Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by bone, Nov 16, 2012.
what am I supposed to see
Maybe you could see an opportunity to post a chart of interest yourself, perhaps ?
The candles are the Gasoil / Brent crack (in the ratio of 4:3) and the blue line is UK Natural Gas
Interesting chart Bone.
Heating oil increases in value over winter, but I guess the spread doesn't behave like that every winter.
It pays to watch these spreads so that you're ready when something unusual happens.
Any thoughts as to why the spread acted like that? Corn / ethanol?
For me, at least, the explanation is due to refinery capacity restraints. Seasonal heating load demand is not the answer, because we have not gotten into any heating loads and weather as of yet, and if Heating Degree Days were to have spiked you would have seen a corresponding spike in the Nat Gas spread. I say refining also because the CL Jan-Feb13 calendar spread did not correlate, but the HO vs CL Jan13 Crack Spread did.
You can see how I marked vertically the period where the HO Cal started it's move up in isolation. Eventually, the BTU differential reluctantly dragged the Nat Gas Spread along for the ride.
bone would you mind posting a daily of the wti f/h or g/h spreads?
I just heard on tv today, for the first time in history, brent volume surpassed wti. You ever do anything with brent vs wti?
I consider WTI vs. Brent more of a pure divergence/convergence type of trade personally. Much like US Tens vs. Eurex Bunds. I'm not saying that it's bad per se, I'm just expressing my viewpoint that it behaves more like a pure directional bet than the way a "spread" is traditionally thought to perform.
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