Does anyone really think the Fed will cut 50 basis points in July?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by noddyboy, Jul 16, 2019.

  1. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    After all the strong economic numbers, why is anyone still expecting this cut? But it is priced in...so surely we are in for a shock?
     
  2. Historically the Fed hasn't begun easing cycles with a .50 cut.

    Perhaps this time, as usual, they begin with .25 cut... and the market throws a hissy fit and tanks because "it wasn't .50"??

    The market may not whine and pout if not .50 but Trump surely will.

    Trump says, "the biggest problem America has is the Fed... too tight with the money". Who in his right mind believes that?

    :)
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019
    GregorySG9 and noddyboy like this.
  3. There is nothing on the table, in the economic reports or history that would indicate the FED needs to cut interest rates to push up an already inflated market, unless Trump keeps crying and whining and FED gives in.

    At best the FED should do nothing until we see any real signs of economic overheating. And a stock market hitting new highs has nothing to do with the economy. The stock market is always inflated.
     
    Overnight, GregorySG9 and Seaweed like this.
  4. BEST STOCK MARKET EVER!
     
  5. S2007S

    S2007S

    First off there is absolutely no reason for a rate cut, how this came about just a few short weeks ago is just mind boggling especially with historical low unemployment and 121 months of Straight economic expansion. If you really think about it rates at around 2% are already at historical lows, yet the whining bitches on wallstreet should already know this as they persuade the fed to cut by a whopping 50 basis points at the July 31st meeting....this is NOT going to happen. My prediction is yes the fed lowers rate, but by 25 basis points, the market will NOT drop on this news due to the fact that they at least got something and not Nothing. They will then talk extremely dovish and create more euphoria for markets to rally into fresh historical highs right into August.
     
    kj5159, noddyboy and nooby_mcnoob like this.
  6. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Why not wait until August to short then? As for myself, I think a good short is before the meeting because they won't cut 50 and the market will drop at least a little while.
     
  7. noddyboy

    noddyboy

  8. S2007S

    S2007S



    They won't do 50 basis points however I believe even if they do 25 basis points the markets will be excited they got a rate cut instead of nothing, plus they will rework the fed statement to be extremely dovish so that even if they do a 25 basis point the markets will like the dovish fed statement and catapult the markets higher!!
     
  9. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Nope. 50-point rate cuts are reserved for things like 2008. They might do it for a short-term panic (the rapid 20% corrections we had in 2018 or Russian/Asian currency crisis in the late 90s), but at all-time highs, I seriously doubt it.
     
  10. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    To be fair, the Fed was equally wrong to keep talking about raising rates when the market dropped 20% at the end of 2018. At the very least, Powell should've changed his tone earlier. I mean Obama had 0% rates for almost 7 years plus stimulus and multiple rounds of QE. And then he got full credit for a stock market boom! If I were his successor, I'd cry foul, too.
     
    #10     Jul 16, 2019