I always start my TA of every chart with a snapshot of basic set parameters. Results for the Dow are - 20EMA slope = upwards = Bullish 50EMA slope = upwards = Bullish 20/50EMA sequence = 20 is below 50 = Bearish Bullish / Bearish close sequence of weekly bars = 2 up = Bullish (but not much) Sequence of weekly bars not breached by 50EMA = 0 = Neutral Sequence of weekly closes above/below 50EMA = 1 above = Bullish (but not much) Is weekly close in top or bottom third of range? = top = Bullish For me to take a long-term trend-following trade, the first 3 parameters must be in agreement. Usually, when a chart is reversing from Bearish to Bullish, the 20EMA slope is the first of the 3 to reverse, then the 50 slope, then the 20/50 sequence. FWIW, the Nasdaq and S&P are weaker. Conclusions - So far the snapshot looks like a story of a chart trying to turn bullish but its actually not making much progress. There isn't a trend-following trade for me in either direction. If I was forced to trade this index, I would either a) set a sell order below Friday's low, or b) a buy above Thursday's high and a sell below Friday's low but I hate doing that as I don't have much conviction for either if triggered. I would rather short the Nasdaq (but not yet).
Seasonality is starting to come into play as we head toward thanksgiving. Last week can go either way but it's likely to remain volatile. But after that, it's going to get quiet fast.