Day Trading Thoughts For Thurs. Feb. 5

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, Feb 5, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    One of the key characteristics of any day trade in particular is liquidity. Many trading situations can turn into roach motels if your time horizon for a trade is, say, two minutes. It can be very easy to get into a trade as different entities/market makers maneuver an appearance of making it seem that there is more liquidity than there actually is. For instance, a market maker may bid 10000 shares at 88.23 of something with an offer of 100 shares at 88.25; this makes day traders want to buy 88.25 as it seems so obvious that they can lean on the 88.23 to sell. However, what makes it that much more dangerous is when there are not that many shares on the tape meaning there are no real buyers should the entity bidding 88.23 move. This is precisely why I tend to trade only stocks that average a million shares per day or more. With all of this in mind, even that is getting harder. Volumes on the exchanges and ETF’s are down almost across the board as compared to last year. What this does is make it easy to shove stocks up and down by the remaining players as many hedge funds and mutual funds were blown out last year (another contributing factor to the declining volumes, i.e. a diminished number of players). Thus, when there is a story such as we had yesterday that CEO Ken Lewis of BAC noting that business in January was ‘encouraging,’ there are 10% pops in BAC and a rush of short covering overall. People see BAC rallying so they buy financials which leads to buying in other stocks. That one comment was good for about a 60 point pop in the Dow rather quickly. Thus, be aware- particularly when on the wrong side of a trade- moves are becoming increasingly exaggerated. The decreased volumes are eroding the universe of stocks that I for one trade- yet it is a phenomenon here to stay for some time to come thus we as a day trading community must learn to not only accept it, but to adapt accordingly as well by keeping even tighter stops when wrong…and by capturing gains in an even more compressed time horizon.

    Markets in Asia were flat overnight with European bourses down around 0.5% on average. State-side, we’re dealing with a CSCO warning and continued weakness in banks. Look for a day similar to yesterday with choppiness on both sides of unchanged. I know. A broad forecast, but it is exactly what happened yesterday and is highly likely to occur today as well. The benchmark to watch here will be CSCO. If CSCO mounts a rally, the market will likely erase yesterday’s losses if not more.


    Reiterating-
    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    V- terrific earnings

    AKAM- good earnings

    DLB- great earnings

    PRU- missed earnings, but guidance basically in-line

    TFK- decent earnings

    CBL- good earnings

    DYAX- positive news on its DX-88 drug; FDA advisory committee approved it…but it was 6-5 and there were safety concerns

    SUNH- good earnings

    BBBB- great earnings

    CRYP- rallied sharply yesterday and closed near a high

    EXM, DRYS, GNK- all dry bulk shippers closed near their highs, but likely will back some ground this morning

    CAH- good earnings

    CI- good earnings

    MCO- beat quarterly earnings estimates handily

    WMT- beat monthly same-store sales guidance

    MDR- announced huge contract

    MA- beat earnings, but warned of slowing revenue growth


    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

    CSCO- beat earnings estimates slightly, but warned on its conference call about future orders

    NVLS- poor earnings

    CNQR- terrible earnings

    HAR- terrible earnings

    HRS- bad earnings

    GLAD- closed near a low

    MWA- closed on its low

    AJG- closed near its low

    TUP- closed near its low

    UTI- closed just off of its low

    MEE- closed near its low

    AGN- mentioned in a negative context on “Mad Money” last night

    AINV- closed at a new trend low

    FFCH- closed at a new trend low

    WSH- closed near a low

    WMS- closed down sharply near a low

    SLM- closed down near a low as worries over student loan funding came back into play

    DO- missed earnings estimates

    EQR- poor earnings

    KIM- missed and warned on outlook

    STT- warned on outlook and slashed dividend

    NCR- terrible earnings

    TGT- warned on outlook


    Earnings:

    THURS FEB 5 BEFORE

    ANR BDC BG

    BPO CAH CI

    CINF CSL DO

    DSX DUK EL

    ENS EOG EQR

    EXP FLIR FLO

    IEX IFF IT

    K KIM LII

    LNT LZ MA

    MCO MF NCR

    NLY PENN RX

    SBH SE SON

    SPR STD TEN

    WBC WU

    THURS FEB 5 AFTER

    AINV ALKS AMX

    BEZ CPHD HIG

    JDSU MCRS MIL

    MTD NFG NFX

    NWS/A OMTR PBI

    RAH ROP SRCL

    THOR UEPS VRSN



    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny