Day Trading Thoughts For Mon. Dec. 22

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, Dec 22, 2008.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    Last week (Monday and Tuesday), the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its first two days of back-to-back double digit moves since mid-September. It has been nearly six months since the benchmark average had three consecutive double digit moves. However, the VIX (a prominent measure of volatility) settled back to around 50 last week- the lowest it has traded at in quite some time. Combine that fact with the time of year we are in combined with the exhaustion level of most traders and it portends a relatively slow week for the major averages. However, historically, these can oftentimes be very busy weeks for the average day trader. What tends to happen albeit not as often as a decade ago is that people are home from work and bored so many become amateur day traders. Thus, pockets of action are created in individual stocks and sectors. Exacerbating this thought is the very nature of the newsflow we have seen in these last few days. For instance, on Friday, Uncle Sam once again came to the rescue- this time in the auto sector. When investors heard the initial reports that the government was involved, the broader market rallied. However, as market participants filtered through the news and realize this was merely a crutch to get the automakers through the winter, the market’s early gains evaporated. Look for a lot of this type of movement this week. Slower yet big moves in gradually narrower ranges with individualized big moves in some stocks (DVAX last week for instance) should rule the week; trade accordingly by being even more patient than usual.

    Markets were relatively quiet, but generally negative overnight throughout the world with losses muted. Everything else is quiet. As for today, well, I could probably cut and paste the same passage for the rest of the year barring extenuating events, but: many people are now starting their vacations. Combined with the cold weather keeping more people at home and a lack of news, it should be very quiet. Look for a range on both sides of unch with a dearth of trading opportunities other than in the first hour and the last hour.

    Reiterating-If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    RIMM- closed near high; looking to buy thru Friday’s 43.21 high on momentum

    EAT- closed near a high; if it opens unch or lower, buy thru Friday’s 11.19 close

    RUS- closed on a high; looking to buy thru 3.95 if it opens down or unch

    FTBK- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 4.22

    CMLS- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 1.87

    TUES- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 2.50

    ABCW- closed on a high; looking to buy thru 3.01

    GVHR- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 2.55

    IFC- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 2.62

    EVC- closed on a high; looking to buy thru 1.67

    PEI- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 7.45

    PLD- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 9.27

    BWS- closed near a high; looking to buy thru 9.46

    FOR- closed near a high; looking to buy above 6.40

    GRB- closed near a high; looking to buy above 4.89

    OXM- closed on a high; looking for continuation

    SQNM- on “Mad Money” on Friday night

    SA, HSNI, BNE, RUS, LBY, GFG, STP, SOL, MTG- closed unusually high on imbalance; if any open above close, looking to short thru unch. Otherwise, if it opens down, buy thru unch.

    HUN- mentioned positively in “Barron’s”

    NPD- positive drug news

    QI- reached refinancing agreement

    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

    WFC- weakest stock in a mixed bank group; odd and sticks out

    CVX, XOM- big oils generally weak on continued declines in price of oil

    UFI- down after warning badly; looking to short thru Friday’s 2.61 low

    WY- very weak after warning on earnings on Friday; looking to short thru Friday’s 33.32 low

    TPX- closed on a low; looking to short thru 5.90 close if it opens higher

    SPF, HOV, KMX, GBG- closed unusually high on imbalance; if any open above close, looking to short thru unch. Otherwise, if it opens down, buy thru unch.

    SCS- poor earnings

    WAG- bad earnings

    MAN- warned on earnings

    Earnings:

    MON DEC 22 BEFORE

    SCS WAG

    MON DEC 22 AFTER
    RHT TIBX

    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny
     
  2. That GW was a real trade!!! I was concerned when they halted it.