explained, but it is much more complicated than I ever would have thought 30 years ago. But I trade much more like a true Hedge or how they should hedge. Ex. Say I Long 100k shares of IBM and in uptrend, S&P500(big contract) is in same uptrend, so taking the total value of IBM, I will place more contracts short in Big S&P than that value to hedge when system sees probabilities of cycle top has formed (have 65/35) of being right, which is better than my win/loss on opening positions, I don't even want to sell IBM cause it might been bought in 2009 and paying dividends, but I don't want to take any loss on down move, so get short futures which in turn will be hedged by options on both sides. The way they are put on are never at once, there is always small risk, but my percentages show me not to worry. I have spent last several weeks doing "what if", which in risk management is much of "what ifs", how much can I top out as my plans are to form a hedge fund, so I think I can safely hedge up to 15 billion. This is not to say we would ever get close to that as I am not per se a quaint, and numbers are just numbers to me. When you see Buffett, doubt he ever dreamed of being where he is today. But my life has turned from being "terminal" few years ago to now going to gym twice a day, I will never be 100% normal both mentally nor physically, I see and hear things my entire life, depressions and have diseases that have no cure but we each have battles in life. So yes, do have collars, but if different ways and times and products. And some would also call it a stock spread to hedge as well. I do well on doing spreads in commodities and stock/etf's, same patterns, but it is a form of hedging.