Daily Free F/X Trade Setups

Discussion in 'Forex Trading' started by ShadowTrader_08, Feb 19, 2009.

  1. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Tuesday, we were expecting the dollar to continue to work its way higher in a wave iii advance. The index actually started its thrust higher before we could hit the send button at the completion of yesterdays report. The dollar looks to be near the completion of a five wave advance to complete wave iii of a smaller degree up. The dollar should be due for a pull back to complete a wave iv retracement of wave (iii) up. Any retracement should remain above the wave i high of 87.09, thereafter a wave v of (iii) should take the dollar up to the 89+ level. Bottom line, after a slight pull back the dollar should continue to work its way higher.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090218USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, our short setup on the <b>EUR/USD</b> was triggered, placing us short the pair at 1.2700. Intra-day we moved the stop down to the 1.2700 level or break even. We are now recommending moving the stop down to 1.2650 to lock in 50 pips. The position is currently up 110 pips. Our downside target remains at 1.2400. From the wave ii high, we have a completed five waves down so the pair is due for some sort of correction and in light of the dollars likely pull back...protecting profits is more than warranted.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090218EUR.GIF">

    Our long setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> has continued to perform well. Longed at 1.2460...we moved our stop up to the 1.2500 level intra-day. The pair is due for a wave (iv) correction within the wave iii move higher. Wave (iv) correction can fall as low as the 61.8% fibo (1.2498) without violating any wave rules, however, the likely end of wave (iv) will be the 38.2% fibo or the 1.2566 level. The 38.2% fibo is the level where the length of wave c would be equal to the length of the wave a's decline. Our upside target remains at 1.2900.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090218CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, we were stopped out of our short setup on the <b>GBP/USD</b> for a 104 pip loss. Once again the pair decided to do its own thing and rise as the dollar strengthened. Go Figure!!! We've adjusted the labeling of the pair to better reflect the current pattern. We are still expecting the pair to thrust lower in a wave (iii) decline but before doing so it is likely to work its way higher in a sub-wave ii correction. We have placed fibo's on the pair and we're targeting the 61.8% fibo or the 1.4419 level for the completion of wave ii. This will satisfy two things. One, it will close the gap left from Sundays trading and two, it will retrace to a high probability fibo (61.8%) for wave 2 moves. We will wait for the correction to complete before we offer any setups on this pair. When we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090218GBP.GIF">
     
  2. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Thursday, we said, "we will likely have a pull back soon to complete a wave (iv) correction. A break of the 87.78 level will be the first indication that the correction is underway and below 87.13 the confirmation." Well the dollar broke below the 87.78 level and hit a low at 87.22 before bouncing higher. The wave iv move has satisfied the size (retracing to... but not overlapping wave i up) and form (a-b-c) of a completed correction, however, the move off of the low has only exhibited three waves which indicates a correction. So we may have more work to do to the downside before we continue to higher levels. We will consider wave v up is in progress as long as the dollar does not breach the 87.13 level.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090220USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, our short setup on the <b>EUR/USD</b> was stopped out at 1.2600 for a 100 pip gain. The pair retraced in what looks to be a wave (iv) correction. We anticipate wave (v) to work its way lower towards our target of 1.2400. The pair can not exceed 1.2708 or we will have to alter our count. For now, continue to look for lower lows in this pair. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090220EUR.GIF">

    Our long setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> was stopped out at 1.2525 for a 65 pip gain. The pair worked its way lower to the 50% fibo just barely entering into the wave i high. We will not count this as a violation of wave rules (which says that wave 4 can not overlap wave 1) because the overlap is only 3 pips and in currency's we must allow for the spread which is 3 pips on each side for a total of 6 pips potential overlap. Intra-day, we sent an email alert to re-enter the trade long at 1.2510 with a stop at 1.2445 and target of 1.2750. Later in the day, we moved the stop up to 1.2530 where it still remains. We have a riskless trade with 20 pips locked in and a potential upside of 240 pips. Not Bad!!! The pair looks to be in the later stages of a zigzag correction sideways...thereafter, we anticipate a move higher towards our target of 1.2750.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090220CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, that illusive <b>GBP/USD</b> moved higher in a wave ii correction as we had been originally expecting. The pair slightly exceeded the 61.8% fibo before falling away. If the dollar is in fact starting its wave v move higher then we should "expect" the <b>GBP/USD</b> to work its way lower towards our initial target of 1.3900 and then much lower. A break below 1.4222 will be the first indication of the resumption of the downtrend and below 1.4166 the confirmation. When we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090220GBP.GIF">
     
  3. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Friday, we said, "we may have more work to do to the downside before we continue to higher levels. We will consider wave v up is in progress as long as the dollar does not breach the 87.13 level." Well something rather big is up. The Dollar broke below 87.13 on Friday and as of Sunday evening the dollar has dropped from 86.85 (Friday's close) to 82.50 or 4.35 points. Now this may be a bad tick for the first hour of trading because the stock futures are only down slightly and the pairs we follow have had little net movement from Friday's close. So until we get more data we'll have to hold off on giving our analysis of the U.S. Dollar. What we had up until Sunday evenings trading was basically a simple a-b-c correction lower but with this hourly candle spike lower it could be something more sinister. Best to give the pattern time to develop. If it was a bad tick then we would expect the dollar to head higher towards our 90+ target.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090223USD.GIF">

    Friday, we were anticipating the <b>EUR/USD</b> to work its way lower stating that, "the pair can not exceed 1.2708 or we will have to alter our count." We have altered our count just slightly to encompass the recent price movement of the pair. It does not change our bearish outlook on the pair only delaying the start of the next leg down. We have labeled Friday's price action as part of a larger a-b-c correction, which brought the pair back to the apex of the completion of the prior wave (4) triangle. So the current wave (i) down and wave (ii) up are the one/two of wave (5) down. The likely target for the completion of wave c of (ii) is the 78.6% fibo or 1.2957. Thereafter, we anticipate the start of wave (iii) of (5) down to begin shortly. Before we issue any setups, we will allow more of the pattern to develop to confirm our top count. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090223EUR.GIF">

    Our long setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> was stopped out at 1.2530 for a 20 pip gain on Friday. The pair worked its way higher topping out at 1.2650 before reversing sharply lower. We have altered our top count to account for the recent price moves. We are labeling the entire move from the 2/17 high as an a-b-c correction, which retraced to the 61.8% fibo of the rise from 2/13. What concerns us is that wave c down only has 3 waves down...so there may be a need for one last push lower to complete wave c. As long as the 1.2416 level is not breached, we will anticipate further strength in this pair. Above 1.2576 will be the first indication of the resumption of the up trend and above 1.2650 (wave b) the confirmation. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090223CAD.GIF">

    Friday, the <b>GBP/USD</b> moved higher as the dollar weakened. We have adjusted the count to better reflect recent price action. We are still maintaining our bearish outlook on this pair. The pair should not get above the 1.4605 level...likely meeting strong resistance at the 78.6% fibo or the 1.4496 level. A break below 1.4360 will be the first indication of the resumption of the down trend and below 1.4232 the confirmation. Due to the volatility of this pair we will make it force us to commit to a trade by waiting for it to breach the 1.4148 level. When we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090223GBP.GIF">
     
  4. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Monday, we took a wait and see attitude on the U.S. Dollar. The spike down at the beginning of Sunday's trading turned out to be of no consequence. The index worked its way lower hitting the 61.8% fibo retracement of the wave (i) low to high. Our current count has us in the beginning stages of a wave (iii) up of wave 5. In order to keep this count alive, the wave c of (ii) low of 85.81 must remain in tact. If that level is breached we may have to consider wave 5 complete at the wave (i) high. We hold that out as our alternate count because the size of that wave is very small in proportion to wave 1 and wave 3 of the entire five wave structure. So for now we are cautiously bullish...a push above 88.57 would turn us 100% bullish once again.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090224USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, we said about the <b>EUR/USD</b> that, "the current wave (i) down and wave (ii) up are the one/two of wave (5) down. The likely target for the completion of wave c of (ii) is the 78.6% fibo or 1.2957." The pair spiked to 1.2987, just beyond the 78.6% fibo, before reversing hard lower the rest of the day. If this is the start of wave (iii) of (5) down then we should be nearing the bottom of wave i of (iii) and due for some form of an a-b-c correction for wave ii up. All we can do is wait for a turn up then place a fibo retracement from the wave (ii) high to the wave i low and wait for the completion of wave ii. As it stands if the bottom of wave i is at this level then we can expect a rise to the 38.2% fibo of 1.2786. However, it's best to allow more of the pattern to develop and the correction to complete before we jump in on the short side. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090224EUR.GIF">

    Monday, we said about the <b>USD/CAD</b> that, "what concerns us is that wave c down only has 3 waves down...so there may be a need for one last push lower to complete wave c." Well we got that push lower to complete wave c and the decline just happened to get stopped at the 78.6% fibo (1.2361) hitting a low of 1.2348 then bouncing higher the remainder of the day. The correction lower appears complete and we anticipate further strength in this pair as long as the 1.2408 level is not breached. Above 1.2543 will be the first indication of the resumption of the up trend and above 1.2557 the confirmation. We will likely get a push up thru those trigger levels to complete wave (v) and then a pullback to the 1.2500 level. At that point we will consider going long this pair. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090224CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the <b>GBP/USD</b> moved higher surpassing the 1.4605 level forcing us to adjust the labeling of the current pattern, however, the change does not change our bearish outlook for this pair. We are considering Mondays rise as the completion of wave (ii) and the decline from that high as wave i down of wave (iii). As with the <b>EUR/USD</b>, we are expecting a wave ii correction higher before the commencement of wave iii of (iii) down. We will wait for wave ii to top and then short the pair using the wave c high of 1.4661 or so as our stop. First, however, we need to see wave i bottom and wave ii complete its correction higher. When we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090224GBP.GIF">
     
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  6. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Tuesday, we said that "our current count has us in the beginning stages of a wave (iii) up of wave 5. In order to keep this count alive, the wave c of (ii) low of 85.81 must remain in tact." So far the 85.81 level has remained in tact, however, the rise from the wave (ii) low looks to be only a three wave move indicating a correction rather than and impulsive (five wave) move indicating the start of a new up trend. We, therefore, remain cautious on calling for the return of a bullish up move. We need to see the index push above the most recent high of 87.84 as an indication of the return of the up trend and above 88.40 as the confirmation. A drop below 85.81 will force us to switch to our alternate count that wave v has already topped and we are in a correction towards the 84.85 level (the 38.2% fibo retracement of the 12/18 low). Cautiously bullish.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090225USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, we said about the <b>EUR/USD</b> that, "all we can do is wait for a turn up then place a fibo retracement from the wave (ii) high to the wave i low and wait for the completion of wave ii. As it stands if the bottom of wave i is at this level then we can expect a rise to the 38.2% fibo of 1.2786." Well that level, 1.2664, was the bottom or wave i and the pair rallied past the 38.2% fibo and made it up to the 61.8% fibo of 1.2864 before reversing. We sent out an intra-day email alert with a <i>Short Idea</i> triggering at 1.2850, stop at 1.2900 and target of 1.2400. The setup looks excellent as the pair pushed slightly higher and the stochastic's diverged making a lower high. We look for this pair to continue to work its way lower over the near term.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090225EUR.GIF">

    Yesterday, we said about the <b>USD/CAD</b> that, "Above 1.2543 will be the first indication of the resumption of the up trend and above 1.2557 the confirmation. We will likely get a push up thru those trigger levels to complete wave (v) and then a pullback to the 1.2500 level." The pair only made it as high as 1.2541 before reversing lower. We can consider that high the completion of wave v and the subsequent decline another wave (ii) correction. A push above 1.2500 will be the first indication of the resumption of the up trend and above 1.2541 the confirmation. It is possible for the pair to make another push lower towards 1.2300 to complete our alternate count of a more complex a-b-c-x-a-b-c (double zigzag) but for now we'll stick with our top count looking for higher levels. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090225CAD.GIF">

    Tuesday, we said regarding the <b>GBP/USD</b> that, "we will wait for wave ii to top and then short the pair using the wave c high of 1.4661 or so as our stop." Well the pair topped, moved lower and has come back up again. We have shifted the labels over to indicate that the last move down was all of wave i and the this current rise is a wave ii that should top below the 1.4600 level. As we await the wave iii down our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.4520, stop at 1.4600 and a target of 1.4000.
     
  7. ShadowTrader_08

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    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Wednesday, we said that "we need to see the index push above the most recent high of 87.84 as an indication of the return of the up trend and above 88.40 as the confirmation." The U.S. Dollar Index managed to make it over the first hurdle surpassing 87.84...hitting a high for the day at 88.24. We are sticking with our current count that the dollar is in a wave (iii) of wave 5 up. Our confidence of this will be raised dramatically when the index gets above the wave (i) high of 88.57. As before, a drop below 85.81 will force us to switch to our alternate count that wave v has already topped and we are in a correction towards the 84.85 level (the 38.2% fibo retracement of the 12/18 low). Bottom line, we remain bullish as long as the wave (ii) low remains in tact.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090226USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, our setup on the <b>EUR/USD</b> was stopped out for a 50 pip loss for some when the pair popped up and hit our stop at 1.2900 before falling hard the remainder of the day. For those not stopped out or who on their own accord re-entered the trade, it would be prudent to move stops down to 1.2775 and continue to move the stop down 50 pips every time the pair declines an additional 100 pips. For the rest of us, the pair looks to have completed five waves down from the wave ii high and should be due for a correction higher. We will look to short the pair at the completion of that correction likely on a break below the recent 1.2688 low. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090226EUR.GIF">

    Yesterday, we said about the <b>USD/CAD</b> that, "a push above 1.2500 will be the first indication of the resumption of the up trend and above 1.2541 the confirmation." The wave (ii) low from Tuesday remained in tact and the pair has thus far completed four waves up from that low. We need one more thrust higher above the most recent wave iii high of 1.2612 to complete wave v and then some form of an a-b-c correction lower...likely back to the area of the current unfolding wave iv low. At that point we will look to go long this pair. First, however, we need to see the completion of wave v up and the correction lower. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090226CAD.GIF">

    Wednesday, our <b>GBP/USD</b> setup was triggered and stopped out for a 80 pip loss. The pair poked its head above our stop of 1.4600 hitting a high of 1.4608 and then fell off a cliff in the anticipated wave iii decline. Now you see why we hate the pound. The pair should be in the beginning of a wave iv correction higher. The likely target for the end of wave iv is the 38.2% fibo or 1.4337. The pair should not exceed the 1.4373 level or wave iv will overlap wave i which is not allowed...doing so would force us to alter our count. As the pair approaches the 38.2% fibo, we will look to short the pair again with our stop being 1.4376. When we see the setup we will report it here or in an email alert. If we happen to miss it you at least have the game plan.

    Yesterday's setups being stopped out was one of those frustrating days as a trader when your analysis is 100% accurate but your stops are a hair too tight. UUUUUGGG!!!

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090226GBP.GIF">
     
  8. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Thursday, we said that "We are sticking with our current count that the dollar is in a wave (iii) of wave 5 up. Our confidence of this will be raised dramatically when the index gets above the wave (i) high of 88.57." The dollar managed to push slightly higher hitting 88.245 before falling away but did not break above the 88.57 level yet. The churning sideways making higher highs and higher lows is keeping our outlook for a wave (iii) of 5 move higher as our top count. We need to see the index break above the 88.57 level soon to confirm our count. In order to maintain our bullish count the wave (ii) low of 85.81 level must remain in tact. So we continue to expect higher levels for the dollar.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090227USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, we were looking for the <b>EUR/USD</b> to work its way higher in some form of a correction of the decline from the wave ii high. We have labeled the decline a wave (i) and the correction higher a wave (ii). We should be in the early stages of a sub-wave (iii) down of a larger wave (iii) down. We need to see a break below the sub-wave (i) low of 1.2680 to confirm that wave (iii) is in progress. Our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.2679 stop at 1.2760 and a target at 1.2400.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090227EUR.GIF">

    Yesterday, we were looking for the <b>USD/CAD</b> to work its way higher in a wave v to complete five waves up from the wave (ii) low, however, the pair continued to move lower forcing us to alter our count. The best way to count the recent price movement is as another wave (i) up and wave (ii) down. The pair seems to have found support at the 1.2387 level and we remain bullish this pair as long as the 1.2478 level is not breached. We await a five wave advance and we are tentatively viewing the 1.2387 level as a wave .i of an expected five wave advance higher that should not be breached in the current wave .iv correction. We are cautiously bullish as await a five wave advance to confirm the continuation of the up trend. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090227CAD.GIF">

    Thursday, our setups on the <b>GBP/USD</b> were stopped out of our shorts (-36 & -46 pips) on this pair not because analysis was inaccurate but because stops were too tight. Some of you allowed more room in your stops and are up quite nicely on this trade...for those of you it would be advisable to move stops to break even or lock in 30 to 40 pips and move the target to the 1.4100 level. The pair should be working its way down to the 1.4100 level to complete wave v. We will reassess once that level is reached. If we see the setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090227GBP.GIF">
     
  9. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Friday, we said that "the churning sideways making higher highs and higher lows is keeping our outlook for a wave (iii) of 5 move higher as our top count. We need to see the index break above the 88.57 level soon to confirm our count." Well the Dollar index pushed above the 88.57 level in Sunday evenings trading. We are still cautious of this move because the index is sporting a diagonal triangle that we've highlighted with the red trend lines. Diagonals are almost always seen at the end of a move in wave c of a correction or wave 5 of a completed impulsive (five wave) move. So we're not out of the woods yet to call the all clear for a bullish move higher. We need to see a sharp thrust higher out of this wedge to increase our confidence in this move. So we're cautiously bullish as the dollar makes its way higher towards our 90+ target.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090302USD.GIF">

    Friday, our setup on the <b>EUR/USD</b> was triggered placing us short the pair at 1.2679, stop 1.2760 and target 1.2400. As of Sunday evening the pair has made a new low below the 1.2600 level. Currently, our trade is up over 100 pips. We'd like to seen the intensity to the downside increase to confirm that we are in a wave (iii) decline. We are moving our stop to break even to make this a riskless trade others more risk averse may lock in 50 pips since we've exceed 100 pips of open profits. Target remains at 1.2400.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090302EUR.GIF">

    Friday, we were anticipating the <b>USD/CAD</b> to move higher in a wave (iii) advance and we were not disappointed. The wave .i high was not to overlapped by the wave .iv decline and the pair burst higher in what looks to be an expended wave .v of lesser degree of wave (iii). The pair is due for a correction and with stochastic's so over bought it will likely be soon. We will look for an opportunity to jump in on a pullback. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090302CAD.GIF">

    We were looking for the <b>GBP/USD</b> to work its way lower to our original target of 1.4100 to complete five waves down. The pair made it as low as 1,4111 before bouncing hard and closing up by the end of the day. The rise off the low clearly looks corrective, so we can count that move as another wave .i and wave .ii of wave (iii) down. As long as the wave .ii high (1.4365) is not breached we will consider this our top count. If we see the setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090302GBP.GIF">
     
  10. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index continued to work its way higher still within the basic confines of an upward diagonal which is likely terminal for the dollar. The index has managed to chop its way to new highs. This choppy overlapping is indicative of a correction not a wave (iii) impulsive move. We have therefore come up with two alternate counts. One would still have us in a wave 5 up but wave 5 itself would be unfolding as a diagonal with wave (i),(ii) and (iii) in place and wave (iv) (down) and wave (v) (up) still to come. The second one would have the dollar in an irregular wave b (where wave b exceeds the prior high before starting wave c down) of an a-b-c correction. We will give the benefit of the doubt to the first count calling for the continuation of wave (iii) with waves (iv) and (v) starting soon. Still cautiously bullish.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090303USD.GIF">

    Monday, we moved our stop on our open short of the <b>EUR/USD</b> to 1.2635. We are now advocating moving the stop to the 1.2600 level. We patiently await the continuation of wave iii and a decisive move to the downside towards our target of 1.2400 and likely lower.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090303EUR.GIF">

    Regarding the <b>USD/CAD</b>, we have a adjusted the internal count of wave (iii)'s labeling to better reflect the pairs most recent action. We should be at the end of the wave (iii) rise and due for a correction back to the wave .iv level which happens to be the 38.2% fibo (1.2729) of the entire wave (iii) rise from the wave (ii) low. We will look for opportunities to long the pair once we see that wave (iv) correction is near completion. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090303CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the <b>GBP/USD</b> continued lower in our anticipated wave .iii of wave (iii) down. The pair should continue to work its way lower to the next area of support surrounding the 1.3500 level. From the wave .ii high the pair has only completed four waves down so we anticipate one more thrust lower down to the 1.3900 level then a return to 1.4050 level. We will wait for that down up sequence to complete then look to short the pair for the more substantial move down to the 1.3500 and lower levels. If we see the setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090303GBP.GIF">
     
    #10     Mar 2, 2009