I agree Steve. But for me and I would think for some others on ET as well, that after we figure out how to go with the ebbs and flow of the markets, it becomes boring and so the next challenge is "anticipating" the collective actions and repeated patterns of ALL those people. The ES is one of the hardest markets to trade but also probably one of the easiest to anticipate once you understand the psychology and tactics of the enemy on the battlefront. It's too easy to play the breakouts, anticipating the turns is what gets me to my screens everyday. Do we need to predict or anticipate to be successful, absolutley not. Instead of piggybacking behind the gorilla, you now become the gorilla because you figured out how. best
Good thread, great thoughts traders. Now why can't we get more of this on ET instead of the "look at how big I am" crap.
Could it be that most of the 'war' traders are ESsers, while most 'go-with-flow- traders are NQ/YM traders? That would be interesting...
that could very well be...I trade the ES and I see it as a battle but I scalp so I guess it depends on your style. It's definitely better to ride the bigger waves on the NQ/ER, imo. My strategy doesn't work as well on those contracts.
I've always taken issue with this war analogy. I worked with a guy years ago who would pound his fist on the table and say "trading is war!" Although I looked up to him as a trader, I always kind of laughed under my breath when he did this. Yes, if you put the same amount of energy and concentration into trading as you would into battle, then you will be a better trader. But if you were to look an Iraq Vet friend of mine in the face and tell him that sitting in front of a computer and clicking a mouse is the same as war, he'd show you the scars from when his Humvee hit an IED (which ultimately killed his driver), and laugh in your face. Intense concentration and being able to perform under extreme pressure, yes. War? Not even close.
I am looking at it like a game of Chess. Not really trying to guess what the market will do, more like planning your next move if the market does something. This morning, was anticipating a double bottom and was planning moves to counter the different milestones of the DB. Also, when a stop is hit, I look at it as one piece lost and time to plan the next move. Every PT reached can be treated as one piece of the opponent taken. P/L will determine who won the day's game.
No doubt trading isn't like seeing shrapnel flying by your head but I guess you do what you do to get your psychological edge. I really find trading to be like a boxing match, or another type of battle. You hit with little jabs and wear your opponent down until you see an opening and then you go for the big hit. Then there are occasions when you leave yourself exposed and you have to take a hit. When that happens you just lick your wounds and get back up, perhaps even strap on a bigger set of gloves. It's a give and take business and whoever has the most energy and the best game is left standing at the end of the day.
Steve said it best. It is not a war but a fight but not against the smartest of anything, but against YOURSELF! Should I get in now? How long should I hold? Am I statisfied with that gain? Can I still stand the pain of being worng? etc.etc.etc.
No doubt trading isn't like seeing shrapnel flying by your head but I guess you do what you do to get your psychological edge. I agree. Whatever works for each of us. A sniper analogy might fit my style but I think I'm more partial to the chess or poker angles.