Day Trading Thoughts For Thurs. Feb. 26

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, Feb 26, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    Yesterday, stocks took a big dip followed by a sharp upturn following the news of regulators setting a six-month deadline for the largest 19 banks to raise any new capital that they deem necessary following a review of the balance sheets of each of these banks. According to the U.S. Treasury, regulators will complete their ‘stress tests’ by the end of the 1st quarter. These tests will help determine if the banks need more capital yet the government as has so often been the case did not release specific details as to how these stress tests will work. Should it be needed, banks would have a choice of raising private funds or accepting monies from taxpayers via the U.S. Treasury. Any new monies procured from the government would come via convertible preferred securities which would acquire voting rights should the shares be converted into common stock. These shares would convert at the requests of the individual banks or at the end of a seven-year period of time. Now, at first blush, this all looks negative, i.e. the prospect of nationalizing banks would seem to be a real possibility based on this plan. But the reason that the equities of banks rallied yesterday afternoon was that there is hope- perhaps to be unrealized- but hope that this idea could stabilize the system. Basically, the banks would be ordered to attain new capital if they fail these stress tests; they’d either be forced to raise it themselves or go to the Uncle Sam well. And even if the banks went to the wallets of the taxpayers, they’d be giving us the right for new shares rather than converting the shares into common equity as they’d have seven years to do that. Thus, this whole idea buys time. And time is what we need. For day traders, it is but another example whereby one cannot merely look at headlines and assume the best (or worst); sometimes, a little more analysis/thinking is needed to truly understand the headlines.

    Markets in Asia were lightly mixed overnight while European bourses are up 1% or so. Banks are very strong in the early going, leading the futures nicely higher. Look ofr that strength to maintain itself most of the day today as a contra reaction to yesterday afternoon’s late sell-off- of course, this is all dependant on those banks but it looks like a relatively quiet day to the upside


    Reiterating-
    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    CRM- terrific earnings

    FLR- beat on quarter and raised guidance

    CLF- good earnings

    FLS- terrific earnings

    TYL- good earnings

    OCR- good earnings

    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern


    KBR- closed near a low

    AGU- closed near a low amidst rumors it will be buying CF

    ESRX- poor earnings

    PSYS- abominable earnings; missed estimates and warned on outlook

    NUVA- beat earnings, but warned a little on revenue guidance

    DCI- terrible earnings

    NTES- missed earnings and COO resigned

    QCOR- closed near a low after bad earnings

    HUM- closed near a low in a weak healthcare sector

    CEDC- closed near a low

    PACR- closed near a low

    FCSX- closed near a low

    ANSS- terrible earnings

    NIHD- bad earnings


    Earnings:

    THURS FEB 26 BEFORE

    AMT ANSS BVF

    BYD CLR CM

    CTB CVC DLR

    EME EP ERF

    ESV EXH FAF

    FMX FTO GLBL

    GM GNK HRP

    HUN IRM KEG

    KG LAMR LINE

    LKQX MIC NDAQ

    NIHD OCR OEH

    OMG PCS RDC

    SUG SWY TEF

    WRC WTI

    THURS FEB 26 AFTER

    ADSK ATHN BID

    CTV CVA DECK

    DELL DPL GPS

    HANS HGSI INSU

    INT ITMN KSS

    LEAP ME PSA

    SBAC SD SGMS

    SNH SWN UHS



    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny