Nobody should pay any attention to what Goodboy posts, on ET at least. He's got a quant who can't understand that, considering their size & that it won't effect market liquidity, it's always best to be 'all in and all out' in place of Goodboy's scaling in tactics. He says "nobody can time the market all the time", of course not, but it still doesn't make a scale in a more profitable strategy. His logic means that nobody can ever time a market, like ever with any probable consistency. Hence the need for him to be scaling in. That also suggests that Goodboy & his quant have no grasp of price action, they don't believe in it, so they don't pay any attention to it (supposedly, I think they do, but as they don't study it in detail they are crap at it). According to his logic, which as we all know is always sound, his entries are all badly timed, so there will never be situations happening when a trade goes into black and stays that way until it is closed. I say it does happen, even if you were to trade blindfolded, which I am sure he doesn't. What all of the above means is that he will be stopped out on bad trades full position and trades that take off from the word go will not be fully realised as he is normally in 1/3 position. The man & his quant can't figure out basic math, if you listen to him he knows it all and we know nothing. What Goodboy possibly has is a gift of the gab, a power to persuade, to sell someone an idea that he has a full grasp of the markets. But I know that it's theoretical and no practical application can be derived from his postings apart from having to go long or short without any mention of risk & trade management.
%% 50% is more likely level; not a prediction.It went down about that[80% in '29.....The market is NOT really like a lotto, or Vegas at all. If you think that is true; see what happens if you win a lot in vegas, versus win a lot in market.Thanks