September 18 Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, said Washington's serial bail-outs are the inevitable result of the credit bubble of preceding years. "This was all baked in the cake long ago. What we have seen so far is just a dress rehearsal for the deep recession that is coming. America is going to be losing 500,000 jobs a months. That is when we will see interest rates go to zero. The deficit will be covered with printed money as it was in Japan. The endgame will be helicopters full of cash dropped by Ben Bernanke," he said. http://www.scoopit.co.nz/story.php?title=Credit_near-death_experience_on_US_crash-1
Been talking to a lot of my clients in the "Manufacturing Private Sector". The last 4 weeks has come to a screeching halt for most who are not in the "Global" economy. The simple facts are, the US will have deflation, will need deflation inorder to survive. Cost of all goods and wages will drop to all time "Deflationary" levels. This is the only way that the US will survive. US Manufactures can not compete with India, China, etc. US government policy will try and force Socialism into place while the Deflationary pressures hammer on the US economy. The average unemployment level will reach in the double digits, this will be a consistent number. There will be a mass of people who will not return to employment for years. Anyone that was a "Paper Pusher" in the Banking, Mortgage, Corporate world will have his/her job on the line as companies trim their overhead. Inspite of all this, our industry (The Energy Sector) will thrive, Medical and key Companies in other areas will grow. But, this will be a small part of the Economy. I could also see a serious Bear Rally, market screaming 1000 or more points by April. IMHO, traders will make out like bandits if they know how to trade. Volatility should stick around for a few years. I thought, it might dry up but it looks like Fear and Gloom will be the norm for this decade.
You are correct in your assessment of the mfg. sector. It's in a free fall. I work as a contractor for industrial mfg. Last month U.S Steel Gary works let all 800 contractors go out the gate. Mittal Steel in East Chicago, IN. let all 600 of their contractors go. The Mittal plant in the Port of Indiana is laying off 2/3 of their work force next month, about 2500 people. U.S. Steel will be laying off next month too. I hear CAT in Aurora, IL. will be downsizing as their overseas market is drying up like the domestic has. Valero and Sunoco plants have cancelled some major capital projects. It goes on and on. It's a friggin' bloodbath. With today's numbers being so huge I fully expect Feb. numbers to approach one million for the month of Jan.
Important Notice: DUE TO RECENT BUDGET CUTS, AND THE RISING COST OF ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OIL, THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL HAS BEEN TURNED OFF. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. Sincerely, The Government