Day Trading Thoughts For Wed. Feb. 4

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, Feb 4, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    A number of people did not understand why I had a bullish tone on both the blog entry (i.e. predicting an upside bias) much less why I kept noting that except for selected financials, I was not going to get short yesterday. Let’s look a little closer for educational purposes. First, one of the things that I always track is the performance of futures in overnight trading along with the action in foreign stocks. When I went to bed around 12:30AM on Monday night (well, technically, Tuesday morning), the S&P’s were up 7 and the Dow futures were up 70. When I awoke just after 5AM, futures were down a bit yet European markets were marginally higher. By paying attention, I had a framework as to how stocks performed when nobody was around. Next, volume has been dwindling nearly every day that the market has been 'down.' In fact, the NASDAQ was up nicely on Monday with the broader S&P 500 flat. Furthermore, on an intra-day basis, the broader market did not sell off yesterday when the financials were crushed earlier. I mean, we were looking at stocks like STI below 10 and WFC around 17. Thus, speaking for me, if I was short with big money (like nine figures), I'd have begun taking off some shorts if I had some positions. And that principle drove up the markets in a vacuum. Why the market did not go down with the financials crumbling is something I do not understand yet it was not falling…I don’t question…I go with it. There was nobody around to sell and everybody is afraid of missing the train whenever the market does rally so the smallest buying pressure provided the market lift yesterday. As volumes continue to remain sharply below last year’s levels, there will be increasing amount of 2% moves in both directions on the market so just know to look for the clues- and don’t fight the trend.

    Markets in Asia were up about 2% to 3% across the board; gains extended to Europe as well with prices up just over 1% on average. Oil and currencies are quiet with bonds down slightly. In the U.S., futures are indicating a slightly lower open. Look for quiet trade overall today with trading on both sides of unchanged. There is a general ‘wait and see’ malaise overall and there seems to be nothing to break that trend today.



    Reiterating-
    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    ERTS- wretched earnings, but stock traded higher after-hours yesterday

    ILMN- good earnings

    LLY- got approval from an FDA panel for Prasugrel

    MET- beat earnings slightly

    SOLR- good earnings

    ADS- good earnings

    NETL- great earnings

    ITMN- closed near a high

    MYGN- closed near a high

    ALTH- announced positive phase II results on its Propel drug

    FCX, CL- mentioned positively on “Mad Money”

    COL- closed near a high

    BHS- closed at a high

    FNF- beat earnings estimates slightly

    TNB- good guidance

    WWW- beat earnings estimates

    NOV- good earnings

    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

    DIS- missed earnings estimates

    YUM – missed earnings

    UNM- warned for next quarter

    LEG- warned on its earnings

    ANH- bad earnings

    CPX- closed near a low

    ACE- beat earnings slightly, but worries are abundant about its longer-term outlook

    TXT- mentioned negatively on “Mad Money”

    VLY- closed near a low

    CUZ- closed near a low

    WL- closed near a trend low

    COF- closed near a trend low

    SHE- closed near a low

    GR- cut outlook

    KFT- cut outlook

    SNA- poor earnings

    TUP- cut outlook

    COST- cut outlook

    R- horrible earnings warning





    Earnings:

    WED FEB 4 BEFORE

    AGN BCO BHP

    CLX DBD DVN

    FNF FOR GR

    ITT KFT LAZ

    NI NOV PM

    PPL R RL

    SLAB SLE SNA

    SUN TMO TNB

    TUP TWC TWX

    WIN WWW



    WED FEB 4 AFTER

    ADS AHL AIZ

    AKAM ATW AVB

    BMC CBL CNQR

    CSCO DLB EFX

    ESS FMC HAIN

    HAR HMN HRS

    MET NVLS PHM

    PRU REG THQI

    TMK V XRAY


    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny
     
  2. keep up the good work. nice call on HUM monday. :)