Hello, traders! I'm a trader with more than 3-year experience and perform pretty well on Forex. So, I decided to share my own forecast on currency pairs with you. I use price action patterns and support & resistance levels primarily. Hope, it will be helpful.
Prior to the publication of US GDP data, I consider to sell the Australian dollar. AUDUSD has broken 0.7580 local support. In case of retest I’ll get to short-term sales. I’ll look for the entry point at smaller timeframes. Potential movement - 25-40 points.
Today I look at USDCAD. Currencys trading near the 1.3400 resistance level. A pattern of ascending triangle has formed on H1 timeframe . In case of overcoming and retest of 1.3395 level I plan to buy. Potential movement 1.345-1.3475.
EURUSD. Euro got strong support during Friday trading. I plan to wait for the correction to 1.0930-1.0940 demand zone at the moment. The point of entry - at smaller timeframes. Potential movement - to 1.0990.
USDJPY. It’s time for short trades. I’m going to look for the point of entry after the prices will overcome and fix below the 104,850 support level. Potential movement - to 104.40-104.25. Stop can be located slightly above the signal formation. I consider to take profit with the use of trailing stop.
@Alexfx79 , I am afraid you make your life very hard here. Not only are you looking to establish positions against the trend (basically all your calls look to enter counter-trend) but you make the call before your price point is even ever reached. Such calls have a very low probability of succeeding in the medium to long term. Just my 2 cents...
I don't have open mid-term positions currently as markets are very unpredictable (my personal opinion). Moreover, elections in the US increase the uncertainty. I try to trade intraday at the moment. I define key levels on the H1, H4, D1 timeframes. I look for the point of entry, validation and patterns that are clear to me at smaller timeframes: M15, M5. These posts are something like my trading plan for the current trading day, but not for the medium-term trading. I try to trade in the most conservative style. Of course, my forecasts can not always become true as I publish them at the beginning of the trading day. Situation can change for a number of reasons (news, trading activity in the market, etc). In this case, I just don't open a transaction . I also keep track of other currency pairs and try to find a pattern and the entry point. I always try to trade with the trend, but sometimes I can open counter-trend transactions. I think I didn't go against trend on USDCAD. If you open the H4 chart, you'll see an upward trend. I don't use indicators usually, but even the most standard indicators also show us a bullish trend: macd is in the positive zone, 20 MA is above 50 MA.
I thought you would go long when USDCAD gets to 1.3395? What is the point when you are not doing what you said you would do? You said you "always try to trade with the trend" but all your charts and price levels indicate you look to go against the trend. Then you say "I do not use indicators" but in the same sentence you list a number indicators you pay attention to and which basically invalidated your planned trade entry. Just sharing my 2 cents, maybe you want to work on being more consistent between your analysis and your actions. Only after you built confidence in your analysis you can have the backbone to stick to it and execute your plan. Right now it sounds you are standing on very shaky grounds and are thrown around left and right. Just sharing again my 2 cents. Maybe I do not understand your intention of this thread?
Sorry if you misunderstood me, I didn't meant to go long-term The last screenshot shows that the trend goes up, I added indicators to prove that I caught the trend in a right way. As for this thread, I just want to share my thoughts with others, discuss opinions, just like we do now. It's always interesting to communicate to people of my specialty, so it's very good that you wrote your two cents, thank you! I don't mean that you are wrong, but I described clearly (as it seems to me) why that transaction is not counter-trend. it's bullish as we can see on graphics above. I'll notice that I have to write whether my forecast is for short-term or long-term trade. I thought that I could write "long" for "buy", but I didn't Sorry for misunderstanding.