Home > General Topics > Wall St. News > David Tice Predicts S&P to Fall Below 800 Level

David Tice Predicts S&P to Fall Below 800 Level

  1. I'm not sure it's that outlandish call, but this guy's as big a permabear idiot as Abby Joseph Cohen is a permabull idiot.

    I'm not sure why it's news when he says something, because I can already tell you what he's going to say the next 20 years because he's been saying the same damn thing for the last 20 years.
  2. Yeah, he's the great grandaddy of the Perma-Bears ... he can't run anything else out of his mouth, and gets to feast every 8 years or so.
  3. I love how nobody can argue with WHAT HE SAID, they can only attack him.

    Even if he's Barney the Dinosaur, WHO he is has nothing to do with whether or not he is correct.
  4. I disagree. The meat of the original post "look what Tice said and I think he's cool" not "I think the S&P is going to 800". I even said the prediction was reasonable, but I hate giving credit to blowhards who say the same year after year and then think they've cured cancer when they finally appear to be right.

    If a true trader with skills says we're going to lose 30% it's sort of news. If Tice says it, it's just like any other day of the last 10-20 years. (The fact that he's getting any coverage at all leads me to think the market won't fall as much as I might otherwise expect.)

    In short, you get no points credit for predicting 30% down moves when you've been predicting them for 20 years and were wrong for 18.5 of them.
  5. The saying goes...."Even a broken clock is correct twice a day"

    With such a warped view of the financial world, it is a wonder he still is around. Why bloomberg interviews him I do not know.
  6. Any new predictions from him?
  7. david tice was banned yesterday - i wonder how he is gonna short now.
    i hope he bough a pair of new shoes for him during the last 2 months - lol
  8. I heard he put up his old CRT monitor for sale on Ebay in an effort to raise fresh capital.
  9. more capital to to go more short on margin? :p
  10. rumor is he is bidding to cover at 1930's lows. he thinks by then the market might have 'overreacted a bit'
  11. you have to feel for him this morning - he is such a tool...
  12. Nice day for him once in a while if he's still around...
  13. Do not like Tice and his calls but this one needs some attention.

    CNN reports that 7.5M homes are beyond foreclosure value i.e. mortage defaults have already occured. Another 5M homes are in the negative equity but owners are putting money in somehow.

    These numbers are tooooooo big to ignore. Suppose the home owners cut all other expenses and throw everything towards the mortgage, other industries will suffer resulting in huge layoffs and the circle of recession is completed either way.

    Only bail out makes a sense!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    I will not support any bailout package that attempts to take my tax dollars and gives them to people who were not prudent with their borrowing and ability to pay. To do so is a MORAL HAZARD!!!!
  15. Genius King david tice
  16. i agree i see sp500 testing the 300 level to retrace the 1987 crash and fill the gap
  17. Man, Is that a recent picture of Tice in his Office? Whats with the 50 lbs. CRT monitor in the background?

    The guy is still living in the past. You think he'd shell $300 for a nice 22" or something.....scheezeee.
  18. Isn't that Ferris Bueller's principal?
  19. So where's Tice. No new target?

    Can't have a tradable bottom before this guy doesn't declare victory and lowers his target. :cool:
  20. lol :)
    I believe it is.
    Ed Rooney !
  21. Wouldn't surprise me to see SP @ 300..
  22. He should quit while he's ahead.
    Take a bow; do a victory lap; spike the ball in the end zone.
    THen shut the f??? up.
  23. If you listened to him, who cares about the S&P? He says we are in for a hyperinflation move (buy gold, devalued dollar, etc)... So with that said, he is not a deflationist. If he isn't a deflationist, then its much harder to short the S&P. Could you imagine what will happen to raw materials and miner stocks if we had hyperinflation?
  24. Federated’s Tice Says S&P 500 Is Poised to Plunge 62%

    April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 28 percent rise since March 9 is a “sucker’s rally,” and the overvalued measure may plunge 62 percent as earnings continue to shrink, according to David Tice of Federated Investors Inc.

    Stocks are overpriced relative to earnings, which won’t rebound soon after posting the longest quarterly slump since the Great Depression, said Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated. Analysts estimate that the S&P 500 earnings decline, which has lasted for six quarters, will continue for three more quarters before profits improve, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    The S&P 500’s five-week advance, the steepest since the 1930s, according to S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt, may carry the index 16 percent higher to 1,000 points before faltering, Tice said.

    “Stocks are overpriced in terms of earnings,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We are closing down factories and retailers and businesses all over the place. How in the world are earnings going to stabilize? We just don’t see it.”

    The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that Tice founded returned 27 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937.

    Tice said the benchmark index for U.S. stocks may end the year at 500, representing a 42 percent slide from today’s close of 865.30. It may eventually fall to 325, he said.

    Companies in the S&P 500 trade at 1.9 times their liquidation value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Tice said that ratio may fall to between 1 and 0.5.

    “I’ve never been more confident that this market will fall back to at least book value,” Tice said.

  25. Whatever little prickish child who keeps rating these threads one star, why don't you construct and post an intelligent rebuttal to the OP, instead?

  26. Stocks expensive?

    S & P 500 Index 869.60 856.56 1390.33
    P/E Ratio 58.44 57.56 21.01
    Earns Yield % 1.71 1.74 4.76
    Earns $ 14.88 14.88 66.19
    Divs Yield % 2.77 2.81 2.05
    Divs $ 24.09 24.07 28.50
    Mkt to Book 1.64 1.62 2.76
    Book Value $ 529.58 529.58 504.39

    Since when is P/E of 58 expensive?


    Buy bull buy!
  27. tice will be right adjusted for inflation
  28. To construct your own "Tice SPX forecast" indicator, simply take yesterday's SP500 closing price and multiply it by 0.5 :cool:
  29. Does Davie Tice still ride a scooter around Dallas?

    That pretty much says it all.
  30. and add 6 months...