Down $7 again. Russian oil will find some crack into the market eventually. A lot countries will be happy to buy the oil on the cheap. Sanctions rarely work on hot commodities. People need food and energy as essentials. They do not want to go hungry or freeze to death over winter. Wealthy countries can pay $5 or $6 gallon gasoline. But poor countries just can't. War will continue. There will be some compromise to the end. Warring parties are all losers.
Oil supply based on prices is essentially unchanged. I am just thinking that Iran will be let loose of sanctions by the US to bring their oil into the market. Joe Biden is desperate enough to sign another bad deal with Iran. Iran is probably, pretty close to that nuclear missile if not, already. China has been supplying the technology and materials. Russia probably, will assist them as well. As everyone knows, Iran is not a friend of the US. They just fired like 12 missiles at the US consulate in Iraq. Luckily, nobody was hurt. Russia also, heading negotiations with Iran.
Russia can certainly plays the hands in Syria and Iran. Even North Korea if it wants to. If Hell gets loose, all is loose. The West just can't put out the fires if all get ignited all at the same time. Angela Markel was smart to foresee things like this. When both Trump and Markel were gone, the world politics shifts to the left. Both Germans and French can't talk to Putin while they continue to supply weapons to Ukraine. The bridge has been burnt. No matter what, there has to be some communication. Now Biden and Sullivan want to push China to the Russian camp. Then more bridge will be burnt. They are really bad politicians.
There is certainly, a lot of variables at play. Peace talks, according to a woman guest on Fox News yesterday, said peace talks were going well. I do not know how reliable her source is. That could also, be a one more reason oil prices have gone down. If the war ends, the supply of oil will stabilize. Commodities is another matter because a lot of commodities prices are under pressure from demand. The Ukrainian war probably, has disrupted commodities supplies from Ukraine for a while. The immense destruction in Ukraine probably, means commodities supplies from that country will be curtailed for a long while.
All people, politicians, army generals, investors, will have to face the reality. The world just can't push Russia, the 2nd largest nuclear power, to the corner for 20 years or longer. Clearly both Ukraine and Russia want to come to some compromise. Russia wants to hold onto its gains and its Russian language population. Ukraine looks for whatever it can salvage. It is the politicians from the West who continue to prop up the war. It is a very dangerous situation for media to do so. The war will stop. Russia won't be totally defeated. The question is when and how. The world just can't continue to have $100 crude oil forever.
Exited my long oil and commodities positions. Whatever the reasons, it looks very weak and headed down. Still have positions in gold and my short positions on airlines stocks.
War mongers continue to push the war narrative and even encouraging a no fly zone on Cable TV. They want war at all costs, including, even a limited nuclear war.
You guys should share some of your trading gains with me if taking my advice. I guess not the people who I put on "ignore" list. That list keeps growing.